How to construct a Playoff/Champion worthy team, D Tigers V.2024+

[Toddwert]

1 minute ago, 1984Echoes said:

I'm pushing for 95+ wins next year.

How is that waiting another 7 years?

You are WAY off base.

with what players ? you realize they need to be a 40 WAR team to be a serious contender?  they are currently a 20 WAR team ... where  is this extra 20 WAR coming from? Keith or Jhen?

[Toddwert]

2 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Probably depends on your assessment of where Tork, Greene, Carpenter, Rogers and Baez.  Collectively, I would expect better offensive production from this group, but also a bit risky.

I  dont know it could be a push at the end of the season 

[1984Echoes]

4 minutes ago, Toddwert said:

with what players ? you realize they need to be a 40 WAR team to be a serious contender?  they are currently a 20 WAR team ... where  is this extra 20 WAR coming from? Keith or Jhen?

Yamamoto and Hader.

[Toddwert]

2 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Yamamoto and Hader.

Yamamoto replaces Erod and Hader gives maybe 2 or 3 WAR then what?

[mtutiger]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

Every GM will get criticism.  I think Harris has received relatively little and I don't think he should have gotten much criticism at this point.  I do think if Harris or Greenberg or whoever is considered responsible for building the roster will receive more flack if they don't make significant moves with all the money coming off the books this off-season.    

The fact that they even brought Greenberg in suggests that they will be more active this offseason IMO

[Tenacious D]

8 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Yamamoto and Hader.

That’s going to help, but it will all come down to lineup improvements.  Can everyone improve and can the rookies contribute?  I think it’s possible, but with great risk for ‘24.

[1984Echoes]

4 minutes ago, Toddwert said:

with what players ? you realize they need to be a 40 WAR team to be a serious contender?  they are currently a 20 WAR team ... where  is this extra 20 WAR coming from? Keith or Jhen?

PS: I was just being a smartass with the Yamamoto/Hader comment.

But they ARE a component of that WAR improvement according to "my plan".

As well as internal improvement from 75% of the guys already on the Tigers roster and under 27, so, I expect a lot of improvement from guys like: Riley Greene, Tork, Olson, Skubal, Manning, Parker Meadows, maybe Gipson-Long and Brieske. Even Faedo can be better if they use him as a 2-3 inning BP guy instead of as a starter...

About 75% of those I'm expecting some improvement or even a lot. Or even just healthier years... although I am already excluding Baddoo, Carpenter & Nevin... so those guys might fall off or stasis next year and my improvement list can stay.

And then fill-in-the-blanks with all the kids coming up.

I mean, do you think we can NOT find a 2B'man that improves on Schoop's numbers, or the plethora of utilitymen we've had at 2B this year? Do you think we can NOT improve upon the grab-bag of 3B'man we've played there this year?

THAT seems unreasonable to me. Even if it involves untested kids like Mallow, Keith, Wenceel, etc.

[Toddwert]

1 minute ago, Tenacious D said:

That’s going to help, but it will all come down to lineup improvements.  Can everyone improve and can the rookies contribute?  I think it’s possible, but with great risk for ‘24.

this is my point too.... without adding any outside offense I dont know if there is enough production on this current team

[1984Echoes]

2 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

That’s going to help, but it will all come down to lineup improvements.  Can everyone improve and can the rookies contribute?  I think it’s possible, but with great risk for ‘24.

Yes, I get that's it's risky, especially for 2024 (maybe less so in future years once we figure out what we've got).

But if I'm Harris, and smart...

I test the kids first to figure out what I've got first... before making any moves.

Whatever happens in 2024... Let It Be.

[1984Echoes]

1 minute ago, Toddwert said:

this is my point too.... without adding any outside offense I dont know if there is enough production on this current team

Calculated.

Risk.

[Tenacious D]

Just now, 1984Echoes said:

Yes, I get that's it's risky, especially for 2024 (maybe less so in future years once we figure out what we've got).

But if I'm Harris, and smart...

I test the kids first to figure out what I've got first... before making any moves.

Whatever happens in 2024... Let It Be.

Yes.  Improvements should come by just reducing or replacing the AB’s that McKinstry, Ibanez, Baddoo and Miggy have accumulated.

[Toddwert]

2 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Calculated.

Risk.

if your counting on all your prospects to hit thats a dumb risk 

[Tiger337]

17 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

The fact that they even brought Greenberg in suggests that they will be more active this offseason IMO

I am assuming that it was planned from the beginning that Greenberg or someone like him would be brought in at this point.  I am expecting a much more active off-season this year and will be critical if it's not the case. 

Then again, I might also be critical if I don't like the moves!  

Edited September 30, 2023 by Tiger337

[gehringer_2]

33 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I think most of the young hitters won't prove themselves next year.  If there were good hitters available, I would want the Tigers to pursue them.  The reason I want them to pursue pitchers is it seems as if there is more of an opportunity to acquire pitchers than hitters this off-season.   

It's been gratifying to see Meadows come on strong at the finish - but he'll still end the season with <150 PA, so promising, but not bankable. Keith looks to be about as sure a thing as any minor leaguer ever is, but that is still something quite short of bankable also. If they sign hitters,  I am not concerned with them ending up with too many good players, that's an easy problem to deal with, I am a little concerned that if they sign good players they won't commit to finding playing time for guys like Meadows and Keith. To me the org has already shown itself to be more conservative than I'd like.

[Tenacious D]

[Toddwert]

8 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

It's been gratifying to see Meadows come on strong at the finish - but he'll still end the season with <150 PA, so promising, but not bankable. Keith looks to be about as sure a thing as any minor leaguer ever is, but that is still something quite short of bankable also. If they sign hitters,  I am not concerned with them ending up with too many good players, that's an easy problem to deal with, I am a little concerned that if they sign good players they won't commit to finding playing time for guys like Meadows and Keith. To me the org has already shown itself to be more conservative than I'd like.

makes me wonder if Harris knows he's conservative so he brought in Greenberg as someone who's a little more agressive

[1984Echoes]

23 minutes ago, Toddwert said:

if your counting on all your prospects to hit thats a dumb risk 

I'm not counting on all the prospects hitting...

I expect some to sink, and some to swim.

The mission for 2024 is to figure out which are which...

And go from there.

[1984Echoes]

27 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Yes.  Improvements should come by just reducing or replacing the AB’s that McKinstry, Ibanez, Baddoo and Miggy have accumulated.

And Schoop.

That alone should provide a big WAR jump.

[gehringer_2]

9 minutes ago, Toddwert said:

makes me wonder if Harris knows he's conservative so he brought in Greenberg as someone who's a little more agressive

No question that two people with a relationship strong enough that they can tell each other to GTH when they are wrong can be a powerful force working together. The question is always how long that will hold as the stakes get higher.

[Motor City Sonics]

Gotta let the kids ride it out one more season and if they can do that and win 84 or 85 games, great, but stay the course on that. 

 

First of all, hire top notch engineers to see if they can develop a foot/ankle guard that Matt Manning can wear that doesn't bother his pitching

Is Skubal really this good? 

How about Reese?   Is he this year's Wentz or is he for real

Can Mize possibly avoid that awful TJ bounce back year?  

Will Ty Madden, Wilmer Flores or Jackson Jobe make a great leap forward?  

Can they figure out a way to get Malloy into this lineup without sacrificing too much defense?

Is Carpenter for real?   I feel like he's past the Boesch/Shelton timeline

Is Colt Keith a 2nd baseman or 3rd baseman? 

Is Bigbie next year's Carpenter? 

What can they get for Baddoo, anything decent? 

If Rogers can be a .230 hitter, does he have 30 HR potential? 

Does Dingler factor in next year?  

Can they keep Riley Greene healthy? 

Are we certain that E-Rod is leaving?   They'll need to re-negotiate, but maybe he really does like it here.   The big market teams aren't for everyone.

And why aren't we considered big market?   With the passion of our sports fans here, we sure are.   The city proper has declined in population, but not the metro.  We still have 4.3 million in our metro and there are signs that people may be returning for high tech and EV jobs and housing way more affordable than other places.  

They'll need to spend on some pieces, but not a big one.   I think the only thing I'd consider is if the Padres really are desperate to trade Juan Soto and do the Tigers even have a package to get him and there's the issue of signing him long term first  - and figuring out why the Padres would be willing to deal him so quickly.   I don't think there's a chance in hell of it happening, but I sure hope the Tigers front office doesn't think that way.    

 

 

[Tigermojo]

If they don't make many changes, there are a lot of question marks going into next year. Projecting their win total could be anywhere from 50 to 90. These guys are young. They don't have much of a track record. Nobody knows what they are going to do. Nobody knows what a pitcher from Korea is going to do. If they stick with the youth movement, we can't expect much for a few years at least. Maybe everything clicks, but with that many questions we're probably not going to like some of the answers.

Expecting them to add a couple guys and then we win the Central is just not realistic. Much less compete with the top teams in the playoffs. Other teams in the Central can improve their rosters as well. They won't just roll over because the Tigers sign a big free agent pitcher.

2024 is probably not the year of the Tiger but if they keep adding/developing/improving talent, soon they can be competitive again.

[SoCalTiger]

43 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I'm not counting on all the prospects hitting...

I expect some to sink, and some to swim.

The mission for 2024 is to figure out which are which...

And go from there.

I agree with you but doesn’t this statement apply every year ?

[1984Echoes]

8 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

I agree with you but doesn’t this statement apply every year ?

Not really.

It applied when Greene & Tork & Carpenter and some of the pitchers came up, pretty much all at the same time. But that was two years ago...

We have a 2nd wave coming up, with Keith, Malloy, Jung, Wenceel, Madden, Dingler, Jobe, Mattison etc... But that should be mostly in 2024 and partly in 2025. After that, I expect the team to be more or less settled and then it's no longer dependent on whether upcoming kids sink or swim (like Max Clark/ McGonigle/ Paul Wilson/ Carson Rucker/ Jaden Hamm/ etc...). And more dependent on the continuing excellence of the "veterans".

At that point, I expect additions/ subtractions to the team to be 10% or so... Not 30-40%.

And "draft and development" able to make contributions to continuing Tigers playoff competitiveness, versus the make-or-break spot we now find ourselves in.

[gehringer_2]

3 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Yeah Id be down with getting Yamamoto and Hader. Id prefer us to spend money on a bat but outside of Bellinger there aren't a whole lot that I like so we may be best served to sign premium pitching instead of signing offensive guys who may be upgrades over what we have but aren't premium in general.

Yeah - it's it's not going to be easy to upgrade the offense this off season in the FA market. If the team breaks through next season it will most likely be because  the pitching remains a strength,  Riley makes it through a full season, Meadows sticks, Keith comes up and they both hit well. They can try to swing a big pitching for hitting trade, but I not excited about moving Skubal and I don't see anyone else on the staff having enough value to another team to get back difference making players. Hinch and Fetter have a little magic going here now where they are getting a lot more out of a lot of pitchers whose trade value is probably less to other teams than what the two of them are getting out of them for us.

Edited September 30, 2023 by gehringer_2

[1984Echoes]

18 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Yeah - it's it's not going to be easy to upgrade the offense this off season in the FA market. If the team breaks through next season it will most likely be because  the pitching remains a strength,  Riley makes it through a full season, Meadows sticks, Keith comes up and they both hit well. They can try to swing a big pitching for hitting trade, but I not excited about moving Skubal and I don't see anyone else on the staff having enough value to another team to get back difference making players. Hinch and Fetter have a little magic going here now where they are getting a lot more out of a lot of pitchers whose trade value is probably less to other teams than what the two of them are getting out of them for us.

I agree with this 100% as I don't see the team having excess pitching DURING 2024...

But they may POSSIBLY have excess pitching AFTER 2024.

That would be dependent on Mize coming back 100% and actually showing something, Manning taking another step or two (don't know if that's possible). Skubal showing 100%-season-health, the continuing development of Olson, Gipson-Long, Madden, and even Jobe (can he get to AAA in 2024? Or even a cup in September...? Or will he be on a longer timeline...?). Also Hurter and Flores on the outside as AAA depth...

To say nothing of any additional injuries that slow 1 or a few of these guys down...

There are too many questions right now to toss aside any top-level pitching. And I don't think there will be offers of much for Spencer Turnbull.

I think we have a lot of REALLY good arms... but these guys need to settle into some consistency before Harris can start pulling triggers on any starting pitcher trades...

IMO.