2023 Trade Deadline

[theroundsquare]

i don't know that short to baez is so much of a downgrade, they are OPSing very similar and short is pretty good defensively, too.  it only matters if the tigers would do something with the savings

[alex]

1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

Sorry, but that’s a bunch of BS.  Baez is a veteran with a 1.5 year track record with us.  His defense is good enough to stay at SS, but his bat is a black hole.  He’s good because he stays healthy?

And his salary might not hurt us  next season, but soon we may want to start investing in signing core players long term, when what we’re paying him will matter.  As well as payroll considerations for future free agents...

 

Points taken. I am not saying Javy is good because he has been on the field - but that aspect has value. I would say 'yes' he should perform 'stat' wise better than he has. With said he is apx 6th in RBI's for shortstop's in leagues combined at this time (July 14). That is decent - but IMHO, he could be a better offensive player (he certainly was with the NYM).  Yet, that more than likely will not happen because of his chase rate and as you mentioned some decline perhaps is showing up - yet, I maintain, he is a talented in several ways.

The last regime identified him as a 'core' piece to go with the Mize, Manning, Skubal, Greene, Tork, etc. young core - but injuries have so far derailed that core - so I am saying the injury 'factor' is not really taken into consideration from fans when planning how a season may look. JLeyland had been quoted before often saying 'Your best ability is your availability'. IMHO, I feel there is value there.

Front offices and fans cannot go into each season and say by June 'We have injuries so now we cannot compete (ex RGReene, TSkubal, CMize, etc. for Detroit two years in a row. AJudge,  CRodon, NCortes, HBader - NYY, Boston has had many injuries, LAD, The ChiSox, etc., etc.).'  I am again saying this aspect of baseball is more prominent now than before. Depth has to be there.

All things being equal the team with the most healthy good players (depth included) stands a better chance of winning more games. 

Depth comes from draft & development (hopefully now this gets better), scouting the league and knowing when to get someone (ex a ZMcKinstry, AGarcia of Texas, LGurriel of AZ, etc.), signing a FA, etc. I do feel this regime is and will be better at ID 'potential' players - but no question some luck is always involved because of injuries - and today they are more prominent than before and hence depth must be part of the planning.

Hopefully, in the future say 28 man rosters may be realized. Maybe a few less games played with more scheduled off days. Bring back old fashioned DH's on the schedule ex 2 per team or so. Recovery can help things go along ways. Today's athletes are in better condition than ever - yet, closer to being over-trained than ever before (hence more recovery time is needed) and that may have a bit to do with the injuries. Organization's are beginning to understand this better - but the above few changes, IMHO, could also help.

[Tenacious D]

[Timmitch55]

Oh Tani to the Reds? That's BIG

[RatkoVarda]

need to take some action with Lorenzen; I assume he is open to staying; he will be 32 next year; is in great physical shape; with little mileage on his arm; last Winter, Elfin got 3/40 starting with his age 29 season; that neighborhood seems reasonable to me; Harris needs to move him if no extension

[Tenacious D]

As things stand now, we likely will need another free agent starter in 2024, to go along with Skubal, Mize, Manning and Turnbull.  I’d prefer him on a 2-year, but agree that he should hold up if a 3rd year is required.

[casimir]

Quote

“If we get hot out of the break, it’s going to change our approach to the trade deadline.” Harris said Thursday, “We are going to be responsive to the way the team is playing heading into the deadline and we’re going to try to make the best decisions we can for the organization.”

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/07/harris-tigers-open-to-changing-trade-deadline-plans.html

The race to ..... 80ish wins is on?

[casimir]

10 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

This got me looking at San Diego's contracts.  Manny Machado just turned 31 years old?  That doesn't seem right, although maybe he made his MLB debut at 16 years old.

[tiger2022]

No way is Juan Soto being traded.  They gave up so many prospects to get him, they would never get back anything comparable to what they gave up.  I could see Al Avila making a trade getting rid of someone like Soto for 4 third rate middling prospects, but not San Diego.

[RedTeamGo!]

Ohtani to the Reds would be fun but I am absolutely against it. The Reds are finally coming out of their rebuild with a lot of exciting rookies and prospects. Would be very stupid to mortgage the future for 2 months of an excellent player. Lorenzen is more realistic. Not sure what it would take. If the Tigers demanded Petty, Marte, or Phillips I’d say no. I think something like Aguilar, Senzel, and Carlos Jorge would be fair. 

Edited July 16, 2023 by RedTeamGo!

[Sports_Freak]

According to Harris, the next few weeks will determine whether the Tigers are buyers or sellers. Even if I don't believe him.

[Tiger337]

2 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

need to take some action with Lorenzen; I assume he is open to staying; he will be 32 next year; is in great physical shape; with little mileage on his arm; last Winter, Elfin got 3/40 starting with his age 29 season; that neighborhood seems reasonable to me; Harris needs to move him if no extension

I wouldn't be opposed to an extension, but prior to this year he had a history of injuries so I don't know that he is in great physical shape.  You are always taking a chance with pitchers on multi-year deals, but it's a chance you can take if you anticipate contention over the course of the deal.  

[Tiger337]

40 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

According to Harris, the next few weeks will determine whether the Tigers are buyers or sellers. Even if I don't believe him.

Well, if he doesn't make a decision in the next few weeks, then the decision would have been made for him!

[gehringer_2]

43 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

tAccording to Harris, the next few weeks will determine whether the Tigers are buyers or sellers. Even if I don't believe him.

How they play could change their view on what talent they might be willing to give up, but the two main moves to make, Lorenzen and ERod, don't depend on how they play, but on whether they will agree to be extened. They could go undefeated to the deadline, they still *have* to move ERod & ML if they dont sign to new deals.

[SoCalTiger]

23 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

How they play could change their view on what talent they might be willing to give up, but the two main moves to make, Lorenzen and ERod, don't depend on how they play, but on whether they will agree to be extened. They could go undefeated to the deadline, they still *have* to move ERod & ML if they dont sign to new deals.

Yes they either extend or get traded. My guess is both traded and if the return is good it won’t matter if we are close to first place. 

[Tigermojo]

They have had success with Lorenzen so now trade him. In the offseason they can find the next Lorenzen because players will see the success story and want their chance.

[RandyMarsh]

It kinda sucks that we play Minny in a 4 game series shortly after the trade deadline, it would be nice if that was before it cause the outcome of that could really tell whether he have a legit shot of winning this horrible division or not.

[RandyMarsh]

Out of curiosity I just looked at Lorenzen's game log and out of his 16 starts he has had 9 where he gave up 1 run or less, that's the good news, the bad is in his 6 out of the other 7 starts he gave up 5 or 6 runs so he's been the very definition of boom or bust out there this year. 

[Sports_Freak]

6 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

Well, if he doesn't make a decision in the next few weeks, then the decision would have been made for him!

He'll pull an Yzerman. Wait for us to lose a couple of games and then just claim we're not serious contenders. Which we aren't. But make the playoffs and anything can happen.

[Sports_Freak]

6 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

How they play could change their view on what talent they might be willing to give up, but the two main moves to make, Lorenzen and ERod, don't depend on how they play, but on whether they will agree to be extened. They could go undefeated to the deadline, they still *have* to move ERod & ML if they dont sign to new deals.

I would gladly lose them as free agents if it meant a long playoff run by keeping them. But as of right now, I say trade them.

[Sports_Freak]

6 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

I wouldn't be opposed to an extension, but prior to this year he had a history of injuries so I don't know that he is in great physical shape.  You are always taking a chance with pitchers on multi-year deals, but it's a chance you can take if you anticipate contention over the course of the deal.  

Did he hurt his throat? The guy is the loudest grunter I've ever heard...🤣🤣

[1984Echoes]

9 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

need to take some action with Lorenzen; I assume he is open to staying; he will be 32 next year; is in great physical shape; with little mileage on his arm; last Winter, Elfin got 3/40 starting with his age 29 season; that neighborhood seems reasonable to me; Harris needs to move him if no extension

 

8 hours ago, casimir said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/07/harris-tigers-open-to-changing-trade-deadline-plans.html

The race to ..... 80ish wins is on?

 

If we trade for "MLB ready" prospects I would consider that as both a "buy" and a "sell"; which I want Harris to do.

It might mean a 1-for-1 trade rather than trading 1 guy for 3 lottery tickets... I'm OK with that. But I still think the team has to sell at the deadline, no matter what. But... again, getting an "MLB ready" type prospect, to me, is as good as being a "buyer" at the deadline.

It might mean packaging a couple players because they fit a contenders' needs... I have no problems adding a "throw-in player" or two because we have a lot of them. And I'm not saying it gets us a #1 prospect... just that it might move the needle from a top 8-10 prospect in an Org to a top 5 prospect... Or even if it doesn't do that, maybe a throw-in or two "clinches" a deal versus that deal veering off to another team.

Our "key" tradeables IMO are Eduardo, Lorenzen, and Baez (even if he is basically untradeable...), but I'll get to them in a moment...

Vierling and Olson and Foley I would like to hold onto... outside of that... I view as expendable "throw-ins", ANY 1 or 2 of: Cisnero, Lange, Shreve, White, Wentz, Faedo, Haase, Sands, Ibanez, Short, McKinstry, Maton or Baddoo. Most other guys in Toledo aside from Parker, Keith and Malloy, as well. Not saying any of them are prime targets or anything... just throw-ins if that's what a team wants...

On Baez: most likely untradeable.. but if Harris could swing a crazy deal... kudos. But not holding my breath.

On Lorenzen: I think he and Cisnero are at the highest level of tradeable and selling high. Please have no other consideration except MUST trade them!

On Eduardo: I still think the team could look at him as a piece for the future. He could stabilize a still-near-rookie rotation next year. I still think they'll try to buy out his opt-out. Just my opinion. And I still think they SHOULD trade him if he doesn't agree to remove the opt-out (at whatever price)... but based on the above... I'm not 100% certain they will.

Just my 2 cents...

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

Out of curiosity I just looked at Lorenzen's game log and out of his 16 starts he has had 9 where he gave up 1 run or less, that's the good news, the bad is in his 6 out of the other 7 starts he gave up 5 or 6 runs so he's been the very definition of boom or bust out there this year. 

Someone did a study of hockey goalies who were hot and cold and determined that inconsistency was preferable to consistency in the team's win total.  Tango theorized that the same was true of pitchers.  You figure a team is going to win most of the starts when a starting pitcher gives up 0 or 1 run, but giving up an average number of runs every game is not going to be as good especially if the team can't hit.  Tango explained it as the difference between 1 run and 4 runs is bigger than the difference between 4 runs and 7 runs.  You are going to lose most of the 4-7 run games, but your chances of winning goes up  a lot when you go from 4 runs to 1 run.  So, you want to get as many of those really low run games as you can even if you have games where you get pounded.  

[RandyMarsh]

1 minute ago, Tiger337 said:

Someone did a study of hockey goalies who were hot and cold and determined that inconsistency was preferable to consistency in the team's win total.  Tango theorized that the same was true of pitchers.  You figure a team is going to win most of the starts when a starting pitcher gives up 0 or 1 run, but giving up an average number of runs every game is not going to be as good especially if the team can't hit.  Tango explained it as the difference between 1 run and 4 runs is bigger than the difference between 4 runs and 7 runs.  You are going to lose most of the 4-7 run games, but your chances of winning goes up  a lot when you go from 4 runs to 1 run.  So, you want to get as many of those really low run games as you can even if you have games where you get pounded.  

Ive been theorizing this for years but I never bothered to actually look at the numbers to find out. For the reasons you mentioned it always made sense to me. 

[Tiger337]

2 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Ive been theorizing this for years but I never bothered to actually look at the numbers to find out. For the reasons you mentioned it always made sense to me. 

It probably depends on your offense too, but it definitely makes sense in general.