Investing

[CMRivdogs]

https://bsky.app/profile/cnn.com/post/3lcy6bwurzs2w
 

A federal judge has blocked Kroger's $25 billion mega-merger with Albertsons, halting what would have been the largest supermarket merger in history.

[gehringer_2]

21 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

https://bsky.app/profile/cnn.com/post/3lcy6bwurzs2w
 

 

A federal judge has blocked Kroger's $25 billion mega-merger with Albertsons, halting what would have been the largest supermarket merger in history.

🎉🎊🎇

[Screwball]

Unrelated, but I've always wondered how much waste grocery stores have to deal with. The bottom line type stuff.

I'm also thankful for self checkouts because I triple bag due to having a cat.

ON EDIT: Restaurants might be worse.

Edited December 11, 2024 by Screwball

[CMRivdogs]

33 minutes ago, Screwball said:

Unrelated, but I've always wondered how much waste grocery stores have to deal with. The bottom line type stuff.

I'm also thankful for self checkouts because I triple bag due to having a cat.

ON EDIT: Restaurants might be worse.

I spent a bit of time riding with Forgotten Harvest in Metro Detroit. they collect food from grocery stores and some restaurants. This was about 15 years ago and there was a significant amount of food, depending on store. Most of it was stuff like bread, produce and a bit of meat. According to their website they collect over 42 million pounds of food to redistribute to local food distribution groups.  Gleaners website puts their number around 50 million pounds of food.

That doesn't count the amount of food groceries and restaurants dump.

Edited December 11, 2024 by CMRivdogs

[Screwball]

52 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

I spent a bit of time riding with Forgotten Harvest in Metro Detroit. they collect food from grocery stores and some restaurants. This was about 15 years ago and there was a significant amount of food, depending on store. Most of it was stuff like bread, produce and a bit of meat. According to their website they collect over 42 million pounds of food to redistribute to local food distribution groups.  Gleaners website puts their number around 50 million pounds of food.

That doesn't count the amount of food groceries and restaurants dump.

I have no facts, but I think that goes on in many places. In the last couple of years here in Cornhole we now have...I don't know what to call it - a "soup kitchen." I know the local groceries, various stores, and restaurants donate. A wonderful thing, and good on them.

I can't help but think when I walk into a grocery store how much inventory there is and how often it turns over. Especially produce, meats, bakery, and dairy. Almost everything has a shelf life, no pun intended.

Unless you look in my pantry. 🙂

Edited December 11, 2024 by Screwball

[CMRivdogs]

12 minutes ago, Screwball said:

I have no facts, but I think that goes on in many places. In the last couple of years here in Cornhole we now have...I don't know what to call it - a "soup kitchen." I know the local groceries, various stores, and restaurants donate. A wonderful thing, and good on them.

I can't help but think when I walk into a grocery store how much inventory there is and how often it turns over. Especially produce, meats, bakery, and dairy. Almost everything has a shelf life, no pun intended.

Unless you look in my pantry. 🙂

BTW there are tax incentives for grocery stores and restaurants to donate out of date or what we call waste food items. i think its easier with the grocery stores, a lot of what we received from restaurants was not really usable. 

https://chlpi.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Virginia-State-Fact-Sheet-Tax-Incentives-2023-Reenactment-and-Amendment.pdf

[gehringer_2]

19 minutes ago, Screwball said:

I have no facts, but I think that goes on in many places. In the last couple of years here in Cornhole we now have...I don't know what to call it - a "soup kitchen." I know the local groceries, various stores, and restaurants donate. A wonderful thing, and good on them.

I can't help but think when I walk into a grocery store how much inventory there is and how often it turns over. Especially produce, meats, bakery, and dairy. Almost everything has a shelf life, no pun intended.

Unless you look in my pantry. 🙂

I wonder how much computerized order systems have been able to cut down on grocery store waste? You would think it has to have had a huge impact to be able to track and correlate sales histories and real time product movement on a store by store basis.

Edited December 11, 2024 by gehringer_2

[Screwball]

2 minutes ago, CMRivdogs said:

BTW there are tax incentives for grocery stores and restaurants to donate out of date or what we call waste food items. i think its easier with the grocery stores, a lot of what we received from restaurants was not really usable. 

https://chlpi.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Virginia-State-Fact-Sheet-Tax-Incentives-2023-Reenactment-and-Amendment.pdf

That's a 5 page document. I got about a page and a half in. What a perfect example of the ****edupness of our world.

[Screwball]

2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I wonder how much computerized order systems have been able to cut down on grocery store waste? You would think it has to have had a huge impact to be able to track and correlate sales histories and real time product movement on a store by store basis.

Without a doubt. And probably tell us the cabbage in aisle G17 was bad 3 days ago. But it's still there. I'm sure they are efficient, but what about waste.

[gehringer_2]

1 minute ago, Screwball said:

And probably tell us the cabbage in aisle G17 was bad 3 days ago

🤢

[Deleterious]

We have almost zero waste.  Most well run restaurants will be the same way. 

Some exceptions.  First one is when you first open a new place.  Traffic is so sporadic and unpredictable.  We have nights we do $1,000 and the next day do $30,000.  You have to be ready for the big night because you generally only get one shot with a new customer.  If they come in and half your menu is 86'd they wont give you a second shot normally.

Second is weather.  If you normally do 1200 people on a certain night and there is a snow/ice storm and 50 people show up.  Well, its a bad time.  

After about a year you really see waste drop off to nothing.  Chefs have enough data on how busy you are and that obviously helps them on supply orders.  Plus, your staff is fully trained up and that always equals less waste.  We also do 50% profit sharing and let me tell ya, that really makes your staff pay attention to detail when the waste is coming out of their own pocket basically.

We also do a staff/family meal every day.  So on the odd chance we do have some waste, we make it available to the group doing family meal that day.  

As far as donating, we tried.   Its too sporadic for them to dedicate a volunteer to pick things up, etc.  So we implemented a program that lets our employees volunteer 5 hours a month and we pay them for it.  Originally that was just for food banks but now we let them do it for most charities.  We aren't going to pay them to donate time at the local right wing militia or some free Hamas group.  Religious charities are fine, just not the extreme ones.  Unfortunately, not a lot of employees take advantage of this.

 

 

[oblong]

8 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

We have almost zero waste.  Most well run restaurants will be the same way. 

Some exceptions.  First one is when you first open a new place.  Traffic is so sporadic and unpredictable.  We have nights we do $1,000 and the next day do $30,000.  You have to be ready for the big night because you generally only get one shot with a new customer.  If they come in and half your menu is 86'd they wont give you a second shot normally.

Second is weather.  If you normally do 1200 people on a certain night and there is a snow/ice storm and 50 people show up.  Well, its a bad time.  

After about a year you really see waste drop off to nothing.  Chefs have enough data on how busy you are and that obviously helps them on supply orders.  Plus, your staff is fully trained up and that always equals less waste.  We also do 50% profit sharing and let me tell ya, that really makes your staff pay attention to detail when the waste is coming out of their own pocket basically.

We also do a staff/family meal every day.  So on the odd chance we do have some waste, we make it available to the group doing family meal that day.  

As far as donating, we tried.   Its too sporadic for them to dedicate a volunteer to pick things up, etc.  So we implemented a program that lets our employees volunteer 5 hours a month and we pay them for it.  Originally that was just for food banks but now we let them do it for most charities.  We aren't going to pay them to donate time at the local right wing militia or some free Hamas group.  Religious charities are fine, just not the extreme ones.  Unfortunately, not a lot of employees take advantage of this.

 

 

When I worked fast food for a franchise in the early 90's they would write down the previous year's take on the big deks calendar, as a predictor for what we could expect.  This was a family run KFC where the grandma got the franchise from the Colonel himself so it had been in that location for decades.  Outside of weather issues, it was always within 10% of last year.  And it was just a case of "Well Mondays are slow, then it builds up..."  There was variation during the week day to day that remained that way from year to year. That was an amazing thing to this 18 year old's eyes.

Do you see that in your restaurants today?  

[CMRivdogs]

11 minutes ago, oblong said:

When I worked fast food for a franchise in the early 90's they would write down the previous year's take on the big deks calendar, as a predictor for what we could expect.  This was a family run KFC where the grandma got the franchise from the Colonel himself so it had been in that location for decades.  Outside of weather issues, it was always within 10% of last year.  And it was just a case of "Well Mondays are slow, then it builds up..."  There was variation during the week day to day that remained that way from year to year. That was an amazing thing to this 18 year old's eyes.

Do you see that in your restaurants today?  

We did something similar when I worked at Arby’s in the late ‘70s. I know we had hourly estimates from previous years as well. That would serve as a guide as to when to put the “beef loaves” in the oven. They’d take about 3 hours to properly cook. 
 

It would also serve as an ordering guide. The guys that owned the franchise also owned a couple of steak places at the time and incorporated some of the practices into the several franchises they owned in the area

[Deleterious]

46 minutes ago, oblong said:

When I worked fast food for a franchise in the early 90's they would write down the previous year's take on the big deks calendar, as a predictor for what we could expect.  This was a family run KFC where the grandma got the franchise from the Colonel himself so it had been in that location for decades.  Outside of weather issues, it was always within 10% of last year.  And it was just a case of "Well Mondays are slow, then it builds up..."  There was variation during the week day to day that remained that way from year to year. That was an amazing thing to this 18 year old's eyes.

Do you see that in your restaurants today?  

Yep, past data is huge.  We have spreadsheets that incorporate the past 3 years of sales if available.  We give more weight to last year than 2 years ago.  And more to 2 years ago then 3.  It gives us a baseline for supplies and staffing on individual nights.

Your location and community calendar are also important.  We have a couple of locations close to the town center.  So we need to know is there a tree lighting ceremony, parade, festival, etc.  So we can staff up.  Close to a few high schools, so we need to know are 8 schools coming in this weekend for a big track meet or wrestling meet?  That is a lot of parents that will want to eat.  Is there a big craft show at the high school this weekend?  Basically we need to know about anything that brings more people than normal to the area so we are ready for the spike.  

[chasfh]

15 hours ago, Screwball said:

Unrelated, but I've always wondered how much waste grocery stores have to deal with. The bottom line type stuff.

I'm also thankful for self checkouts because I triple bag due to having a cat.

ON EDIT: Restaurants might be worse.

Funny you say this now because just this past weekend, I was talking with the produce manager at our local Mariano's, a Kroger brand, with whom I have a weekly chatting relationship.

They have historically carried the Driscoll-brand raspberries in small and large sizes, which are usually pretty good, but for the last month they've been going with a different off-brand for the large size, and they are always super sour, which I guess means they are picked before they are ripe and therefore sell for less at wholesale. They cost $4.99 in the store. Mariano's is still carrying the small size in Driscoll, which are half the volume and cost $3.99. We got burned on the sour brand once and now I always taste-test before I buy, but nowadays I am spending $7.98 for two smalls instead of $4.99 for one large. That's how different they are in quality.

Anyway, I asked the produce manager whether they're throwing away a lot of these off-brand raspberries and he basically answered, aw, hell yeah, we do. And I asked whether they threw away as much of the Driscolls when they were in the large size, and he said basically, nah, not nearly as much. I asked why and he said people just stopped buying the off-brand. I asked why Mariano's doesn't go back to stocking the Driscoll in the large size, and he smiled and did the "holding up his hand and rubbing his thumb back and forth against his first two fingers" thing.

This was another data point supporting my hypothesis that Mariano's makes more money putting out ****ty product for cheaper and just throwing away the unsold product than they do putting out the good brand at a higher price and selling it through more. It's their actual strategy to put out what they know is a substandard product based on their profit target today, which by definition disregards the costs of damaging their reputation in the eyes of their customers for continually putting out what they know is a substandard product.

They also put out mushrooms that are slimy from the minute you open the package, despite the sell-by date. Thank god the USDA doesn't regulate sell-by dates so that Kroger won't cause my S&P 500 mutual fund to drop in value.

 

Edited December 11, 2024 by chasfh

[Screwball]

4 hours ago, Deleterious said:

We have almost zero waste.  Most well run restaurants will be the same way. 

Some exceptions.  First one is when you first open a new place.  Traffic is so sporadic and unpredictable.  We have nights we do $1,000 and the next day do $30,000.  You have to be ready for the big night because you generally only get one shot with a new customer.  If they come in and half your menu is 86'd they wont give you a second shot normally.

Second is weather.  If you normally do 1200 people on a certain night and there is a snow/ice storm and 50 people show up.  Well, its a bad time.  

After about a year you really see waste drop off to nothing.  Chefs have enough data on how busy you are and that obviously helps them on supply orders.  Plus, your staff is fully trained up and that always equals less waste.  We also do 50% profit sharing and let me tell ya, that really makes your staff pay attention to detail when the waste is coming out of their own pocket basically.

We also do a staff/family meal every day.  So on the odd chance we do have some waste, we make it available to the group doing family meal that day.  

As far as donating, we tried.   Its too sporadic for them to dedicate a volunteer to pick things up, etc.  So we implemented a program that lets our employees volunteer 5 hours a month and we pay them for it.  Originally that was just for food banks but now we let them do it for most charities.  We aren't going to pay them to donate time at the local right wing militia or some free Hamas group.  Religious charities are fine, just not the extreme ones.  Unfortunately, not a lot of employees take advantage of this.

 

 

Good stuff, thanks. I hoped you would chime in.

But you did say at the top "Most well run restaurants will be the same way." That is probably key. In my experience, which was not restaurants per se, but clubs, bowling alleys, and bars, the waste was always a problem. They were not very good at managing it. And I'm not sure how many places are well run today.

I ran into this with charity events too. You have a dinner, and maybe a band at a club you rented. Figure you can bring in 500 people. It snows and 50 show up - you are pretty much screwed. But that's a different thing so doesn't apply. But an example of potential problems. But you lose your ass and throw out a bunch of food. It has to be difficult because you never know what you are going to get.

[Screwball]

1 minute ago, Screwball said:

Good stuff, thanks. I hoped you would chime in.

But you did say at the top "Most well run restaurants will be the same way." That is probably key. In my experience, which was not restaurants per se, but clubs, bowling alleys, and bars, the waste was always a problem. They were not very good at managing it. And I'm not sure how many places are well run today.

I ran into this with charity events too. You have a dinner, and maybe a band at a club you rented. Figure you can bring in 500 people. It snows and 50 show up - you are pretty much screwed. But that's a different thing so doesn't apply. But an example of potential problems. But you lose your ass and throw out a bunch of food. It has to be difficult because you never know what you are going to get.

Go long saltpeter

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Screwball said:

Go long saltpeter

with or without the sulphur and charcoal?

[Screwball]

I'm old enough to remember going down to West Virginia to grandma's house. She was a treat. Hated me and dad. Cooked on a pot belly stove, which also served as a heat source. Fridge need a block of ice which was delivered to the door. This was even in town, a little burg in the hills.

Next door neighbor, uncle Ed, had a huge garden. He also used to take a part of a pig and hang it in a root cellar rubbing it down with salt over months. That was the holiday feast. Pies made with lard and the sides from the garden. They all grew up during the depression, but I'm not sure the hillbilly's even knew it.

They were really good with corn too - especially if they put a fire under it. 🙂

[Screwball]

Full report here;

Producer Price Index News Release - from the BLS

The CPI is what we pay for things.

The PPI is what is payed to make things.

And the Fed is expected to lower rates on December 18th.

Why?

[Hongbit]

20 minutes ago, Screwball said:

Full report here;

Producer Price Index News Release - from the BLS

The CPI is what we pay for things.

The PPI is what is payed to make things.

And the Fed is expected to lower rates on December 18th.

Why?

You know that headlines don’t tell the full story.    A few outliers in things like eggs, fruits, and hotels boosted numbers.  Shelter which makes up 1/3 of the index was actually pretty good.   

[Tigeraholic1]

48 minutes ago, Screwball said:

Full report here;

Producer Price Index News Release - from the BLS

The CPI is what we pay for things.

The PPI is what is payed to make things.

And the Fed is expected to lower rates on December 18th.

Why?

[Tiger337]

4 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

This particular thread tries to stay away from political trolling.  Take it to the election threads.  

[Screwball]

23 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

You know that headlines don’t tell the full story.    A few outliers in things like eggs, fruits, and hotels boosted numbers.  Shelter which makes up 1/3 of the index was actually pretty good.   

Shelter is not part of the PPI. It is in the CPI. That said, the CPI report came out the other day and the index for shelter rose 0.3 percent. Rent of primary residence rose 0.2 percent and owners’ equivalent rent was up 0.2 percent.

Year over year (a few examples);

CPI: 2.7 percent

CPI Excluding Food and Energy: 3.3 percent

Rent: 4.4 percent

Shelter: 4.7 percent

Food and Beverages: 2.3 percent

Medical Care Services: 3.7 Percent

[gehringer_2]

14 minutes ago, Screwball said:

Shelter is not part of the PPI. It is in the CPI. That said, the CPI report came out the other day and the index for shelter rose 0.3 percent. Rent of primary residence rose 0.2 percent and owners’ equivalent rent was up 0.2 percent.

Year over year (a few examples);

CPI: 2.7 percent

CPI Excluding Food and Energy: 3.3 percent

Rent: 4.4 percent

Shelter: 4.7 percent

Food and Beverages: 2.3 percent

Medical Care Services: 3.7 Percent

We are in a weird place. Everyone complaining about the economy being so terrible but as a whole the American Consumer is spending like a drunken sailor - that's going to make it harder to push inflation lower - and just more so if the Fed keeps easing.  I think the Fed is still taking some money out of circulation with 'QT'