2023 Trade Deadline

[chasfh]

53 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

yes. We had weak teams without 'everyday' players under Leyland, Ausmus and Gardenhire, but my strong impression is that Hinch still makes a lot more lineup, PH, and field subsitutions than his predecessors. I think he has a more 'interventionist' mindset that just 'let the boys play'. Logically you would have to if you are big into analytics. They don't do you any good if you don't make the active moves to implement what they suggest. And take his views on relief pitching. He is sold on the idea of using relievers in patterns based on varying their stuff and delivery as an active way to make the bullpen more effective in aggregate. That's not something we've seen here before. And I'm not knocking it at all - it seems to work - but it betrays the strength of his mindset that says "detailed in game management makes a difference"

And I would counter that Hinch has to push buttons now because he did not have players he can plug in everyday, not necessarily because he loves loves loves pushing buttons. I would guess that once he does have everyday players, he will push buttons a lot less. I guess in a couple of years we will see.

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

I had no clue that the Tigers front office had Candy's 2023 numbers when evaluating a decision to tender or nontender in 2022. 

I should ask Scott Harris to pick out some lotto numbers for me to play as well.

And I had no clue 2022 negated his entire history before that. Did you think Jeimer was done done as well?

[RedRamage]

25 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

wow.  me likey (and I no nothing about Armbruester).

That's a pitcher right... please tell me that Armbruester is a pitcher. If not that's totally a waste of an potentially awesome baseball player name.

[mtutiger]

3 minutes ago, chasfh said:

And I had no clue 2022 negated his entire history before that. 

I think you and I both know that previous years performance tends to weigh heavily at the negotiating table.

The term "contract year" exists for a reason, after all.

[Tiger337]

That fake trade had me going enough for me to be looking up stats and scouting reports.  It looked real.  It would have been a good return, but not too good to be true.  

[chasfh]

35 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

In the context of making a non-tender decision (and knowing there were likely conversations between the Tigers and Candy's agent at the time, undoubtedly), I doubt the decision to tender or non-tender exclusively comes down to a what the projection system says.

Which is exactly what I suggested here.

 

[theroundsquare]

1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

I think you and I both know that previous years performance tends to weigh heavily at the negotiating table.

The term "contract year" exists for a reason, after all.

I digress, but back in the day there used to be an NFL promo on Fox Sports with Terrell Owens, and the narrator said something like, 'follow Terrell Owens on Fox in his most lucrative adventure yet: contract year!'  I thought that was hilarious.

Carry on about Jeimer, now

[Tigeraholic1]

1 minute ago, theroundsquare said:

I digress, but back in the day there used to be an NFL promo on Fox Sports with Terrell Owens, and the narrator said something like, 'follow Terrell Owens on Fox in his most lucrative adventure yet: contract year!'  I thought that was hilarious.

Carry on about Jeimer, now

Jeimer debate is pointless.......

[chasfh]

8 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I think you and I both know that previous years performance tends to weigh heavily at the negotiating table.

The term "contract year" exists for a reason, after all.

Sure, as 20-20 hindsight narrative.

[chasfh]

 

 

[1984Echoes]

15 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

That fake trade had me going enough for me to be looking up stats and scouting reports.  It looked real.  It would have been a good return, but not too good to be true.  

No that was definitely too good to be true,

For Lorenzen & Cisnero?

[casimir]

1 minute ago, chasfh said:

 

 

Edwin Jackson is not impressed by Rich Hill's resume of franchises.

[casimir]

39 minutes ago, KL2 said:

You know how i know you got duped?

No blue bird in the corner?

[mtutiger]

6 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Sure, as 20-20 hindsight narrative.

My position on the discussion with Candelario has been pretty consistent dating back to when they made the decision. 

For everyone else's sake, I'm gonna get off Candy's Wild Ride now and wait to see which dominoes fall among players actually on this team right now.

[casimir]

20 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

That fake trade had me going enough for me to be looking up stats and scouting reports.  It looked real.  It would have been a good return, but not too good to be true.  

I was glancing at the Oriole IF prospects on MLB pipeline last night.  I just wanted to be prepared in case Scott Harris texted me.

[lordstanley]

I was at that game. Sitting past the first base line when Jackson got pulled, then was at the merry go round when circulated that we got Price. Electric atmosphere. Never expected the hopes would fizzle so meekly in the Baltimore series two months later. 

 

 

[casimir]

1 minute ago, lordstanley said:

I was at that game. Sitting past the first base line when Jackson got pulled, then was at the merry go round when circulated that we got Price. Electric atmosphere. Never expected the hopes would fizzle so meekly in the Baltimore series two months later. 

 

 

I forgot that was the middle of a plate appearance.

[gehringer_2]

42 minutes ago, chasfh said:

And I had no clue 2022 negated his entire history before that. Did you think Jeimer was done done as well?

The wildcard is always a player's physical condition. Probably even by the time they first make it as a pro athlete they have already accumlated a whole menu of more and less serious injuries, bumps, strains, wear and tear, that may or may not go on to to heal completely or alternately nag at them later.  I would guess a large percentage of 'bad' years have something to do with a player not feeling 100%. Will it go away? Will he find a different training regime that solves the issue? Will it get worse? Will it worry him enough he's hesitant to go 100%? These are all factors that have a big impact on performance but do not correlate in any way to whatever past performance was - so there is nothing in history to help you know/predict what the future will be. 

Maybe the most obvious example would be Cabrera. Over the last 3-4 yrs, the condition of his knee would be the single far better estimator of his near term performance than anything you could project from his 20 yrs of accumulated performance record. He's maybe a case in the extreme limit, but that is what it is. 

I'd bet that if the Tigers thought they would get the actual 2023 Candelario in 2023, they would have not have blinked at $7M, but for reasons we can only speculate about, they didn't think that. Candi's history of wrist issues were something even the fan's know about. Maybe there were other things they saw over the year that made them doubt his comeback potential. Whatever, it turns out they may have been wrong about about the internal scouting of their own player. Maybe his comeback should have been predictable, but OTOH maybe it's a black swan. We don't know what info they looked at to get to their decision.

All you can really go by judging an org is whether they get it right more than wrong over time, and Harris is yet to build enough record to do that.

Edited August 1, 2023 by gehringer_2

[1984Echoes]

44 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I think Torkelson should be open for the right asking price, yes...

The only problem with considering a trade of Tork!!! right now is that we'd be selling at a low point and not get the return we would like for him... So I guess it would depend on one's viewpoint of Tork:

Believe in his upside = we won't get the right asking price = so wait for his development curve to reach a higher point.

DON'T believe in his upside or that he's good enough/ we could find better = the right asking price might not be much but go ahead and take it anyways.

Personally, I believe he has a much higher upside than what he's shown so far. So my asking price might be higher than others and I don't think we'd get a good enough return offer to contemplate moving him at this point...

 

 

Edited August 1, 2023 by 1984Echoes

[Tiger337]

14 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

No that was definitely too good to be true,

For Lorenzen & Cisnero?

I don't know.  I'm not too good at judging prospect trades because most of them don't amount to anything.  Kjerstad is certainly well regarded.  

[Shinzaki]

Bat Boy thinks we should have kept Candelario

[1984Echoes]

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

I don't know.  I'm not too good at judging prospect trades because most of them don't amount to anything.  Kjerstad is certainly well regarded.  

And even though I said it was too rich a trade to believe...

I ALSO believed it for a second...!

"HOLY CRAP!!!"

"Wait, wait a second..."

"Crap. Confirmed as... crap."

"Oh well".

"Crap"

(all in the space of less than 30 seconds...)

[bobrob2004]

Here are Candelario's wRC+ seasons with the Tigers:

2018 - 93

2019 - 73

2020 - 140 

2021 - 120

2022 - 80

In 3 of the 5 years he was below average and 2020 could very well be thrown out because of how messed up that season was.  History suggested that he was a below average hitter and that's the reason they let him go.  

[Tenacious D]

22 minutes ago, lordstanley said:

I was at that game. Sitting past the first base line when Jackson got pulled, then was at the merry go round when circulated that we got Price. Electric atmosphere. Never expected the hopes would fizzle so meekly in the Baltimore series two months later. 

 

 

I was there, too.  Was watching Twitter as much as I was the game.

[1984Echoes]

9 minutes ago, bobrob2004 said:

Here are Candelario's wRC+ seasons with the Tigers:

2018 - 93

2019 - 73

2020 - 140 

2021 - 120

2022 - 80

In 3 of the 5 years he was below average and 2020 could very well be thrown out because of how messed up that season was.  History suggested that he was a below average hitter and that's the reason they let him go.  

I prefer this one (OPS+):

2017 (Det) - 133

2018 (Det) - 91

2019 (Det) - 70

2020 (Det) - 137 

2021 (Det) - 121

2022 (Det) - 82

2023 (Wash) - 128

Which tells me that Candy is an ABOVE-average hitter and that 2019 and 2022 were simply outliers.