Investing

[Tigeraholic1]

48 minutes ago, Screwball said:

One can always read the actual report;

From the BLS: BLS Employment report - released today at 8:30 am

At the very top;

  ______________________________________________________________________________________________
 |												|
 |                                  Hurricanes Helene and Milton				|
 |												|
 | October data from the household and establishment surveys are the first collected since	|
 | Hurricanes Helene and Milton struck the United States. These hurricanes caused severe	|
 | damage in the southeast portion of the country. See the notes at the end of this news	|
 | release for more information.								|
 |______________________________________________________________________________________________|

  At the end;

 ______________________________________________________________________________________________
 |												|
 |                                Hurricanes Helene and Milton 				        |
 |												|
 | Hurricane Helene made landfall on Florida’s Gulf Coast on September 26, 2024, and then	|
 | tracked north into several other states. This was before the October reference periods for	|
 | both the household and establishment surveys. 						|
 | 												|
 | Hurricane Milton struck Florida on October 9, 2024, during the reference periods for both	|
 | surveys. Prior to the storm’s landfall, there were large-scale evacuations of Florida	|
 | residents.											|
 |												|
 | In October, the household survey was conducted largely according to standard procedures,	|
 | and response rates were within normal ranges.						|
 |												|
 | The initial establishment survey collection rate for October was well below average.		|
 | However, collection rates were similar in storm-affected areas and unaffected areas. A	|
 | larger influence on the October collection rate for establishment data was the timing and	|
 | length of the collection period. This period, which can range from 10 to 16 days, lasted	|
 | 10 days in October and was completed several days before the end of the month. 		|
 |												|
 | No changes were made to either the establishment or household survey estimation procedures	|
 | for the October data. It is likely that payroll employment estimates in some industries	|
 | were affected by the hurricanes; however, it is not possible to quantify the net effect on	|
 | the over-the-month change in national employment, hours, or earnings estimates because the	|
 | establishment survey is not designed to isolate effects from extreme weather events. There	|
 | was no discernible effect on the national unemployment rate from the household survey. 	|
 |												|
 | For information on how unusually severe weather can affect employment and hours estimates,	|
 | see the Frequently Asked Questions section of this news release. 				|
 |												|
 | BLS will release the state estimates of employment and unemployment for October on		|
 | November 19, 2024, at 10:00 a.m. (ET).							|
 |______________________________________________________________________________________________|

U-6 at 7.7 percent (see table A-15). No matter how you slice it, a dismal report.

 

Most folks here wear horse blinders unless it makes their argument look legit.

[Hongbit]

1 hour ago, Screwball said:

One can always read the actual report;

From the BLS: BLS Employment report - released today at 8:30 am

oyment for October on | | November 19, 2024, at 10:00 a.m. (ET). | |______________________________________________________________________________________________|

U-6 at 7.7 percent (see table A-15). No matter how you slice it, a dismal report.

 

Another sneaky trick the BLS uses to deceive is rounding the data. 

The rounded Unemployment Rate reported and gobbled by media was 4.1% which was flat from last month.   

September’s actual number was 4.051 which they rounded all the way to 4.1% This month’s actual number was 4.14 which they rounded down.   So the reality is that unemployment rate rose by nearly a tenth instead of flat as reported.

[Screwball]

The U-7 is a better indicator than the U-3, which is the 4.1. Until the next report and various revisions.

[Screwball]

52 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

Most folks here wear horse blinders unless it makes their argument look legit.

I read people on the net blaming that and the Boeing thing. It doesn't matter, the numbers are what they are. And look at the market reaction - booming stocks today - bad news is good news. JaPo to the rescue. When you have nothing but a printer....

[Tiger337]

21 hours ago, Screwball said:

I read people on the net blaming that and the Boeing thing. It doesn't matter, the numbers are what they are. And look at the market reaction - booming stocks today - bad news is good news. JaPo to the rescue. When you have nothing but a printer....

As you know, the printing money thing has nothing to do with Harris, Tump or Biden.  Neither of them caused the problem and neither of them will fix it as long as Wall Street benefits.    

[Screwball]

25 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

As you know, the printing money thing has nothing to do with Harris, Tump or Biden.  Neither of them caused the problem and neither of them will fix it as long as Wall Street benefits.    

Incorrect. Monetization of debt starts with spending. Spending starts in congress. The Fed couldn't monetize debt unless debt is issued (government bonds of some type). Wall Street benefits no matter what as they are the exchange that handles the transactions (bond auctions) and get the money first.

All these inept assholes that's inhabited congress for the last X amount of years are at fault, including the two dip****s we have today.

[Tiger337]

13 minutes ago, Screwball said:

Incorrect. Monetization of debt starts with spending. Spending starts in congress. The Fed couldn't monetize debt unless debt is issued (government bonds of some type). Wall Street benefits no matter what as they are the exchange that handles the transactions (bond auctions) and get the money first.

All these inept assholes that's inhabited congress for the last X amount of years are at fault, including the two dip****s we have today.

So, which recent president hasn't overspent?  Which one didn't contribute substantially to the debt? Which one genuinely tried to fix the problem?  There have been congresspeople that talked about debt, but nobody has really tried to do anything about it.  

Edited November 2, 2024 by Tiger337

[gehringer_2]

SB has a point. The Fed is a reactive operator and one of the things they react to is what the government is doing in fiscal policy. For example, Ben Bernanke was completely up front about the fact that the Fed started doing QE because they felt that government fiscal policy after the crash was too restrictive to prevent deflation, and in testimony to Congress told them that fiscal stimulus would be more effective and reach a broader segment of the population but if that Congress wouldn't act (and they didn't) the Fed was going to do QE even if the benefits accrued more narrowly to the capital class than fiscal stimulus would have (and it did). Conversely, when governments around the world started pumping out fiscal stimulus to keep things afloat when Covid hit, that was a large factor in creating the inflation that led the Fed to raise interest rates and start doing QT to pull back on money supply.

So there is linkage, but it's indirect. The Federal government is the 800# gorilla in the economy so what it does will always affect what the Fed does. You just don't necessarily know how the Fed will react, only that they are taking fiscal policy as an input to what they do.

Edited November 2, 2024 by gehringer_2

[Screwball]

10 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

So, which recent president hasn't overspent?  Which one didn't contribute substantially to the debt? Which one genuinely tried to fix the problem?  There have been congresspeople that talked about debt, but nobody has really tried to do anything about it.  

Looks to me like non of them are worth a **** at fixing it. But they don't want to, never have. More money, more profit, more kickbacks. A self-licking ice cream cone for the money whores and bribe takers. What's not to like?

[Tiger337]

1 minute ago, Screwball said:

Looks to me like non of them are worth a **** at fixing it. But they don't want to, never have. More money, more profit, more kickbacks. A self-licking ice cream cone for the money whores and bribe takers. What's not to like?

Yes, I didn't explain myself in my original post.  I figured it was kind of given in this thread that spending => debt ==> printing which is why I just skipped to the printing part.  

[Screwball]

1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

SB has a point. The Fed is a reactive operator and one of the things they react to is what the government is doing in fiscal policy. For example, Ben Bernanke was completely up front about the fact that the Fed started doing QE because they felt that government fiscal policy after the crash was too restrictive, and in testimony to Congress told them that fiscal stimulus would be more effective and reach a broader segment of the population but if that Congress wouldn't act (and they didn't) the Fed was going to do QE even if the benefits accrued more narrowly to the capital class than fiscal stimulus would have (and it did). Conversely, when governments around the world started pumping out fiscal stimulus to keep things afloat when Covid hit, that was a large factor in creating the inflation that led the Fed to raise interest rates and start doing QT. 

So there is linkage, but it's indirect. The Federal government is the 800# gorilla in the economy so what it does will always affect what the Fed does. You just don't necessarily know how the Fed will react, only that they are taking fiscal policy as an big input to their decisions. 

Yes we do, they buy the debt in whatever form is issued.  The FOMC meets every two months and reports what they will do and how. Wall Street loves this because they can frontrun the Fed. No money easier than that, other than what interest they make on reserves (which is our debt). Great gig if you can get it.

On the other hand, believing in the Fed people is another story. They should have little to no credibility. Ben "the bernak" Bernanke of "the subprime market is contained" turned out to be one of the worse statements ever - just before the market crashed in 2008.

This Day In Market History: Ben Bernanke Tells Congress Housing Crisis Is Likely 'Contained'

Thanks asshole, and many have never recovered.

[1776]

Nvidia is replacing rival chipmaker Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a shakeup to the blue-chip index that reflects the boom in artificial intelligence and a major shift in the semiconductor industry. The switch will take place on Nov. 8.

 

[gehringer_2]

33 minutes ago, 1776 said:

Nvidia is replacing rival chipmaker Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a shakeup to the blue-chip index that reflects the boom in artificial intelligence and a major shift in the semiconductor industry. The switch will take place on Nov. 8.

 

DJIA doesn't like downers. It will be interesting to see how long NVidia can maintain it's position. It's a volatile industry where the possibility of getting leap-froged is always at hand. Plus it's not hard to imagine the total market for AI processors hitting an abrupt plateau once the initial build out phase is over. We shall see. I took my profits on NVidia a while ago. Certainly missed some of the run by cashing out when I did but it's too rich for my blood at this point.

[Screwball]

They've been doing this for years. Move companies in and out of indexes. Pumps up the "headline" numbers for the index and Bubblevision, and tons of money for Wall Street via legal fees and arbitrage on market prices. The primary market us suckers don't get to play in.

It's a big club and you ain't in it.

[Deleterious]

NVIDIA just overtook Apple for the world's largest company by market cap. 

I'm guessing with their move to the DIIA a bunch of funds had to buy it and that drove the price up a bit.

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, Deleterious said:

NVIDIA just overtook Apple for the world's largest company by market cap. 

I'm guessing with their move to the DIIA a bunch of funds had to buy it and that drove the price up a bit.

that's the critique of index funds; good for the investor, not always so good for the market.

[chasfh]

I tripled my investment in NVDA in a little more than a year and got out with high four figures in my pocket. Not a bad move. I stand by my sell.

I'm doing even better with PLTR, and I'm hanging onto that one for the super long haul.

[gehringer_2]

47 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I tripled my investment in NVDA in a little more than a year and got out with high four figures in my pocket. Not a bad move. I stand by my sell.

I'm doing even better with PLTR, and I'm hanging onto that one for the super long haul.

well played.

[Hongbit]

5 hours ago, chasfh said:

I tripled my investment in NVDA in a little more than a year and got out with high four figures in my pocket. Not a bad move. I stand by my sell.

I'm doing even better with PLTR, and I'm hanging onto that one for the super long haul.

After you invest in these companies do you get a special code that can be used to save yourself when the robot revolution starts?

Your support should at least let you be spared in the first wave of human exterminations.  

[chasfh]

7 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

After you invest in these companies do you get a special code that can be used to save yourself when the robot revolution starts?

Your support should at least let you be spared in the first wave of human exterminations.  

I definitely want to go in the first wave, since the living will envy the dead.

[Tiger337]

The markets seem to love the election result.  S&P 500 up 2%

[1776]

36 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

The markets seem to love the election result.  S&P 500 up 2%

I’d guess this is one piece of the reason. Regaining control of the Senate as well. 
 

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 included significant changes to the tax code. Many of these changes were enacted on a temporary basis and are set to expire at the end of 2025. Former President Donald Trump favors extending all the expiring provisions. Vice President Kamala Harris hasn’t been specific, but says she opposes any tax increases on people making less than $400,000, which implies extending some provisions of the TCJA.   

[Hongbit]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

The markets seem to love the election result.  S&P 500 up 2%

The markets hate uncertainty.   We know for certain who the president will be and there won’t be any issues with transfer of power.  

[Deleterious]

Yeah.  Quite a few people had money parked on the side.  Now they know who is leading the country the next 4 years they can put that cash to work.

FWIW, it also would have popped if Harris was elected.  The cash might have gone into different companies, but it still would have returned to the market.  

[Netnerd]

Wall Street is happy this morning. How about Chicago Board of Trade? I’m hearing nervous news about ag commodities and possible tariffs. Will China buy Iowa soybeans? Also uncertainty about labor is starting to surface in farm economy outlooks.