2023 Trade Deadline

[mtutiger]

3 minutes ago, kdog said:

yes but keeping E-rod on your roster carries risk with injury and the contract. Holding the line has a downside...and Harris is eating it now. 

One imagines that there are few decisions that a baseball executive makes that dont come with some level of risk. 

[mtutiger]

8 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

First big test is a load of hot take hooey.

If we're being honest, Seidel is just giving the people what they want.

[kdog]

ESPN: 

Quote

Detroit Tigers

The weakness of the Tigers' division, along with their ability to be not terrible this season, almost had me on board with the idea of them doing something reckless at the deadline. That didn't happen, unless you think that almost trading away Eduardo Rodriguez was reckless. Detroit's moves consisted of dealing walk-year starter Michael Lorenzen to the Phillies for a solid bat-first infield prospect in Hao-Yu Lee. The Tigers could never quite catch fire at the right time for me to generate any real passion about their deadline behavior. They could have perhaps gotten something for one of their solid relievers -- Alex Lange, Tyler Holton, et al -- but I'm not too worked up about that. And when after the season I'm working up my first 2024 projections, I'll approve of E-Rod still being a part of that rotation.

 

[oblong]

4 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

First big test is a load of hot take hooey.

As I said earlier.... there's risks with ERod.  The opt out, both taking it and not taking it.  You could get a rental.  You could get stuck with junk.  The fact he left last year for whatever reason.  Fans seem to think those risks meant he needed to be moved especially since this year is presumed lost.  Fair enough.

But those are risks other teams know and would have to assume.  Therefore his value is affected.  So do you just dump him for a random minor leaguer with little hope?  I can't see a team willing to move much to get him for those reasons alone.  I said all along Harris didn't have to make trades just to make trades. This isn't 2017. There's no crime in keeping a solid player for the fans this year who already bought tickets. 

[Tiger337]

12 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

First big test is a load of hot take hooey.

The first big test line is stupid, but I think it's fair to say that the failure to get anything for Rodriguez is on him regardless of circumstances.  

[oblong]

13 minutes ago, kdog said:

yes but keeping E-rod on your roster carries risk with injury and the contract. Holding the line has a downside...and Harris is eating it now. 

Those are also risks the obtaining team has to carry and that factors into the value they offer.  The Tigers can't force a team to make a deal.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

I get that Scott Harris might have been screwed over by ERod if and when he changed his mind at the last minute and didn't want to go to LA. That's not on Harris at all and I genuinely feel bad for him. The player has the right to change their mind, but you have to be open and upfront about it. 

However, what I do believe does fall on him is not having a backup plan/back up team to fall back on. If ERod did veto the trade then what was the the alternate plan for Harris? Has anyone seen a media report about Harris talking with another team, because I have not. That's where I think I have a core problem at having thought about this for the past 12 hours or so. He had to have been negotiating with someone other than the Dodgers no?

I guess if he opts in and stays or gives us the chance to trade him in the offseason, then all this bluster and frustration is for not. And if ERod wants to opt in, I think we would all collectively better if he announced his intentions to do so sooner rather than later.

 

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

I can envision Harris getting nothing but lowball offers for Eduardo

He season numbers looks very good to us because he was lights out for a run of six starts in April/May. But in his last 7 starts his has given up 4 or more four times. IOW, if you are looking for a guy who is hot right now for your stretch run, ERod is maybe not so much.

[Tiger337]

20 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Why is setting a high price for Eduardo's services a mistake?

Like, I don't know that we want the new PBO going out there and signaling to the rest of the league that he can be rolled into accepting a Dawel Lugo-esque return either.

Not making a move because you're afraid of what other teams might think is not a good idea.  A confident GM makes the best move (or doesn't make a move) based on what helps his team the most at the current time.  

[holygoat]

3 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Not making a move because you're afraid of what other teams might think is not a good idea.  A confident GM makes the best move (or doesn't make a move) based on what helps his team the most at the current time.  

Do you think it's more likely that Harris didn't trade E-Rod for "anything" based on what helps the Tigers most, or because he was afraid of what other teams might think of him?

[mtutiger]

4 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Not making a move because you're afraid of what other teams might think is not a good idea.  A confident GM makes the best move (or doesn't make a move) based on what helps his team the most at the current time.  

This argument could have been used to justify the JD Martinez trade, fwiw.

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

The first big test line is stupid, but I think it's fair to say that the failure to get anything for Rodriguez is on him regardless of circumstances.  

True. Maybe the lesson for Harris is don't get too greedy? If he could have made a deal for a little less return with a team that wasn't on ERod's NT list, and didn't - the lession would be to give enough weight to the value of being in control of the situation instead leaving yourself at risk to factors you don't control.

[mtutiger]

1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

True. Maybe the lesson for Harris is don't get too greedy? If he could have made a deal for a little less return with a team that wasn't on ERod's NT list, and didn't - the lession would be to give enough weight to the value of being in control of the situation instead leaving yourself at risk to factors you don't control.

I mean, it depends on if we are talking a little less or a lot less, doesn't it?

[gehringer_2]

8 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I mean, it depends on if we are talking a little less or a lot less, doesn't it?

of course. But I tend to believe most teams are negotiating from value models that end up looking fairly similar. 

And to pick up on the general idea  - maybe if we knew what LA had offered we'd be underwhelmed enough not to care that the deal fell through! As catalogued in this thread, there are reasons to suspect ERod's (and his contract's) value perception around the league was not as high as we might have hoped.

Edited August 2, 2023 by gehringer_2

[chasfh]

10 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

He season numbers looks very good to us because he was lights out for a run of six starts in April/May. But in his last 7 starts his has given up 4 or more four times. IOW, if you are looking for a guy who is hot right now for your stretch run, ERod is maybe not so much.

That said, Eduardo's underlying metrics in his four July starts were pretty decent considering the 5.66 ERA (i.e., 10.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 3.23 FIP, 77 FIP-). If he keeps that up for the rest of the year, especially if he turns around his bad luck (.321 BABIP, 58% LOB), there is a good chance he opts out, and honestly, if that happens, I'm rooting for him to go, because I don't want to see the Tigers give him another five or six years guaranteed mainly to justify not being able to move him. Then Jeff Seidel can filet Harris for that.

[oblong]

6 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I mean, it depends on if we are talking a little less or a lot less, doesn't it?

and if a little less means the level of crap then why bother?

Truth is we simply don't know the teams or the players involved so it's all bull**** speculation.

[kdog]

Harris' experience in dealing with Rodriguez and his agent makes me think he doesn't to have anything to do with him. I doubt they have any interest in bringing him back at age 31. Chalk it up to another Avila failure and move on.

[mtutiger]

9 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

of course. But I tend to believe most teams are negotiating from value models that end up looking fairly similar. 

Maybe, but the two teams most commonly connected to ERod behind the Dodgers (BAL, CIN, neither one known for carrying large payrolls) are both teams who may be less interested in assuming the risks of taking on that contract. Which undoubtedly would have an impact on the return 

Edited August 2, 2023 by mtutiger

[chasfh]

5 minutes ago, oblong said:

and if a little less means the level of crap then why bother?

Truth is we simply don't know the teams or the players involved so it's all bull**** speculation.

BTW, has anyway reserved motownbull****speculation.com yet?

[gehringer_2]

10 minutes ago, oblong said:

and if a little less means the level of crap then why bother?

Truth is we simply don't know the teams or the players involved so it's all bull**** speculation.

yup. To me, Lorenzen was the more valuable piece and we got one high A player for him. Have to assume what was on the table for ERod was a step down from that.

[Tiger337]

23 minutes ago, holygoat said:

Do you think it's more likely that Harris didn't trade E-Rod for "anything" based on what helps the Tigers most, or because he was afraid of what other teams might think of him?

No, I don't think that.  I was questioning MTU's statement that he shouldn't make a move that would make him look weak in future negotiations.  My feeling is he shouldn't make moves based on whatever GMs think of him.  

[mtutiger]

6 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

No, I don't think that.  I was questioning MTU's statement that he shouldn't make a move that would make him look weak in future negotiations.  My feeling is he shouldn't make moves based on whatever GMs think of him.  

I dont think he didn't trade ERod because of what teams think about him. I dont think that enters his mind at all.

But I do think that teams shouldn't just trade their pieces for pennies on the dollar just for the sake of trading either. And with what we know and has been reported, that is potentially what they were looking at, although we will likely never know for sure.

Edited August 2, 2023 by mtutiger

[digitalpigsmuggler]

1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

Why is setting a high price for Eduardo's services a mistake?

 

No, but there should have been communication with E-rod to see what teams he would accept. Generally he has said he just wanted to stay on the East coast. Ultimately the Tigers should have taken  the best of what they could get. Because he is going to walk at the end of the season.

[Tiger337]

29 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

This argument could have been used to justify the JD Martinez trade, fwiw.

One could argue that fans would rather watch Martinez/Rodriguez for two months than trade them for garbage, but I wouldn't say it's important to worry about what other GMs think.  

It's possible that no team made a worthwhile offer for Rodriguez, but I suspect that was not the case given the great demand fpr pitching at the deadline.  I believe Rodriguez could have brought back something decent in a trade, but I think there was either miscommunication or a change in mind on Rodriguez's part at the last minute.  Either way, the onus would be on Harris. 

[Tiger337]

5 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

But I do think that teams shouldn't just trade their pieces for pennies on the dollar just for the sake of trading either. And with what we know and has been reported, that is potentially what they were looking at, although we will likely never know for sure.

I agree, but I think this is contrary to Harris' philosophy of constantly churning players to get the best possible player available as organizational depth.