2023-24 Detroit Tigers Offseason Thread

[casimir]

25 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Chapman is a free agent.  I don't necessarily think they should sign him (depends on how many years it would take), but he would be a clear upgrade.  

Has he been associated with any teams so far this offseason?  I would think the longer he goes unsigned, the fewer years he could command on a deal.  I'm not as confident as others in Keith and Jung hitting the ground running enough to make an impact this season.  Chapman would clearly be an upgrade to the lineup and defensively.  And if he were to sign, that would free up Vierling to pretty much handle OF duties, specifically backup CF.  I'd only go 3 years, but doubt that'd be something he'd settle for right now.  He'll be 31 at the end of April and he's a Boras client.  If anything, maybe if he's available around the beginning of camp, maybe he'd do a shorter multi year deal with an early player opt out?  I don't know, seems unlikely it would come to that for him.

[Tiger337]

Chapman had an interesting profile last year.  His stats were terrible from May to September, but his statcast numbers were really impressive:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/matt-chapman-656305?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb 

[RatkoVarda]

They should of course sign Chapman. He would almost certainly have the highest WAR on the team in 2024. A genuine two way player. Front load a 5 year deal with the goal to get him to opt out after 2 or 3 years.

[gehringer_2]

43 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Chapman had an interesting profile last year.  His stats were terrible from May to September, but his statcast numbers were really impressive:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/matt-chapman-656305?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb 

Yup - it's hard to see anything in his hitting results that indicated a skill drop off. About the only shift in his plate discipline or batted ball results is that he pulled the ball less last year than in the previous couple, though not less than he had at other times earlier in his career. That probably contributed to the reduction in HR/FB but that was in spite of no reduction in barrel rate. 

But the other weird thing with Chapman is the huge home/away splits. Some years he's better at home, some on the road, but a big split 4 of the last 5 yrs.

Edited December 29, 2023 by gehringer_2

[RatkoVarda]

Payroll has dropped from 17th largest to 19th to - for now - 23rd. Even signing Chapman would NOT give them an average ML payroll.

the idea that young guys Greene-Tork-Carpenter would be aided by 2 rookies - Meadows and Keith - early,

and 2 more rookies - Malloy and Jung - later, and that team will win in 2024 is a fantasy 

[gehringer_2]

12 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

Payroll has dropped from 17th largest to 19th to - for now - 23rd. Even signing Chapman would NOT give them an average ML payroll.

the idea that young guys Greene-Tork-Carpenter would be aided by 2 rookies - Meadows and Keith - early,

and 2 more rookies - Malloy and Jung - later, and that team will win in 2024 is a fantasy 

Agree. I don't think you want to block Keith, but he's a 2B now so 3B is still wide open. Jung has not played above AA. You don't fill out MLB rosters based on guys in AA. I don't want to see Malloy at 3b, ever. Chapman would  give us a measurable team  ERA reduction compared to last season's play at 3B.

Maybe he is asking for the moon, but I hope they are least talking.

Edited December 29, 2023 by gehringer_2

[SoCalTiger]

The desperate SF Giants will probably prevent any Chapman discount and Boras has already played that with the overpay for Jung Ho Lee. Doubt we are in play. Still waiting for Harris' "calculated risk " unless it was taking Clark over Langford last draft.

[Toddwert]

what about trading one of  either SGL or Reese Oleson for someone like Jordan Westburg or another Orioles infield prospects?

[RatkoVarda]

12 minutes ago, Toddwert said:

what about trading one of  either SGL or Reese Oleson for someone like Jordan Westburg or another Orioles infield prospects?

that would be a great move; we are still waiting for an impactful trade from Harris

[Tiger337]

29 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

that would be a great move; we are still waiting for an impactful trade from Harris

too risky.  

[Toddwert]

15 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

too risky.  

probably😉

[casimir]

2 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

The desperate SF Giants will probably prevent any Chapman discount and Boras has already played that with the overpay for Jung Ho Lee. Doubt we are in play. Still waiting for Harris' "calculated risk " unless it was taking Clark over Langford last draft.

That's exactly what I see with Chapman.  San Francisco signs him to essentially what he is looking for.  I think I saw 6/$150K as a projection somewheres on the interwebs.

[casimir]

1 hour ago, Toddwert said:

what about trading one of  either SGL or Reese Oleson for someone like Jordan Westburg or another Orioles infield prospects?

I would hope Harris could find a GM that would be as in love with Gipson-Long as some of the Tiger fan base seems to be.

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, casimir said:

That's exactly what I see with Chapman.  San Francisco signs him to essentially what he is looking for.  I think I saw 6/$150K as a projection somewheres on the interwebs.

The Giant have no shot at beating the Dodgers at their own game. Better to pour all your resources into development like the Tigers and hope to be ready for when LA implodes - and then hope they do!

Edited December 29, 2023 by gehringer_2

[alex]

1 hour ago, Toddwert said:

what about trading one of  either SGL or Reese Oleson for someone like Jordan Westburg or another Orioles infield prospects?

I too like the idea. However, Baltimore simply does not seem to want to move any prospects per say. They barely traded last deadline (the did acquire JFlaherty but not for top type prospects.) The O's were a team that could of went deeper into the post season had they had more SP perhaps.

If they want to acquire some P sooner or later they will have to move prospects. The thing is they have 'several' INFs and there is no way they are all going to play on the team - so why not us?

[alex]

8 minutes ago, casimir said:

That's exactly what I see with Chapman.  San Francisco signs him to essentially what he is looking for.  I think I saw 6/$150K as a projection somewheres on the interwebs.

That would not be a wise move IMHO for SF... but... they may do something like this AND more.

[casimir]

7 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

The Giant have no shot at beating the Dodgers at their own game. Better to pour all your resources into development like the Tigers and hope to be ready for when LA implodes - and then hope they do!

 

1 minute ago, alex said:

That would not be a wise move IMHO for SF... but... they may do something like this AND more.

Oh, I'm not saying it'd be a wise move by San Francisco, definitely not by itself.  But they've allegedly been ready to spend, yet can't find anyone that will take their money.  So I can see a move just to make a move.

[Longgone]

17 minutes ago, casimir said:

I would hope Harris could find a GM that would be as in love with Gipson-Long as some of the Tiger fan base seems to be.

He did, Jeff Greenberg.

[Tiger337]

47 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

The Giant have no shot at beating the Dodgers at their own game. Better to pour all your resources into development like the Tigers and hope to be ready for when LA implodes - and then hope they do!

The problem is that LA is smart as well as wealthy.  

[gehringer_2]

14 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

The problem is that LA is smart as well as wealthy.  

Let LA have their 100 wins. Just get to the last playoff spot and hope your pitchers are peaking!

Edited December 29, 2023 by gehringer_2

[Timmitch55]

4 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

Payroll has dropped from 17th largest to 19th to - for now - 23rd. Even signing Chapman would NOT give them an average ML payroll.

the idea that young guys Greene-Tork-Carpenter would be aided by 2 rookies - Meadows and Keith - early,

and 2 more rookies - Malloy and Jung - later, and that team will win in 2024 is a fantasy 

Sign JD Martinez while we are at it

[Tiger337]

8 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Let LA have their 100 wins. Just get to the last playoff spot and hope your pitchers are peaking!

yeah, that is what is has come down to.  

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, casimir said:

 

Oh, I'm not saying it'd be a wise move by San Francisco, definitely not by itself.  But they've allegedly been ready to spend, yet can't find anyone that will take their money.  So I can see a move just to make a move.

We can hope SF is more worried about SS and OF and leaves Chapman be. Meanwhile with Keith at 2B, 3B is the perfect signing for the Tigers.

[Edman85]

Pecota has Chapman at a .217/.311/.393 slash line, with plus defense, good for a 1.7 WAR (580 PA). Steamer is a bit more optimistic.

Regardless, I'm not sure that's the type of guy you commit to long term. I started getting some Mike Moustakas vibes and got the heeby jeebies. If When he ages off the position, the bat absolutely cannot handle 1B/DH. The back half of his upcoming contract figures to be an albatross, and really doesn't go very far toward upgrading the offense, if that is your intent.

Oh yeah...

Andy Ibanez .248/.305/.376 0.5 WAR (202 PA)

Zach McKinstry .222/.296/.361 0.2 WAR (361 PA)

Jace Jung .226/.309/.363 0.4 WAR (251 PA)

Colt Keith .241/.306/.387 0.6 WAR (294 PA)

 

Edited December 29, 2023 by Edman85

[gehringer_2]

7 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Pecota has Chapman at a .217/.311/.393 slash line, with plus defense, good for a 1.7 WAR (580 PA). Steamer is a bit more optimistic.

Regardless, I'm not sure that's the type of guy you commit to long term. I started getting some Mike Moustakas vibes and got the heeby jeebies. If When he ages off the position, the bat absolutely cannot handle 1B/DH. The back half of his upcoming contract figures to be an albatross, and really doesn't go very far toward upgrading the offense, if that is your intent.

Oh yeah...

Andy Ibanez .248/.305/.376 0.5 WAR (202 PA)

Zach McKinstry .222/.296/.361 0.2 WAR (361 PA)

Jace Jung .226/.309/.363 0.4 WAR (251 PA)

Colt Keith .241/.306/.387 0.6 WAR (294 PA)

 

you left out Vierling - Steamer projection 1.1 WAR. Can he handle 3b on any regular basis? We've seen him make some good plays there, and some not so good....

They didn't seem to want to play him there much so I assume they don't think he can. Or maybe he doesn't want to.