Edman85 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Fangraphs playoff odds as of this morning 3.0%... PECOTA doesn't update until later in the day, but 0.4% as of yesterday. I'm still selling. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Just now, Edman85 said: Fangraphs playoff odds as of this morning 3.0%... PECOTA doesn't update until later in the day, but 0.4% as of yesterday. I'm still selling. I think another way to look at it is what is the division winner win total and what would it take for the Tigers to surpass it? Fangraphs has Minnesota at 83.5 wins. Detroit is 44-52. 84 wins would require finishing out at 40-26, a .606 winning percentage. Is it possible for the Tigers to upgrade themselves enough to that kind of team? Kind of seems doubtful to me. Can they "buy" controllable players that could impact this season without compromising the farm system? I think it'd be quite the balancing act to do. The lineup is just awful, so any kind of move would seem to improve it at a few different positions. Will the pitching backfill for guys traded be sufficient enough as well? Seems a daunting task. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 9 hours ago, RatkoVarda said: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/07/astros-rays-showing-interest-in-michael-lorenzen.html Michael Lorenzen is one of the top rental starting pitchers who could move between now and the August 1 trade deadline. The Rays and Astros are among the contending clubs that have shown interest in the Tigers’ righty, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). Yes, Tampa has some young talent/depth. IMHO a player like Vidal Brujan plus maybe a young arm. Brujan is 'not' going to get a real chance there and just a year+ ago he was a top 100 on a couple sites. Switch hit, versatile, excellent speed, contact ability, good arm & still young. Could bat atop the order (ex at 2B) and lengthen the lineup. Question what is the value there if Tampa is not going to really play him, have others coming up the ranks now and they need P? They also have Greg Jones SS, Carson Williams SS, Willy Vasquez Inf, etc. All seem to be 'potential' starting Inf/versatile pieces. Maybe we have to add a reliever to make a multi player deal... Houston has Pedro Leon Inf/OF as one player (also SP Colton Gordon). Just 'spitballing' names. Of course SHarris may be looking more at lower level players. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edman85 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 (edited) 6 minutes ago, casimir said: I think another way to look at it is what is the division winner win total and what would it take for the Tigers to surpass it? Fangraphs has Minnesota at 83.5 wins. Detroit is 44-52. 84 wins would require finishing out at 40-26, a .606 winning percentage. Is it possible for the Tigers to upgrade themselves enough to that kind of team? Kind of seems doubtful to me. Can they "buy" controllable players that could impact this season without compromising the farm system? I think it'd be quite the balancing act to do. The lineup is just awful, so any kind of move would seem to improve it at a few different positions. Will the pitching backfill for guys traded be sufficient enough as well? Seems a daunting task. I also think pushing in and not cashing in on Michael Lorenzen at peak value would be regretted for years. Edited July 21, 2023 by Edman85 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddha Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 take 3 of 4 from the royals and suddenly were the 27 yankees. see the big picture and sell anything that's not in the long term plan. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, Edman85 said: I also think pushing in and not cashing in on Michael Lorenzen at peak value would be regretted for years. Indeed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 (edited) 58 minutes ago, casimir said: Can they "buy" controllable players that could impact this season without compromising the farm system? I think it'd be quite the balancing act to do. The lineup is just awful, so any kind of move would seem to improve it at a few different positions. Will the pitching backfill for guys traded be sufficient enough as well? Seems a daunting task. My guess is that they are going to sell, but they are going to attempt to do so in a way that returns ML-ready or close-to-ML ready talent. Easier said than done, but that's why Scott Harris got the contract. I do think it's worth taking a step back and recognizing that Michael Lorenzen, overall, has been a success for this front office... there was a lot of skepticism when they signed him, but one of the things Harris discussed when he was hired was becoming a place where players could go to get better. And that vision largely played out with Lorenzen, which will benefit the team as he will likely will return more at the trade deadline than what one would have expected he might back at the beginning of the season. Edited July 21, 2023 by mtutiger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RatkoVarda Posted July 21, 2023 Author Share Posted July 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Edman85 said: I also think pushing in and not cashing in on Michael Lorenzen at peak value would be regretted for years and for once a player is actually peaking and is healthy at the right time, with an all-star appearance within 21.2 scoreless innings, AND there appears to be multiple buyers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 2 hours ago, casimir said: Well, see, there's that qualifier. It ain't exactly a good farm system to deal from, is it? Not sure—beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Dombrowski was skilled at moving prospects that other teams seemed to value enough to give up a good player in return. And we’re not barren—I would think Malloy, Meadows, Flores, Madden, Jobe and Jung have value. And I agree that Keith should be available in the right deal. I just would like us to be open to taking advantage of the market to improve our offense. If we just want to be sellers, that excludes opportunities with teams who are also selling. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 16 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said: and for once a player is actually peaking and is healthy at the right time, with an all-star appearance within 21.2 scoreless innings, AND there appears to be multiple buyers Yeah, I’ll be shocked if he’s a Tiger on August 2nd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLiveMaroth Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 32 minutes ago, mtutiger said: My guess is that they are going to sell, but they are going to attempt to do so in a way that returns ML-ready or close-to-ML ready talent. Easier said than done, but that's why Scott Harris got the contract. Because A. I have no life and B. this kind of thing is fun for me I have been looking through potential trade partners and their prospect lists and just checking to see who may match up with us in both need and prospects. Texas: Foscue- Already talked about this it makes a lot of sense given Harris' love of a good hit tool and him being blocked. Arizona: Blaze Alexander, seems like a RH McKinstry with a bigger arm. He doesn't have the high hit tool but seems to be in the mold I think that Harris and Hinch like. Tampa Bay: Osleivis Basabe 60 hit tool and has played all around the INF but not sure if TB would be willing to trade him for a rental. Baltimore: Cesar Prieto is a lower ranked player but has a solid hit tool hitting .333 with a 19/25 BB:K split between AA and AAA. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 55 minutes ago, mtutiger said: My guess is that they are going to sell, but they are going to attempt to do so in a way that returns ML-ready or close-to-ML ready talent. Easier said than done, but that's why Scott Harris got the contract... There are player-for-player (MLB) swaps, and there are trades for blocked prospects stuck at AA or AAA that I think would fit this definition. Alex made an attempt in a post just above us... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 And then came Long Live Mike Maroth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 2 hours ago, Edman85 said: Fangraphs playoff odds as of this morning 3.0%... PECOTA doesn't update until later in the day, but 0.4% as of yesterday. I'm still selling. LOL - If Minny wins rest of the way at their pythagorean we have to make up more like 10 games in 65 remaining instead of 5, and hope Cleveland doesn't get hot either. I mean I suppose a Chinese spy balloon could fall out the sky during a Twins home game at Target, land over the bullpen and suffocate the whole staff. So watch us win it by a game and a half..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 1 hour ago, mtutiger said: My guess is that they are going to sell, but they are going to attempt to do so in a way that returns ML-ready or close-to-ML ready talent Right, think Austin Jackson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: Right, think Austin Jackson. BINGO!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 PS: We can only hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 (edited) 28 minutes ago, LongLiveMaroth said: Because A. I have no life and B. this kind of thing is fun for me I have been looking through potential trade partners and their prospect lists and just checking to see who may match up with us in both need and prospects. Texas: Foscue- Already talked about this it makes a lot of sense given Harris' love of a good hit tool and him being blocked. Arizona: Blaze Alexander, seems like a RH McKinstry with a bigger arm. He doesn't have the high hit tool but seems to be in the mold I think that Harris and Hinch like. Tampa Bay: Osleivis Basabe 60 hit tool and has played all around the INF but not sure if TB would be willing to trade him for a rental. Baltimore: Cesar Prieto is a lower ranked player but has a solid hit tool hitting .333 with a 19/25 BB:K split between AA and AAA. And oddly enough, the way the races are shaking out, the team that should be the most desperate to make a move to solidify their position would be the Twins and sending Lorenzen or ERod there would seal our fate, though it probably does the same to Cleveland, which would go a long way to making it palatable. Edited July 21, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 1 hour ago, mtutiger said: My guess is that they are going to sell, but they are going to attempt to do so in a way that returns ML-ready or close-to-ML ready talent. Easier said than done, but that's why Scott Harris got the contract. I do think it's worth taking a step back and recognizing that Michael Lorenzen, overall, has been a success for this front office... there was a lot of skepticism when they signed him, but one of the things Harris discussed when he was hired was becoming a place where players could go to get better. And that vision largely played out with Lorenzen, which will benefit the team as he will likely will return more at the trade deadline than what one would have expected he might back at the beginning of the season. I wonder what the baseball insider perception of Tiger pitching is, specifically related to development and deployment at the higher levels. It ranks pretty well on here, but we're biased. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 On 7/18/2023 at 10:12 AM, Tigermojo said: We've been stuck with Miggy for seven years and now we're stuck with Javy for four more years. It's going to be ok. Al Avila can't hurt us anymore. Sure he can. Al Avila is hurting us right now, and he'll be hurting us next year, too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 On 7/18/2023 at 10:14 AM, Edman85 said: DD signed Miggy... You misspelled Mr. I. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 On 7/18/2023 at 2:47 PM, Tigermojo said: Looking at Javy's splits, he hits better in interleague games and against AL Central teams (familiarity issue). He hits better in 3 ball counts. He hits really well on balls to right field, good on balls pulled and horrible on balls up the middle. Maybe he's listening to CMO too much with his up the middle approach. People listen to CMo? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 On 7/18/2023 at 2:46 PM, Sports_Freak said: Would fans really not want Miggy since 2008 just because his 2021-23 contract was too expensive? Do fans actually believe we would have spent his money on other quality players? I'll take the last few years of him being WAY overpaid for the joy he has brought me as a fan. A Triple Crown, people. Nobody can ever take away that achievement. He's really been bad since 2017, not just 2021, but if he still gave you joy throughout the contract all the way up to today, then at least we got something positive out of the deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: Right, think Austin Jackson. That was an unusual trade. Basically we traded a young CF to get a younger one. Of course other players were involved, too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 (edited) 2 minutes ago, chasfh said: He's really been bad since 2017, not just 2021, but if he still gave you joy throughout the contract all the way up to today, then at least we got something positive out of the deal. If I’m being honest, I can’t keep my eyes off the Miggy Milestone tracker in LF every time I go to a game. So, there’s that. Edited July 21, 2023 by Tenacious D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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