1984Echoes Posted July 15 Author Share Posted July 15 7th = Jackson Strong (good baseball name), LH'ed OF'er out of Canisius College (4th year, NY college). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 7th Round: Jackson Strong, LH OF, Canisius College. No profile for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Tigers targeting college players who have little leverage in negotiations. Someone’s gotta pay for our Day 1 high schoolers. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 9 minutes ago, Tenacious D said: Interesting analysis. Might have missed this, but does the data discern between HS and college players? And who is the poor ****er that took 11 years to make it? Dude deserves a medal, or at least a movie made about him. Good call, I had kind of thought about it but skated past it, but it did not take as long as I thought it might to break it out, so here is is: College 296 Played MLB 208 Percent 70.3% Debut Lag Number Percent Rookie? 0 3 1.4% 2024 1 21 10.1% 2025 2 44 21.2% 2026 3 86 41.3% 2027 4 31 14.9% 2028 5 13 6.3% 2029 6 4 1.9% 2030 7 3 1.4% 2031 8 1 0.5% 2032 9 1 0.5% 2033 10 1 0.5% 2034 11 0 0.0% 2035 Average: 3.02 seasons High School 268 Played MLB 147 Percent 54.9% Debut Lag Number Percent Rookie? 0 0 0.0% 2024 1 1 0.7% 2025 2 2 1.4% 2026 3 28 19.0% 2027 4 39 26.5% 2028 5 49 33.3% 2029 6 14 9.5% 2030 7 8 5.4% 2031 8 2 1.4% 2032 9 1 0.7% 2033 10 2 1.4% 2034 11 1 0.7% 2035 Average: 4.67 seasons Yes, big difference between college and high school, as we might expect, but ETA for high schoolers is still predominantly 2027 to 2029, while college it's more like 2026 to 2028. That poor ****er who took 11 years to get to the bigs? Michael Kelly, pitcher. Still there, now with the A's, and having a pretty darn decent year, albeit with fairly ****ty peripherals. Still, maybe the star of Moneyball II: The Wreckening?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 6 minutes ago, chasfh said: Good call, I had kind of thought about it but skated past it, but it did not take as long as I thought it might to break it out, so here is is: College 296 Played MLB 208 Percent 70.3% Debut Lag Number Percent Rookie? 0 3 1.4% 2024 1 21 10.1% 2025 2 44 21.2% 2026 3 86 41.3% 2027 4 31 14.9% 2028 5 13 6.3% 2029 6 4 1.9% 2030 7 3 1.4% 2031 8 1 0.5% 2032 9 1 0.5% 2033 10 1 0.5% 2034 11 0 0.0% 2035 Average: 3.02 seasons High School 268 Played MLB 147 Percent 54.9% Debut Lag Number Percent Rookie? 0 0 0.0% 2024 1 1 0.7% 2025 2 2 1.4% 2026 3 28 19.0% 2027 4 39 26.5% 2028 5 49 33.3% 2029 6 14 9.5% 2030 7 8 5.4% 2031 8 2 1.4% 2032 9 1 0.7% 2033 10 2 1.4% 2034 11 1 0.7% 2035 Average: 4.67 seasons Yes, big difference between college and high school, as we might expect, but ETA for high schoolers is still predominantly 2027 to 2029, while college it's more like 2026 to 2028. That poor ****er who took 11 years to get to the bigs? Michael Kelly, pitcher. Still there, now with the A's, and having a pretty darn decent year, albeit with fairly ****ty peripherals. Still, maybe the star of Moneyball II: The Wreckening?? That data cut furthered your argument. You’re welcome! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cruzer1 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 4 hours ago, Tigermojo said: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-mlb-draft-day-one-recap/ "This might be my favorite group from Day One. Lefty-hitting shortstops with power are rare and Detroit got one in Bryce Rainer at 11, hit tool risk be damned. I had a first round grade on Owen Hall, whose frame and arm action are screaming with long-term projection, and his pitch quality foundation is already in a great spot. Ethan Schiefelbein is almost like a diversification pick because he’s polished. There were some college arms available who I have ranked a little ahead of him (Bruce Cunningham was the big one), so it wasn’t as if Schiefelbein was an alternative to a lack of college pitchers, but I had him ranked right around where he was taken." Lefty hitting shortstop to go with lefty hitting third baseman (Jung) to go with lefty hitting 2nd baseman (McGonigle) to go with lefty hitting 1st baseman (Keith), to go with lefty hitting outfielders (Greene/Clark)... Righty hitter/future Tigers: JH Malloy, Dingler Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted July 15 Author Share Posted July 15 4 minutes ago, chasfh said: ... Yes, big difference between college and high school, as we might expect, but ETA for high schoolers is still predominantly 2027 to 2029, while college it's more like 2026 to 2028... Plus most college guys hit by Year 3 (74%), tapering off quickly after that. Whilst HS guys build up to Year 5 (mostly 3-4-5: but 81% by yr 5), then taper off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 26 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: 7th = Jackson Strong (good baseball name), LH'ed OF'er out of Canisius College (4th year, NY college). Jack Strong would be better. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 2 minutes ago, Cruzer1 said: Lefty hitting shortstop to go with lefty hitting third baseman (Jung) to go with lefty hitting 2nd baseman (McGonigle) to go with lefty hitting 1st baseman (Keith), to go with lefty hitting outfielders (Greene/Clark)... Righty hitter/future Tigers: JH Malloy, Dingler Don’t forget LH Carpenter. Hao-Yu Lee hits RH. Btw, I really think Jung has a good chance of getting dealt. Not a Harris pick and probably has trade value. A bit redundant with Colt Keith. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted July 15 Author Share Posted July 15 8th = College LH'ed pitcher Ethan Sloan, Regis University (CO). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cruzer1 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 1 minute ago, Tenacious D said: Don’t forget LH Carpenter. Hao-Yu Lee hits RH. Btw, I really think Jung has a good chance of getting dealt. Not a Harris pick and probably has trade value. A bit redundant with Colt Keith. Good point on Lee and Carp. They're too lefty in the organization imo. Especially with the White Sox having two scary top lefty starters. Schultz is not far off from being a Randy Johnson clone. His numbers are pretty striking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cruzer1 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 It was insinuated in an article on Rainer that the Tigers are going over slot, I'm guessing the 5 percent over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 43 minutes ago, Tenacious D said: That data cut furthered your argument. You’re welcome! What would I do without you? 😁 I was just winging it based on the kids' age of 18, and figuring it's going to take at least until age 23 or 24 before they become solid contributors on a first division team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted July 15 Author Share Posted July 15 9th Round = Zach Swanson, HS RHP. Ranked by MLB at 178. Scouting report mostly says a projectable 6'3" 18 yo kid... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted July 15 Author Share Posted July 15 10th Round = R.J. Sales, RHP out of UNC-Wilmington. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
syrett4 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 12 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said: 9th Round = Zach Swanson, HS RHP. Ranked by MLB at 178. Scouting report mostly says a projectable 6'3" 18 yo kid... This is an interesting pick. I wonder if he was on their radar, fell in the draft, and they gave him a call to see if he'd be willing to negotiate turning pro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmitch55 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 1 hour ago, Tenacious D said: Don’t forget LH Carpenter. Hao-Yu Lee hits RH. Btw, I really think Jung has a good chance of getting dealt. Not a Harris pick and probably has trade value. A bit redundant with Colt Keith. 2B Lee 3B Jung 1B Keith Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KL2 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 2 hours ago, Cruzer1 said: Good point on Lee and Carp. They're too lefty in the organization imo. Especially with the White Sox having two scary top lefty starters. Schultz is not far off from being a Randy Johnson clone. His numbers are pretty striking. Worrying about which side of the plate some guy at lakeland hits is beyond silly 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cruzer1 Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 22 minutes ago, KL2 said: Worrying about which side of the plate some guy at lakeland hits is beyond silly These are 1st and 2nd rounders, and at the top of the Tigers rankings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted July 16 Author Share Posted July 16 3 hours ago, Cruzer1 said: Lefty hitting shortstop to go with lefty hitting third baseman (Jung) to go with lefty hitting 2nd baseman (McGonigle) to go with lefty hitting 1st baseman (Keith), to go with lefty hitting outfielders (Greene/Clark)... Righty hitter/future Tigers: JH Malloy, Dingler Luke Gold and Roberto Campos need to figure out how to hit a baseball more consistently... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Remember the discussion about taking 1Bs at the top of your draft? Two teams in the top ten did it this season. Go figure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KL2 Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 5 hours ago, Cruzer1 said: These are 1st and 2nd rounders, and at the top of the Tigers rankings. and? They will still be in lakeland no? They will still be years away from competiting no? The bust rate of picks is till fairly high no? The chances the White Sox will look the same in 1 years, 2 or 4 years is extremly low no? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted July 16 Author Share Posted July 16 (edited) 8 hours ago, KL2 said: Worrying about which side of the plate some guy at lakeland hits is beyond silly If you don't like following minor leaguers then quit ****ting all over those of us who do. PS: I find your behavior to be beyond rude. It's insulting. Edited July 16 by 1984Echoes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMarsh Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 I do agree with KL2 on this matter though, these guys are so far away and so many things can change by the time they get here Im not gonna worry about what side of the plate they hit at this point In 2-3 yrs we very well may have signed, developed or traded for multiple RH bats for our lineup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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