06/05/2023 6:40pm EDT Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies

[romad1]

This game broke me.  Dan Dickerson can't sugar coat it.  We are going to be in the trough of rebuilding until we can actually attract our Magglio or our Pudge. 

[RatkoVarda]

7 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

I don’t get the Baez hate. I agree the bat has been terrible and frustrating but his defense has been solid and he posts every day. Seriously if he opts out how does that help us ? Who plays shortstop? With so many holes and plenty of payroll space forthcoming why add another problem? 

he has the lowest K rate of his career and one of the best K rates compared to his SS peers in 2023, despite some really funny/ugly ABs

he has been incredibly unlucky with BABIP, but that may be related to his power outage; if his power is gone, or he cannot tap into it because the team is asking for something different, then it will be hard for him to be an impactful player

he is only 30, and I suspect in better line up he could relax and produce more; he is the team's best (really only) bet to produce 2.0 to 3.0 WAR at SS for the next couple of years. FG:

 

Edited June 6, 2023 by RatkoVarda

[RandyMarsh]

I tend to agree about Baez, I mean I'm as frustrated with his offense as the next guy and I know he isn't worth the money but in the hypothetical situation where he opts out I'm not sure we would allocate the savings from him any better.

We'd still have a gaping hole at SS and would need to address that and FA contracts aren't getting any cheaper and this is even assuming we invest all of the money saved on him back into the roster. 

 

[kdog]

a mid 700s OPS and 20 homers shouldn't be that hard for Baez. The shocking part is that he is not doing any damage when he actually makes contact.

[RatkoVarda]

the money is not really relevant; he is the only guy with a guaranteed contract in 2024, assuming ERod leaves and you are not counting Miggy's $8M buyout.

I'd rather believe in/hope in Baez, than Rosario or Short or Workman

[Sports_Freak]

2 hours ago, romad1 said:

This game broke me.  Dan Dickerson can't sugar coat it.  We are going to be in the trough of rebuilding until we can actually attract our Magglio or our Pudge. 

Not going to happen anytime soon. Signing quality free agents isn't in the Harris playbook. He doesn't even retain arbitration eligible players if they get too expensive. This franchise is a mess that will take many years to actually contend. We <may> challenge for a weak division title but that's very misleading. We'll see this off-season when Miggy and Schoop come off the books. Spend that money to improve the team? Or save that money to increase the bottom line for Chris?

[gehringer_2]

4 hours ago, casimir said:

Yup, not many other options to go to right now.

My completely amateurish opinion by glancing at the stats for 15 seconds is that he's getting barreled up more this season than last.  Is he tipping pitches?  I mean, look at that HR% jump from last season to this.

so taking a dive into his statcast and fangraphs data there are a couple of things:

he has lowered his rlease point - so presumeably his arm angle - maybe in search of more FB velo - which he got, BUT, the velo on his change and cutter have increased more than his FB velo - so his overall delta Velo is DOWN. Dirks mentioned this the other day as well. Not only is delta velo down, but the delta vertical break between his pitches is also down - probably for the same reason - less delta V. To me, if you lose delta V and delta break, more barrels would be the expected result. Now the brain trust *must* know this, and maybe they think this is transitional on the way to something better - like maybe he gets to where he keeps the FB velo and the cutter/change drop back to where they were, or maybe they want him to use his curve more for speed change. IDK. Or maybe the arm angle change was based on an biomechanics analysis that said it would reduce the risk of further injury to his arm and they can only hope he can eventually make it all work. And after all, he was supposed to be  in Toledo where he could work out all these details without the consequences being suffered in Detroit. (Or maybe we've been conned with techno jargon and they really don't know what they are doing? 😱)

This reminds me of Verlander's mess in 2017. There was a lot of talk about his slider being 'rediscovered' by Houston's geniuses, but I still don't buy that line. What the charts say happened is that JV had changed is arm angle in the off season chasing the  velo he lost when he had the abdominal weakness and it took the life off his FB. By about mid May he started moving back to his old release point and as the FB life got better, the Slider became more effective. I'm always little skeptical about talk of better and worse sliders because the real key to any breaking ball is how good the FB it's being played against is.

Edited June 6, 2023 by gehringer_2

[gehringer_2]

14 hours ago, Jim Cowan said:

As awful as Maton has been, he has the third highest OPS in this lineup.

Also - FWIW, Maton's HR was on a breaking ball. This team does take baby steps. Problem is that at the rate they add up it won't make them competitive until 2052

Edited June 6, 2023 by gehringer_2

[Tiger337]

3 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

I tend to agree about Baez, I mean I'm as frustrated with his offense as the next guy and I know he isn't worth the money but in the hypothetical situation where he opts out I'm not sure we would allocate the savings from him any better.

We'd still have a gaping hole at SS and would need to address that and FA contracts aren't getting any cheaper and this is even assuming we invest all of the money saved on him back into the roster. 

 

They can just replace him with a couple of multi-position guys that can't hit. 

First, the Tigers were going to be the new Houston Astros, but the became the Royals instead.  Then they tried to be like the Rays and are still like the Royals. 

[SoCalTiger]

5 hours ago, Dtrain72 said:

20th worst BA in the league, also has a -200 league avg OPS...oh, and still plenty of time to be at the top of the league in defensive errors (like last season)...he'd hit 9th on an actual good team, and that's assuming said good team would even play him every day at this point, which they probably wouldnt because his bat literally detracts from any offensive value...other than that, he's worth every penny!

Looks like lots of good players struggling. 

[LongLiveMaroth]

6 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

Looks like lots of good players struggling. 

Almost like baseball is hard and unforgiving or something

[SoCalTiger]

5 hours ago, casimir said:

If his hitting isn't going to get any better, and he's a defense only SS, that contract becomes ugly if/when that remaining strength is gone.  Is a defense only SS worth $25M/season if his defense fades away?  I guess he might still have the baserunning acumen, but if he ain't on base, how does he use it?

I was happy with offering him 4 seasons with a 5th option, although he wasn't my first SS option that offseason.  He got 6 total, with the opt out.  OK, fine.  I never thought his hitting would completely disintegrate like it has.

I don't think he will opt out, but who knows.

I agree with you completely his bat is far far short of 25 million but given where we are now he remains our best option at short. Just gotta believe he will start to hit better. At least some right ?

[casimir]

37 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

They can just replace him with a couple of multi-position guys that can't hit. 

First, the Tigers were going to be the new Houston Astros, but the became the Royals instead.  Then they tried to be like the Rays and are still like the Royals. 

That's rude to the Royals.

[casimir]

23 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

I agree with you completely

This is a phrase that should never be used in response to me.

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, casimir said:

This is a phrase that should never be used in response to me.

I agree with you completely.

[casimir]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

I agree with you completely.

I served that one up like a Wentz meatball, didn't I?

[chasfh]

On 6/5/2023 at 8:43 PM, buddha said:

i think the only person who dislikes avila more than me is chas.  lol.

Tell me I was wrong about him. 

[chasfh]

On 6/6/2023 at 9:10 AM, RandyMarsh said:

I tend to agree about Baez, I mean I'm as frustrated with his offense as the next guy and I know he isn't worth the money but in the hypothetical situation where he opts out I'm not sure we would allocate the savings from him any better.

By this do you mean you believe it’s a 50/50 roll of the dice that Harris might be the equivalent of Avila in level of acuity as a general manager? Or are you simply saying there’s no absolute guarantee that Harris would be any better than Avila was?

[chasfh]

On 6/6/2023 at 10:03 AM, RatkoVarda said:

the money is not really relevant; he is the only guy with a guaranteed contract in 2024, assuming ERod leaves and you are not counting Miggy's $8M buyout.

I'd rather believe in/hope in Baez, than Rosario or Short or Workman

Why would Eduardo Rodriguez leave?

[chasfh]

On 6/6/2023 at 10:48 AM, Sports_Freak said:

Not going to happen anytime soon. Signing quality free agents isn't in the Harris playbook. He doesn't even retain arbitration eligible players if they get too expensive.

By this do you mean Candelario?

[chasfh]

On 6/6/2023 at 12:25 PM, Tiger337 said:

They can just replace him with a couple of multi-position guys that can't hit. 

First, the Tigers were going to be the new Houston Astros, but the became the Royals instead.  Then they tried to be like the Rays and are still like the Royals. 

If the Tigers have settled into being the Royals, what do you see as our best hope for the future? What would have to happen, organizationally, for things to turn around? Or is the organization solid and it’s a matter of tweaking current philosophies, strategies, and the like? Is it possible for us to do a 180 from where we are now and still win a pennant or a ring in 2023?

[gehringer_2]

24 minutes ago, chasfh said:

 Or is the organization solid and it’s a matter of tweaking current philosophies, strategies, and the like? Is it possible for us to do a 180 from where we are now and still win a pennant or a ring in 2023?

Just looking at raw realities, I would say that if the Tigers lose 90 again, the odds are  50/50 Hinch is let go. 2 bad seasons is a common bottom line for managerial survival. And if that happens then we are probably looking at more philosophical realignment - either toward a new manager's ideas, or possibly to a more GM office centered philosophy if Harris ever makes that hire. So I think there are a lot of unknowns in play for a future as near as next year that hinge on how they finish this year.

Edited June 11, 2023 by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

16 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Just looking at raw realities, I would say that if the Tigers lose 90 again, the odds are  50/50 Hinch is let go. 2 bad seasons is a common bottom line for managerial survival. And if that happens then we are probably looking at more philosophical realignment - either toward a new manager's ideas, or possibly to a more GM office centered philosophy if Harris ever makes that hire. So I think there are a lot of unknowns in play for a future as near as next year that hinge on how they finish this year.

I don’t know, Hinch and Harris seem too much on the same page for Hinch to be let go for no other reason than losing 90 games with arguably the least-talented team in baseball. I think they’d have to have a major falling out philosophically for that to happen.

[gehringer_2]

3 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I don’t know, Hinch and Harris seem too much on the same page for Hinch to be let go for no other reason than losing 90 games with arguably the least-talented team in baseball. I think they’d have to have a major falling out philosophically for that to happen.

Never underestimate the propensity of management to value marketing and PR over relationships. They are going to need another PR booster for next year if this season doesn't turn around at least a little, and you know who the #1 candidate 'scape goat always is. 

Edited June 11, 2023 by gehringer_2

[mtutiger]

12 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Never underestimate the propensity of management to value marketing and PR over relationships. They are going to need another PR booster for next year if this season doesn't turn around at least a little, and you know who the #1 candidate 'scape goat always is. 

I tend to agree with Chas here... there are always a lot of inferences of friction between the two of them (a certain cohost of "Days of Roar" seems to always suggest it), but really there is little evidence they arent simpatico. And I'm guessing both of them knew what this season would be like and that it was likely to be an evaluation season / clean slate after the departure of Al.

The other thing is this fanbase, for better or worse, loves AJ. Making him the scapegoat for a 90 loss season, particularly when most expected a 90 losses or more, would seem to be really terrible PR.

Edited June 11, 2023 by mtutiger