The: "Can we not do this anymore?" 2024 MLB Draft

[1984Echoes]

5 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

NIL in college baseball is so new that’s it hard to predict what some of the SEC and ACC teams will do.  Wouldn’t shock me to see some of these schools significantly up their offers to players after the draft.    

I guess this could be a "wrench" factor though...

[LongLiveMaroth]

31 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I love the movement on Hall's FB.

Wiggins is on my radar for our pick at #85.

Brassfield... No.

Agreed, that is what stood out to me as well. I'll be very interested to see what the pitching dev team does with him 

[Sports_Freak]

11 hours ago, Arlington said:

 

I'd be happy with 9 lefty's.  How often would hey see a left-handed pitcher? Some teams don't even have a LH starter and most have only 1 or 2 in the pen.  Plus lefties get that extra step coming out of the batters box.
 

Sean Casey says hi....😆

[Tenacious D]

I’m a bit indifferent about our draft haul so far.  Part of this is because I didn’t really pay close attention to the players in this draft cycle. Cautiously optimistic about Rainier, but I was also excited about Workman, Pacheco and Graham when we drafted them at SS, and none appear to have a future in the bigs. The pitchers seem a bit “meh,” too.

[chasfh]

5 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

I’m a bit indifferent about our draft haul so far.  Part of this is because I didn’t really pay close attention to the players in this draft cycle. Cautiously optimistic about Rainier, but I was also excited about Workman, Pacheco and Graham when we drafted them at SS, and none appear to have a future in the bigs. The pitchers seem a bit “meh,” too.

Especially because the top three picks were all high schoolers, so we are definitely drafting for 2030 this year, so we probably won’t know anything for sure until then. It’s virtually impossible to predict who’s going be a player and who’s not based on their raw skills. 

[Tenacious D]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Especially because the top three picks were all high schoolers, so we are definitely drafting for 2030 this year, so we probably won’t know anything for sure until then. It’s virtually impossible to predict who’s going be a player and who’s not based on their raw skills. 

Are you saying 2030, because these players will require a few years in the majors to be contributors?  Otherwise, I think someone like Rainer will be promoted by 2028, 2029 at the latest (unless it turns out to be a bad pick).

[Tigermojo]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-mlb-draft-day-one-recap/

"This might be my favorite group from Day One. Lefty-hitting shortstops with power are rare and Detroit got one in Bryce Rainer at 11, hit tool risk be damned. I had a first round grade on Owen Hall, whose frame and arm action are screaming with long-term projection, and his pitch quality foundation is already in a great spot. Ethan Schiefelbein is almost like a diversification pick because he’s polished. There were some college arms available who I have ranked a little ahead of him (Bruce Cunningham was the big one), so it wasn’t as if Schiefelbein was an alternative to a lack of college pitchers, but I had him ranked right around where he was taken."

[1776]

10 minutes ago, Tigermojo said:

Ethan Schiefelbein is almost like a diversification pick

Every time I see this kids last name the word ‘schadenfreude’ pops into my head. I hope this doesn’t end up there.

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

Are you saying 2030, because these players will require a few years in the majors to be contributors?  Otherwise, I think someone like Rainer will be promoted by 2028, 2029 at the latest (unless it turns out to be a bad pick).

Yes, I think it's reasonable to plan to the assumption that it will take until age 24 for any or all of these kids to contribute at a playoff-worthy level. Flexibility for unexpectedly good results could push that timetable forward, of course, but even so, I would regard anything sooner that that as gravy.

[IdahoBert]

I wish we could draft a Darrell Strawberry and a Dwight Gooden in the same year without any of their attendant problems. 

[Arlington]

3 minutes ago, IdahoBert said:

I wish we could draft a Darrell Strawberry and a Dwight Gooden in the same year without any of their attendant problems. 

Oh man, never thought I'd see the day when someone posted I wish we could be more like the Mets. LOL

[Arlington]

18 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Yes, I think it's reasonable to plan to the assumption that it will take until age 24 for any or all of these kids to contribute at a playoff-worthy level. Flexibility for unexpectedly good results could push that timetable forward, of course, but even so, I would regard anything sooner that that as gravy.

Before 24 would be special. Aside from Green, who else has contributed to the Tigers before that age?

[IdahoBert]

6 minutes ago, Arlington said:

Oh man, never thought I'd see the day when someone posted I wish we could be more like the Mets. LOL

In my fantasy world, we wouldn’t be like the Mets because they wouldn’t have drug problems. But this is indeed a pretty big fantasy. 

[Tigermojo]

Third round Josh Randall RHP from U of SD. Sounds like Foley but with a chance of developing a change up and being a starter.

[1984Echoes]

4th = Loading up on pitching: Michael Massey, 21, 6'5" 230 # RH'er from Wake Forest. Big FB/ Slider combo, working on curveball, control, etc...

Edited July 15 by 1984Echoes

[1984Echoes]

19 minutes ago, Tigermojo said:

Third round Josh Randall RHP from U of SD. Sounds like Foley but with a chance of developing a change up and being a starter.

Was their Friday night starter... has some work to do but is part-way there already...

[1984Echoes]

5th = Jack Penney, Lefty 3rd baseman out of Notre Dame.

[Arlington]

We are well into the draft were the alignment of our opinions and the future are totally random. 

[1984Echoes]

Correct that... Looks like he's a SS...

[1984Echoes]

3 minutes ago, Arlington said:

We are well into the draft were the alignment of our opinions and the future are totally random. 

Yes.

[1984Echoes]

6 minutes ago, Arlington said:

We are well into the draft were the alignment of our opinions and the future are totally random. 

There is however...

Still a couple prep pitchers I wish they'd chase.

But...

I'm assuming the bonus demands put them out of play...

[LongLiveMaroth]

40 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

4th = Loading up on pitching: Michael Massey, 21, 6'5" 230 # RH'er from Wake Forest. Big FB/ Slider combo, working on curveball, control, etc...

Reliever profile but that FB is nice to dream on.

[1984Echoes]

Add another SS:

6th round = Woody Hadeen, switch-hitter from UC-Irvine.

[chasfh]

4 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

Are you saying 2030, because these players will require a few years in the majors to be contributors?  Otherwise, I think someone like Rainer will be promoted by 2028, 2029 at the latest (unless it turns out to be a bad pick).

So, just for kicks, I married the 1st Round draft info on Reference with the Lahman People database to determine, of all the first round draft picks from 2010 through 2022, how many had made the majors through 2023, and how many seasons did it take? Again, this is everyone drafted in the first rounds only.

Here's how it looks:

Kids Drafted	566
Played MLB	355
Percent	62.7%
Debut Lag	Number	Percent	Rookie?
0	3	0.8%	2024
1	22	6.2%	2025
2	47	13.2%	2026
3	115	32.4%	2027
4	71	20.0%	2028
5	62	17.5%	2029
6	17	4.8%	2030
7	9	2.5%	2031
8	3	0.8%	2032
9	2	0.6%	2033
10	3	0.8%	2034
11	1	0.3%	2035
Average:	3.67	seasons

Here's how to read this:

There were 566 kids drafted in the first round between 2010 and 2022, including supplemental first rounds. Of those, 355 have debuted in the majors, which is almost 63%.

Debut lag is how many seasons it took before they made the majors. Three players made the majors with "zero debut lag"—that is, the very year they were drafted (Garrett Crochet, Chris Sale, Brandon Finnegan). That's 0.8% of all players chosen. A player drafted this year with zero draft lag would debut this season, 2024.

Twenty-two players made the majors with a one-year debut lag. That's 6.2% of all players chosen. A player drafted this year with zero draft lag would debut next season, 2025.

You get the idea.

The most common debut lag is three years (2027) with 32.4%; second most common is four years (2028) at exactly 20.0%; third most common is five years (2029) at 17.5%. So, nearly 70% of first-rounders who make the majors do so at three to five years after they were drafted. Another 13.2% make it in two years.

The implication for our first rounder Bryce Rainer, such as it is, is that if he makes the majors, he's most likely to make his debut between 2027 and 2029, and if he is more exceptional, he could make it in 2026.

How fast Bryce Rainer makes the majors could set a good benchmark for how solid the developmental team in the Harris administration is. Or Max Clark or Kevin McGonigle, for what that's worth. If they could make it in two, that is an outstanding job. If it takes at least five, well ...

tl;dr: I think we both may be right, in that Rainer should make the majors certainly by 2029, hopefully by 2028; and 2030 is probably when we can hope/expect him to start contributing as a solid first-division regular.

[Tenacious D]

13 minutes ago, chasfh said:

So, just for kicks, I married the 1st Round draft info on Reference with the Lahman People database to determine, of all the first round draft picks from 2010 through 2022, how many had made the majors through 2023, and how many seasons did it take? Again, this is everyone drafted in the first rounds only.

Here's how it looks:

Kids Drafted	566
Played MLB	355
Percent	62.7%
Debut Lag	Number	Percent	Rookie?
0	3	0.8%	2024
1	22	6.2%	2025
2	47	13.2%	2026
3	115	32.4%	2027
4	71	20.0%	2028
5	62	17.5%	2029
6	17	4.8%	2030
7	9	2.5%	2031
8	3	0.8%	2032
9	2	0.6%	2033
10	3	0.8%	2034
11	1	0.3%	2035
Average:	3.67	seasons

Here's how to read this:

There were 566 kids drafted in the first round between 2010 and 2022, including supplemental first rounds. Of those, 355 have debuted in the majors, which is almost 63%.

Debut lag is how many seasons it took before they made the majors. Three players made the majors with "zero debut lag"—that is, the very year they were drafted (Garrett Crochet, Chris Sale, Brandon Finnegan). That's 0.8% of all players chosen. A player drafted this year with zero draft lag would debut this season, 2024.

Twenty-two players made the majors with a one-year debut lag. That's 6.2% of all players chosen. A player drafted this year with zero draft lag would debut next season, 2025.

You get the idea.

The most common debut lag is three years (2027) with 32.4%; second most common is four years (2028) at exactly 20.0%; third most common is five years (2029) at 17.5%. So, nearly 70% of first-rounders who make the majors do so at three to five years after they were drafted. Another 13.2% make it in two years.

The implication for our first rounder Bryce Rainer, such as it is, is that if he makes the majors, he's most likely to make his debut between 2027 and 2029, and if he is more exceptional, he could make it in 2026.

How fast Bryce Rainer makes the majors could set a good benchmark for how solid the developmental team in the Harris administration is. Or Max Clark or Kevin McGonigle, for what that's worth. If they could make it in two, that is an outstanding job. If it takes at least five, well ...

tl;dr: I think we both may be right, in that Rainer should make the majors certainly by 2029, hopefully by 2028; and 2030 is probably when we can hope/expect him to start contributing as a solid first-division regular.

Interesting analysis.  Might have missed this, but does the data discern between HS and college players?

And who is the poor ****er that took 11 years to make it?  Dude deserves a medal, or at least a movie made about him.