2023 Trade Deadline

[RatkoVarda]

7 weeks from tomorrow is the trade deadline.

Harris has done well in his 3 trades: Jimenez-Malloy; Soto/Clemens-Maton/Vierling/Sands; Guzman-McKinstry.

Dombrowski had a magical run of great trades, and at the start, I don't think he had much more to work with than what Harris has now, which is, not very much.

Lorenzen – textbook trade deadline acquisition; SP who has experience as RP; expiring deal; reasonable $; having probably best year of his career; if they want him on the 2024 Tigers, then great, sign him this winter as FA

ERod -hopefully off IL by 8/1; opting out so need to get something, literally anything, for him

Boyd – very little value; you can hopefully trick a team into an Olson-type return?

Lange-Foley-Vest – need to listen; hope for crazy offers

McKinstry – this, right now, is the best he can perform, and if some team will pay a premium for that (Seattle?) you should sell high

CBB - trading for another one would be great; but what value can Harris get trading away the 37th pick?

Anyone else -  cannot wait to see some of that world famous Scott Harris calculated risk in action

[LongLiveMaroth]

10 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

McKinstry – this, right now, is the best he can perform, and if some team will pay a premium for that (Seattle?) you should sell high

Or Houston but last time we did that it didn't turn out so well. 
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/06/astros-trade-rumors-left-handed-bat-versatile-outfield-first-base.html

[casimir]

28 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

7 weeks from tomorrow is the trade deadline.

Harris has done well in his 3 trades: Jimenez-Malloy; Soto/Clemens-Maton/Vierling/Sands; Guzman-McKinstry.

Dombrowski had a magical run of great trades, and at the start, I don't think he had much more to work with than what Harris has now, which is, not very much.

Lorenzen – textbook trade deadline acquisition; SP who has experience as RP; expiring deal; reasonable $; having probably best year of his career; if they want him on the 2024 Tigers, then great, sign him this winter as FA

ERod -hopefully off IL by 8/1; opting out so need to get something, literally anything, for him

Boyd – very little value; you can hopefully trick a team into an Olson-type return?

Lange-Foley-Vest – need to listen; hope for crazy offers

McKinstry – this, right now, is the best he can perform, and if some team will pay a premium for that (Seattle?) you should sell high

CBB - trading for another one would be great; but what value can Harris get trading away the 37th pick?

Anyone else -  cannot wait to see some of that world famous Scott Harris calculated risk in action

I didn't see Schoop or Cisnero.

[Tigermojo]

We could be buyers. We need bats. For years, Dombrowski and Avila drafted pitchers, so if we needed to, they could be flipped for hitters. We just need to look in the cupboard at AAA and....was it the cupboard at AA? Hmm let's check single A. Uhhh anybody see those pitchers we drafted over the course of several years?

[Tiger337]

29 minutes ago, casimir said:

I didn't see Schoop or Cisnero.

Or maybe trade Cabrera to a contender, so he can play in the World Series.  

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Or maybe trade Cabrera to a contender, so he can play in the World Series.  

He's been building his trade value in the last ....week....or so.

[RatkoVarda]

some interesting names here

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-trade-candidates-change-of-scenery-2023

[SeattleMike]

43 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

some interesting names here

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-trade-candidates-change-of-scenery-2023

I think Dickerson was talking about the insane offensive numbers being put up in AAA this year. And maybe last year as well. All these 25 years old raking at AAA may just be benefiting from whatever is in the water at AAA. 

[Shinzaki]

I vaguely recall really wanting to see the Tigers get guys like Jo Adell and Keston Hiura in deadline deals a few years ago.  Florial seemed like an impossible ask.   It really is a crapshoot...isn't it?

[casimir]

7 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

Or maybe trade Cabrera to a contender, so he can play in the World Series.  

The Marlins?  Make it full circle.

[chasfh]

Assuming things on July 31 are roughly the same as now, I see getting the most for Lorenzen, maybe a top ten org-ranked prospect.

I think Rodriguez is damaged goods in a couple of ways so I don’t see teams emptying the top of their systems to get him. He might be a get-whatever-you-can guy.

I’m not sure what else we have that unlocks more than a Maton/Vierling level return. This is where prospect-level analytics to unlock potential really comes into play, so fire up Caesar and let’s get after that.

[mtutiger]

22 hours ago, chasfh said:

I think Rodriguez is damaged goods in a couple of ways so I don’t see teams emptying the top of their systems to get him. He might be a get-whatever-you-can guy.

The opt-out makes things tricky as well... if he weren't injured and pitching well, teams would have a better idea of what he would do at the end of this season. 

Seems like most assume he will still exercise it, but that is less clear now imo. 

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

The opt-out makes things tricky as well... if he weren't injured and pitching well, teams would have a better idea of what he would do at the end of this season. 

Seems like most assume he will still exercise it, but that is less clear now imo. 

I think that, too, particularly if Rodriguez is adding up all his chronic injuries and other issues and making a financial calculation based on it.

[RedTeamGo!]

Reds Get:

RHP Lorenzen 

Tigers Get:

RHP Live Stoudt 

OF Rece Hinds

 

Who says no?

[RedRamage]

7 minutes ago, RedTeamGo! said:

Reds Get:

RHP Lorenzen 

Tigers Get:

RHP Live Stoudt 

OF Rece Hinds

 

Who says no?

I think Scott Harris would say no...

Stoudt in triple-A this year: SO 21, BB: 23
Hinds in double-A this year: SO: 88, BB: 10

Those do not appear to be Harris-type players.

EDIT TO ADD: It's worth noting that last year across three minor league levels, Stoudt had 103 SO to just 32 BB, so perhaps he's just having a rough start to 2023? For completeness sake, Hinds' 2022 (also across 3 levels) season wasn't good: 135 SO to just 25 BB.

[LongLiveMaroth]

3 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

I think Scott Harris would say no...

Stoudt in triple-A this year: SO 21, BB: 23
Hinds in double-A this year: SO: 88, BB: 10

Those do not appear to be Harris-type players.

Agreed, I would prefer to have Chase Petty or Connor Phillips over Stoudt even if we don't get a second player in return

[Tenacious D]

If we don’t get at least two of Skubal, Manning, Turnbull and ERod back, we might not have the luxury of trading Lorenzen.  No depth at Toledo, as we’ve already stretched that.

[gehringer_2]

Just now, Tenacious D said:

If we don’t get at least two of Skubal, Manning, Turnbull and ERod back, we might not have the luxury of trading Lorenzen.  No depth at Toledo, as we’ve already stretched that.

I was a big fan of Mannings upside when he we was coming up, but at this point my doubts are high about his future ability to stay on the field.

[LongLiveMaroth]

2 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

If we don’t get at least two of Skubal, Manning, Turnbull and ERod back, we might not have the luxury of trading Lorenzen.  No depth at Toledo, as we’ve already stretched that.

I'll be honest, I don't see a scenario outside of terrible results/injury that Lorenzen is a Tiger after the deadline. They would probably bring up Bergner or Hurter to fill the spot if they had to or stretch out Alexander again.

[RedRamage]

1 minute ago, Tenacious D said:

If we don’t get at least two of Skubal, Manning, Turnbull and ERod back, we might not have the luxury of trading Lorenzen.  No depth at Toledo, as we’ve already stretched that.

We can be a bad team with Lorenzen or we can be a worse team without Lorenzen and maybe get a diamond in the rough...

[Tenacious D]

Just now, RedRamage said:

We can be a bad team with Lorenzen or we can be a worse team without Lorenzen and maybe get a diamond in the rough...

I’m not even concerned with winning—someone has to cover his innings.  Probably a moot point—I suspect we’ll get possibly all 4 of the guys I listed back.

Of course, with our luck, Lorenzen will go down with an injury in July.

I do hope we’re in a position to be active at the deadline with tradable assets that are coveted by other teams—interested in seeing how Harris and Co. approach it.

[RedTeamGo!]

1 hour ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

Agreed, I would prefer to have Chase Petty or Connor Phillips over Stoudt even if we don't get a second player in return

Well, there is no way Petty or Phillips are coming back for a BOR starter that is a FA at the end of the season. Phillips will be in the Reds rotation probably by end of July with what he is doing to AA right now. 

Hinds is an interesting prospect, he hits for a ton of power, but hasn't put it all together, he is a lottery pick. Stoudt has a live arm, with that said, I can understand not wanting him. 

I think a fair trade would be Lorenzen for TJ Hopkins and a pitcher not named Petty, Phillips, or Acosta. 

[LongLiveMaroth]

10 minutes ago, RedTeamGo! said:

Well, there is no way Petty or Phillips are coming back for a BOR starter that is a FA at the end of the season. Phillips will be in the Reds rotation probably by end of July with what he is doing to AA right now. 

Hinds is an interesting prospect, he hits for a ton of power, but hasn't put it all together, he is a lottery pick. Stoudt has a live arm, with that said, I can understand not wanting him. 

I think a fair trade would be Lorenzen for TJ Hopkins and a pitcher not named Petty, Phillips, or Acosta. 

I mean I hear you, I was basing this on FanGraphs as they have Phillips as a 45 and Petty as a 45+ which would be in line with previous trade deadline returns for rentals. If Lorenzen keeps up his current performance,  he would be more than a BOR guy. Even with his poor beginning of the season, he has a 1.02 WHIP 3.75 ERA on the season. He has gone 6+ innings in 6 out of the last 7 starts. Even his last start against AZ was going great until the 7th inning and had 2 inherited runners score. 

[RedTeamGo!]

17 minutes ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

I mean I hear you, I was basing this on FanGraphs as they have Phillips as a 45 and Petty as a 45+ which would be in line with previous trade deadline returns for rentals. If Lorenzen keeps up his current performance,  he would be more than a BOR guy. Even with his poor beginning of the season, he has a 1.02 WHIP 3.75 ERA on the season. He has gone 6+ innings in 6 out of the last 7 starts. Even his last start against AZ was going great until the 7th inning and had 2 inherited runners score. 

Yep, I was at that last game in Detroit. He was left in too long. 

I have watched a lot of Lorenzen, I have seen him go through stretches like this before to see him either get hurt or just fall off a cliff. I am not really a fan of FG prospect work at this point, they seem to lag behind the rest of the industry quite a bit IMHO. Phillips as a 45 is nonsense. 

[chasfh]

On 6/14/2023 at 10:04 AM, Tenacious D said:

If we don’t get at least two of Skubal, Manning, Turnbull and ERod back, we might not have the luxury of trading Lorenzen.  No depth at Toledo, as we’ve already stretched that.

Depends on the return.