chasfh Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 I'm a terrible, terrible investor—it's practically more like gambling to me—and my losses are legion. I am the only guy in the history of the world to lose money on Microsoft in the 1990s. Even so, I have had a couple of big wins. Notably, I put $5,000 into Netscape in 1995 and sold it a few weeks later at $7,000. Then I put all that in Sun Microsystems and held on. Around 2000 or so, whenever they hit their top and even after it had slud some 30% or so, I sold off and still collected more than $70,000. In my case, though, it was truly blind squirrel nut. I'm sitting on another win here, although not as big as I'd like it to have been. I bought 10 shares of NVDA last May at $313.40/sh, which after the split works out to 100 shares at $31.34—so, some $3,100—as part of a play in AI with some discretionary money into stocks including MU, ORCL, PLTR, IBM, and, funnily, MSFT. NVDA went up as high as $140 yesterday. That's a four-bagger, the company is now the highest valued on the market at over $3T, which seems completely overheated, and I'm thinking, maybe it's time to bail. So yesterday afternoon, I set up a stop limit at 125.10/124.90, meaning, initiate a sell of all shares when it drops to or below 125.10, but only if it stays over 124.90. That way, if the stock has a wild hair moment where it drops to one dollar or something before boomeranging back up, I don't get shook out at that price. NVDA was down yesterday, closing at 130.78, ten dollars off the day's high. This morning's pre-market showed it hovering around 127. Good chance the stop limit order would execute. In my limited and shrinking understanding of technicals, the market likes round numbers to serve as resistance and support. So, I could envision the market getting down to just below 125, a very round number, then turning around and shooting up, which would sell me out at the lowest point. Then I would not be a participant in a new run. So I thought, why not take a bit of a chance here and split the order? I'll set up a stop limit sell for half the shares at 124.10/123.90 (down a dollar from where I had it), to avoid a round number shakeout, and the other half at 119.10/118.90, which would avoid the same kind of shakeout at 120. Well ... this morning, NVDA did go down and down, flirting with the 125 floor before breaking through, and going down as low as 124.30, before turning back around. As of 1028am ET, it's back up around 126 and change. So, based on my changes, instead of selling the entire lot out at 125, per my instructions before the market opened, I still own 100% of my NVDA because I had changed those instructions. I think in a perfect world, NVDA goes back up to 140+, then I reestablish my stop limit for something like 129.10/128.90, and I clear a few hundred more dollars. Fact is, though, even if it dives later today and both sells are triggered, I still have almost quadrupled my little investment from $3,100 to more than $12,000, taxed at 15% instead of as income. So even though I'm not getting maximum points for style in that scenario, I can still pay for the housepainting job we're getting done right now with the win. This is the "game" part of the game. And, also, why I don't gamble unless there's only house money involved. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1776 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Reminds me of my foray into the 1990’s market rise and 2000 crash. Lots of good war stories have been written about that time period in the markets. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 5 minutes ago, 1776 said: Reminds me of my foray into the 1990’s market rise and 2000 crash. Lots of good war stories have been written about that time period in the markets. I have too many stories about stupid moves and big losses, so many that if I started recounting them here, I might have to go into therapy to cope. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Low cost index funds, diversify some, set and forget. Easy peazy and you come out ahead. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1776 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 We are entirely in mutual funds these days and have been for some time. However, I do see individual stocks as tempting. About a year ago I considered selling one of the funds and buying five individual stocks. They were all at good buy points. M* had them at 5 star stocks, which is to say they were well below fair value. I did all the homework on each stock I decided to go with. They were: Pfizer (still in buy territory), Truist, Duke Energy, Realty Income, and Gilead Science. All these stocks pay a good dividend and at the same time offered a good upside on price appreciation. I never sold the fund for the sake of buying my mini portfolio. Pfizer is the only one that hasn’t moved up much since my decision. I still look at that as a good long term buy. Their top scientist left the company last week so that does give me some pause. Buying and trading individual stocks require a bit of effort that I don’t have to commit to with a boring mutual fund. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Screwball Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 7 hours ago, Edman85 said: Low cost index funds, diversify some, set and forget. Easy peazy and you come out ahead. Wall Street says thank you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 7 hours ago, Screwball said: Wall Street says thank you Nah, they thank the people who try to beat them, or the people who pay them to manage their portfolios. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 I do the low cost index funds too, I have probably 7 or 8 in vanguard. only individual stocks I have are for 2 companies I worked for, pretty cool investments as they're bought on discount but I agree with the above notion @1776 said, I don't have the time for individual company research. And I'd add that if I did have the time, I don't think I'd have the expertise to do the smart move based off that research. That pfizer scientist thing is a good example. At this point I just dollar cost average into the mutual funds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Index funds are great for the investor. The only knock against them is a technical one, and that is as the % of the market in index funds has grown, it makes the total market a little more volatile, because all the index funds make pretty much the same funds adjustments at the same time since they all use similar algorithms, so I've seem some market insiders opine against them. But as long as they are available, they are a good choice for a lot of investors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 I will say I read a glowing article about AJG in Barron's, did some cursory research on it, and ended up putting a few bills in it, and I have definitely not been disappointed, nor do I expect to be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1776 Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Mr. Market was in a good mood today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 On 7/16/2024 at 1:24 PM, gehringer_2 said: Index funds are great for the investor. The only knock against them is a technical one, and that is as the % of the market in index funds has grown, it makes the total market a little more volatile, because all the index funds make pretty much the same funds adjustments at the same time since they all use similar algorithms, so I've seem some market insiders opine against them. But as long as they are available, they are a good choice for a lot of investors. The financial industry hates them for obvious reasons, but I think they are the best choice for the average investor who doesn't have a lot of time to research stocks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 I never bothered with indiviual stocks other than a "token" investment in a company I might be working for. The reason is I figure by the time I am aware of some information that would help.... the insiders and experts have already figured it out and I missed the opportunity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 My concern at this stage of my life is whether I'm too much in equities. I would use planned retirement date funds in employer 401ks to become more conservative as retirement approaches but all investing after 401ks is in stocks except some Inflation bonds I bought a couple few years ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1776 Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 Myself included, I believe there are several Vanguard account holders that comment here. The link below is an announcement that VG has a new CEO effective this month. Historically Vanguard filled their CEO chair with inside people. The new CEO comes over from Blackrock. https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/who-we-are/pressroom/press-release-vanguard-announces-appointment-salim-ramji-new-ceo-05142024.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 On 7/18/2024 at 8:13 AM, pfife said: My concern at this stage of my life is whether I'm too much in equities. I would use planned retirement date funds in employer 401ks to become more conservative as retirement approaches but all investing after 401ks is in stocks except some Inflation bonds I bought a couple few years ago. I am about 50/50 which is probably about right for my age (61) but I still worry about a crash prior to the time I am required to make withdrawls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1776 Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 The NASDAQ is getting crushed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 Lost in the cacophony of politics news filling the cycle, was yesterdays PCE report. From Barron's: Quote The central bank’s preferred gauge of prices—the personal-consumption expenditures, or PCE, price index—confirmed that inflation continues to close in on the central bank’s 2% annual target. Here's a look at the June PCE price index report: Headline: 0.1% month-over-month increases and a 2.5% year-over-year increase Core: 0.2% month-over-month increase and a 2.6% year-over-year increase Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Ouch. Quote Intel to cut 15% jobs, suspend dividend in turnaround push; shares plummet -https://www.reuters.com/technology/intel-forecasts-third-quarter-revenue-below-estimates-cut-15-jobs-2024-08-01/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Screwball Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Actions to Accelerate our Progress - from INTC (official release best I can tell) What a long winded pile of typical corporate horse****. Stock getting pounded after hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 20 minutes ago, Screwball said: Actions to Accelerate our Progress - from INTC (official release best I can tell) What a long winded pile of typical corporate horse****. Stock getting pounded after hours. the street will love the cost cutting, but if their route back to relevance is investment to catch up to TMSC and they cut thier CapEx plans to chase quarterly valuation, they are punching their ticket to being IBM V2.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Screwball Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Job growth totals 114,000 in July, much less than expected, as unemployment rate rises to 4.3% U-6 at 7.8% Full BLS report; Employment Situation News Release @ 8:30am today Market not happy with AMZN (-11%), INTC (-27%). DOW -800, S&P -127, NASDAQ - 500 Your move Powell and Co. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hongbit Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 17 minutes ago, Screwball said: Your move Powell and Co. 25bps cut was expected in September. I think 50bps is now on the table with possibly more to follow in December Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigeraholic1 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 17 minutes ago, Screwball said: Job growth totals 114,000 in July, much less than expected, as unemployment rate rises to 4.3% U-6 at 7.8% Full BLS report; Employment Situation News Release @ 8:30am today Market not happy with AMZN (-11%), INTC (-27%). DOW -800, S&P -127, NASDAQ - 500 Your move Powell and Co. Economy cooling off. Nobody has any extra cash. Housing market stalled, interests rates at a stupid 6.77% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hongbit Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 (edited) On top of today’s soft numbers, the BLS revised their reports lower from the last two months. You know, the strong numbers that everyone got excited about. June was overstated by 27k or roughly 13%. May numbers were revised for a 2nd time after they already revised them last month. The May numbers were initially 272k and now it turns out the real number was 216k. That’s an insane 56k miss that they continue to play off as accepted error in their polling process. There’s no reason to believe that these soft numbers from July won’t be revised even lower in the next few reports. Edited August 2 by Hongbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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