2023 Trade Deadline

[gehringer_2]

3 hours ago, Edman85 said:

Player dev changes were near the end. Menzin and Sartori were promoted to AGM his final year. The performance science department was created 2020, I believe. (I remember being really excited about that hire only for it to be rendered moot by the cancelled season)

But it is an undeniable fact that the analytics staff growth was mostly early in his stint if not steady throughout. There was no analytics department in 2015 (Menzin and Smith were both doing it part time). Sartori was hired in late 2015 as well as a few interns and part timers, and the staff grew to its current size roughly 2018 or so.

Harris did expand things further his first offseason, and I expect the standard second offseason overhaul as more of "his guys" are available.

Avila was also bringing in technology as he went - the rapsodo's and other biometric systems. He was not tech averse nor unfamiliar with what was available and he brought a fair amount of it in. I'm not sure he personally understood all it was telling him. (I've noted before I think chasing pitching prospects with high breaking ball spin but flat [low spin] fastballs is a basic misunderstanding of how the best pitchers get guys out plus it sets up your favorite ortho-surgeons to stay really busy - with Jobe likely to be next for the Tigers.)

But Al never semed to get the team all the way to the front of the curve on anything.

Edited July 22, 2023 by gehringer_2

[Jim Cowan]

I think that he knew what to do, and was pretty bad at doing it.

[RandyMarsh]

To me how he handled the JD and JV trades were the most baffling to me. For JD I will never agree with trading him 3 weeks before the deadline unless you got a true can't miss Godfather type offer which he obviously didn't get. 

The JV trade is more hear say but IF the rumors are true about the Astros listing guys that we're untouchable and gave Avila a list of guys he could take then I would've told them to screw off. I'd make them give me 1 of those guys, if they refuse then just wait till the offseason to trade him, it's not like he had to be traded then. Instead it seems like he just settled on their offer but admittedly that is just hear say. Either way I don't think it was a good idea to have the centerpiece of the trade be a 19 year old pitcher, I would've much preferred either a pitcher closer to the majors or preferably a bat. 

[Jim Cowan]

Yeah trading JD for sweet f all was dumb.  There was no market for righthanded power without speed or defense - Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion found that out the previous winter in free agency.  So wait for the deadline but you're probably not going to get anything for a rental.  In that case, keep him and let the fans enjoy him, and say that you hope to re-sign him.

[gehringer_2]

6 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

Yeah trading JD for sweet f all was dumb.  There was no market for righthanded power without speed or defense - Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion found that out the previous winter in free agency.  So wait for the deadline but you're probably not going to get anything for a rental.  In that case, keep him and let the fans enjoy him, and say that you hope to re-sign him.

If indeed the market for his services was not that great at that point, they should have known they could sign him at a cost that would have actually increased his trade value later. If they had had to, they could have lived with the same 5/110 he got from Boston, but they wouldn't have had to because after a big 2018, a JD with 4 years left at $20M/yr would have been a much hotter trade commodity than JD the Rental.

[RandyMarsh]

I will say though despite Avila botching the JV trade he did get a little unlucky in the fact that from May to about mid July of that year JV just so happened to throw the worst stuff of his career which tanked his value and had teams like the Cubs and Dodgers going elsewhere by acquiring Quintana and Darvish. We probably could've extracted more value if Verlander never went through that stretch. 

[SoCalTiger]

The worst part of the JD trade was Al forcing the manager  to play Lugo so much because he was desperate for a miracle. 

[Jim Cowan]

19 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

If indeed the market for his services was not that great at that point, they should have known they could sign him at a cost that would have actually increased his trade value later. If they had had to, they could have lived with the same 5/110 he got from Boston, but they wouldn't have had to because after a big 2018, a JD with 4 years left at $20M/yr would have been a much hotter trade commodity than JD the Rental.

Theoretically true but I don't think that Dombrowski was going to let him play for anyone except the Red Sox and would have kept bidding higher and higher.  But your scenario would have been the best outcome.

[RandyMarsh]

Being competitive in 2016 probably ended up being a curse for them cause that fooled them into not selling off that offseason. They may have not gotten a ton more but it had to of been better than what they ended up with if they traded JD with a full year of control, JV coming off a 2nd place CY finish and even Kinsler who was coming off 6 WAR in 2016. 

[gehringer_2]

32 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

I will say though despite Avila botching the JV trade he did get a little unlucky in the fact that from May to about mid July of that year JV just so happened to throw the worst stuff of his career which tanked his value and had teams like the Cubs and Dodgers going elsewhere by acquiring Quintana and Darvish. We probably could've extracted more value if Verlander never went through that stretch. 

same deal though. JV's pitch data (it was at Brooks Baseball before Statcast) was already on the upswing by then. Fine, hold him till the offseason when he has just finished with 8 or 9 dominant starts. The deadline may often be the best time to deal, no law says there are not circumstances where it is not. Just failure of imagination to understand all the options that were really available. It's the same common logic fail you see all the time - a person or org starts out on a course of action that follows from a set of premises, then conditions change, the initial premises become void, but the course of action is on autopilot despite having become inappropriate. All Al knew is he had to sell by midnight. Wrong.

Which in turn raises the question - as of 2017, did Al or whoever constituted the rest of the brain trust even understand what the data on Brooks should have been telling them that summer?

Edited July 22, 2023 by gehringer_2

[Jim Cowan]

3 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Just failure of imagination to understand all the options that were really available. It's the same common logic fail you see all the time - a person or org starts out on a course of action that follows from a set of premises, then conditions change, the initial premises become void, but the course of action is on autopilot despite having become inappropriate.

Yes I think that strategy can be fixed, but tactics have to be flexible for changing circumstances.  So the strategy might be "get value for JD" but the tactic "at the deadline" shouldn't be carved in stone.  And 3 weeks before the deadline, JFC.

I liked the shoutout to the Tigers in that article about Jatnk Diaz, someone mentioned that their evaluation process was flexible enough that, late in the draft run-up, they could put some resources in on Diaz that not been planned for, with a positive outcome.

[Cruzer1]

It sounds like Carpenter is receiving heavy interest according to Morosi. But the Tigers feel they can compete sooner rather than later, and Carpenter is a player they want to keep.

[Jim Cowan]

17 minutes ago, Cruzer1 said:

It sounds like Carpenter is receiving heavy interest according to Morosi. But the Tigers feel they can compete sooner rather than later, and Carpenter is a player they want to keep.

I should think so, he is looking like the second coming of JD.

[Cruzer1]

9 minutes ago, Jim Cowan said:

I should think so, he is looking like the second coming of JD.

He's hitting the high fastball better than anyone else I have seen.

[casimir]

18 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Lorenzen is really the only piece of evidence that I have (not an insider at all), but I don't think he was BSing when he said that the Tigers appealed to him as a place to be better as a player. 

Leads me to believe that they are at least respected in the pitching department.

The relief pitching seems to have done an about face from the previous regimes.  But you might be right as far as starting pitching is concerned.  I may have been thinking more about the relief pitching.

[Cruzer1]

 

[casimir]

It'd be interesting to know what kind of return Carpenter would yield.  The contradictory offense & defense can be tolerated for one DH type, but the Tigers have Malloy waiting in the wings and Baddoo on the team.  He's a free agent after 2028 shortly after turning 31 years old.  So he is controlled through the majority of his prime seasons.  It'd be tough to part with one of the better offensive players from a wholly inept offense this season, but it might make sense to do so.

[gehringer_2]

8 hours ago, Cruzer1 said:

It sounds like Carpenter is receiving heavy interest according to Morosi. But the Tigers feel they can compete sooner rather than later, and Carpenter is a player they want to keep.

"The good GM" rule #1: if you are building a team, don't move guys you don't have replacements for.

If you assume Riley is going to remain primarily a gap hitter, then Carpenter is your primary LH thumper and there aren't any LH power bats close other than Keith, who is unproven. P. Meadows' stock is high, he is showing some power, but even if he breaks through I think he profiles more like Riley. Of course if Austin Meadows ever played again he would be make Kerry more tradeable....doesn't seem likely though and certainly not this season.

[Shinzaki]

Alex Trevino is out for the year....what could we pry from the Yankees for Jake?  I know...it violates GM rule #1

[RandyMarsh]

Yeah I have no interest in trading Carpenter not only for the reasons G2 outlined but also I suspect that given his relatively small sample size along with not having a premium prospect pedigree I just don't think we'd get much for him anyway but that is just an assumption on my part. 

[Sports_Freak]

3 hours ago, casimir said:

It'd be interesting to know what kind of return Carpenter would yield.  The contradictory offense & defense can be tolerated for one DH type, but the Tigers have Malloy waiting in the wings and Baddoo on the team.  He's a free agent after 2028 shortly after turning 31 years old.  So he is controlled through the majority of his prime seasons.  It'd be tough to part with one of the better offensive players from a wholly inept offense this season, but it might make sense to do so.

It does make sense to listen to offers. They can always say no to any weak offers and counter with a dream trade. Otherwise, hard pass....

[Shinzaki]

1 hour ago, Shinzaki said:

Alex Trevino is out for the year....what could we pry from the Yankees for Jake?  I know...it violates GM rule #1

It's not 1990...Jose Trevino is out for the year

[mtutiger]

42 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Yeah I have no interest in trading Carpenter not only for the reasons G2 outlined but also I suspect that given his relatively small sample size along with not having a premium prospect pedigree I just don't think we'd get much for him anyway but that is just an assumption on my part. 

I would take the fact that other contenders would trade for him as a piece of evidence that he's more real than not. A complement of sorts.

In and of itself, though, it's evidence that the smart move would be to hold unless someone wanted to pay a premium for his services. He's just controllable for far too long, and his power bat from the left side, as G2 suggests, just doesn't have a lot of match for anyone coming up in the system.

[casimir]

31 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

It does make sense to listen to offers. They can always say no to any weak offers and counter with a dream trade. Otherwise, hard pass....

Sure, Carpenter’s bat and cost are assets.  At the same time, there are quite a few LHH OFs in or close to Detroit.  Obviously Greene is the most well rounded of the bunch and that’s the guy to build around.  All others have some flaw or another.

[1984Echoes]

I got reamed for being pro-Cody Ross-for-Steve Colyer trade back in the day. I understood what DD was shooting for... Cody was a productive player at a certain level but DD was hunting late innings domination. Obviously, Colyer/ DD/ (and myself) flopped on that point...

The point I am making now is that, if Kerry Carpenter gets traded, it better be to improve the team. One or two key guys in return that seriously increase the talent of the Detroit Tigers, and not Toledo or Erie with crap results in MLB. If we trade away a productive talent for a couple of lottery tickets that flop into nothing... we lost value. I learned my lesson on that... although you still take chances on trades like that (same direction or in REVERSE), such as Paredes for Mathews. But... we better win this one if there's a possibility of it happening... IMO.

I don't want to trade JD for crap, but we did. I was OK with trading Ross for Colyer. But that ended up crap. So did trading Suarez. I don't want to trade Kerry for crap.

So if the intent is to IMPROVE the talent level of the Tigers... what team is actually out there that would be willing to give us a top prospect or two for Kerry that will improve the Tigers?

Because I don't see it.

I don't see any offer possible (go ahead and show me one) for Kerry Carpenter the DH that makes our team better, now or in the future.

He just doesn't carry that kind of trade value. So... the ONLY result we can get for trading Carpenter, is a loss in talent. No gain.

IMO.

And for that reason, I have no interest whatsoever in trading Kerry. But... sure, blow my doors off with a trade. A 100% guarantee of a win. Show me that and I might change my mind. Until then...