Investing

[Screwball]

Adding:

Way up thread Enron and Jeff Skilling were mentioned. This crypto stuff kind of reminds me of that. IMO, Skilling was ahead of his time when it came to "financial innovation" which is why he is on my Mt. Rushmore of financial criminals.

It's about creating something out of nothing. Of course, in this case, it seems the mining uses a whole bunch of energy, so there is that. At the same time, who does it benefit? Not society in general, at least not yet, if you want to look at that angle. As an alternative means of exchange to be clear.

All crazy stuff. I don't know what to think. My money right now is in KISS mode - keep it simple stupid.

[gehringer_2]

57 minutes ago, Screwball said:

Adding:

Way up thread Enron and Jeff Skilling were mentioned. This crypto stuff kind of reminds me of that. IMO, Skilling was ahead of his time when it came to "financial innovation" which is why he is on my Mt. Rushmore of financial criminals.

It's about creating something out of nothing. Of course, in this case, it seems the mining uses a whole bunch of energy, so there is that. At the same time, who does it benefit? Not society in general, at least not yet, if you want to look at that angle. As an alternative means of exchange to be clear.

All crazy stuff. I don't know what to think. My money right now is in KISS mode - keep it simple stupid.

Some Crytpos other than Bitcoin (Etherium and co) are moving away from 'Proof of Work' transaction verification to 'Proof of Stake' which requires many orders of magnitude less computation (how many depends on the exact system). If crypto has a future as any kind of working currency it will be in systems that have moved off of 'proof of work'. When the cost of the kWhr to put a transaction on the ledger is many multiples of the value of the transaction - you don't have a functional medium of exchange, you just have an arcane investment scheme.

Edited December 15, 2024 by gehringer_2

[gehringer_2]

10 hours ago, Screwball said:

unless they passed a law I guess.

Have you seen the kind of money the cyptos put into campaign contributions? Don't take that as much of a hurdle.

[Screwball]

OK, some more tin foil hat stuff. RE: the United Healthcare thing. I posted above the day the guy got shot and how goofy the stock price was the overnight before. That obviously didn't go anywhere, so I guess only screwballs like me find interest in it. 🙂

A new twist on the same subject. I happen to see a thing today about the stock price of United Healthcare being down quite a bit lately. I hadn't checked so let's do... As it turns out, and I have no idea what to think about this, but it has taken quite a beating recently.

Hummm...So I did some homework to compare, and this industry of stocks have been getting beat up even before this happened. The common ETF, IHF had been beat up too, which started around Sept this year. But this one still looks a little funny. I don't know what happened back in July, just before earnings I might add (see icons at the bottom) but it was a rocket ship right around that time. I wonder what caused that. And now this. I'd be pulling the ripcord on these positions in my portfolio.

 

 

 

[1776]

Regarding UNH:

Down @ $80 in the last 30 days. 
Up $23 over the last six months. Peaked at $625 on November 11th at $625.

I watch this stock frequently because it is a top holding in one of the funds I hold and has been for quite some time. The realized capital gain in the fund has moved up a bit recently. I know managers buy and sell often at the end of the calendar year, although this particular fund has a fiscal year end in January. I’m guessing/hoping the fund manager has taken some profits out of this holding. With RFK Jr. in play, healthcare stocks in general have come under a lot of scrutiny for a couple of months now. Morningstar has cautioned on this sector since RFK’s name dropped. 

just thinking out loud…
 

 

[chasfh]

On 12/14/2024 at 2:13 PM, Deleterious said:

Why?

Trump Confirms Bitcoin Reserve Plans—$15 Trillion Price Boom Predicted

Because he's personally going to pocket billions off it? That's my best guess, anyway.

[gehringer_2]

40 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Because he's personally going to pocket billions off it? That's my best guess, anyway.

IDK,  Chas, you don't think you may getting out on a limb there do you?

[Deleterious]

How much Bitcoin does Trump own?

[Screwball]

Wouldn't it be wild if we found out the ****wads in congress were trading stocks and making a killing while having all that inside information?  Oh, wait...

[Tiger337]

4 hours ago, chasfh said:

Because he's personally going to pocket billions off it? That's my best guess, anyway.

As in criminals will pay him off to make conditions favorable for Bitcoin gambling?

 

Edited December 16, 2024 by Tiger337

[Deleterious]

Over 500 people in Congress and only about 25 beat the S&P?  Less than half of that really crushed it.  

The #1 guy is Higgins and almost all of his gains that year were in Nvidia.  Not exactly a rocket scientist going for the AI play.

Everyone always talks about Pelosi and her insider trading.  Then I see her current top 5 holdings (Nvidia, Apple, Google, Paolo Alto Networks, and Crowdstrike) and I just laugh.  3 of the largest tech companies on earth who are responsible for most of the stock market movement over the past 5 years and 2 of the biggest cyber security firms on earth.  

If you tell me you trade equities and do not have long positions in 3 of those 5, then maybe trading isn't for you.  

[Deleterious]

If tracking congressional trading is your things, this is your site.

https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/

Personally, much more interested in donations to votes.  A corporation/industry buying a politicians vote has more impact on me than a handful of people making stock trades.

[1776]

Twice in the past month, Donald Trump has singled out companies known as pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), blaming them for high drug prices.

“We’re going to knock out the middleman,” Trump told reporters in a press conference on Monday. He noted that “the horrible middleman…makes more money frankly than the drug companies, and they don’t do anything except they’re a middleman.” The comments came after he made similar remarks in a “Meet the Press” interview earlier this month following a dinner with pharma executives and RFK Jr.

CVS Health was down 5.6% late Monday, UnitedHealth dropped 4.2% and Cigna declined 3%. The three insurance companies own the country’s three largest PBMs and collectively manage roughly 80% of U.S. prescriptions. These three stocks were already sharply down over the past month amid widespread public anger with the insurance industry, prompted in part by a debate about their role in society in the wake of the fatal shooting of a UnitedHealth Group executive.

wsj

Edited December 16, 2024 by 1776

[CMRivdogs]

17 minutes ago, 1776 said:

Twice in the past month, Donald Trump has singled out companies known as pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), blaming them for high drug prices.

“We’re going to knock out the middleman,” Trump told reporters in a press conference on Monday. He noted that “the horrible middleman…makes more money frankly than the drug companies, and they don’t do anything except they’re a middleman.” The comments came after he made similar remarks in a “Meet the Press” interview earlier this month following a dinner with pharma executives and RFK Jr.

CVS Health was down 5.6% late Monday, UnitedHealth dropped 4.2% and Cigna declined 3%. The three insurance companies own the country’s three largest PBMs and collectively manage roughly 80% of U.S. prescriptions. These three stocks were already sharply down over the past month amid widespread public anger with the insurance industry, prompted in part by a debate about their role in society in the wake of the fatal shooting of a UnitedHealth Group executive.

wsj

I have yet to figure out reasoning or why with prescription prices. For the past 3 years or so I've been taking OFEV (nintedanib) for my lungs (ILD). The over the counter price I've seen is around $12000 a month (60 tablets). Up until this year, once I met the $2,000 deductible it was costing about $680 out of pocket. This year there was no charge once my deductible was reached.

Not complaining, just a bit concerned about what the new administration, drug czar and Congress is going to hit me with. 

[gehringer_2]

26 minutes ago, 1776 said:

Twice in the past month, Donald Trump has singled out companies known as pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), blaming them for high drug prices.

“We’re going to knock out the middleman,” Trump told reporters in a press conference on Monday. He noted that “the horrible middleman…makes more money frankly than the drug companies, and they don’t do anything except they’re a middleman.” The comments came after he made similar remarks in a “Meet the Press” interview earlier this month following a dinner with pharma executives and RFK Jr.

CVS Health was down 5.6% late Monday, UnitedHealth dropped 4.2% and Cigna declined 3%. The three insurance companies own the country’s three largest PBMs and collectively manage roughly 80% of U.S. prescriptions. These three stocks were already sharply down over the past month amid widespread public anger with the insurance industry, prompted in part by a debate about their role in society in the wake of the fatal shooting of a UnitedHealth Group executive.

wsj

that's great. let see what he actually does. Trump's typical MO is talk up a real problem and then do something that makes it worse.

[Deleterious]

This is fun to watch.  They now own about 440,000 bitcoins.  

MicroStrategy stock jumps on latest bitcoin buy, Nasdaq 100 addition

[chasfh]

4 hours ago, Deleterious said:

How much Bitcoin does Trump own?

He doesn't have it own a single satoshi to profit from the whole thing. He's the guy who has his hand on the lever. That's worth much more than ownership.

[Screwball]

The problem I have with all this congressional trading is the inside information they know. They buy in way early because they know what's coming down. That is documented, and it matters. It is also illegal. If you have a true market - price discovery - everyone gets the same information at the same time. They should not be allowed to trade at all.

At the same time, this is why all these ****wads are there - they get rich - because they are ass kissing ****wads. They are laughing at us while they fleece us.

[Deleterious]

 

[chasfh]

7 hours ago, Deleterious said:

 

I nodded and laughed at this until I read the whole post and saw that this tweeter is a douchey Gen Z cryptobug who wants to teach this boomer some kind of lesson, probably something along the lines of, “this is our planet now, get the **** off!”

Edited December 18, 2024 by chasfh

[Screwball]

Happy Fed rate cut we don't need day. 85% chance of a 25bps cut according to what I read.

[Hongbit]

39 minutes ago, Screwball said:

Happy Fed rate cut we don't need day. 85% chance of a 25bps cut according to what I read.

Powell’s comments will have more to do with moving the market than the expected rate cut.  

[Screwball]

6 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

Powell’s comments will have more to do with moving the market than the expected rate cut.  

I'm not worried about how the market reacts. This rate cut is insanity given the numbers. Inflation is out of control and hurting many people. Those who deny that are liars or have their head firmly stuffed up their ass.

Edited December 18, 2024 by Screwball

[gehringer_2]

55 minutes ago, Screwball said:

I'm not worried about how the market reacts. This rate cut is insanity given the numbers. Inflation is out of control and hurting many people. Those who deny that are liars or have their head firmly stuffed up their ass.

Costs of services keep going up because wages are at the bottom end are rising, which at least is a good thing for those folks. If any large number of undocumented are expelled that will only increase upward pressure on entry level service salaries, so I'd expect the trend to continue. The 25 basis points probably won't have much effect on any of that either way. Interest rates have more effect on the capital intensive parts of the economy but services tend to be low cap. I'd like to see the Fed unwind more of their balance sheet, which is also a deflationary tactic, but since doing more of that puts pressure on bank profits I'm not holding my breath.

[Tiger337]

SP500 down 3% today.