How to construct a Playoff/Champion worthy team, D Tigers V.2024+

[HeyAbbott]

I want one SP for sure,maybe 2. Maybe Mize makes it back. Maybe he doesn't.

We need a longer lineup and a quality bat is indicated.

Chris I , you have Miggy, (32m),Schoop (7m), Boyd (10m), Meadows (4m), probably Erod (15m), and that's 69 million off of payroll. Spend some money wisely.

[SeattleMike]

2 hours ago, HeyAbbott said:

I want one SP for sure,maybe 2. Maybe Mize makes it back. Maybe he doesn't.

We need a longer lineup and a quality bat is indicated.

Chris I , you have Miggy, (32m),Schoop (7m), Boyd (10m), Meadows (4m), probably Erod (15m), and that's 69 million off of payroll. Spend some money wisely.

On who? Few position players available. Hopefully they will add a premier pitcher if Erod opts out and another Lorenzo type. 

[HeyAbbott]

9 hours ago, SeattleMike said:

On who? Few position players available. Hopefully they will add a premier pitcher if Erod opts out and another Lorenzo type. 

Pitcher:Aaron  Nola, Sonny Gray,Luis  Giolitto (pick one)

Bat : Maybe Chapman.

Yamamoto would be very nice

Even if Erod stays , I want another Starting pitcher.

Edited September 28, 2023 by HeyAbbott

[RatkoVarda]

The division is winnable now and that should be reflected in trades and FA signings. I suspect that Harris will – again – not sign any FA position players, but will spend on pitching. They should add an IF and a RH OF, and a C if they can. I don’t buy the binary strawman arguments, that they either they “go for it” or they “sit tight”.

They need to be moving forward, and that does NOT mean patiently waiting for a lot of Al Avila’s guys to turn into major league starters by 2025. Even with 3-5 real moves, payroll will be just $100-110M. They need to add to Tork-Greene-Carp core. Maybe that’s Keith early and/or Jung later.

If they cannot retain ERod, must sign an impactful SP (up to and including Snell, Yamamoto); also add a Lorenzen type fixer upper SP (like Montas). Prefer to pass on Rule 5 draft as they are overloaded with solid bench players and RH relievers.

I am preparing myself to be disappointed by a boring Winter as Scott “Calculated Risk” Harris assesses the situation further, focusing primarily on not making any mistakes that might lead to criticism.

[RatkoVarda]

Current payroll commitment is very Oakland A's-like, at about 34.5M, or up to 56M 
In: Baez 25; Skubal ~4.5; Rogers ~3; Mize ~2; maybe ERod 18; maybe Kelly 3.5
Gone (over 65M): Miggy 32; Boyd 10; Schoop 7.5; Lorenzen 5.8; Meadows 4.3; Cisnero 2.3; Turnbull 2.1; Schreve 1.5

[mtutiger]

48 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

I am preparing myself to be disappointed by a boring Winter as Scott “Calculated Risk” Harris assesses the situation further, focusing primarily on not making any mistakes that might lead to criticism.

As if Scott Harris' current approach hasn't lead to a ton of criticism lol

Edited September 28, 2023 by mtutiger

[RatkoVarda]

C Rogers; Kelly. To show how smart he is, Harris might give Kelly a shot to rebound. They won’t carry 4 catchers, so maybe Sands DFA, Dingler added despite K rate, but no surprise if Harris trades Rogers again.

1b and SS: Tork and Baez

2b and 3b: The sheer number of guys, regardless of talent (Keith (L); McKinstry (L); Maton (L); Vierling; Ibanez; Lipcius; Short; Kreidler; plus Perez (S); Leonard; Jung (L) at Tol) makes it unlikely Harris adds a veteran (like Merrifield, Urshela) to the mix, even though he absolutely should. Nevin DFA and Malloy to LF/DH.

LF/DH: Greene (L); Malloy; Baddoo (L); plus Bigbie at Tol

CF: Meadows (L); Add RH OF

RF: Carpenter (L); some Vierling

Get a RH OF (like Margot, Carlson, Bader) who can play some defense. Baddoo obvious trade candidate regardless.

Edited September 28, 2023 by RatkoVarda

[Tigermojo]

They could trade some pitching for hitters and then sign free agent pitchers because the market is so lopsided this year.

[gehringer_2]

12 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

C Rogers; Kelly. To show how smart he is, Harris might give Kelly a shot to rebound. They won’t carry 4 catchers, so maybe Sands DFA, Dingler added despite K rate, but no surprise if Harris trades Rogers again.

At this point I can't imagine Dingler succeeding in the majors. He's a worse contact hitter than Rogers without the power. Kelley is terrible. Catcher remains a problem if they don't want Rogers playing 130 games, and they sure don't seem to.

[gehringer_2]

14 minutes ago, Tigermojo said:

They could trade some pitching for hitters and then sign free agent pitchers because the market is so lopsided this year.

But the sadly, logic works both ways. Since the FA situation is that hitters are going to be in more demand than pitchers, the pitchers you trade will return less value in hitters than they should as well. TINSTAAFL. 

In this market you'd rather trade a hitter for a pitcher to get the most favorable value gain, but you'd have to have a hitter to trade.

Edited September 28, 2023 by gehringer_2

[Shinzaki]

Sign Ohtani and start printing playoff tickets

[RatkoVarda]

5 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

At this point I can't imagine Dingler succeeding in the majors. He's a worse contact hitter than Rogers without the power. Kelley is terrible. Catcher remains a problem if they don't want Rogers playing 130 games, and they sure don't seem to.

a Jake Rogers clone seems to be Dingler's ceiling (which is not bad at all, but obviously he may not reach it)

Kelly has the skills Harris wants, but zero real world production

FG and Law both were weirdly high on Sands, who was seconds away from returning to the majors, before ERod nixed trade 

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, RatkoVarda said:

a Jake Rogers clone seems to be Dingler's ceiling (which is not bad at all, but obviously he may not reach it)

Kelly has the skills Harris wants, but zero real world production

FG and Law both were weirdly high on Sands, who was seconds away from returning to the majors, before ERod nixed trade 

Sands had good numbers last year, but he was 26 at the time and last year was an outlier.  I don't know what other information they might have had.   

[Tigermojo]

2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

But the sadly, logic works both ways. Since the FA situation is that hitters are going to be in more demand than pitchers, the pitchers you trade will return less value in hitters than they should as well. TINSTAAFL. 

In this market you'd rather trade a hitter for a pitcher to get the most favorable value gain, but you'd have to have a hitter to trade.

Detroit's pitchers are cost controlled. Very valuable for any team but especially for teams near the luxury tax.

[SoCalTiger]

Hard to get a read on Scot Harris for me but it seems we need to get aggressive with our personnel decisions if we are going to make the next step up. Do we trade from our "core" to get players that fit better. In other words do we trade players like Carpenter, Keith, Jung, Holten, Foley, Manning and Rogers who have trade value for players that can actually play a position of need defensively AND hit? For an example a player like Jordan Westberg from the Orioles (who are deep with infielders) would solve second or third base on both sides of the ball. Hard to trade your best prospects but it's possible their value will never be higher. Ditto with relief pitchers and perhaps Rogers and Carpenter. I like Rogers but his control is waning and catchers have lots of trade value. Is Carpenters' power for real and enough to justify poor/ iffy fielding yet he should have good trade value this off season. Will he next year ?

Signing 25 year old Yamamoto would be bold and $$$$$...I doubt Harris has the nerve for that but if he plays it too "safe" we might only muddle along. Our biggest assets going forward remains Tarik Skubal , injury prone Riley Greene, Fretters magic and CASH. We need to keep the first three and spend the other wisely over the next three off seasons. That and making the right decisions on who to trade and for whom is our ticket.

[chasfh]

On 9/28/2023 at 10:08 AM, Tigermojo said:

They could trade some pitching for hitters and then sign free agent pitchers because the market is so lopsided this year.

I think this is the most reasonable bold thing we can probably do this winter. Pitchers should like coming here because we are establishing a reputation. Who do we think Skubal would return in trade?

 

[Tigermojo]

4 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I think this is the most reasonable bold thing we can probably do this winter. Pitchers should like coming here because we are establishing a reputation. Who do we think Skubal would return in trade?

 

I like Gelof from Oakland. Three for one type deal. They need quantity right now I think.

[chasfh]

5 minutes ago, Tigermojo said:

I like Gelof from Oakland. Three for one type deal. They need quantity right now I think.

Skubal plus two other guys for Gelof seems like an overpay to me. His skill set is a little soft. If we're gonna offer a package like that, I'd like to see an established All-Star with a future in return.

[Tenacious D]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Skubal plus two other guys for Gelof seems like an overpay to me. His skill set is a little soft. If we're gonna offer a package like that, I'd like to see an established All-Star with a future in return.

He meant Gelof and two others for Skubal. I’d rather send Tarik, if we think it makes sense to trade him, to LA for the booty that was supposed to come our way for ERod.  Skubal would command even more.

Another bold move would be to go after Soto or Tatis Jr from the Padres. We need a young, impactful hitter in this lineup to help elevate everyone else.

[Tigermojo]

17 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

He meant Gelof and two others for Skubal. I’d rather send Tarik, if we think it makes sense to trade him, to LA for the booty that was supposed to come our way for ERod.  Skubal would command even more.

Another bold move would be to go after Soto or Tatis Jr from the Padres. We need a young, impactful hitter in this lineup to help elevate everyone else.

I should have clarified what I meant. Skubal is probably going to get too expensive for Oakland soon. They need cost controlled guys so they would probably want three prospects with multiple years of control. Skubal is entering his first year of arbitration in 2024.

[1984Echoes]

Skubal is not the guy to trade.

It's Yamamoto and Josh Hader that we should sign.

What that does is make everyone else potential trade bait.

If you have Skubal and Yamamoto fronting the rotation, and Hader at the back-end of the BP as "Closer"... that makes everyone else in-between expendable. Not "every one"... but Harris then gets to choose who he wants to keep versus sell off.

Who does he keep in the rotation after Yamamoto & Skubal? There's Mize, Manning, Gipson-Long, Olson, Wentz, Turnbull, Faedo. Who stays, who gets pushed into long relief, who gets traded? Consider also AA (Jobe) starters and AAA starters next year (Madden, Hurter, Flores), same questions.

Turnbull is easily on a hit list at this point. Not that he would get anything back in return... I'm just saying, for obvious reasons, the Org most likely is willing to trade him first and foremost. But he's a starter so there has to be some kind of market for him...? Manning might be the most tradeable based on a team willing to take a chance on upside, and with still controllable years... Mize is an unknown, Faedo is easily Bullpen, Wentz either looks like toast, or a AAAA starter at best, at least at this point.

So I start with Turnbull and maybe Manning I think. Unless some team would want an Olson or Gipson-Long even more than Manning? That would be interesting. But I sorta doubt that. The last piece of the puzzle is Harris's willingness to trade Manning. Would he be? I doubt that too. That means TURNBULL is your one and only trade option from the rotation. 

When Jobe makes the rotation in 2025, maybe you can look at moving an actual significant starter. Or Mize makes a superb comeback in 2024... Otherwise, I don't see Harris trading significant starters when he'll view them as a major need for our current team. Anyone dreaming up trading Skubal is pipe-dreaming. Unless of course, we get absolutely  blown away by a trade offer, that is....

Similarly, Hader makes anyone else in the BP tradeable. But in particular it should push at least one of Lange or Foley out the door. Again, controllable and at least shows "poor-man's closer" ability so some team will want one of them.

I like Holton-Faedo-maybe Brieske too as 2-3-inning guys in the bullpen. The only one in the minors I look at as any possibility is Mattison, probably also in 2025, like Jobe. Not before then. So until then, what we've got is what we've got. Either for the BP or for trade.

So we end up with Turnbull and maybe 1 of Lange of Foley for trade.

Make of that what you will.

[chasfh]

11 hours ago, Tigermojo said:

I should have clarified what I meant. Skubal is probably going to get too expensive for Oakland soon. They need cost controlled guys so they would probably want three prospects with multiple years of control. Skubal is entering his first year of arbitration in 2024.

I see, OK. When you said “they” need quantity I thought you meant Oakland, which I think might be true of them as well. I would guess Skubal would be a more interesting mid- or back of rotation pickup for a contender next year, teams who could let a bunch of guys down their system go and not miss them.

I would love to hang on to Skubal because he’s showing the potential of being something really special, albeit a late starter not unlike deGrom. But I wouldn’t freak out if they did trade him this winter because I am also pretty confident that this coaching staff can continue to develop useful pitchers out of even unremarkable guys. This group may have found the secret sauce the Avila regime hoped to when they overdrafted moundsmen all those years.

[Tenacious D]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

 I would guess Skubal would be a more interesting mid- or back of rotation pickup for a contender next year, teams who could let a bunch of guys down their system go and not miss them.

 

?  He’s probably a top-25 pitcher in the MLB.  He’s not a mid-back of rotation guy for almost any team.  I think you’re selling him short.

[RatkoVarda]

Skubal and Lange to STL for Dylan Carlson and Jordan Walker, move him back to 3rd

Carpenter to NYY for Oswald Peraza, he's your eventual Baez replacement

sign FA pitchers

[gehringer_2]

13 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

?  He’s probably a top-25 pitcher in the MLB.  He’s not a mid-back of rotation guy for almost any team.  I think you’re selling him short.

As Edman has noted, the risk with Skubal remains more on the injury side than the performance side. OTOH, the docs should have just gotten a good look inside the elbow and one would assume the Tigers know what they saw.