casimir Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Someone did a study of hockey goalies who were hot and cold and determined that inconsistency was preferable to consistency in the team's win total. Tango theorized that the same was true of pitchers. You figure a team is going to win most of the starts when a starting pitcher gives up 0 or 1 run, but giving up an average number of runs every game is not going to be as good especially if the team can't hit. Tango explained it as the difference between 1 run and 4 runs is bigger than the difference between 4 runs and 7 runs. You are going to lose most of the 4-7 run games, but your chances of winning goes up a lot when you go from 4 runs to 1 run. So, you want to get as many of those really low run games as you can even if you have games where you get pounded. Might need to have a goalie pitch to test this theory out. Don't roll your eyes at me. It ain't the dumbest idea. They're shooting pucks in the dugout this season. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toddwert Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Wouldn’t we rather see them trade these 4A players then some wet fart of a playoff run that goes nowhere… i know i know you get in the playoffs you never know what will happen but come on would this be a division title you’d brag about? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, Toddwert said: Wouldn’t we rather see them trade these 4A players then some wet fart of a playoff run that goes nowhere… i know i know you get in the playoffs you never know what will happen but come on would this be a division title you’d brag about? It would be a really weak division title and even if they somehow managed to win the World Series, that's not the way I want it to happen. When they win it all some day, I want it to be with a great memorable team. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, Toddwert said: Wouldn’t we rather see them trade these 4A players then some wet fart of a playoff run that goes nowhere… i know i know you get in the playoffs you never know what will happen but come on would this be a division title you’d brag about? The problem is that its tough to expect much trade value of the 4A players. Norris for Olson is the exception, not the rule. I don't think its a playoff team. I would expect Rodriguez and Lorenzen to be traded. I don't think there are enough remaining SPs to keep the team afloat given the offense. Heck, I don't know if there would be enough remaining healthy SPs to begin with. I kind of wonder if Carpenter and his inexpensive offense would yield something worthwhile in return, but his defense is compromising. I'd be comfortable with him as DH next season, but I don't really want a long term DH. I'd prefer the offensive players be able to play competent defense, too. Ideally the DH spot could be used for a partial day off or guys dealing with injuries (kind of like Greene now). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toddwert Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 12 minutes ago, casimir said: The problem is that its tough to expect much trade value of the 4A players. Norris for Olson is the exception, not the rule. I don't think its a playoff team. I would expect Rodriguez and Lorenzen to be traded. I don't think there are enough remaining SPs to keep the team afloat given the offense. Heck, I don't know if there would be enough remaining healthy SPs to begin with. I kind of wonder if Carpenter and his inexpensive offense would yield something worthwhile in return, but his defense is compromising. I'd be comfortable with him as DH next season, but I don't really want a long term DH. I'd prefer the offensive players be able to play competent defense, too. Ideally the DH spot could be used for a partial day off or guys dealing with injuries (kind of like Greene now). Crazy thought would you trade Tork if some team was intrested? Say 2 top 200ish level prospects? Just thinking out loud Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longgone Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, Toddwert said: Crazy thought would you trade Tork if some team was intrested? Say 2 top 200ish level prospects? Just thinking out loud Hell no Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holygoat Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 55 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: It would be a really weak division title and even if they somehow managed to win the World Series, that's not the way I want it to happen. When they win it all some day, I want it to be with a great memorable team. If they win it all with this team, that will make them memorable. I want a Tigers WS title to happen any way they can pull it off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 29 minutes ago, Toddwert said: Crazy thought would you trade Tork if some team was intrested? Say 2 top 200ish level prospects? Just thinking out loud no - you don't know if you'd be selling low. You're going to get back value based on what Tork is now when the unknows with him are mostly to the upside - you'd end up giving up the upside chance for pretty much nothing. His case is not like Micheal Fulmer's was where he had started out hot but you already had an inkling based on his pitch shapes and health history that there was downside risk in the future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 45 minutes ago, Toddwert said: Crazy thought would you trade Tork if some team was intrested? Say 2 top 200ish level prospects? Just thinking out loud I don't think I consider anyone on the team untouchable. Some are a heck of a lot more expensive than others. Two top 200 prospects is too vague to go off of. Are they both outside of the top 100? I wouldn't return the phone call. Is one a top 100 and the other a top 200? Depends upon the combination. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 1 hour ago, holygoat said: If they win it all with this team, that will make them memorable. I want a Tigers WS title to happen any way they can pull it off. I am in the minority as I think most fans would agree with you. However, I just wouldn't see a team that played .500 ball for a 162 games as a real champion. Sure, I'd be entertained by the playoff run, but I would look back and know that they were a mediocre team that got lucky in the end. It would be a different feeling for me from 1984 when they were a great team from start to finish and unquestionably the best in baseball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lordstanley Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 21 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: I am in the minority as I think most fans would agree with you. However, I just wouldn't see a team that played .500 ball for a 162 games as a real champion. Sure, I'd be entertained by the playoff run, but I would look back and know that they were a mediocre team that got lucky in the end. It would be a different feeling for me from 1984 when they were a great team from start to finish and unquestionably the best in baseball. I mostly agree with you and winning it all in 2006 or 2013 would have capped truly championship-calibre seasons. 2012 didn’t have quite the same feel but I was still into it. This year would be undeserved but I’d still take it without apology because I have this nagging unfinished business from 2006-2014 plus I want to scratch that 39 year itch. Hell, I’d even use the injustice of not having home field advantage in 1987 to rationalize feeling good about winning ugly this year. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeattleMike Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 47 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: I am in the minority as I think most fans would agree with you. However, I just wouldn't see a team that played .500 ball for a 162 games as a real champion. Sure, I'd be entertained by the playoff run, but I would look back and know that they were a mediocre team that got lucky in the end. It would be a different feeling for me from 1984 when they were a great team from start to finish and unquestionably the best in baseball. I wonder if that is how Cardinals fans feel about 2006. Or Twins fans about ‘87. I sort of feel the same way you do but wouldn’t suffer too much from an “undeserved” championship. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 8 hours ago, SeattleMike said: I wonder if that is how Cardinals fans feel about 2006. Or Twins fans about ‘87. I sort of feel the same way you do but wouldn’t suffer too much from an “undeserved” championship. I have just gotten to the point where I don't really care about the playoffs that much. I am more interested iin them having a good team that can consistently win around 90 games like they had during the Dombrowski years. It would have been nice if they had won the crapshoot one of those years but not winning the post-season tournament didn't make them a failure in my eyes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 (edited) Looking back since 2017 when the Tigers started being terrible, I can not tell you which teams won the World Series each year, but I know which franchises were the most successful without looking - Astos, Dodgers, Yankees , Red Sox, Braves, Rays, Indians, Cardinals. Going back and looking I see that I only missed the Brewers (in terms of most wins during that period). Edited July 17, 2023 by Tiger337 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cruzer1 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 12 hours ago, Tiger337 said: It would be a really weak division title and even if they somehow managed to win the World Series, that's not the way I want it to happen. When they win it all some day, I want it to be with a great memorable team. '87 Twins... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, Cruzer1 said: '87 Twins... Not a great team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 To me, the "buy" or "sell" discussion hinges on playoff odds. Loitering in the 2% range isn't enough to push in chips, but if you are trading an anonymous lower level pitching prospect for a veteran rental, is that really going to set back your rebuild? There's also the "Reconfigure for 2024" trades where you buy low on a guy or two who could contribute next year. Finally, 40 man roster considerations are abound at the deadline as teams start to look at potential crunches this offseason. The Tigers are in a spot where they can add, and might be able to get a rule 5 eligible guy or two from a team facing a crunch. A simulation exercise I did last week suggests the Tigers have plenty of room to spare. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toddwert Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 18 minutes ago, Edman85 said: To me, the "buy" or "sell" discussion hinges on playoff odds. Loitering in the 2% range isn't enough to push in chips, but if you are trading an anonymous lower level pitching prospect for a veteran rental, is that really going to set back your rebuild? There's also the "Reconfigure for 2024" trades where you buy low on a guy or two who could contribute next year. Finally, 40 man roster considerations are abound at the deadline as teams start to look at potential crunches this offseason. The Tigers are in a spot where they can add, and might be able to get a rule 5 eligible guy or two from a team facing a crunch. A simulation exercise I did last week suggests the Tigers have plenty of room to spare. My fear would be not trading someone of value rather then acquiring a player Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 (edited) 48 minutes ago, Edman85 said: To me, the "buy" or "sell" discussion hinges on playoff odds To a point. The playoff odds are only a measure of the accumulated past up to a point - your win/loss record and the number of teams ahead of you, and the records of who you and they have left to play. The Crux of the bet for Harris is whether the team that took the field on July 14 is different/better team than the one that played the first half. The current odds alone can't tell him that because they are primariy the results for that 'other' team. Edited July 17, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: To a point. The playoff odds are only a measure of the accumulated past up to a point - your win/loss record and the number of teams ahead of you, and the records of who you and they have left to play. The Crux of the bet for Harris is whether the team that took the field on July 14 is different/better team than the one that played the first half. The current odds alone can't tell him that because they are primariy the results for that 'other' team. The playoff odds factor that in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 Yes, they do factor that in, but 3% still seems too low. Still, I don't think their odds are high enough where they should think about winning this year when making deadline deals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Edman85 said: The playoff odds factor that in. No they don't, not really, because *nobody* knows how this combination of players will play, it hasn't happened yet so there is no statistical record about it. That is the thing about sports metrics. You use statistics to try and pick out a signal from noise, but you are still assuming there is a true unchanging signal there to measure. The reality in sports is that the thing you are measuring is changing all the time, so your measurements are actually far more precise that the real certainty of the underlying phenomena. It's especially true with a bunch of young players whose current track records are short enough that there is even less certainly about whether they are better or worse they you think today. Edited July 17, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 The projections absolutely divvy out playing time and adjust for that. I don't know how you can say they don't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 (edited) 30 minutes ago, Edman85 said: The projections absolutely divvy out playing time and adjust for that. I don't know how you can say they don't. it's not that they don't use a number, it's the number isn't worth much because the underlying data has low validity. Projections for guys like Lange, Greene, Torkelson, Cabrera, Lorenzen, Skubal, Manning are not worth the paper you'd print them on right now. They could all end up anywhere, good or bad. Will they call up Keith or Meadows, would either hit if they did? WTFK!? Edited July 17, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRamage Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 On 7/6/2023 at 1:12 PM, Dan Gilmore said: I know it’s easy to forget about A Meadows and the timing of the trade with the Rays, but the theory would have been us getting a solid OF when we had a need. Not saying the appraisal of Paredes wasn’t flawed, just that there was an expected value in return. This. The trade wasn't saying Paredes had no future and so don't keep him. Rather it was: "We value this guy more than that guy." The mental health issues that Meadows is dealing with right now make it really hard to make it "fair" comparison because it looks like we just dumped a guy and got nothing (so far) in return... which is exactly what's happened. But that's asking people to predict a mental health issue that I don't think is in anyway predictable. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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