How to construct a Playoff/Champion worthy team, D Tigers V.2024+

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, casimir said:

I think this is true.  But I believe one or the other had mentioned that they didn’t always agree with each other in the past.  It’s not necessary a bad thing to have differences of opinion.  It’ll be how they work through those that will matter.

I think there is something to be said about using the first year to transition while building out your team / org.

Greenberg, at least to me, is a sign that he wasn't completely finished building his front office team... the fact that he has been brought on suggests to me we are entering a new phase IMO.

The other part, and I know I sound like a broken record here, is that we really don't know the degree to which the org did or didn't try to pursue free agents last offseason - knowing how little this front office, we only know what Evan Woodbery or McCosky or Stavenhagen infer about what they did or didn't do. And none of that is certain enough to hang your hat on IMO

Edited October 1, 2023 by mtutiger

[Adullin]

6 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

Ohtani = pipe dream, he ain't leaving the Angels.

Grandal = 35 and on his last legs and won't give you what you think you're going to get with him.

Chapman = will be 31 next year and is DECLINING. Terrible suggestion. Too much money and too many years for a declining player? No thanks.

Bellinger is the one suggestion here that would be interesting. He can play 1B, and is only 28. A LH'er with pop and plate discipline and positional flexibility (OF and 1B) that can take some time away from Tork if he can't make further improvements or stay in the OF if Tork DOES make significant improvements... I would approve this signing if this is the direction Harris wants to go.

I also like Lee's suggestion of signing Jung Hoo Lee, I believe he is being posted this year as well as Yamamoto...

Except I don't think he has much power and he doesn't play 1B. If I had a choice of one I think I choose Bellinger over Jung, but adding either (or BOTH) allows Harris to make additional moves as Carpenter/ Baddoo most likely become expendable at that point...

Just my 2 cents.

I think he will go to the Dodgers 

[RatkoVarda]

3 hours ago, casimir said:

I understand wanting to bring in Hader as bullpen help.  No doubt about the talent, and any team should welcome that kind of talent.  However, listening to one of the national podcasts the last week or two, his name came up as maybe becoming a bit more hard to handle in the clubhouse and only wants to pitch the 9th.  IF true, and I don’t know one way or the other, I wouldn’t be interested at all.

that's fair. but Hader got screwed in 2020 arbitration hearing because the Brewers used him smart - that is, not as a one-inning, 9th-inning closer. "He did not have enough saves" they argued, so he got 4M rather than 6M. that baseline effected his 21 through 23 salaries, so he missed out on maybe 6-8M or more because he lost that one case.

he is trying to protect himself, both by getting the stupid counting stats, and not getting hurt. he is shooting for Diaz money, 5/100M, and - to him - there was no need to work a 4 out save for a team that had less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs. as they say, it is a business. not a great look, but I see his point.

[1984Echoes]

4 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

This doesn't make sense.  You said that Manning, Mize and Skubal were ALREADY better than Fulmer, Boyd and Norris.  I showed that they aren't.  They might do better going forward, but they are not ALREADY better.  

Manning 2023 WHIP = 1.04

Skubal 2023 WHIP = 0.90

 

Boyd's career WHIP = 1.32

Norris's career WHIP = 1.40

Fulmer's career WHIP = 1.26

 

Manning and Skubal are, RIGHT NOW, better than any of those 3, and better than they ever WERE.

Mize? TBD. 

[1984Echoes]

20 minutes ago, Adullin said:

I think he will go to the Dodgers 

Ohtani?

Or Bellinger?

[Tiger337]

2 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

And aside from stats.. there are also personalities involved.

No, WAR is not the only stat, but it's better than WHIP.  The main problem with the Tigers pitchers is that they can't stay healthy and any stat that doesn't include innings pitched is not going to explain that.  

Personalties?  What makes you think that Manning, Mize and Skubal have better personalties for success than Fulmer and Boyd?  Neither one of us knows these guys personally.  You know, I really hope this current group does better, but it's tough to predict which young players will succeed.  i know you think every Tigers prospect is going to be the next great thing.  I wish I could be that way, but I can't.  😀  

Edited October 1, 2023 by Tiger337

[casimir]

5 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

That wouldn't stop me.

I would take that calculated risk, along with the shut-down talent and the 9th inning (only) lock.

Come on, he ain't the second coming of Rivera.  Pass on him and let the funds required to acquire him be allocated elsewhere.  

[casimir]

3 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

that's fair. but Hader got screwed in 2020 arbitration hearing because the Brewers used him smart - that is, not as a one-inning, 9th-inning closer. "He did not have enough saves" they argued, so he got 4M rather than 6M. that baseline effected his 21 through 23 salaries, so he missed out on maybe 6-8M or more because he lost that one case.

he is trying to protect himself, both by getting the stupid counting stats, and not getting hurt. he is shooting for Diaz money, 5/100M, and - to him - there was no need to work a 4 out save for a team that had less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs. as they say, it is a business. not a great look, but I see his point.

I don't know all of the backstory, and I'm not in a position to dispute or confirm any of that.  From my perspective as a Tiger fan, I'd rather they invest the salary that he'd be looking for on other players.  I'd like to see them add another arm or two for the end of the game.  Lange's walk rate is too high for me.

[Tiger337]

1 minute ago, casimir said:

Come on, he ain't the second coming of Rivera.  Pass on him and let the funds required to acquire him be allocated elsewhere.  

I would not be unhappy if they signed him, but I would never making signing a reliever a top priority.  

[casimir]

Just now, Tiger337 said:

I would not be unhappy if they signed him, but I would never making signing a reliever a top priority.  

It all depends on the terms of the contract.  Same as trading any of the current players.  Its all relative.  I'd hate to see them trade Greene.  But if they were to be offered more value than Greene, I'll probably get it over it eventually.

[Tenacious D]

Hader doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things.  He could help lengthen the bullpen, but he’s not necessary.

I think ERod is coming back, unless the Tigers are frustrated with how he handled the Dodgers trade. Sounds like he wants back, or open to it, and will use his opt-out to improve his contract.  If he’s back, that’s your free agent starter.

Upgrades will come from trades.  We actually have some good trade capital.  If the Padres are in financial disarray due to their local TV deal, I’d figure out how to get either Soto or Tatis.  And I’d start with Jobe and Keith. We need our new Cabrera (the peak version).

Edited October 2, 2023 by Tenacious D

[Tiger337]

6 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Hader doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things.  He could help lengthen the bullpen, but he’s not necessary.

I think ERod is coming back, unless the Tigers are frustrated with how he handled the Dodgers trade. Sounds like he wants back, or open to it, and will use his opt-out to improve his contract.  If he’s back, that’s your free agent starter.

Upgrades will come from trades.  We actually have some good trade capital.  If the Padres are in financial disarray due to their local TV deal, I’d figure out how to get either Soto or Tatis.  And I’d start with Jobe and Keith. We need our new Cabrera (the peak version).

With Tatis' and Soto's contracts, you'll get the peak version and the last 7-years version.  

[Tigermojo]

I hate the idea of investing so much into one player again. He gets injured or declines or underperforms and then what? Then we suck again for multiple years. Build a good balanced team with pitching, defense and hitting. We need a solid 40 man roster, not one superstar.

[gehringer_2]

7 minutes ago, Tigermojo said:

I hate the idea of investing so much into one player again. He gets injured or declines or underperforms and then what? Then we suck again for multiple years. Build a good balanced team with pitching, defense and hitting. We need a solid 40 man roster, not one superstar.

I don't like spending top money on top hitters either. The think the marginal cost for the best hitters goes up faster than their winning contribution does. Give me 2 hitters in a lineup over one great one and a scrub any day. I'm the opposite on pitching though, a shut down starting pitcher is money in the bank, so all things being equal, I would pay the big contract for a pitcher. The problem is all things are not equal, the wastage rate on pitchers due to injury makes them high risk investments as well, not because they can't make enough difference to be worth the money, but because the uncertainty of their availability is high.

[1984Echoes]

2 hours ago, casimir said:

Come on, he ain't the second coming of Rivera.  Pass on him and let the funds required to acquire him be allocated elsewhere.  

We're so below market in allocated funds that spending money on Hader is a drop of spit in the bucket.

[Tenacious D]

On this current roster, either Soto or Tatis would make Greene and Tork better.  

Both guys are 24, so I’m not worried about their contracts, unless we’re required to commit to a 15-year deal.  We need the impact bat that is likely not in the organization.

[RatkoVarda]

Padres are facing a very difficult situation this Winter. they need to pare about 40 to 50M off payroll to meet MLB's debt ratio guidelines. Snell, Hader and Lugo will move on. but they MUST move Soto (or another huge equivalent salary) AND try to move Cronenworth and possibly more like Carpenter.

Preller needs to make lots of moves or maybe one big one - all while keeping his 200M team in contention. there is an opportunity for a team that can absorb a lot of payroll

 

[1984Echoes]

A few more thoughts on Hader:

1) Career numbers = 0.95 WHIP, 15 K's/ 9, 4.9 hits per 9.

2) But I'm not really signing him for his career numbers, at least not exclusively. I'm signing him for wins. I'm not looking for my first sign to be a Boyd or Lorenzen-type (not to misdirect, but I'm going to go through a rotation signing philosophy to illustrate using the same philosophy that I want in a Bullpen signing). I'm looking at Urias or Yamamoto, a potential top of the rotation starter (#1 or 2, whatever works with Skubal). Julio Urias is 27, but how do you get him away from the Dodgers? Yamamoto is 25 and the Tigers only need to win the Posting amount, and then pay a contract to him. To me, the money doesn't factor in this decision. Only potential wins; and Urias/ Yamamoto are best bets for adding wins by starting pitching, AND ALSO "SETTLING" the rotation (conceivably... all the best laid plans of mice and men and such...). Or at least helping to settle it. The SAME thing goes for Hader. He doesn't have to be Rivera. I don't care if he costs $20 mill/ year for 3 or 4 years... he will get this team WINS by being shut-down in the 9th, and, this is important... he will SETTLE the bullpen and be a leader there. IMO.

3) Does being a leader mean showing the rest of the guys a special pitch/ or grip he has that improves everyone? I don't know anything about that so maybe yes maybe no. But I think he ends up at least a leader by just being there because it means that no one with lesser "stuff" or make-up ends up out of place as the "closer". It means set up guys can be set up guys, rather than putting Lange there by default. The trickle down effect improves the BP overall. And gets us more wins. I'm hunting 95+ wins. I'm NOT looking for half-measures. Again, I could care less about Chris Ilitch's money, and he's said he will spend it... so... the time is now Chris.

4) There is one other oddball point I want to call out for in favor of Hader. Again from a leadership point of view. We have a kid in AA who is mowing down guys at 13 K's/9, sometimes he's up to 15 K's/9, giving up 6 hits per 9. I'd like to see him make it to MLB mid-to-late 2024, or maybe in 2025. Tyler Mattison. I'd like to see him in set up. I'd like to see Hader take him under his wing and groom the kid for us, for the future. This is obviously just a personal want. But there you have it.

 

I have my reasons for wanting Hader. Most of those reasons revolve around winning more games. The cost of his contract is meaningless to me. And I have other reasons for wanting him as I've outlined above.

My mantra this offseason is: Yamamoto and Hader or bust.

If we get them, anything else we do on TOP of that is just gravy to me...

If we don't get them, and make weaker moves: then I'll call it out as exactly what I think those moves are: weak.

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

Hader doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things.  He could help lengthen the bullpen, but he’s not necessary...

If you're trying to win 95+ games, and not 85-ish...

I believe he is a necessary component. Not the ONLY component to go from 85 to 95... but IMO, a necessary one.

[RatkoVarda]

7 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Julio Urias is 27, but how do you get him away from the Dodgers?

you're gonna want to plug "Urias" into your google machine

[Tenacious D]

8 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

A few more thoughts on Hader:

1) Career numbers = 0.95 WHIP, 15 K's/ 9, 4.9 hits per 9.

2) But I'm not really signing him for his career numbers, at least not exclusively. I'm signing him for wins. I'm not looking for my first sign to be a Boyd or Lorenzen-type (not to misdirect, but I'm going to go through a rotation signing philosophy to illustrate using the same philosophy that I want in a Bullpen signing). I'm looking at Urias or Yamamoto, a potential top of the rotation starter (#1 or 2, whatever works with Skubal). Julio Urias is 27, but how do you get him away from the Dodgers? Yamamoto is 25 and the Tigers only need to win the Posting amount, and then pay a contract to him. To me, the money doesn't factor in this decision. Only potential wins; and Urias/ Yamamoto are best bets for adding wins by starting pitching, AND ALSO "SETTLING" the rotation (conceivably... all the best laid plans of mice and men and such...). Or at least helping to settle it. The SAME thing goes for Hader. He doesn't have to be Rivera. I don't care if he costs $20 mill/ year for 3 or 4 years... he will get this team WINS by being shut-down in the 9th, and, this is important... he will SETTLE the bullpen and be a leader there. IMO.

3) Does being a leader mean showing the rest of the guys a special pitch/ or grip he has that improves everyone? I don't know anything about that so maybe yes maybe no. But I think he ends up at least a leader by just being there because it means that no one with lesser "stuff" or make-up ends up out of place as the "closer". It means set up guys can be set up guys, rather than putting Lange there by default. The trickle down effect improves the BP overall. And gets us more wins. I'm hunting 95+ wins. I'm NOT looking for half-measures. Again, I could care less about Chris Ilitch's money, and he's said he will spend it... so... the time is now Chris.

4) There is one other oddball point I want to call out for in favor of Hader. Again from a leadership point of view. We have a kid in AA who is mowing down guys at 13 K's/9, sometimes he's up to 15 K's/9, giving up 6 hits per 9. I'd like to see him make it to MLB mid-to-late 2024, or maybe in 2025. Tyler Mattison. I'd like to see him in set up. I'd like to see Hader take him under his wing and groom the kid for us, for the future. This is obviously just a personal want. But there you have it.

 

I have my reasons for wanting Hader. Most of those reasons revolve around winning more games. The cost of his contract is meaningless to me. And I have other reasons for wanting him as I've outlined above.

My mantra this offseason is: Yamamoto and Hader or bust.

If we get them, anything else we do on TOP of that is just gravy to me...

If we don't get them, and make weaker moves: then I'll call it out as exactly what I think those moves are: weak.

You do realize that Urias has probably pitched his last inning in the MLB, correct?  I’d take him off your list.

[Tenacious D]

Btw, what is it with the Dodgers and women?  Puig, Bauer and now Urias.  

[1984Echoes]

1 minute ago, Tenacious D said:

You do realize that Urias has probably pitched his last inning in the MLB, correct?  I’d take him off your list.

This guy?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/uriasju01.shtml

I'm not getting your point.

The guy I am referencing (per BB-Ref above), is 27 and a FA pitcher this offseason if I have that correct. 1.1 career WHIP as a starter for the Dodgers, 9 K's/9 and 2.4 BB's/9 for a 3.7 K-BB ratio... sounds EXACTLY like a Harris type of starter.

Who are you referencing that's pitched his last inning in MLB?

[1984Echoes]

6 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

You do realize that Urias has probably pitched his last inning in the MLB, correct?  I’d take him off your list.

Oh wait... I think I got you...

Is it really that bad (without looking...)?

[1984Echoes]

14 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

you're gonna want to plug "Urias" into your google machine

So that means if Eduardo opts out, and maybe even if he doesn't, then it's:

Yamamoto first priority.

Blake Snell second priority.

Everybody else is a weak move.

I'm still Yamamoto and Hader or bust.