2023 NCAA Football Thread

[Deleterious]

 

[Deleterious]

The Iowa O/U for each half from DraftKings.

[MichiganCardinal]

Seems like a good guy but I’m doubtful this works out for Sparty. He’s coming in with a cupboard that isn’t just bare, it’s missing shelves and has a punch hole through two cabinets.

To win there though, he’s going to have to reinvent the program completely. He knew Oregon State because he lived and loved Oregon State. Winning at Michigan State has always been predicated on Michigan being down. If you can’t snipe 4* recruits from Michigan and Ohio State, you’re going to have to find diamonds in the rough in suburban Michigan and Ohio, of which he has no connections. The expansion of the B1G will help, as kids in the northwest (where he is familiar) will know who MSU is, but you’re not going to go 10-2 in the new B1G by recruiting kids to go to East Lansing from Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. And when they go 3-9 next season, they’re not going to be an attractive destination for anybody.

Meanwhile Valenti is currently setting his expectations as making the expanded playoff every other year, and that Smith has “failed” if he hasn’t made the playoff three times by the end of this contract. I think they’ll be lucky for one first-round exit in that time.

[RandyMarsh]

1. UGA 2. UM 3. Washington 4. FSU 5. Oregon 6. OSU 7. Texas 8. Bama in the latest playoff rankings.

I originally scoffed at the idea that OSU would have any chance to get in but I underestimated the love the committee has for them. With Washington and Oregon playing each other it may just take an FSU loss to put OSU in. I say may cause even though Texas is 1 spot behind them if they were to beat number 15 Oklahoma State and win their conference championship that may be enough to vault them ahead of OSU.

[MichiganCardinal]

33 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

1. UGA 2. UM 3. Washington 4. FSU 5. Oregon 6. OSU 7. Texas 8. Bama in the latest playoff rankings.

I originally scoffed at the idea that OSU would have any chance to get in but I underestimated the love the committee has for them. With Washington and Oregon playing each other it may just take an FSU loss to put OSU in. I say may cause even though Texas is 1 spot behind them if they were to beat number 15 Oklahoma State and win their conference championship that may be enough to vault them ahead of OSU.

What do they do if Bama beats Georgia? Is that worth jumping four spots, over a team that’s beat them head to head? Is it crazy to think that the SEC could get shut out?

1) Michigan 2) Oregon/Washington 3) Florida State 4) Texas 5) Bama 6) Georgia?

[lordstanley]

16 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

What do they do if Bama beats Georgia? Is that worth jumping four spots, over a team that’s beat them head to head? Is it crazy to think that the SEC could get shut out?

1) Michigan 2) Oregon/Washington 3) Florida State 4) Texas 5) Bama 6) Georgia?

I think Oregon is getting a pass with people assuming they're in with a win. Their big win, over Washington, would just avenge an earlier loss. Their only other top 25 win is over Oregon St. Sure they look great on the eye test, but I'd put them in the pot with Alabama (if beats Georgia) and Texas (if beat Okie St.) and pick two of those, rather than automatically lifting them up.

[RandyMarsh]

I saw one of the talking heads say that if FSU were to lose and  Bama and Texas were to both win and it potentially came down to picking between one of them for the final spot the committee may just say "screw it" and give OSU the spot instead of having to deal with who to pick out of those two.

That sounds pretty crazy but then the person brought up a precedent in 2014 where a similar situation happened between Im wanting to say TCU and Baylor, instead of picking one of them where one was the champ but the other won the h2h they just went with a completely different team, that team just so happened to be Ohio State of course. 

[RandyMarsh]

Also I read some quotes from one of the big wigs on the committee and he said something to the effect of "Our job isn't to pick the 4 teams 'most deserving' or 4 best resumes but to pick the 4 best college football teams at this moment."  Also brought up how FSU isn't the same team without Jordan Travis.  IDK to me it sounds like they are almost trying to talk themselves out of putting FSU in, if I were them I'd be really concerned and would do whatever I could to put up "style points" on Saturday. I wouldn't just be of the belief that a win is good enough.

 

Edited November 29, 2023 by RandyMarsh

[lordstanley]

4 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Also I read some quotes from one of the big wigs on the committee and he said something to the effect of "Our job isn't to pick the 4 teams 'most deserving' or 4 best resumes but to pick the 4 best college football teams at this moment."  Also brought up how FSU isn't the same team without Jordan Travis.  IDK to me it sounds like they are almost trying to talk themselves out of putting FSU in, if I were them I'd be really concerned and would do whatever I could to put up "style points" on Saturday. I wouldn't just be of the belief that a win is good enough.

 

That could also be paving the way for an argument to put Alabama in over Texas, which could be their biggest dilemma. "Sure, Texas beat Bama, at Bama, but that was way back in September at the beginning of the season, a lot has changed since then, Alabama is not the same team now it was back then".

[MichiganCardinal]

1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

Also I read some quotes from one of the big wigs on the committee and he said something to the effect of "Our job isn't to pick the 4 teams 'most deserving' or 4 best resumes but to pick the 4 best college football teams at this moment."  Also brought up how FSU isn't the same team without Jordan Travis.  IDK to me it sounds like they are almost trying to talk themselves out of putting FSU in, if I were them I'd be really concerned and would do whatever I could to put up "style points" on Saturday. I wouldn't just be of the belief that a win is good enough.

 

I think this is true regarding FSU, but if they planned to hold them out they probably would have shown their hand this week. They were #5 heading into this week, they could have easily had Oregon jump them after their big ranked win over a rival to #4 to set up a 3v4 PAC-12 Championship. With FSU in the top four heading into Championship Weekend, I can’t imagine they get jumped with a win and become the first 13-0 Power 5 Champion not invited to the playoff. I do think the committee doesn’t think they’re very good and would prefer they lose.

[MichiganCardinal]

The more I look at the new rankings the more I think it’s possible the SEC gets left out with an Alabama, Texas, and Florida State win. And certainly if you add Washington to that. If the committee wanted it different they would have set it up differently this week.

Florida State at #4. I can’t imagine they drop with a win.

Oregon at #5. If they avenge their 3-point road loss and beat the #3 team to become Conference Champions am I to imagine they would stay at #5?? I really doubt it.

Ohio State at #6. They could have done anything with them. They’re not playing, so it’s not like there are a lot of considerations at play here. They still put them below Oregon and above two teams playing this weekend.

Texas at #7 and Alabama at #8. If they wanted Alabama in with a win they could have set the stage this week that head-to-head be damned, or that a 11-1 SEC team is better than an 11-1 PAC team. They didn’t. Alabama looked like a bad football team against a bad Auburn team while Texas took care of business. The UT/Bama game wasn’t a fluke either, Texas won by 10 in Tuscaloosa.

I really think if we see Michigan, Florida State, Oregon, Texas, and Alabama win, that it’ll be (1) Michigan v (4) Florida State in the Rose Bowl and (2) Oregon v (3) Texas in the Sugar Bowl. I hope it happens.

[MIguy]

I just can't see them leaving the 1 loss SEC champs out, especially when they would have just beaten undefeated Georgia.  

[RandyMarsh]

7 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I think this is true regarding FSU, but if they planned to hold them out they probably would have shown their hand this week. They were #5 heading into this week, they could have easily had Oregon jump them after their big ranked win over a rival to #4 to set up a 3v4 PAC-12 Championship. With FSU in the top four heading into Championship Weekend, I can’t imagine they get jumped with a win and become the first 13-0 Power 5 Champion not invited to the playoff. I do think the committee doesn’t think they’re very good and would prefer they lose.

That's what I was thinking at first in regards to FSU but then I thought they may have tentatively put them at 4 and gave them a little pass for their lackluster performance for it being their first game with the new qb. 

If it happens again though on Saturday they may not be as lucky. Louisville is a good team but they aren't elite, like an Iowa they are the type of team a playoff team should handle relatively easily so if they struggle to beat them I wouldnt be surprised to see them drop even though it would be unprecedented.

Edited November 29, 2023 by RandyMarsh

[RandyMarsh]

Also to me if Bama were to beat they UGA they should certainly be above OSU. Their resume would include a win against the 11th ranked team, 14th ranked team, a good Tennesee team(better than any non big 3 B1G team) and most importantly a conference championship win over a team who hasn't lost in over 2 years with their 1 loss being a 3pt defeat on the road to a top 5 team. 

Compare that to OSU who has wins against ND and Penn St. with their loss being to a top 2 team and to me its a no brainer that Bama has the better resume.

Of course the committee says resumes isn't what matters so OSU might still get in over them in the event FSU does something to drop but if they do Id be pissed if I was Bama or their fans.

Edited November 29, 2023 by RandyMarsh

[casimir]

That thin line between victory and defeat for Alabama vs Auburn is fun fodder right about now.

[RandyMarsh]

10 minutes ago, casimir said:

That thin line between victory and defeat for Alabama vs Auburn is fun fodder right about now.

Yeah that it a good point, while the things I said about Bama were true they did also have a couple real close wins to mediocre teams where as OSU didn't(atleast that I can remember).

Also if the committee pays any attention to advanced stats OSU is better in most of those as well. Still though just based off the strength of wins Id lean Bama but I guess when you consider everything it isnt indefensible to have OSU higher. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by RandyMarsh

[casimir]

9 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Yeah that it a good point, while the things I said about Bama were true they did also have a couple real close wins to mediocre teams where as OSU didn't(atleast that I can remember).

Also if the committee pays any attention to advanced stats OSU is better in most of those as well. Still though just based off the strength of wins Id lean Bama but I guess when you consider everything it isnt indefensible to have OSU higher. 

I can't complain when OSU doesn't make it this season.  Throw fewer interceptions vs Michigan.  Possess the ball a bit more vs Michigan.  Don't be afraid to go for 4th & 1 at midfield.

I know the theory for expansion is instead of complaining about 4 vs 5 is that it will be 11 vs 13 (assuming 12 is the group of five).  But I don't think the discussion there will be as loud.  Maybe the first season or two it will be, but I think that will be more because its a new format.  But I think that will tamper down quickly.

[MichiganCardinal]

1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

Also to me if Bama were to beat they UGA they should certainly be above OSU. Their resume would include a win against the 11th ranked team, 14th ranked team, a good Tennesee team(better than any non big 3 B1G team) and most importantly a conference championship win over a team who hasn't lost in over 2 years with their 1 loss being a 3pt defeat on the road to a top 5 team. 

Compare that to OSU who has wins against ND and Penn St. with their loss being to a top 2 team and to me its a no brainer that Bama has the better resume.

Of course the committee says resumes isn't what matters so OSU might still get in over them in the event FSU does something to drop but if they do Id be pissed if I was Bama or their fans.

I agree they would be above OSU. A win by Alabama eliminates Ohio State as both 12-1 Georgia and 12-1 Alabama would probably be ranked above them. I think the question is really whether a win by Bama vaults them over top of a 12-1 B12 Champion Texas, who they’ve lost to.

[CMRivdogs]

Hope he enjoys being a minnow in a big pond

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/39013971/sources-indiana-finalizing-hire-james-madison-curt-cignetti

Quote

Indiana has hired James Madison's Curt Cignetti as its next football coach, the school announced Thursday.

Indiana fired Tom Allen on Sunday, a day after the Hoosiers completed their third consecutive losing season.

Allen, who had led Indiana since 2017, finished 33-49 as Hoosiers coach. The Hoosiers dropped their final three games, including Saturday's rivalry contest at Purdue, to finish 3-9 this season. They have gone 9-26 overall and 3-24 in Big Ten play since the 2020 season.

EDITOR'S PICKS

• 

  Indiana fires Allen, reaches $15.5 million buyout

  5dAdam Rittenberg

Cignetti, named the 2023 Sun Belt Conference Coach of the Year on Thursday, guided James Madison through a seamless transition to the FBS. He led the Dukes to an 11-1 season this year, tops in the Sun Belt.

 

[MichiganCardinal]

My Predictions:

Oregon 45 Washington 42

Texas 37 Oklahoma State 20

Georgia 31 Alabama 27

Michigan 30 Iowa 3

Florida State 20 Louisville 17

Leading to:

(1) Georgia v. (4) Florida State

(2) Michigan v. (3) Oregon

 

My Ideal involves Washington, Michigan, Texas, Alabama, and Florida State winning. Give me:

(1) Michigan v. (4) Florida State

(2) Washington v. (3) Texas

[MIguy]

Florida State might be down to their third string QB according to the news today.  I could see them actually losing to Louisville if that's the case.  Assuming the other favorites all win, that would put Oregon and Texas in, just not sure who would be ranked in front of who.   

[RandyMarsh]

Assuming we don't **** the bed tomorrow I think more than likely the winner of tonight's game will be our opponent in the semis. I just don't see UGA losing to Bama, I think some people are downplaying UGA due to some close wins but if you look at them against good competition and/or in perceived bigger games they have absolutely dominated them.

They crushed then top 20 Kentucky, crushed number 11 Ole Miss, destroyed Tennessee in Knoxville, cruised against Florida and never looked in Jeopardy against number 9 Missouri. I expect the same in the SEC Title game. It's like they have been sleepwalking against crappy teams but when it's time to show up against the big boys or big stage they have.  

Edited December 2, 2023 by RandyMarsh

[MichiganCardinal]

8 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Assuming we don't **** the bed tomorrow I think more than likely the winner of tonight's game will be our opponent in the semis. I just don't see UGA losing to Bama, I think some people are downplaying UGA due to some close wins but if you look at them against good competition and/or in perceived bigger games they have absolutely dominated them.

They crushed then top 20 Kentucky, crushed number 11 Ole Miss, destroyed Tennessee in Knoxville, cruised against Florida and never looked in Jeopardy against number 9 Missouri. I expect the same in the SEC Title game. It's like they have been sleepwalking against crappy teams but when it's time to show up against the big boys or big stage they have.  

You got to beat the best to be the best, and Georgia is the best until proven otherwise.... but.... I don't think Georgia is as good as they were the last two years. When Georgia is 'on', they can beat anyone in the country handily. But you can't excuse beating 5-7 South Carolina by 10 or 6-6 Georgia Tech by 8. Compare that to Michigan, who really didn't break a sweat until they played Ohio State (maybe Maryland, but even that never really felt all that close)... Georgia has a major target on their back, and I don't think they finish 15-0. Whether it's Alabama, a semifinal, or the championship, I don't think they threepeat.

I think part of it is the SEC echo chamber. I think Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and LSU are all good. I'm not convinced they're great. The best noncon game an SEC team played this year was Alabama/Texas, and Texas (who I think is very good but not elite) won by double digits, in Tuscaloosa. Missouri played Kansas State at home and won by 3. Kentucky played Louisville and won by 7... LSU played Florida State and got blown out... Georgia didn't play anybody decent and neither did Tennessee. I'm just not sure how much is "the SEC is stacked" and how much is "the SEC must be stacked, right? They're always stacked."

[lordstanley]

All Washington so far. Need to put points up while they have the momentum 

[Hongbit]

Who the hell is Curt Cignetti?  I like it.