2023-24 Detroit Tigers Offseason Thread

[Tiger337]

10 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

one could do a deep dive on this - weather is big driving factor  - but it should show up as similar regional groupings, e.g Cleve/Chi/Det and/or NY/Phil etc., moving in concert and should also correlate to heating/cooling degree day data that utility Cos. generate.

In any case, COPAs numbers have moved through such a large differential it's hard to say much about the park from them. I am curious if other parks have that much noise in their results. I do remember we were in Minneapolis the year Target opened the factors were low and everyone was really worried about how big the park was playing and turned out to just be a cold summer in that part of the country.

I think every part will have a lot of variation year to year.  I think you need a three year rolling average to get any kind of meaningful time trend here.  Statcast does have an option where you can do that and it smooths it out quite a bit.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-venue?venueId=2394&condition=All&rolling=1&batSide=All&tracking=All&speed=95 plus&angle=FB-angle&wowyBatSide=All

[gehringer_2]

9 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I think every part will have a lot of variation year to year.  I think you need a three year rolling average to get any kind of meaningful time trend here.  Statcast does have an option where you can do that and it smooths it out quite a bit.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-venue?venueId=2394&condition=All&rolling=1&batSide=All&tracking=All&speed=95 plus&angle=FB-angle&wowyBatSide=All

right, but if one were to go looking for drivers/correlates, like matching to weather etc, you would want to use un-smoothed data.

[chasfh]

Maybe we should build a time machine and go back to January 2018 and sign J. D. Martinez.

https://www.mlb.com/news/comerica-park-may-offer-hitters-big-advantage-c265913828

Edited January 1, 2024 by chasfh

[Edman85]

I saw Sakowski got a job somewhere and while going back and looking for his admission I screenshotted, I found the Freep Tigers Podcast cohost's response that I had forgotten about.

[LongLiveMaroth]

18 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

I saw Sakowski got a job somewhere and while going back and looking for his admission I screenshotted, I found the Freep Tigers Podcast cohost's response that I had forgotten about.

Wasn't it at Duke? Also sportz is certainly not known for his tact. What did you say to elicit that response? 

[Tenacious D]

2 hours ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

Wasn't it at Duke? Also sportz is certainly not known for his tact. What did you say to elicit that response? 

Yeah—saw it was with Duke baseball.

[Edman85]

8 hours ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

Wasn't it at Duke? Also sportz is certainly not known for his tact. What did you say to elicit that response? 

Pointed out sakowski's plagiarism.

[Edman85]

Link to the thread

https://twitter.com/sportz5176/status/1218743070197452801?t=94DwUCZEt8490FJ1y-SXCQ&s=19

[LongLiveMaroth]

Honestly surprised it is that high...

[Tigermojo]

42 minutes ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

Honestly surprised it is that high...

At this point, I think it's more like those other teams got worse but there are still pitchers available so the list could change.

[gehringer_2]

the one weakness of projections is that they favor established players who are more likely to be past the peak of their careers and underestimate the guys coming up who don't yet have track records. I mean, Kershaw is a huge asset for the Dodgers, but at this point he also has a higher probability of fall off or injury.

[Tiger337]

9 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

the one weakness of projections is that they favor established players who are more likely to be past the peak of their careers and underestimate the guys coming up who don't yet have track records. I mean, Kershaw is a huge asset for the Dodgers, but at this point he also has a higher probability of fall off or injury.

Projections do not favor players who are past their primes.  They are appropriately harsh in projecting older and injury prone players.  For example, the FanGraphs projections have Kershaw pitching only 91 innings next year.  It is fair to say that they are tough on young unproven players.  On the other hand, most unproven players never prove themselves.  Because of the variation in possible results, teams depending on a lot of young players are tough to project.  The weakness of projections is that they don't do a great job projecting players who are difficult to project!

[Edman85]

That's kinda why I like Pecota, because they output percentiles. I sprinkle the 90th and 95th percentile projections into my fantasy spreadsheet to get a little upside into my rankings. Projections are a mean, so yeah, a guy on the upswing is going to have a pretty low tail that will drag down the average. Still, some guys still in the minors do pop.

Edited January 4, 2024 by Edman85

[Tiger337]

2 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

That's kinda why I like Pecota, because they output percentiles. I sprinkle the 90th and 95th percentile projections into my fantasy spreadsheet to get a little upside into my rankings. Projections are a mean, so yeah, a guy on the upswing is going to have a pretty low tail that will drag down the average. Still, some guys still in the minors do pop.

I use projections as a baseline.  I will adjust players up or down if I think a player is ready to break out or if I think the projection is are not accounting for an injury.  The other big thing is playing time.  Fans who follow their team closely are probably better at guessing playing time than the projections.  

[Edman85]

31 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I use projections as a baseline.  I will adjust players up or down if I think a player is ready to break out or if I think the projection is are not accounting for an injury.  The other big thing is playing time.  Fans who follow their team closely are probably better at guessing playing time than the projections.  

I don't want to give too much of my secret sauce away, but yeah, I Baseline everything to per PA so that is is independent of playing time projections. Then come draft time, double check to make sure a guy is going to play.

[Tenacious D]

6 hours ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

Honestly surprised it is that high...

I’m curious who they think is in our rotation to even be able to rank us.

[Tiger337]

1 minute ago, Tenacious D said:

I’m curious who they think is in our rotation to even be able to rank us.

I would guess that they included more than five as all the innings pitched would have to add up to a full season and that's noy going to happen with five starters.  The Tigers depth probably helped them in the projections as it should for real.  

[Edman85]

So it hasn't baked in ZIPS yet. Not sure how apples to apples the original tweet is. Not sure why they include Boyd, unless they think he is re-signing. I could see that happening in February when he can go straight to the 60-day.

Edited January 4, 2024 by Edman85

[Tiger337]

24 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

So it hasn't baked in ZIPS yet. Not sure how apples to apples the original tweet is. Not sure why they include Boyd, unless they think he is re-signing. I could see that happening in February when he can go straight to the 60-day.

It adds up to 162 starts without Boyd, so I assume he's not included in the team totals.  

[gehringer_2]

7 hours ago, Edman85 said:

So it hasn't baked in ZIPS yet. Not sure how apples to apples the original tweet is. Not sure why they include Boyd, unless they think he is re-signing. I could see that happening in February when he can go straight to the 60-day.

is that W column pitcher wins or team wins in a pitcher's start? I guess it has to be the former....

if Skubal only ends up with 11 wins the Tigers are toast....again. 😥

Edited January 5, 2024 by gehringer_2

[Tiger337]

29 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

is that W column pitcher wins or team wins in a pitcher's start? I guess it has to be the former....

if Skubal only ends up with 11 wins the Tigers are toast....again. 😥

They basically have every Tigers pitcher with a .500 W/L record, so I wouldn't put much stock in it.  W/L record is pretty meaningless with pitchers throwing 5-6 innings per start anyway.  

[gehringer_2]

8 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

It adds up to 162 starts without Boyd, so I assume he's not included in the team totals.  

Do teams have any CBA obligation to support a player (rehab facilities etc) who was injured while under contract whose contract has run out?

[casimir]

13 hours ago, Edman85 said:

So it hasn't baked in ZIPS yet. Not sure how apples to apples the original tweet is. Not sure why they include Boyd, unless they think he is re-signing. I could see that happening in February when he can go straight to the 60-day.

I don't know how much I would believe in the number of relief appearances assigned to guys like Maeda, Gipson-Long, and Flores.

[Tiger337]

2 hours ago, casimir said:

I don't know how much I would believe in the number of relief appearances assigned to guys like Maeda, Gipson-Long, and Flores.

Probably not, but it doesn't affect their starting pitching staff rank.  

[casimir]

42 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

Probably not, but it doesn't affect their starting pitching staff rank.  

In terms of GS, you are probably correct, and I suppose that is the point of the chart.  But it just stuck out to me as questionable.