Evaluate Scott Harris' first year

[Tigermojo]

Harris has been here about a year now. This offseason is going to be a big test for him and we'll have to wait and see how that goes. Until then, I'd like to look back at what he's done so far. 

McKinstry - late addition before the season started. He's been forced into a full time role but I like him as a bench player next year. Good defense and base running give him a positive WAR according to Fangraphs.

Lorenzen - great signing and able to flip him at the deadline. Did exactly what they said they would for him and he appreciated it. Have to be happy with that as a selling point for future signings.

Holton - maybe the steal of the offseason. Really impressive rookie year from an unexpected player. Made the best out of Chafin's decision to leave.

Vierling - absolute monster June. Second highest wRC+ in baseball behind Ohtani. Otherwise, he's been mediocre and would have a negative WAR. Maybe a bench role for next year but shouldn't be guaranteed.

Maton - flopped. Left in the Majors too long.

Failed trade of ERod - I wasn't impressed. I thought it was a big failure on Harris' part and ties in with:

Said he would sign a GM - said he would and hasn't. Another failure IMO.

Leonard - did manage to get Leonard at the deadline for cash which looks like a potential steal.

Malloy - looks like a good return for Jimenez.

Draft - I was happy with the draft but we will have to wait and see.

How would you evaluate Harris?

 

Edit almost forgot

Rumored to have almost traded Rogers - not impressed! One of my favorite players. Purely sentimental because we don't know what the return would have been.

Edited September 2, 2023 by Tigermojo

[SoCalTiger]

B +  

Happy with mostly everything. Great Draft. Developmental gains. Not rushing players to the show prematurely. Looks under every rock. Taking time to properly evaluate all the inherited personnel. Good  trades and  free agent signings. The Erod trade was probably a good trade that got spoiled with no fault of his own other than trust which was misplaced so a small error all the same. Didn't fill third base. For the first year I think he has made a good impression but the honeymoon is now over. Big off season ahead. 

[Longgone]

Trades-C

Free agents, waivers, etc. -C

Staffing-B

Player development -B

Draft-A

International -Inc.

[Edman85]

Do you expect a GM to be hired in May or June or something?

[Tigermojo]

11 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Do you expect a GM to be hired in May or June or something?

https://www.audacy.com/971theticket/sports/detroit-tigers/scott-harris-will-hire-detroit-tigers-general-manager

I expect him to do what he said he would do especially since he goes on and on about how complex these jobs are and how valuable more talent is in the front office.

[Edman85]

The front office hiring season is September-December. Likely the person he wanted last year wasn't available, or he wanted to see what needed shored up... Wait til after the next hiring cycle (A GM hire likely won't be the only move). That's when contracts are up, and it's nigh impossible to poach.

[Tiger337]

Grade is really incomplete at this point, but I'll give him a B-(with C being average)

Positives -

Seems to be genuinely analytics driven especially in staffing

seems to work tirelessly in an effort find hidden gems.

It sounds as if he had a great draft (according to experts), but there are so many unknowns there

Player development went well his first year, altough hard to know how much of it was him.

 

Negatives -

I was hoping he'd take more chances in free agency/ trades regarding hitters.

Somebody has to say it...Should have kept Candelario

Failure to trade Rodriguez at deadline. I know there is a lot of blame being thrown around, but I think he has to own it.

Overall, he seems a bit tentative in making big moves.  That is excusable with a new team to evaluate, but it's something to watch going forward.    

 

 

Edited September 3, 2023 by Tiger337

[LongLiveMaroth]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

 

Somebody has to say it...Should have kept Candelario

 

 

I mean I am just shocked this is the first time this has come up. 😅

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, Edman85 said:

Do you expect a GM to be hired in May or June or something?

I don't think there was ever any serious intention to bring in another FO body on any schedule. Harris was hired to be POBO/GM. All the GM talk has been PR window dressing so I'm not going to rate that as any kind of fail.

[oblong]

Are the titles of any value to the fans?  What would a GM do that Harris isn’t doing today?  If they hire one and next year everyone is bitching because of a move or non move will they yell at Harris or the new guy or gal?  I’m assuming Harris is going to be responsible for any big decisions regarding the on the field issues regardless. Dombrowski was CEO and GM but I don’t think he was picking out or even care who the contract for electrical work was being given out to.  

[Jim Cowan]

Get rid of David Chadd...A++++.  Get rid of Kevin Rand...A++.  Get rid of Willi and Harold, A.  Sign Lorenzen and flip him, A+.  Acquire an on-base freak like Malloy, A.  Draft the 2023 Tigers draft, A.

[Edman85]

Front office personnel: A+. Came in and cleaned house on the amateur scouting/draft front as well as the training front. Way overdue. Reports have indicated alignment throughout the organization, which may have been the "je ne sas quoi" that was missing in the Avila era. This is partially incomplete, as usually this building bleeds into the second offseason hiring period, which may be where that "GM" role gets filled.

Player development: A+. Players are by-and-large getting better, both at the big league and minor league level. The minor league system is healthy, and NP's are becoming prospects.

Player acquisition: A. A lot more good than bad here. People will point to Maton being a flop or the flubbing of the Rodriguez deal, but across the board there has been positive arbitrage this year. Even very minor trades like Davis for Allen, Lockhart for cash, Leonard for cash may pay dividends. I like the willingness to scour the waiver wire, even if most of the acquisitions on that front come up empty.

Draft: A. Mostly incomplete, but I like the different approach after too many years of the Chadd/Pleis stubborn, uncreative mess.

Overall an A so far.

[mtutiger]

9 hours ago, oblong said:

Are the titles of any value to the fans?  What would a GM do that Harris isn’t doing today?  If they hire one and next year everyone is bitching because of a move or non move will they yell at Harris or the new guy or gal?  I’m assuming Harris is going to be responsible for any big decisions regarding the on the field issues regardless. Dombrowski was CEO and GM but I don’t think he was picking out or even care who the contract for electrical work was being given out to.  

I dont know what he plans on doing for sure at GM (he did say that it would likely happen at some undetermined time in the future iirc). But realistically, it became apparent that it would like come during the next offseason the moment the last offseason ended - with a few exceptions (see the White Sox), front office changes at that level more often than not happen during an offseason.

Like you, I don't really understand it as a point of criticism... I imagine that he has a cadre of people that he talks and confers with when decisions are made regardless of whether someone with the title "GM" is in the room.

[romad1]

Is the guy the Nats just lost Mike Rizzo of any interest as GM or is it a lock that he's going to the White Sox?

My grade:  B

Positives:  Lots of positive development of the position players.  The AAA offense is thumping teams every night according to my MILB app which can only mean that some of these clubbers are coming North at some point.   The big three of Riley, Spencer and Kerry appear to be a core worth preserving.  There is the basis of a future rotation in Skubal, Manning, Olson with possible FA centerpiece like Erod (who appears to be on the Michigan Chamber of Commerce for all he loves it here).

Negatives:  That AAA pitching staff appears to be tied together with banyan vines and spit.  That does not bode well for the future.  

For this to mean a winning season in 2024, he needs an offseason like the Detroit Lions offseason.  Having that offseason required a surge in 2023.  I'm not sure we had that surge to the degree necessary. 

[mtutiger]

Front office personnel: I'll be honest in saying that I don't know the ins-and-outs of the front office personnel like Ed does, but it does appear from the outside that each level seems a lot more in-sync with each other than at times in the past. Some of that transition did start during the Avila era, but Harris has his fingerprints all over this as well. I would also add a comment about AJ Hinch in here - he seems bought into this new approach in a way that he didn't seem be as much during Avila. Contrary to some occasional social media commentary about there being daylight between Harris/Hinch, I have seen little actual evidence this is the case as well. A

PD: Lets take a trip down memory lane to.... February 2023 (around 6 months ago). The Keith Law's/Pipelines/Kiley McDaniels were all releasing their collective rankings of the farm system, and Tigers fans were losing their collective ****s over the results. The farm system sucks, it'll take years to fix this, the Tigers are hopeless, yada yada yada.

Fast forward to current day, MLB Pipeline has them at 13 (up from 25), Kiley McDaniel also has them at 13 (up from 21).... I don't believe Keith Law has done a rerank thus far, but some Tigers prospects have risen in his top rankings and he has suggested some complementary things about the Tigers system.The usual caveats about farm system rankings being stupid apply, but it does suggest a pretty significant improvement regardless.

Does this org still have a long way to go? Yes. Are there problems that need to be addressed? Sure. But having said all that, I don't know how you can look at the results over the past six months and not see that as a smashing success for PD for this new regime. A+

Player Acquisition: Probably the one area where some improvement may be needed.... Harris gets graded overly harsh by the "smartest guys in the room" on Tigers Twitter in this category and, partially, I think he gets dinged a lot because a lot of his successes have come from the deals that don't get a ton of fanfare, as Ed suggests. He has managed to bring a few guys on cash deals that have helped prop up the farm system and are guys that, theoretically, could wear a Tigers uniform at some point down the line. Eddys Leonard is probably the best example... for whatever came of the ERod deal falling apart, that's a pretty solid consolation prize. Zach McKinstry as well.... not a franchise altering deal, but he's been a useful pickup regardless.

As far as the trades and free agency are concerned, I'm mostly fine with the trades.... Maton has not played out as expected, but in terms of value, I think he received back a fair value for an inconsistent reliever with control issues. And I do believe that a number of Tiger fans, when evaluating this particular deal (or exhibit their frustrations with the players acquired) probably overvalue Gregory Soto juuuuuuusssst a little bit. The Jimenez trade was pretty good... Malloy has defensive issues, but at the very least, he seems like a player that could provide some value with the bat at the ML level. Again, not bad for a reliever who, up until last year, really hadn't found Jesus on the mound. The ERod trade falling apart wasn't great and he bears some responsibility. Letting Candy walk was fine, no, they didn't need to keep him.... the bigger issue was the lack of viable replacement. If I had to pick one thing to criticize, it would be that, it was a risk that didn't work out.

As far as the waiver wire is concerned, I don't how people criticize Harris over this stuff... sure, they haven't all worked out, but for as much as we heard regret over not resigning Andrew Chafin on this board earlier in the season, they basically found his replacement (Tyler Holton) on the waiver wire. No org is gonna hit 100% of the time on this stuff, but even hitting on a couple of these can help.... pretty satisfied here. B

Draft: It's too early to really say, but the difference in approach was apparent. Additionally, it's been nice to see the org be a little more aggressive with these new kids and getting them playing early. INC

I would love to submit an additional category for judgment: Tigers Social Media During Scott Harris' first year.  Harris inherited a mess all around with this organization. Farm system was in rough shape, very little positive to say, it was common, it not expected, for this team to finish high 90s/100s for losses. And a few months later, the organization is probably in better shape that it has been in a long time.... in the case of the farm system, it's possible that it's a better and more sustainable farm that it has been in my lifetime even.

Despite all of that, despite the fact that they are beating the low expectations set for them at the outset of the season, I get the impression that a lot of folks think Harris is doing a terrible job or think he should be run out of town. And it's sort of ridiculous. I get the disappointment after the ERod trade fell through or the fact that the Candelario decision didn't work out.... I also get the urge to just promote Colt Keith as fast as possible (certain folks with podcasts were ready to promote him after 80 ABs in Erie this year, iirc), but I also think that we've seen examples in the past of guys getting promoted too fast or before they are ready (ie. Spencer Torkelson) and how hard that pressure can be on those players. 

I understand that this fanbase is jaded after years of bad teams, but the way that the outward, social media portion of the fanbase has treated this first year isn't far removed from the "Jeff Riger" or "Mad Dog Russo" style of shock jock commentary that brings out the worst in sports fans. And given the results on the field and the marked improvement, it's completely unwarranted. D-

Edited September 3, 2023 by mtutiger

[Motor City Sonics]

Don't know that we can grade him until his first draft class has 2-3 years to develop.     Also, we don't know if Chris Illitch has put limitations on any kind of spending.        I'll give him an A on replacing the scouting department and I'll give him an A for Comerica Park changes.   The rest is wait-and-see.       

Feels like he botched the trade deadline, but E-Rod may have been telling him something and then backed out in the last minute.  

The pre-season Phillies trade is a wash.  I like Vierling and don't think they'll miss Soto or Clemens at all.   Maton is a total disappointment and it feels like they're kind of done with him already. 

The second Phillies trade is kind of a wash too.  Lorenzen was only here for a year and we got another team's Top 10 prospect.   Turned out better than I thought. 

[mtutiger]

10 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Feels like he botched the trade deadline, but E-Rod may have been telling him something and then backed out in the last minute.  

Not to revisit this conversation / debate again, but it bears repeating that there's really no getting around having parties take each other at their word when dealing with a no-trade clause. It's a leap of faith that literally any GM/PBO in that situation would have to take, regardless of the player or teams involved

That's the thing that makes it hard for me to stick it all on him... 

[Edman85]

Public biweekly major league and semimonthly minor league injury reports. May not help the team win, but I like it.

[Motor City Sonics]

24 minutes ago, romad1 said:

Is the guy the Nats just lost Mike Rizzo of any interest as GM or is it a lock that he's going to the White Sox?

My grade:  B

Positives:  Lots of positive development of the position players.  The AAA offense is thumping teams every night according to my MILB app which can only mean that some of these clubbers are coming North at some point.   The big three of Riley, Spencer and Kerry appear to be a core worth preserving.  There is the basis of a future rotation in Skubal, Manning, Olson with possible FA centerpiece like Erod (who appears to be on the Michigan Chamber of Commerce for all he loves it here).

Negatives:  That AAA pitching staff appears to be tied together with banyan vines and spit.  That does not bode well for the future.  

For this to mean a winning season in 2024, he needs an offseason like the Detroit Lions offseason.  Having that offseason required a surge in 2023.  I'm not sure we had that surge to the degree necessary. 

AAA pitching isn't where I'm looking for future gains.   AAA is a storage shed for pitchers you might need in a pinch, AA and lower is where you look to the future and it's not so bad. 

Someone could win the ALC with 80-83 wins in 2024 probably.   I don't think the Twins are that good and with their history, they might break up the team in another year.   The White Sox are the wild card.  There's a ton of individual talent on that team, but the vibe is a disaster.  You get the right skipper in there and they could turn it around quick.  

For the Tigers it's still about 2025 and beyond.  You could do enough to make next year fun, but they shouldn't make any moves that hurt them for beyond next year and that might mean sitting on some rookies next year that underperform like Tork did last year.    What I am hoping for is that the 2025 Tigers are like last year's Orioles - where you see it's coming and now they look like they'll be a very good team for awhile (though I trust their owner to screw it up somehow).    I think that's what they are doing and I think that if they don't believe Colt Keith is ready on Opening Day, he won't be here.   Same for Malloy, who is a tricky prospect because he looks like only a DH. 

[Shinzaki]

Player development seems to have improved...that's the big thing

[Toddwert]

too bad we dont have one of these evaluation for mid Al era because I think some of you would've given him all A's just because he did things differently from Dombrowski

[chasfh]

His grade is mostly incomplete because many of the moves he has made have longer term payoffs than just now.

The cleaning house is probably the most substantial thing he has done, plus the rescuing of former prospects who were in danger of no longer being considered prospects but who are now once again considered prospects. Those are probably his most impressive concrete accomplishments so far.

I believe the decision-sciences aspect of running a team, the part which made Avila go “huh?!”, is part and parcel of the cleaning house because this is where that aspect would have had any real impact by this time. We will get more insights into how analytics impacts trades, free agent signings, etc., but that’s really incomplete as of now.

I don’t think he has gotten any real chance to make an impactful free agent pickup because last winter Detroit was not in a position of being a desirable location with a team built to win now, and we almost certainly won’t be that this winter, either. So the idea of picking up a Matt Chapman-level guy—which a lot of fans are demanding to see even with a substantial overpay—isn’t on the table yet.

The trades he has made so far have shown some promise, but it’s still too early to call, even with Maton, who everyone here is writing off but actually who had better numbers in the second half than Vierling (and who is killing it at Toledo now). The waiver wire pickups have already skunked Avila’s record with his pickup of Tyler Holton alone, and even Andy Ibanez has given us some positive results at times. But teams don’t build winning rosters with only waiver wire picks and minor league free agents—those more like round roaters out that way. I think Harris has potential on this front in the future.

The draft looked pretty good but again, the grade on that is also incomplete.

I’m with Oblong, the hiring of a GM is pretty more cosmetic than people would think. It’s not as though Harris will kick himself upstairs completely when he does so.

Two things mentioned here, failing to keep Jeimer and to trade Rodriguez, are things he has to take responsibility for because of his position, but I think both of them might have been more out of his control than people believe.

Overall, the report card is still incomplete, but I do think that he is trending strongly toward getting a solid A. I think we probably should have the ability to give him a solid grade a couple of years from now.

 

Edited September 3, 2023 by chasfh

[Dan Gilmore]

It’s been brought up before that Avila had a reasonably good plan, just failed to execute much of it very well. So there were changes that took steps in the direction we now see, but lots of stumbles, or poor judgement. Trades especially.

[chasfh]

I don’t think Avila had as good of a plan as he did giving lip service to having a plan. 

[Tiger337]

5 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I don’t think Avila had as good of a plan as he did giving lip service to having a plan. 

I think his big picture plan of collecting young talent was similar to Harris' plan.  Harris might be better at player development, but almost all of the developing players were acquired by Avila.