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2023 MLB Playoffs


Toddwert

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6 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I'd be more interested in the series result than just the first game, though generally a 1st game win tilt the odds the rest of the way in the winner's favor. For instance, a confounding factor would be that the (better) team on the layoff may also have the single most dominant pitcher in the series, that factor could wash out all the others for the first game.

The list series is here if someone wants to do the work.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/layoffs-havent-hindered-playoff-teams-historically/

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Of course we're going to feel differently about the Tigers beating the Yankees in the playoffs.  We're Tiger fans and the opposition was the Yankees.

But take away those prejudices and look at the differences in the regular season records of those 3 series vs the current Diamondbacks vs Dodgers 16 game split.  In 2006 the Yankees were only 2 games better than the Tigers during the regular season.  Same difference in 2011.  The divide was 7 games in 2012.  It ain't the same conversation.

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So what's the solution?  It's sports.  Lower seeded teams beat higher seeded teams all the time.  It's why they play rather than just hand out post season awards.  I don't see a problem here to be solved. LA got to rest their team and start their stud for game 1, just like Houston did with Verlander.  Kershaw got bombed.  Verlander didn't.  That's how sports works.

Underdogs used to be a good story.  Now people are whining. 

 

 

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I would like to see more research on it (if its available), but I suspect there's something to baseball that suggests the rust vs rest is bad for a resting team.  The regular season is a day-to-day thing.  I understand it cannot be replicated exactly in the playoffs.  Travel days which are also a built in make up day, I get that.  But some teams had 5 off days, 1 game day, an off day, a game day, an off day,....   That's 2 games played in over a week.  That ain't baseball.  So, something needs to be done for that. 

With tiebreakers in use for postseason participation rather than game 163, playoffs start on Tuesday for everybody.  The scheduling for the first round, as is with byes involved, is fine.  Travel day on Friday.  The next round should start for everybody on Saturday and no more off days until a series changes locations.  Broadcasting shouldn't be an issue.  Don't worry about college football or the NFL.  TBS/TNT aren't covering those, utilize those channels, stream, do whatever to push the product along the lines of a normal baseball calendar that is conducive to the participating teams.  Or maybe they just need to go back down to 4 teams per league and everybody starts playing on day 1.  Its probably more likely to go from 6 to 8, especially after they expand.  Fine, I don't like 8, but its probably better that way rather than having byes in baseball.

Playoff qualification and seeding should be done according to regular season record rather than divisions/geography.  Reseed with each successive round.  You want the regular season to mean something?  If a division "winner" doesn't have a record that qualifies for the top 4 or 6 or 8 or whatever the playoff field is in a league, then they don't qualify.  Sorry, best records should be the resume.

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19 hours ago, CMRivdogs said:

They did do a split season playoff in 1981 with the strike season. The downside was St Louis and Cincinnati finished with best overall records in their divisions but didn't win either "half". 
 

With expanded playoff teams that could include the "best" overall teams in divisions if they don't win a half.

Yes, it is possible that a team could qualify for the playoffs in the first half, then become completely decimated as they simply play worse and get injured and start losing and then sell off at the deadline, and by end of September they are a shell of their first half selves, and yet here they are getting smoked in the playoffs and giving a legitimate good team an easy ride nobody else is getting.

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11 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

The list series is here if someone wants to do the work.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/layoffs-havent-hindered-playoff-teams-historically/

There was actually a very recent 15-game winning streak from 2015 into 2022 by teams with 4+ days rest over teams with two or fewer days rest. I wonder whether that made it into the Rosenthal article?

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1 hour ago, oblong said:

So what's the solution?  It's sports.  Lower seeded teams beat higher seeded teams all the time.  It's why they play rather than just hand out post season awards.  I don't see a problem here to be solved. LA got to rest their team and start their stud for game 1, just like Houston did with Verlander.  Kershaw got bombed.  Verlander didn't.  That's how sports works.

Underdogs used to be a good story.  Now people are whining. 

 

 

Unlike other sports, underdogs winning is not really a story in baseball because it happens so often.  It all feels random to me which I don't find entertaining.  I think the only solution is having fewer teams in the playoffs, so that only geat teams make it most years.  That's not going to happen.   In fact, I am pretty sure there will be more teams soon.  

 

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41 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Yes, it is possible that a team could qualify for the playoffs in the first half, then become completely decimated as they simply play worse and get injured and start losing and then sell off at the deadline, and by end of September they are a shell of their first half selves, and yet here they are getting smoked in the playoffs and giving a legitimate good team an easy ride nobody else is getting.

But if there are two sets of playoffs, then it doesn't really matter what happens to a team in the second half.  They can win their first half championship and fans can feel good about it. There doesn't need to be a set up where we glorify one champion whether it be the third wild card team or an 85-game divison winner.  Some years, a team wins two championships in one year, and that will be special like winning the Triple Crown in horse racing or multiple majors in golf.  

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1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

But if there are two sets of playoffs, then it doesn't really matter what happens to a team in the second half.  They can win their first half championship and fans can feel good about it. There doesn't need to be a set up where we glorify one champion whether it be the third wild card team or an 85-game divison winner.  Some years, a team wins two championships in one year, and that will be special like winning the Triple Crown in horse racing or multiple majors in golf.  

Right. And I would guess that since Baseball pretty much has mid-summer to itself, a 'summer championship' could easily become a bigger thing media wise and financially than the end of year tourney.

Edited by gehringer_2
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3 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

Unlike other sports, underdogs winning is not really a story in baseball because it happens so often.  It all feels random to me which I don't find entertaining.  I think the only solution is having fewer teams in the playoffs, so that only geat teams make it most years.  That's not going to happen.   In fact, I am pretty sure there will be more teams soon.  

 

I agree, the number of playoff teams isn't going to be reduced.  At the very least, great teams are not being excluded these days. so that's good. 

The 1993 Giants won 103 games but finished a game behind Atlanta.  Philly won the East with 97 wins.  103-59 is a pretty darn good season.  San Francisco got screwed twice by geography that season.  (1) By being the second best record in the West.  (2) Atlanta ain't even a western city!

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50 minutes ago, casimir said:

I agree, the number of playoff teams isn't going to be reduced.  At the very least, great teams are not being excluded these days. so that's good. 

The 1993 Giants won 103 games but finished a game behind Atlanta.  Philly won the East with 97 wins.  103-59 is a pretty darn good season.  San Francisco got screwed twice by geography that season.  (1) By being the second best record in the West.  (2) Atlanta ain't even a western city!

Now that they have close to a balanced schedule, they should eliminate divisions and just take the top six (or how ever many teams they feel is necessary).     

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Increase the playoffs to 8 teams.....................

First round - 5/8 and 6/7 play a three game series. Top 4 seeds get a bye.

Second round - 3 and 4 seed play the remaining two teams in a 5 game series.  Top 2 seeds get another bye.

Third round - 1 and 2 seed play the remaining 2 teams in a 7 game series.

World series

 

Yep, I'm saying that the best team in each league gets a bye until the LCS.   This way the best teams get rewarded for having the best record and the lower seeds have to prove they deserve to be there.

Edited by MIguy
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In back to back posts:

3 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

Now that they have close to a balanced schedule, they should eliminate divisions and just take the top six (or how ever many teams they feel is necessary).     

Love it.

3 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

They can still keep track of the wins and losses and stats over the 162 games of both halves combined.  

Hate it.

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1 hour ago, Toddwert said:

seems like every time I turn on the Twins games Maeda is giving up runs

You should’of watched him more against the Tigers.  He allowed only 4 runs in 15 innings this season.  Or, I guess maybe you did watch plenty and the offense flexed it’s muscles for you vs Maeda?

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