2023-24 Detroit Tigers Offseason Thread

[chasfh]

2 hours ago, Edman85 said:

Want me to throw out a name? If the Dodgers decline Max Muncy's option, sign me up.

Twi things: (1) Do you think the Dodgers are going to decline Max's option and are ready to hand the job to Michael Busch? He had a rough go at the top this year; (2) Do you think Max will go for anything less than three years?

Edited October 3, 2023 by chasfh

[chasfh]

4 hours ago, Toddwert said:

you dont think he'd take 12 million for 2 years ?or we make a trade for a 3rd baseman

I know how some people around here sucks ass—I don't know where you stand on him—but Jeimer had a 3 WAR season this year, and a 3.7 WAR season just two years ago. That's worth more than two years, for sure. I think the more likely question is whether someone will give him four.

Since 2020, Max Muncy is only marginally better at third than Jeimer Candelario, who is three years younger, and I don't think Max is getting less than three years, either.

[1984Echoes]

44 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Two things: (1) Do you think the Dodgers are going to decline Max's option and are ready to hand the job to Michael Busch? He had a rough go at the top this year; (2) Do you think Max will go for anything less than three years?

And three more questions/ issues:

1) Max Muncy will be 34 next year. Why would we even consider him? Especially if it's 3-ish years?

2) Harris already said he's not blocking the kids with a veteran. So why are we even discussing 34 year old Max Muncy?

3) If a guy is not going to be appreciably better than what we already have (Jung/ Malloy & Keith all have very high end bats, but maybe questionable fielding at 3B); so whoever we discuss as a better option at 3B better have both a high-end glove and bat, or an adequate bat and superb fielding. Max Muncy is declining... why is he even being discussed?

[Edman85]

My rationale for Muncy is he has played a lot of 1B/2B/3B over his career, so you aren't necessarily blocking anybody unless both Jung and Keith bang down the door. He can go to where he is needed, and unlike some of the LH outfielders on the market, his platoon split is neutral and he is a decent fit in that regard.

I do agree there is decline risk, but he's been a reliable 2-5 win player the last six years.

[Edman85]

List of players who signed as free agents in the 2022-23 offseason and put up at least 1.5 WAR in the first year of their deal. Their terms and how they entered the free agent market. No conclusions, just wanted to share. Also, don't feel like dealing with the formatting...

Player	fWAR	Team	Years	Total $ (M)	FA Entry
Dansby Swanson	4.9	Cubs	7	177	Major
Zach Eflin	4.8	Rays	3	40	Major
Xander Bogaerts	4.4	Padres	11	280	Major
Brandon Nimmo	4.4	Mets	8	162	Major
Cody Bellinger	4.1	Cubs	1	17.5	Non-Tender
Trea Turner	3.8	Phillies	11	300	Major
Kodai Senga	3.4	Mets	5	75	Japan
Jeimer Candelario	3.3	Nationals	1	5	Non-Tender
Justin Verlander	3.3	Mets	2	86.67	Major
Seth Lugo	2.8	Padres	1	7.5	Major
Chris Bassitt	2.6	Blue Jays	3	63	Major
Michael Wacha	2.6	Padres	1	7.5	Major
Kyle Gibson	2.6	Orioles	1	10	Major
Brandon Drury	2.5	Padres	2	17	Major
Willi Castro	2.5	Twins	1	1.8	Non-Tender
Nathan Eovaldi	2.5	Rangers	2	34	Major
Taijuan Walker	2.5	Phillies	4	72	Major
Brandon Belt	2.3	Blue Jays	1	9.3	Major
Clayton Kershaw	2.3	Dodgers	1	20	Major
Jason Heyward	2.2	Dodgers	Minor		Released
Kevin Kiermaier	2.2	Blue Jays	1	9	Major
J.D Martinez	2.2	Dodgers	1	10	Major
Mike Clevinger	2.2	White Sox	1	12	Major
Matt Strahm	2	Phillies	2	15	Major
Adam Duvall	1.9	Red Sox	1	7	Major
Tommy Pham	1.8	Mets	1	6	Major
Mike Tauchman	1.8	Cubs	Minor		Korea
Aroldis Chapman	1.8	Royals	1	3.75	Major
Carlos Santana	1.7	Pirates	1	6.75	Major
Michael Lorenzen	1.7	Tigers	1	8.5	Major
Jameson Taillon	1.6	Cubs	4	68	Major
Jeff Hoffman	1.5	Phillies	1	1.3	Released
Jose Quintana	1.5	Mets	2	26	Major
Chris Martin	1.5	Red Sox	2	17.5	Major
Jacob deGrom	1.5	Rangers	5	185	Major

[Hart]

I'll throw out a name and cover myself from the arrows being thrown around: Jake Cronenworth.  Local kid, coming off a couple of down years and might be getting squeezed in San Diego so the price should be reasonable, fits position of need, plays good defense, and I think due for a bounce back.  

I am guessing San Diego would be very willing to listen to offers for him.  

 

 

 

[casimir]

8 minutes ago, Hart said:

I'll throw out a name and cover myself from the arrows being thrown around: Jake Cronenworth.  Local kid, coming off a couple of down years and might be getting squeezed in San Diego so the price should be reasonable, fits position of need, plays good defense, and I think due for a bounce back.  

I am guessing San Diego would be very willing to listen to offers for him.  

 

 

 

I’ve thought about Cronenworth as well.  It’s a long term deal, going through 2030, but never above $13M per season.  A lefty handed bat on the IF is nice, but defensively does he fit well?  Does he have the range for 2B?  Does he have the arm for 3B?

[Tenacious D]

14 minutes ago, casimir said:

I’ve thought about Cronenworth as well.  It’s a long term deal, going through 2030, but never above $13M per season.  A lefty handed bat on the IF is nice, but defensively does he fit well?  Does he have the range for 2B?  Does he have the arm for 3B?

I really don’t want middling guys.  Get a superstar or let the kids play.  I’d rather Keith get the PT, instead of someone like Cronenworth. At some point, both Keith and Jung should be up.

[Hart]

2 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

I really don’t want middling guys.  Get a superstar or let the kids play.  I’d rather Keith get the PT, instead of someone like Cronenworth. At some point, both Keith and Jung should be up.

Cronenworth at his peak was not a middling guy.  The bet would be he can get back to that or something close to it.  It's a gamble for sure but I'd like to see Harris take a gamble somewhere.  

[casimir]

11 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

I really don’t want middling guys.  Get a superstar or let the kids play.  I’d rather Keith get the PT, instead of someone like Cronenworth. At some point, both Keith and Jung should be up.

 

11 hours ago, Hart said:

Cronenworth at his peak was not a middling guy.  The bet would be he can get back to that or something close to it.  It's a gamble for sure but I'd like to see Harris take a gamble somewhere.  

I guess the more I think about it, the more I don't like the length of the contract coupled with the fact that he might be declining already.  At his peak was 2021 and might be the blip in the radar.  That's questionable.  What isn't questionable is that each season after 2021 saw a decline (I'm tossing out his debut season of 2020 because 2020).  Do the scouts see something which indicate a bounce back is likely?  We have numbers to look at, but they've got other data points to use.

If they did happen to bring him aboard (1) what is the entirety of the trade and (2) what happens with Keith & Jung?  Both are a part of the equation.  I question where he fits in defensively now and the future.  If he is passable at 2B/3B now, then it doesn't make sense to acquire him knowing that Torkelson is already at 1B and I prefer keeping the DH spot for partial rest days or some final piece of the puzzle type acquisition that cannot field.

[RatkoVarda]

Cronenworth could be had for very little player capital as Padres need to move salary. Could easily do worse. Might be able to do better.

[gehringer_2]

15 hours ago, Hart said:

Cronenworth at his peak was not a middling guy.  The bet would be he can get back to that or something close to it.  It's a gamble for sure but I'd like to see Harris take a gamble somewhere.  

Hard to know where the Tigers are on Kieth vis a vis 2nd vs 3rd. I don't want to bring in a 2b if that's going to be Keith's preferred position - things are already getting log jammed there. If Keith is going to play 2nd, go find a honest to MLB glove for 3rd. If Keith is your 3b, commit to him there.

Edited October 4, 2023 by gehringer_2

[1984Echoes]

And the problem is that we are not really going to find any of this out until the 2024 season.

Minor league numbers be damned... MLB is different than MiLB. Different pressures, crowds, fields, lighting (HAH!!!), etc.

I am not interested in an IF guy unless he's coming back in trade (and we're sending out a Jung or Malloy or a Keith) AND he's a clear upgrade with the glove at 3B (I'm not counting 2B only, it's too easy to fit someone in there and harder at The Hot Corner, so... 3B'man only), with enough offense, or more, to be above respectable.

I don't see any other way to get through this, except patience. And NOT a knee-jerk reaction to just find someone "better" no matter the cost or fit. And Harris has SPECIFICALLY stated that he's not going to sign someone who is going to block these kids. 

As far as I'm concerned, this is not a REAL conversation because it (trading for, or signing, a 2B/3B player) is not based in reality, at all.

[Tenacious D]

Do we really want Cronenworth at either 1B (replaces Tork), 2B (blocks Keith) or 3B (blocks Jung)? I don’t.

Now ask me if I want Soto or Tatis over Carpenter?

[1984Echoes]

2 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Do we really want Cronenworth at either 1B (replaces Tork), 2B (blocks Keith) or 3B (blocks Jung)? I don’t.

Now ask me if I want Soto or Tatis over Carpenter?

That I am on board with.

Also:

Ask me if we should add pitching this offseason?

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

Do we really want Cronenworth at either 1B (replaces Tork), 2B (blocks Keith) or 3B (blocks Jung)? I don’t.

Now ask me if I want Soto or Tatis over Carpenter?

I also don’t believe the Padres are going to dump Cronenworth to save money. His is actually a favorable contract, considering what they think they can get out of him.

[KL2]

4 hours ago, chasfh said:

I also don’t believe the Padres are going to dump Cronenworth to save money. His is actually a favorable contract, considering what they think they can get out of him.

I'm not sure a 1 war player, who is 30, making 12 million until 2031 should be called "favorable"

[Hart]

7 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

Do we really want Cronenworth at either 1B (replaces Tork), 2B (blocks Keith) or 3B (blocks Jung)? I don’t.

Now ask me if I want Soto or Tatis over Carpenter?

I can't see Soto being traded.  Teams are not going to give up a premium prospect for one year of Soto.  The Padres won't get that and won't trade him for less than that (at least in the offseason).  Tatis has two years left so if the Padres shop him, I could see that potentially happening.  

[Hart]

1 hour ago, KL2 said:

I'm not sure a 1 war player, who is 30, making 12 million until 2031 should be called "favorable"

I agree.  Which is why I think he could be a buy low candidate.  I definitely wouldn't want him though if his last two years (1000 abs) is the new baseline for him.  The gamble is he can bounce back to what he did in his first 750 major league at bats. 

 

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, KL2 said:

I'm not sure a 1 war player, who is 30, making 12 million until 2031 should be called "favorable"

Maybe he’s a 1 WAR player this year in the same way Candelario was a 0.6 WAR player last year.

Edited October 5, 2023 by chasfh

[chasfh]

42 minutes ago, Hart said:

I agree.  Which is why I think he could be a buy low candidate.  I definitely wouldn't want him though if his last two years (1000 abs) is the new baseline for him.  The gamble is he can bounce back to what he did in his first 750 major league at bats. 

 

If the gamble is that Cronenworth bounces back, which I agree is probably a good gamble, then he’s not a “1 WAR player”.

Not that it matters to the Tigers because I don’t want him on the team anyway, and I think I’m gonna get my wish on that.

Edited October 5, 2023 by chasfh

[1984Echoes]

55 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Maybe he’s a 1 WAR player this year in the same way Candelario was a 0.6 WAR player last year.

Does that work for the next 8 years too?

[chasfh]

8 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

Does that work for the next 8 years too?

Who knows? There are no guarantees in baseball, either way.

[KL2]

9 hours ago, chasfh said:

Maybe he’s a 1 WAR player this year in the same way Candelario was a 0.6 WAR player last year.

Certainty possible. But, since we don't know, that uncertainty plus the length of the deal, at least to me, hardly makes it "favorable"

[chasfh]

5 minutes ago, KL2 said:

Certainty possible. But, since we don't know, that uncertainty plus the length of the deal, at least to me, hardly makes it "favorable"

I agree if Cronenworth is done done, then it’s unfavorable. If he projects to even 1.5 average WAR for the rest of the contract, that’s probably about breakeven for a playoff contender. Won’t be our problem either way.