chasfh Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Tiger337 said: He might not have known that at the time of his decision to opt out. He may have underestimated his value. I agree that he overestimated his value by signing for less guaranteed money than he would have made here. He probably thought he was going to get multiple guaranteed years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 1 hour ago, chasfh said: I agree that he overestimated his value by signing for less guaranteed money than he would have made here. He probably thought he was going to get multiple guaranteed years. I expected him to get a two year deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Tiger337 said: Baez has an RBI% (RBI/runners on base) of 15.43 which is 126th in baseball. just for comparison, IIRC when Cabrera was good, his RBI % was in the low 20's. Logically, RBI% is mostly a corelate of batting average - all things being equal, if you have a high batting average you're going to have a high RBI%, but you still get some variation in RBI% between guys with similar BAs. And that makes some sense because it's clear watching play that some hitters good enough to have some control over their ABs, like Cabrera was, may be altering their approach with a man on 2nd. OTOH it's also logical to assume that some guys must do worse with the added pressure. It alwasys seemed pretty clear Miguel altered his approach to put the ball up the midde with RSIP, and that probably drove some marginal increase in his RBI% compared to a guy who didn't. I remember once attempting to normalize Prince Fielder vs Cabrera's RBI% vs their BA's and at least between those two there was a pretty good residual signal that Miguel's reliability with RISP was better than Prince's. Also re BA. We know OPS is the much better measure of total batting value than BA - that's not an argument. But the case where you might care about BA vs OBP as the contribution to OPS is with that man on 2nd. A walk in that situation contributes as much to your OPS as single, but the single probably gets the guy home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said: just for comparison, IIRC when Cabrera was good, his RBI % was in the low 20's. Logically, RBI% is mostly a corelate of batting average - all things being equal, if you have a high batting average you're going to have a high RBI%, but you still get some variation in RBI% between guys with similar BAs. And that makes some sense because it's clear watching play that some hitters good enough to have some control over their ABs, like Cabrera was, may be altering their approach with a man on 2nd. OTOH it's also logical to assume that some guys must do worse with the added pressure. It alwasys seemed pretty clear Miguel altered his approach to put the ball up the midde with RSIP, and that probably drove some marginal increase in his RBI% compared to a guy who didn't. I remember once attempting to normalize Prince Fielder vs Cabrera's RBI% vs their BA's and at least between those two there was a pretty good residual signal that Miguel's reliability with RISP was better than Prince's. Also re BA. We know OPS is the much better measure of total batting value than BA - that's not an argument. But the case where you might care about BA vs OBP as the contribution to OPS is with that man on 2nd. A walk in that situation contributes as much to your OPS as single, but the single probably gets the guy home. There are limited situations where the higher BA is preferable. However, if two players have the same OPS and one has a higher batting average, the other player likely also has more extra base hits which makes it more like to get RBI with a runner on first base. So, overall I don't know that the player with the higher average will necessaily have an RBI advantage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 28 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: I expected him to get a two year deal. He kinda did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: So, overall I don't know that the player with the higher average will necessaily have an RBI advantage. right - and on an overall basis, if you just run linear regression on BA, OBP and OPS vs Runs scored across a team, OPS is the best correlate, which proves that OPS must contribute more to RBI in total when considering all batting situations. Edited June 16, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 3 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: right - and on an overall basis, if you just run linear regression on BA, OBP and OPS vs Runs scored across a team, OPS is the best correlate, which proves that OPS must contribute more to RBI in total when considering all batting situations. Any idea where SLG fits in? That's also a component of OPS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 1 hour ago, chasfh said: Any idea where SLG fits in? That's also a component of OPS. Numerically? No.A few yr ago I ran a data set of the simple 1st order unweighted batting measures against team scoring: BB, K, Avg, Slug/ISO, OBP, OPS etc. But TBH it has been a few years now. If I could find the my old run I should run it again against more recent data just for grins to see if there are any shifts the relative correlations. OPS was clearly the best correlate but I don't remember the order after that Is there any disagreement today that OPS is the most predictive 'simple' stat for hitters? The more sophisticated linearly weighted measures may be even better, but the average fan usually doesn't have the data to generate those, not to mention it being difficult to understand the moving parts as easily as with OPS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinzaki Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 OPS+ is kinda cool... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 23 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: Numerically? No.A few yr ago I ran a data set of the simple 1st order unweighted batting measures against team scoring: BB, K, Avg, Slug/ISO, OBP, OPS etc. But TBH it has been a few years now. If I could find the my old run I should run it again against more recent data just for grins to see if there are any shifts the relative correlations. OPS was clearly the best correlate but I don't remember the order after that Is there any disagreement today that OPS is the most predictive 'simple' stat for hitters? The more sophisticated linearly weighted measures may be even better, but the average fan usually doesn't have the data to generate those, not to mention it being difficult to understand the moving parts as easily as with OPS. I don't disagree but I am interested in finding whether on base or slugging correlates better to run scoring, or more exactly runs created. I could make an argument for either going in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Cowan Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 I like OPS and WHIP because the average fan (me) can easily calculate them, and understand what they mean. I'm sure the other ones are great too but probably won't lead very often to different conclusions than you might get from those 2 simple stats. I never paid any attention to WAR after that time that Ben Zobrist was the best player in the league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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