gehringer_2 Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 (edited) 21 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: The projections would take his 2022 season into account. well, it's true the projections would weight it, but whether that weighting reflects anything supportable is questionable. Nobody knows why a good player has a bad year or what the probability of a player making a comebacl or not is going to be. It's unwritten history and it just isn't in the existing data to tease out no matter what you do. You can make an assumption that a certain proportion of players do X after having a year like Y, but every player is such an individual story that it's still not much more than a guess when applied to the specific player. Things like individual slumps and comebacks are beyond the reach of what statisitical method can tell you very much about. Well, I'll amend this to the degree that a player may have an 'apparent slump' - for instance a year of vary bad BaBIP luck, but he was actually the 'same' player, in which case the prediction that will pass would be a sound one. One strenght of advanced analytics is the ability to detect that. But if the player actually played the game at a lower skill level across a season, or has an injury that may or may not heal 100% (common issue), then not so much. Edited August 1, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 1 hour ago, mtutiger said: I still think that people underestimate how much Candy's lack of versatility around the diamond impacts the thinking here... How much versatility does Spencer Torkelson have again...? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 9 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: The projections would take his 2022 season into account. In the context of making a non-tender decision (and knowing there were likely conversations between the Tigers and Candy's agent at the time, undoubtedly), I doubt the decision to tender or non-tender exclusively comes down to a what the projection system says. Put another way, both sides are going to use the leverage they have in a negotiation.... and Candy's most recent season being an unmitigated disaster would undoubtedly have been a point of leverage for the Tigers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 24 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: 3) Opportunity Cost: dropping Candy means we lost a draft pick I believe. Why would we do that? Aside from getting guys back in a deadline trade, which may or may not have more value than the draft pick... why are we tossing easy money (draft pick/ traded-for players) out the door? That's a lost opportunity cost, which I think is a mistake. Are you referencing a qualifying offer? No team would ever offer him one--that's a $18M+ guaranteed contract for one season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cruzer1 Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: How much versatility does Spencer Torkelson have again...? he's also a 3B. Weren't you paying attention to when we drafted him at that position? 🤣 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cruzer1 Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 Great return! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 1 minute ago, Cruzer1 said: WOW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 1 minute ago, Cruzer1 said: wow. me likey (and I no nothing about Armbruester). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLiveMaroth Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 1 minute ago, Cruzer1 said: That would be great but it's a fake account 😞 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, Cruzer1 said: It's a fake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinzaki Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 (edited) GTFO...that's a NICE haul On edit... Stupid fake people ruining my elation Edited August 1, 2023 by Shinzaki Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 grrrr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cruzer1 Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 Sorry, I should have checked. Dunbazz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigermojo Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, Cruzer1 said: Holy ****! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Cruzer1 said: Sorry, I should have checked. Dunbazz. if there was a silver lining, it helped us forget the incessant and pointless Candelario debate for a minute. Edited August 1, 2023 by Tenacious D 2 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 12 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: How much versatility does Spencer Torkelson have again...? I wasn't aware that Spencer Torkelson was up for arbitration last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KL2 Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 10 minutes ago, Cruzer1 said: You know how i know you got duped? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KL2 Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, Tigermojo said: Holy ****! its fake, the real JPM has more than 110 followers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cruzer1 Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, KL2 said: You know how i know you got duped? I didn't even look at that. The trade looked plausible. Probably really rich. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 unfortunately, any actual trade that Harris makes will now be compared, likely unfavorably, to the haul in the fake JP Morosi account. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 7 minutes ago, mtutiger said: I wasn't aware that Spencer Torkelson was up for arbitration last year. But if this team is adamant about position flexibility, as you are maintaining... Then we should trade him, right? Because Torkelson is not position-flexible. At all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longgone Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 18 minutes ago, Cruzer1 said: People fall for this every year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: But if this team is adamant about position flexibility, as you are maintaining... Then we should trade him, right? Because Torkelson is not position-flexible. At all. I think Torkelson should be open for the right asking price, yes. Riley Greene is probably the only untouchable player on the roster IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RatkoVarda Posted August 1, 2023 Author Share Posted August 1, 2023 (edited) only 2 AL teams competing for the last WC spot that have not made a deadline addition yet are ... Yankees and Red Sox. Edited August 1, 2023 by RatkoVarda Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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