2023 Trade Deadline

[romad1]

Go get us an equivalent to 2012 Anibal Sanchez and 2012 Omar Infante and this team will be in the playoffs.  Now, Scott Harris might not have that ability but it would do the trick in this division. 

[RandyMarsh]

I don't think we have a prospect viewed on the level of a Jacob Turner was at the time to get a deal like that done, atleast one we'd be willing to trade. 

At the time Turner was a borderline top 15 prospect in all of baseball, so even though he didn't pan out it wasn't like Dombrowski traded a mid to low level prospect to get them. 

Edited July 17, 2023 by RandyMarsh

[Shinzaki]

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2012/top100/

 

Turner was in the top 15 that year..at #15

[Tiger337]

12 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

it's not that they don't use a number, it's the number isn't worth much because the underlying data has low validity. Projections for guys like Lange, Greene, Torkelson, Cabrera, Lorenzen, Skubal, Manning are not worth the paper you'd print them on right now. They could all end up anywhere, good or bad. Will they call up Keith or Meadows, would either hit if they did? WTFK!?

Cabrera is pretty easy.  I am confident he won't be good enough to affect the outcome.  The young players are a little more difficult and they widen the confidence interval,  but they probably (we are dealing with odds here) won't get them into the playoffs.  

[gehringer_2]

13 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Cabrera is pretty easy.  I am confident he won't be good enough to affect the outcome.  The young players are a little more difficult and they widen the confidence interval,  but they probably (we are dealing with odds here) won't get them into the playoffs.  

Well, that's an easy best guess (sort of like Hillary 🤣). Now of course Harris could just be BSing, and in fact probably is BSing, but if you take him at his word that how they play leading up the dealine makes a difference to his decision making, then he is stating he is willing to look beyond the best estimate probability because that number cannot possible become favorable for them between now and then. All I am saying is exactly what he has said, that it is not unreasonable to come to a conclusion based on the present, that the past may not necessarily condition the future as strictly as the numbers in the form of the most unbiased past based predictors say it will. 

Or TL, DR version, sometimes things change.

Personally, I do continue to think that doing anything to chase success this season would still be a mistake. 

Edited July 17, 2023 by gehringer_2

[romad1]

21 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

I don't think we have a prospect viewed on the level of a Jacob Turner was at the time to get a deal like that done, atleast one we'd be willing to trade. 

At the time Turner was a borderline top 15 prospect in all of baseball, so even though he didn't pan out it wasn't like Dombrowski traded a mid to low level prospect to get them. 

willing to trade is the key to that.   You'd think Jobe would be a comp.  But he's way down the list and is only on the Tigers top list of prospects not really on the MLB list. 

[Tiger337]

2 minutes ago, romad1 said:

willing to trade is the key to that.   You'd think Jobe would be a comp.  But he's way down the list and is only on the Tigers top list of prospects not really on the MLB list. 

I think Jobe needs several months of good health before he'll have much trade value.  

[Edman85]

That uncertainty is absolutely baked in. I know it is in Pecota because they output percentile projections. I have backed those out before and looked at them, and they tend to make sense. The ones on Fangraphs have to have that built in, and whatever internal go/no-go the Tigers have will bake in whatever they think it should (and could include biomechanic/swing/mechanics data they have on some of the players). If there was no uncertainty in the projections, every team would be 100% or 0%.

They aren't perfect, but they get you in the ballpark, and no matter what marginal improvements you make on the projections, the Tigers are still in a "sell" spot, but that could change by the end of next week with a 10 game winning streak.

Edited July 17, 2023 by Edman85

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

I think Jobe needs several months of good health before he'll have much trade value.  

I guess I don't follow why you'd want to trade a high level prospect at the Tiger's stage in their development process. I can see 'buying' guys, but they are still a building team, you want more guys like Jobe. I'd move prospects to prop up an established team as it's starting to fade because I know I'm close to having to start over anyway. I suppose if your trade partner wants to be stupid or is taking a salary dump, like the Cabrera trade, I'm not going to say 'No", but how many trades are you going to be offered where the future WAR imbalance turns out to be 4:1, unless you find another Al Avila desperate to unload a Justin Verlander.🤬

Edited July 17, 2023 by gehringer_2

[Tiger337]

22 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I guess I don't follow why you'd want to trade a high level prospect at the Tiger's stage in their development process. I can see 'buying' guys, but they are still a building team, you want more guys like Jobe. I'd move prospects to prop up an established team as it's starting to fade because I know I'm close to having to start over anyway. I suppose if your trade partner wants to be stupid or is taking a salary dump, like the Cabrera trade, I'm not going to say 'No", but how many trades are you going to be offered where the future WAR imbalance turns out to be 4:1, unless you find another Al Avila desperate to unload a Justin Verlander.🤬

I don't necessarily want them to trade him, although everyone is tradeable in the right deal.  I was responding to the idea that they could make a Jacob Turner type deal.  They wouldn't be able to do that at this time.  

[SoCalTiger]

Erod, Cisneros, Lorenzen and Holten are good as gone in my estimation. I think the return will be minimal. Maybe one decent player for next year and a "platoon" major leaguer(s) and/or  low minors guys.

.

Lange has damaged his value and Foley will require more than other teams are willing to pay since many free agent relievers like Cisnero will be cheap to acquire.

Trading Baez seems like an off season move and exchange for another poor contract.

[RatkoVarda]

Holton is still a rookie; Tigers control him through 2028; looks to be a decent piece; I doubt a reliever with low Ks gets any significant return, but if some team is desperate for a LHR and wants to pay Harris a premium, then sure, trade him

[SoCalTiger]

45 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

Holton is still a rookie; Tigers control him through 2028; looks to be a decent piece; I doubt a reliever with low Ks gets any significant return, but if some team is desperate for a LHR and wants to pay Harris a premium, then sure, trade him

True but I missed the rookie part. Thought he was gone at seasons end so that is a big difference. 

[Edman85]

Relievers are controlled until they are no longer effective, which almost always predates six years of service time.

[Shinzaki]

Wojo on 97.1 just proposed a Baez for Tim Anderson trade...we'd have to eat some money or tack on a prospect because Anderson is cheaper and on a shorter conteact..but, what the hell...why not?

[Edman85]

39 minutes ago, Shinzaki said:

Wojo on 97.1 just proposed a Baez for Tim Anderson trade...we'd have to eat some money or tack on a prospect because Anderson is cheaper and on a shorter conteact..but, what the hell...why not?

Because the White Sox would block your number.

[casimir]

2 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

True but I missed the rookie part. Thought he was gone at seasons end so that is a big difference. 

Were you thinking Shreve as the lefty that’s gone at the end of the season?

[Shinzaki]

14 hours ago, Edman85 said:

Because the White Sox would block your number.

Anderson is having as bad or worse time in Chicago than Javy is having here...he's a neg WAR player and his career WAR is 10 wins lower than Javy.  

They've both fallen off a cliff and appear to be very unhappy.    make it happen, Scott!!

[Tiger337]

2 minutes ago, Shinzaki said:

Anderson is having as bad or worse time in Chicago than Javy is having here...he's a neg WAR player and his career WAR is 10 wins lower than Javy.  

They've both fallen off a cliff and appear to be very unhappy.    make it happen, Scott!!

Anderson is a free agent after the season.  Baez has 4 years remaining on his contrct.  

[Edman85]

3 minutes ago, Shinzaki said:

Anderson is having as bad or worse time in Chicago than Javy is having here...he's a neg WAR player and his career WAR is 10 wins lower than Javy.  

They've both fallen off a cliff and appear to be very unhappy.    make it happen, Scott!!

They are out from under that after this year. The Tigers are on the hook for 9 figures after this year. The Tigers would have to throw in Colt Keith to make that palatable.

[Shinzaki]

That's why we sweeten the pot a little...or maybe a trade to Chicago will infuriate Javy to the point that he opts out

[Dave Christian]

Harvy is more interested in stuffing his mouth with sunflower seeds than he is hitting the ball.

It was disgusting watching him pout on the bench with his face buried in a cup of seeds.

[gehringer_2]

If the Tigers want to be rid of Javy they can just bench him and he will opt out. Of course it could get pretty ugly in the clubhouse but that would be the price.

Of course if they can't put some kind of reasonable replacement on the field in his place it might make for an interesting MLBPA grievance.

Edited July 18, 2023 by gehringer_2

[Edman85]

7 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

If the Tigers want to be rid of Javy they can just bench him and he will opt out. Of course it could get pretty ugly in the clubhouse but that would be the price.

Of course if they can't put some kind of reasonable replacement on the field in his place it might make for an interesting MLBPA grievance.

That will definitely make perspective free agents think twice about signing here 

[Tigermojo]

We've been stuck with Miggy for seven years and now we're stuck with Javy for four more years. It's going to be ok. Al Avila can't hurt us anymore.