2023 Trade Deadline

[Edman85]

1 hour ago, casimir said:

We're talking the difference of, what, $1M?  $7M - $5M prorated for less than the last half of the season?  I understand there are several variables at play when these deals are made.  But it also seems odd that the Cubs would balk at an extra $1M.

The Cubs are now, after the trade, about 3.5M under the CBT and likely want to stay under with the flexibility to make more trades. Yes, I would say every dollar counts, and may have even affected the leverage of the trading team as other suitors bowed out.

Edited August 1, 2023 by Edman85

[Longgone]

9 hours ago, chasfh said:

This is a pitchers’ deadline. Teams aren’t paying for hitting. Either way, I think a “pretty underwhelming return” beats a goose egg every day.

Exactly, every prospect is, in essence, a lottery ticket, you can't look at any one at a point in time and say this one sucks and this one is a future star. Do some have greater odds of reaching success? Sure, but all have a ceiling to be fruitful major leaguers. JD Martinez himself was once a lousy prospect. The game is to accumulate prospects that have traits that you believe your staff can develop and profile in line with organizational values, and are upgrades from whoever they will replace in the organization. Most aren't going to make it, but if you keep upgrading at every level, at every opportunity, that's how you build an organization.

[Tenacious D]

From Rosenthal this morning 

 

[1984Echoes]

10 hours ago, mtutiger said:

I mean, it was a pretty underwhelming return, but it says a lot for the valuation that teams around baseball put on him despite his baseball card stats.

A couple of things:

1) If we had tendered him and kept him... I believe our choice would have been a draft pick or whatever trade value we could get at the deadline... So worst would have been another draft pick. We got... nothing for letting him walk.

2) Who says Harris couldn't have gotten a better return? Maybe he gets worse players... but I'd rather he have that shot then... nothing.

3) Funny, the two prospects the Nationals got from the Cubs were ranked by MLB as the Cubs 14th and 16th best prospects, preseason. Made is a excellent glove/field/arm/ OK bat SS, but maybe the bat develops, most likely profiles as a bench glove... DJ Herz has an excellent FB-changeup mix but terrible control... What is funny as the NEXT two Cubs prospects (pre-season 15 and 17 by MLB) sound more like Harris type prospects: Jefferson Rojas, SS, excellent glove/field/arm/ SS (but not as good as Made) with an advanced hit tool/ plate approach and some (projectable) power. 18 and in low-A ball. And RHP Caleb Killian, big FB/ CB combination with excellent control. But needs a changeup to handle lefties, or he struggles.

Now.. nothing earth-shattering... but I would have been pleased with getting a Rojas-Killian combination into the Org if Harris would have pulled that off, and maybe a 3rd lotto-type prospect if he's that kind of good (trader) rather than... nothing.

How many licks does it take to get to the center of a Tootsie Roll Pop?

The world may never know.

(Or... Three. depends on ones viewpoint...)

[LongLiveMaroth]

 

[mtutiger]

5 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

2) Who says Harris couldn't have gotten a better return? Maybe he gets worse players... but I'd rather he have that shot then... nothing.

I'm going to highlight this point because, again, I think the decision to move on from Candelario was the first "calculated risk" that Harris took.... aside from whatever misgivings he had with Candelario's style of play, I think he did it with the idea that he could get equal or better value to replace his position in the field.

I think what came after Candy is fair game.... Maton has been underwhelming, although has looked somewhat better since coming back up. But it was a decision that had to be made at the very beginning of last offseason, before anything else had happened, and overall decision to move on was fine.... one that most execs in that situation probably would have made even. 

Lastly, I think the conversation on Candelario really absolves Candy of any responsibility for his role in being non-tendered. He really did earn his way out of Detroit in 2022 and was a major factor in the teams record last year. He shouldn't be let off the hook for that.

[RatkoVarda]

JV is the key. He might just stay with the Mets. Maybe he goes back to Houston. He passed on the LAD offer this winter, but Kate presumably would not mind Cali. IMO could not see him going to Baltimore, but that must be what Mets want - pay down 95% of his deal in return for multiple prospects. Having him stay put is the best case for Harris - makes Lorenzen and Rodriguez that much more valuable.

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Edman85 said:

The JD trade was clearly ownership mandated to dump salary. The financials of that team, Chris's first, were beyond untenable, and I think played a big role in the paltry returns for JD, Upton, and to an extent, Verlander.

 

In the Forbes numbers, the 2017 team has one of the biggest non-COVID operating loss numbers for any team season in recent history. And would have been even worse if not for those dumps.

Well, that's an excuse, but not really a reason. If they had spent even another $20M on JD before trading him, that would have been maybe 20% of one year's capital appreaciation of the team. Interest rates were near zero so there was virtually no cost of capital to be concerned with. You may certainly be correct that Ilitch may have been hot to pull the plug on expenses but it would have been a classic pennywise/pound foolish move because the loss of roster value and attendent loss in future income was certainly greater than what it would have cost him to handle it patiently. 

The thing to remember, and maybe the mindset that a guy like Illitch couldn't step out of, is that the Tigers don't have stockholders to report to short term, he's free to take a longer term view. Maybe lack of imagination there too.

Edited August 1, 2023 by gehringer_2

[theroundsquare]

Verlander has a no-trade as I recall.  I can't imagine he'd waive it to go to Baltimore.  LA, yes.  Charm City, I don't think so

[Edman85]

1 minute ago, theroundsquare said:

Verlander has a no-trade as I recall.  I can't imagine he'd waive it to go to Baltimore.  LA, yes.  Charm City, I don't think so

He's from Virginia so there may be some pull there. A lot of no trade stuff comes down to taxes, too, which would put the Astros, Mariners, Rangers at an advantage.

[chasfh]

31 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Lastly, I think the conversation on Candelario really absolves Candy of any responsibility for his role in being non-tendered. He really did earn his way out of Detroit in 2022 and was a major factor in the teams record last year. He shouldn't be let off the hook for that.

I think Jeimer is just fine accepting blame for his leaving the team.

I still believe there’s practically no way Scott Harris came in, assessed Jeimer, and decided yeah, he’s done done and on his way out of the game, so buh bye. I believe there are other factors involved that could have been some combination of someone upstairs saying no way we’re paying him $7 million after a bad year, someone upstairs directing Harris to cut him to stop the bad press, people on the ground around Jeimer didn’t want him on the team anymore, and/or Jeimer himself didn’t want to be on the team anymore.

Edited August 1, 2023 by chasfh

[CMRivdogs]

9 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

He's from Virginia so there may be some pull there. A lot of no trade stuff comes down to taxes, too, which would put the Astros, Mariners, Rangers at an advantage.

Baltimore is only about three hours from Richmond. Good airports to get to NY, LA and such. The seafood isn't bad either.

[1984Echoes]

9 hours ago, Jim Cowan said:

That JD transaction was the behaviour of someone who was frightened of public reactions to his movements.  All he knew was that he was going to get tarred and feathered in the media, "social" and "mainstream", if he didn't "get something for JD, otherwise he walks and we get nothing" ...

The flipside to that is:

I think Al kept chasing after similar players... Dawel Lugo, Jose King, Sergio Alcantara, Willi Castro, Harold Castro, Javier Betancourt, Jeimer Candelario, Isaac Paredes...

And I'm not even speaking to the fact they're all Hispanic... I just think he heavily went after IF'ers, falling in love with them. Or maybe he was more comfortable going after Hispanic IF'ers...? I don't know, and don't think that matters... But I think the key thing, to Avila... was that he fell in love with the guys he was trading for... which ALSO was a component of the JD trade, including that he did it early. Got offered 3 guys he wanted and he said YEAH!

That he was a **** evaluator of other teams' prospects factors heavily into his terrible trading track record.

[mtutiger]

7 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I still believe there’s practically no way Scott Harris came in, assessed Jeimer, and decided yeah, he’s done done and on his way out of the game, so buh bye.

It's entirely possible that Harris didn't think he was "done done" but, when looking at his profile as a player, decided he wasn't a fit for what he wants to do here.

We've talked about his defensive versatility before; the guy doesn't move around the diamond. Harris (and AJ) seem to value guys that can. So combining that with an overall poor performance in 2022, they made a calculated risk to move on and see if they could get production from someone else at that position.

We know how it played out in the end, but while people can disagree, the decision when it was made had logic to it.

Edited August 1, 2023 by mtutiger

[casimir]

1 hour ago, Edman85 said:

The Cubs are now, after the trade, about 3.5M under the CBT and likely want to stay under with the flexibility to make more trades. Yes, I would say every dollar counts, and may have even affected the leverage of the trading team as other suitors bowed out.

Good point, I hadn't considered the Cubs' & the CBT.

[mtutiger]

28 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

JV is the key. He might just stay with the Mets. Maybe he goes back to Houston. He passed on the LAD offer this winter, but Kate presumably would not mind Cali. IMO could not see him going to Baltimore, but that must be what Mets want - pay down 95% of his deal in return for multiple prospects. Having him stay put is the best case for Harris - makes Lorenzen and Rodriguez that much more valuable.

JV might be the reason the Tigers haven't traded yet, for sure.

[1984Echoes]

37 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I'm going to highlight this point because, again, I think the decision to move on from Candelario was the first "calculated risk" that Harris took...

I think this is Harris's first mistake.

Aside from the money... and the payroll is too low (IMO) to quibble over spending some extra cash on Candy...

The first decisions was - EASILY IMO - to jettison Schoop and tender Candy. Schoo was done, last season, and 0 chance (again, IMO) of any recovery, whilst Candy had a high degree (IMO) of getting back to a 3 WAR-ish level.

Harris could have just as easily cleared 2B for the future as 3B. And it's harder to find a good player at 3B than at 2B (the lowest and easiest to cover position out of 2B-SS-3B) because a player needs the arm for 3B, as well as the cat-like movements to field the position. 

The EASY choice, IMO, was to dump Schoop and try new guys out there, rather than non-tender Candy.

Bad decision. IMO.

 

37 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

... Lastly, I think the conversation on Candelario really absolves Candy of any responsibility for his role in being non-tendered. He really did earn his way out of Detroit in 2022 and was a major factor in the teams record last year. He shouldn't be let off the hook for that.

 

This, I agree with.

He sucked in 2022 which was a key component leading to...

Harris's decision.

[LongLiveMaroth]

I just can't believe the amount of hand-wringing that has been done for a player that was not going to be part of our future and at the end of the day I would have rather given those AB's to Maton to find out if he was worth anything than to get what would amount to prospects on the level of Abel Bastidas and Troy Melton. 

[Edman85]

So McCosky says in his latest column the Tigers can get a comp pick if they keep Rodriguez. They can't. He is wrong again.

[RatkoVarda]

1 minute ago, Edman85 said:

So McCosky says in his latest column the Tigers can get a comp pick if they keep Rodriguez. They can't. He is wrong again.

embarrassing for him and the News; apparently no editor or copy boy anywhere who can help/correct him

[1984Echoes]

15 minutes ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

I just can't believe the amount of hand-wringing that has been done for a player that was not going to be part of our future and at the end of the day I would have rather given those AB's to Maton to find out if he was worth anything than to get what would amount to prospects on the level of Abel Bastidas and Troy Melton. 

This is Motown Sports Forums.

I've had 50 years of hand-wringing (I'm older than that but not counting when too young to know to hand-wring over anything...).

I consider myself a professional now.

Hand-Wringing Engineer.

First Class.

[HeyAbbott]

I had no problems of getting rid of both Candy and Schoop last season. I was wrong about Candy because I thought he would not bounce back.

But on current affairs, how would you feel if there was no trade at the trade deadline? I do think there will be one.

[KL2]

26 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

embarrassing for him and the News; apparently no editor or copy boy anywhere who can help/correct him

LOL copy boy. 

 

What is this 1950?

[digitalpigsmuggler]

Quote

With at least three teams already known to be interested in Tigers right-hander Michael Lorenzen, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports a fourth, noting that the Marlins are also in the mix.  This tracks with yesterday’s report from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal that Miami is on the lookout for starting pitching help.

Detroit Tigers Rumors - MLB Trade Rumors

Dodgers interested in E-Rod.  As are Rangers, Rays, Reds, Phillies and Diamondbacks 

Edited August 1, 2023 by digitalpigsmuggler

[gehringer_2]

39 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

And it's harder to find a good player at 3B than at 2B

this is important. Harris did bring in some IF's but we've seen none of them are adequate 3Bs on the defensive side. (even putting aside hitting issues). To me it's not moving on from Candelario per se that's a mistake, it's moving on but failing to find and a replacemnet even as good at the 2022 Candelario that made it a mistake.