The: "Can we not do this anymore?" 2024 MLB Draft

[Tigeraholic1]

84 is set to be enshrined into the MTS HOF. We are just looking for a budget friendly chopper to send Bert in to deliver the news.

[buddha]

84 is definitely in the MTS hall of fame.

[chasfh]

22 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

someone else mentioned the early love for Peyton Graham and Izaac Pacheco, a pair of 2nd rounds picks going nowhere fast. development is not a straight line and baseball is very hard. not sure how to differentiate this year's good job!,

with previous years' good job!

Was the love coming from inside the house or outside the house?

[LongLiveMaroth]

15 hours ago, Edman85 said:

I see three players who could be draft-and-follow candidates.

Which 3 are you thinking? Took a bit of research on that as it looks like it was reimplemented with the new CBA.

[1984Echoes]

3 hours ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

84 is set to be enshrined into the MTS HOF. We are just looking for a budget friendly chopper to send Bert in to deliver the news.

1 hour ago, buddha said:

84 is definitely in the MTS hall of fame.

 

Wait!

What did I do?

It WASN'T MY FAULT!

I ran outta gas. I had a flat tire. I didn't have enough money for cab fare. My tux didn't come back from the cleaners. An old friend came in from outta town. Someone stole my car. There was an EARTHQUAKE, a terrible flood, LOCUSTS! It WASN'T MY FAULT! I SWEAR TO GOD!

 

Actually...

I think it was just an accident...

[Edman85]

2 hours ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

Which 3 are you thinking? Took a bit of research on that as it looks like it was reimplemented with the new CBA.

The two first year JC guys toward the end and the catcher from Puerto Rico is committed to a JC. I'm assuming the JC sophomore won't be returning for his Junior year to stay eligible.

[Edman85]

The 8th rounder from Regis U signed for 27.5k after phoning a friend and realizing being a millionaire isn't in the cards.

But seriously, the way the draft pools works it makes sense to lock in your under slot picks first. That way if something falls through with them, your savings and denominator aren't hosed.

[Hongbit]

2 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

The two first year JC guys toward the end and the catcher from Puerto Rico is committed to a JC. I'm assuming the JC sophomore won't be returning for his Junior year to stay eligible.

I love the idea of drafting young bats that don’t speak English.  Good chance they don’t understand the poor hitting instruction they are getting from the organization.  

[RatkoVarda]

8 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

The 8th rounder from Regis U signed for 27.5k after phoning a friend and realizing being a millionaire isn't in the cards.

expected Senior from no-name school to sign for well under slot, but that's really low. 194K for the Tigers to use elsewhere.

possible 5th (overdraft), 6th (senior) and 7th (little school) rounders will all sign for underslot as well

[LongLiveMaroth]

https://www.mlb.com/news/pipeline-podcast-best-value-picks-in-2024-mlb-draft?partnerID=web_article-share

Swanson listed as best in round 9

[casimir]

21 hours ago, buddha said:

come on, 84's best posts are when he's amped up on dr pepper and telling us that the red wings/lions/tigers 6th round pick is a real sleeper and destined for the hall of fame.  

i'd rather have that than some sorry old man shaking his fist at a cloud and complaining about everything.  🙂

/s debbie downer.

Its actually Diet Dr Pepper.  Can you imagine if it were the regular octane Dr Pepper?

[LongLiveMaroth]

Law's read of our draft

The Tigers went all-in on high school players early again, a year after a draft that brought them their top two hitting prospects in Max Clark and Kevin McGonigle. Shortstop Bryce Rainer (1) was the top high school player on my board, a no-doubt shortstop with a 70 arm and plus power, including strong exit velocities to back it up. He’s a heady, instinctive player who shows good leadership on the field. I didn’t see great bat speed from him and I want to see him show he can turn on major-league average velocity.

Right-hander Owen Hall (2) was one of the best high school projection guys in the class, working 90-94 now and touching 97 with a ton of room to fill out and gain some more velocity over time. His slider is plus and he spins the ball well, with a delivery that he repeats pretty well when he gets all the way around to land online to the plate. If I were drafting, which MLB still refuses to let me do because of some silly rule that I don’t actually work for a team, he’s exactly the kind of high school arm I’d target after the first round.

Lefty Ethan Schiefelbein (2B) was a reach for me at this spot, as he’s just low-90s without a ton of projection and his primary offspeed pitch is a slow 12/6 curveball. He’s completely off balance when he finishes his delivery, although I like how well he stays over the rubber before striding forward. He’s committed to UCLA.

Josh Randall (3) transferred to San Diego from Arizona this year after a poor freshman season in Tucson and a sophomore season limited to one inning by injury. He broke out in every way this year, throwing a 95-96 two-seamer with ridiculous sink and tail and a short upper-80s slider, generating a groundball rate over 55 percent. The right-hander has a low three-quarters slot and he doesn’t repeat the arm swing that well. I’d expect a bigger platoon split but he was actually better against lefties this spring, even without much use of his changeup. He hit 25 batters this spring, a 7.6 percent HBP rate, which is not a stat I typically have to calculate and was one off the NCAA lead which was, oddly, a pitcher at San Diego State. Too many fish tacos = too many hit batsmen?

Wake Forest right-hander Michael Massey (4) moved to the rotation this spring, making short starts on Sundays until his hamstring and back took him out of action, and when he returned he was back in relief. He had back surgery after the season to repair a bulging disc. He has an extremely short arm action, getting up to 95 with a hard slider, struggling enough against lefties that he almost certainly sticks in relief. Notre Dame shortstop Jack Penney (5) hit just .269/.406/.492 this spring and didn’t hit .300 in any of his three seasons in South Bend, although he does make hard enough contact — he just rarely swings, with more walks than strikeouts thanks to a 38 percent swing rate.

Oregon State commit Zach Swanson (9) is 92-95 with some arm-side run from an abrupt, rushed delivery that gives him a head-whack and definitely inhibits his command. The right-hander has a solid frame and plenty of projection left, with a lot of work to do to end up a starter. UNC-Wilmington right-hander R.J. Sales (10) was 93-94 as a starter with a power curveball in the low 80s and a hard cutter up to 89. His delivery is fine, with a high three-quarters slot, but it’s 45 command and control and the fastball plays down just enough that he may be more of a long man than a back-end starter — unless he boosts his strike-throwing.

[1984Echoes]

2 hours ago, casimir said:

Its actually Diet Dr Pepper.  Can you imagine if it were the regular octane Dr Pepper?

No no no.

No Diet anything for me.

[LongLiveMaroth]

BA's Review of our draft. I won't post it all but they called out the fact we took high-upside prep (which Mark Connor is known for) and 3 JUCO's. Below is just their review of the Swanson pick. 

Most Interesting Day 2 Pick: RHP Zach Swanson, 9th round

The Pacific Northwest has been something of a powerhouse in recent years when it comes to producing prep pitchers. Swanson is next in a line that has recently included players like Noble Meyer, Mick Abel and JR Ritchie. Swanson is a 6-foot-3, 195-pound righthander who has a power arsenal and was a consistent performer throughout the 2023 showcase circuit. He sits in the 91-95 mph range with a high-spin fastball that looks like an above-average offering and has ripped off an above-average slider in the low 80s that also has high spin rates in the 2,600-2,800 rpm range. The slider generates whiffs against righties and lefties and is thrown with frisbee-like sweeping shape at its best. He has also mixed in an occasional straight changeup at 84-87. While Swanson posted consistently on the circuit, scouts noted that his control was a question mark during his spring season with Toutle Lake High and some scouts think his high-effort delivery will push him into a reliever role in the future. Swanson is committed to Oregon State.

[LongLiveMaroth]

Going through Fangraphs recap of Day 2-3 of the draft I read this and it got me thinking. Is this an exploit for teams willing to spend the money as the Tigers have shown over the last couple years to get an influx of better talent? The team has built the new Dominican facilities and has shown the ability to open up the purse strings for a better experience and work life for its MiLB players.

 

We Just Had the Fewest High School Players Drafted, Ever

At least, within 20 rounds, excluding the five-round 2020 draft. Some of this is specific to the talent makeup of this class, which was light on high schoolers. You know the feeling you get when you first open a bag of chips and see how few are actually in there? That’s what is felt like scouting this high school class last summer.

There are other forces at play here as well. Player development is more costly now because of necessary changes made to how minor leaguers are paid and housed. MLB has slashed away 60 minor league affiliates from its clubs’ farm systems in response to the increase in per player cost, and also cut the draft in half, from 40 rounds to 20. A reduction in minor league roster spots and the lack of post-draft, short-season affiliates (the old Northwest, Appalachian, and Pioneer Leagues), where newly drafted college players often began their careers, creates a talent bottlenecking effect at the college level. Major League Baseball (note the capitalization — I’m referring to the business entity here) has an incentive to outsource player development to college baseball, and it’s a symbiotic relationship because the NCAA would love to have a more talented and watchable “product.”

 

I’ve asked people if the pull of NIL money in college is part of the equation, and while it certainly is as far as choosing a school and navigating the transfer portal is concerned, people with big league teams have consistently told me that the new money flying around college baseball hasn’t really impacted their ability to sign players. Colleges have offered some players a lot of money to transfer or stay at their school (the highest rumored amount is in the mid-six figures), but even if, say, Texas A&M is offering you $500,000 or so to stick around, if the Angels draft you in the third round, your bonus is going to be much bigger than that.

[LongLiveMaroth]

Kiley's thoughts on our Draft
 

Best value: Bryce Rainer, SS, No. 11 overall

Where best player drafted ranks on team list: 4th (Rainer)

Sleeper to watch: Ethan Schiefelbein, LHP (No. 72). I saw Schieflbein pitch a few times over the summer, but he had another gear when I saw him this spring at the NHSI tournament. He was toying with hitters, throwing a fastball 88 mph then the next one at 95 mph; I had to check my video to make sure these weren't different pitches. He threw four average or better pitches and showed plus control from a projectable 6-foot-2 frame.

One big thought: The Tigers' new regime clearly still isn't scared of taking high school players with top picks, but it usually leans into safer sub-demographics within prep players -- for instance, last year's top picks of Max Clark and Kevin McGonigle: up-the-middle prep hitters with long track records of hitting, the ideal group of high school players. Rainer draws questions from some analytical types on his hit tool due to his mediocre summer and being old for the draft class, but scouts aren't worried. Schiefelbein gave me Zack Greinke vibes in terms of advanced pitchability in high school while Owen Hall and Zach Swanson fit into the riskier power righty demographic, but both have good breaking pitches.

 

[LongLiveMaroth]

 

 

[LongLiveMaroth]

 

 

[LongLiveMaroth]

 

 

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

 

 

16th rounder. NBD.

[Cruzer1]

The Tigers undrafted signs so far...

Detroit Tigers

Hunter Dobbins, C, Ball State
Shay Timmer, RHP, Sat Lake City JC
Garrett Pennington, 1B, NC State

[Edman85]

On 7/19/2024 at 10:07 AM, LongLiveMaroth said:

Going through Fangraphs recap of Day 2-3 of the draft I read this and it got me thinking. Is this an exploit for teams willing to spend the money as the Tigers have shown over the last couple years to get an influx of better talent? The team has built the new Dominican facilities and has shown the ability to open up the purse strings for a better experience and work life for its MiLB players.

 

We Just Had the Fewest High School Players Drafted, Ever

At least, within 20 rounds, excluding the five-round 2020 draft. Some of this is specific to the talent makeup of this class, which was light on high schoolers. You know the feeling you get when you first open a bag of chips and see how few are actually in there? That’s what is felt like scouting this high school class last summer.

There are other forces at play here as well. Player development is more costly now because of necessary changes made to how minor leaguers are paid and housed. MLB has slashed away 60 minor league affiliates from its clubs’ farm systems in response to the increase in per player cost, and also cut the draft in half, from 40 rounds to 20. A reduction in minor league roster spots and the lack of post-draft, short-season affiliates (the old Northwest, Appalachian, and Pioneer Leagues), where newly drafted college players often began their careers, creates a talent bottlenecking effect at the college level. Major League Baseball (note the capitalization — I’m referring to the business entity here) has an incentive to outsource player development to college baseball, and it’s a symbiotic relationship because the NCAA would love to have a more talented and watchable “product.”

 

I’ve asked people if the pull of NIL money in college is part of the equation, and while it certainly is as far as choosing a school and navigating the transfer portal is concerned, people with big league teams have consistently told me that the new money flying around college baseball hasn’t really impacted their ability to sign players. Colleges have offered some players a lot of money to transfer or stay at their school (the highest rumored amount is in the mid-six figures), but even if, say, Texas A&M is offering you $500,000 or so to stick around, if the Angels draft you in the third round, your bonus is going to be much bigger than that.

There's no "willing" to spend money." Every team tries to spend 105% of their pool (Except the Rockies).

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, Edman85 said:

There's no "willing" to spend money." Every team tries to spend 105% of their pool (Except the Rockies).

Right, it’s more strategic deployment of the money you were going to spend anyway.

[chasfh]

21 hours ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

 

 

From the story:

 

About a month ago, Swanson took a trip to Detroit to pitch in front of the Tigers’ front office. It was the only team he had time to show his talents to, and immediately made an impression.

“They’re excited to get me," he said. "They paid good money for me. I feel they got the steal of the draft.”

Well, at least somebody thinks so, anyway! 

[LongLiveMaroth]

3 hours ago, Edman85 said:

There's no "willing" to spend money." Every team tries to spend 105% of their pool (Except the Rockies).

I should have expounded more on this in drafting prep players you more likely have to spend more money working on things that they have may have got in college which may be why some orgs prefer college to prep. I could also be completely wrong 😅.