2023 Trade Deadline

[chasfh]

14 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

No args about the nature of the trade possibly being hard to duplicate. The reference to Austin was less about the nature of the trade than that his was the profile of the player the Tigers are/should be targeting - i.e. no established MLB value but high up side and damn close to can't miss.

Sure, and I believe it's more likely that there will be a hit in an eight-man three-team trade than in a straight two-man trade.

[mtutiger]

I'll go back to what I said, I believe, in a different thread regarding Avila.... he moved WAY too slow, but he did bring in some PD guys from outside of the system, many of whom were retained after Harris was hired. Garko being the most notable, but others as well. And I don't think it's a stretch to suggest that some of the improvements we have seen from some of Avila's guys (Parker Meadows maybe the best example) is tied to that. 

It's not an excuse for his failures, and heads did roll after Harris took over, but because of those hires being in place, it wasn't a total gut job for Harris either. In that respect, it could have been worse.

[SoCalTiger]

5 hours ago, mtutiger said:

My guess is that they are going to sell, but they are going to attempt to do so in a way that returns ML-ready or close-to-ML ready talent. Easier said than done, but that's why Scott Harris got the contract.

I do think it's worth taking a step back and recognizing that Michael Lorenzen, overall, has been a success for this front office... there was a lot of skepticism when they signed him, but one of the things Harris discussed when he was hired was becoming a place where players could go to get better. And that vision largely played out with Lorenzen, which will benefit the team as he will likely will return more at the trade deadline than what one would have expected he might back at the beginning of the season.

Not only a win that Lorenzen did well but it plays perfectly in Harris desire to build a reputation of players coming to Detroit and getting better. 

[1984Echoes]

16 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I'll go back to what I said, I believe, in a different thread regarding Avila.... he moved WAY too slow, but he did bring in some PD guys from outside of the system, many of whom were retained after Harris was hired. Garko being the most notable, but others as well. And I don't think it's a stretch to suggest that some of the improvements we have seen from some of Avila's guys (Parker Meadows maybe the best example) is tied to that. 

It's not an excuse for his failures, and heads did roll after Harris took over, but because of those hires being in place, it wasn't a total gut job for Harris either. In that respect, it could have been worse.

I think worst case in evaluating Avila begins with:

He started to put in place some of the pieces required to move this organization in the right direction (Caesar, analytics, PD, etc.). He picked a lot of players who MIGHT be a part of the next Tigers playoff-contending team. He definitely lucked getting Hinch, which pushed the Org further towards both analytics, and understanding how to use them.

In the end, he was probably in over his head. Not a good trader. Didn't have a full understanding of how to actually utilize analytics. Was too late, too little, and too lazy (fell in love with his acquisitions and did very low levels of churn for an organization that NEEDED it...).

And got the chopping block. 

But if all he did was point us in the right direction and take a few baby steps... And Harris gets us all the way back...

I can live with that. (And I've been a higher supporter of Avila, at least prior to 2022... then most.)

 

 

Edited July 21, 2023 by 1984Echoes

[Tiger337]

19 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I'll go back to what I said, I believe, in a different thread regarding Avila.... he moved WAY too slow, but he did bring in some PD guys from outside of the system, many of whom were retained after Harris was hired. Garko being the most notable, but others as well. And I don't think it's a stretch to suggest that some of the improvements we have seen from some of Avila's guys (Parker Meadows maybe the best example) is tied to that. 

It's not an excuse for his failures, and heads did roll after Harris took over, but because of those hires being in place, it wasn't a total gut job for Harris either. In that respect, it could have been worse.

He could have been Randy Smith.  

[gehringer_2]

24 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Not a good trader.

This above all. The lack of value return on the dismemberment of the remnants of the 2014 playoff team put the Tigers below expansion team ground zero instead the good leg up into the future they should have had. 

Second would be he lack of urgency in reforming the org. Could have moved much faster. Now it's possible some of that was ownership resistance to too much change too fast, and sometimes you have to wait until people you want working somewhere else become available, no way to know much about those - so maybe some slack on that.

Third would be that he wasn't a very astute sale rack shopper. They never should have wasted so much time trying to make primary pieces out of so many guys like Niko and JaCoby jones. They weren't good, weren't going to be good. Move on and do better.

Edited July 21, 2023 by gehringer_2

[mtutiger]

8 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Third would be that he wasn't a very astute sale rack shopper. They never should have wasted so much time trying to make primary pieces out of so many guys like Niko and JaCoby jones. They weren't good, weren't going to be good. Move on and do better.

Honestly, the Castros come to mind too... after a while, it ends up about as old as watching Matlock reruns when you run those guys out there over and over again and expect different results.

It really came to a head in 2022 in that, despite fielding quite possibly the worst offense in the modern history of the game, there just wasn't a ton of transactions or waiver wire activity. I'd argue that the cart wasn't really fully shaken up at all on last year's team until Kerry Carpenter was promoted, and that occurred on the day of his firing (which leads to questions about whose doing that actually even was).

Harris, for his part, is completely different in that he has worked the wire a decent amount and has, in a couple of cases, actually found useful players in the process (Tyler Holton maybe the best example). For whatever reason, it just wasn't something Al would do.

Edited July 21, 2023 by mtutiger

[mtutiger]

35 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

In the end, he was probably in over his head. Not a good trader. Didn't have a full understanding of how to actually utilize analytics. Was too late, too little, and too lazy (fell in love with his acquisitions and did very low levels of churn for an organization that NEEDED it...).

And got the chopping block. 

I think this is a fair read. In a lot of ways, I think he understood the problems, and even did a few useful things for the Org to try to move the ball forward. But ultimately he was just out of his league when it comes to the actual operation of the club and making the moves necessary to rebuild and compete.

34 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

He could have been Randy Smith.  

We fought this out a while ago, but Randy really was the worst GM in franchise history. I really can't think of any moves he made that were redeemable, at the time or in retrospect.

[Stanley70]

Avila would have benfitted greatly if he had brought in some younger analytically inclined minds into his front office. Instead he surrounded himself with a bunch of 60 somethings who probably had less of an clue on how baseball was changing than he did.

The fact that he didn't look around and see how the Tigers were falling behind should have resulted in his dismissal much sooner. Smart leaders understand what they do know and what they do not know.

[Edman85]

4 hours ago, chasfh said:

You misspelled Mr. I.

The point was more that the extension was signed 17 months before Avila took over.

[Edman85]

7 minutes ago, Stanley70 said:

Avila would have benfitted greatly if he had brought in some younger analytically inclined minds into his front office. Instead he surrounded himself with a bunch of 60 somethings who probably had less of an clue on how baseball was changing than he did.

I don't think this is true. Yes, Littlefield and Chadd had too much say for much of his term; I will grant you that. But Menzin kept rising through the ranks, Sartori was hired and rose the ranks. Logue, etc... And the analytics staff grew from basically half a man year when he was hired to about 10-15 depending on if you include the software developers or player dev analysts among those ranks.

[SeattleMike]

3 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Taking a step back again.... Granted a lot of it is the division that they play in, but the fact that it's late July and there's actually a not-totally-unserious debate about whether to sell or buy among the fanbase seems like a win for what we expected going into this season.

As you admit, it's the division that is responsible for this unexpected debate. After the first 2 weeks of the season many fans were expecting a 100-loss season (or much worse). That the Tigers have been a .500 team since then is a pleasant surprise. 

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

... It really came to a head in 2022 in that, despite fielding quite possibly the worst offense in the modern history of the game, there just wasn't a ton of transactions or waiver wire activity. I'd argue that the cart wasn't really fully shaken up at all on last year's team until Kerry Carpenter was promoted, and that occurred on the day of his firing...

I turned on Avila when he drafted Jobe over Mayer.

I was beside myself with...

But I calmed down and said "ok, maybe he turns into Clemens or whatever..."

And then it was at least encouraging when he signed Baez, Eduardo and Chafin before 2022.

But I was still way beyond miffed that he passed on Mayer to take Jobe, I don't give a hot damn about the ****ing spin rates. Excuse my language.

But the lack of response to 2022, the lack of depth, another weak-trade-deadline (and I actually like the Fulmer for Gipson-Long trade...) but overall... such weak trade deadlines by a very weak trader-NOT-Dave... and the foot-dragging on giving Kerry at least a shot at hitting MLB pitching...

Led to a crapload of nails in the coffin for me. Not just one nail... But multiple. 

When they dumped him and hired Harris... I was ready for it.

Yessiree Scott.

[kdog]

 

[Tenacious D]

17 minutes ago, SeattleMike said:

As you admit, it's the division that is responsible for this unexpected debate. After the first 2 weeks of the season many fans were expecting a 100-loss season (or much worse). That the Tigers have been a .500 team since then is a pleasant surprise. 

And against all odds—every member of our starting rotation has missed time to injuries and our entire OF that broke camp was on the IL at the same time.  A very good team would have struggled with all of that.

[RandyMarsh]

 

[Tenacious D]

Just now, kdog said:

 

Sorry, but this is the definition of selling high.

[1984Echoes]

2 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

And against all odds—every member of our starting rotation has missed time to injuries and our entire OF that broke camp was on the IL at the same time.  A very good team would have struggled with all of that.

And yet, we're 8 games under .500 at roughly 60% of the season...

Not a horrible spot for the Org even despite all the problems (injuries, lack of O, etc...)

[1984Echoes]

3 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Sorry, but this is the definition of selling high.

It depends on what the offers are...

[SeattleMike]

28 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Sorry, but this is the definition of selling high.

I can't imagine any trade scenario in which the Tigers would receive a return that could possibly exceed the current or future value of Carpenter. I guess two 50 grade position prospects? But who would make that trade? 

Edited July 21, 2023 by SeattleMike

[Tenacious D]

24 minutes ago, SeattleMike said:

I can't imagine any trade scenario in which the Tigers would receive a return that could possibly exceed the current or future value of Carpenter. I guess two 50 grade position prospects? But who would make that trade? 

He might also be a DH only version of Brennan Boesch.  I wouldn’t flip him for a prospect (probably), but if a team needed to shed a salary of an established veteran or had a glut of 3B, that might be something.

Just nice to see that he’s coveted—I trust Harris and his posse to figure it out.

[Stanley70]

1 hour ago, Edman85 said:

I don't think this is true. Yes, Littlefield and Chadd had too much say for much of his term; I will grant you that. But Menzin kept rising through the ranks, Sartori was hired and rose the ranks. Logue, etc... And the analytics staff grew from basically half a man year when he was hired to about 10-15 depending on if you include the software developers or player dev analysts among those ranks.

Avila made those changes about a year before his firing. In that press conference he also reiterated how the Tigers would not change most of their traditional ways of development. 

Yes he did make changes toward the end, but most of his tenure he surrounded himself with Littlefield Chadd, and Lunetta. Gardenhire was brought in and lasted 3 years for effs sakes. I don't think that was the kind of decision that a progressive front office makes.

[Edman85]

Just now, Stanley70 said:

Avila made those changes about a year before his firing. In that press conference he also reiterated how the Tigers would not change most of their traditional ways of development. 

Yes he did make changes toward the end, but most of his tenure he surrounded himself with Littlefield Chadd, and Lunetta. Gardenhire was brought in and lasted 3 years for effs sakes. I don't think that was the kind of decision that a progressive front office makes.

Player dev changes were near the end. Menzin and Sartori were promoted to AGM his final year. The performance science department was created 2020, I believe. (I remember being really excited about that hire only for it to be rendered moot by the cancelled season)

But it is an undeniable fact that the analytics staff growth was mostly early in his stint if not steady throughout. There was no analytics department in 2015 (Menzin and Smith were both doing it part time). Sartori was hired in late 2015 as well as a few interns and part timers, and the staff grew to its current size roughly 2018 or so.

Harris did expand things further his first offseason, and I expect the standard second offseason overhaul as more of "his guys" are available.

[RandyMarsh]

I legit have no idea what type of prospect(s) we can get for Lorenzen and Rodriguez, could we get atleast 1 50+ grade guy for each? If so then you have to deal them but if all we can get are multiple fringe 40-45 type guys I assume just keep them and try to play meaningful baseball the last couple months of the season. This is Assuming of course we are still within 4 games come deadline.

Yeah we may only have a 5% shot of making the playoffs but what's the percentage that a fringe prospect amounts to anything useful in the big leagues? Can't be much more than that and even if we don't actually make the playoffs just potentially playing in meaningful games could be worth something to the team and at the least make things more enjoyable for us fans.

 

[Sports_Freak]

1 hour ago, 1984Echoes said:

I turned on Avila when he drafted Jobe over Mayer.

I was beside myself with...

But I calmed down and said "ok, maybe he turns into Clemens or whatever..."

And then it was at least encouraging when he signed Baez, Eduardo and Chafin before 2022.

But I was still way beyond miffed that he passed on Mayer to take Jobe, I don't give a hot damn about the ****ing spin rates. Excuse my language.

But the lack of response to 2022, the lack of depth, another weak-trade-deadline (and I actually like the Fulmer for Gipson-Long trade...) but overall... such weak trade deadlines by a very weak trader-NOT-Dave... and the foot-dragging on giving Kerry at least a shot at hitting MLB pitching...

Led to a crapload of nails in the coffin for me. Not just one nail... But multiple. 

When they dumped him and hired Harris... I was ready for it.

Yessiree Scott.

I turned on Avila when he extended Brad. It was a very lazy move.