gehringer_2 Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 1 minute ago, oblong said: I know this has been discussed earlier but in a season covering 6 months and playing nearly every day is there a big difference between a 90 and 100 win team? I know perceptually there is. But come a series in October do you really know who is better? It’s 1.5 wins a month over that time and given changes in the makeup of a team…. It's really hard to say. So one way you could look at it would be to look at the variance in a team's winning percentage over some period of time - say wins/month, between different periods - IOW how up and down the team of interest is over the course of a season. You could then look at the difference between their average winning percentage and the variance in those numbers to get a finer predictor than a simple binomial on their overall record for the odds one team will defeat the other. But the problem is that over the course of the season players get hurt, other players join and leave the team, so 'team' is always a moving concept - and probably more so in baseball than other sports because of the length of the season and the mobility of minor league players. So it might be interesting to look at whether a team's winning percentage in it's last 50 games of the season is a better predictor of success in the playoff than their overall record. But then you remember the year the Rockies came into the playoff off something like a 20 game winning streak and promptly got bounced! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 2 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: It's really hard to say. So one way you could look at it would be to look at the variance in a team's winning percentage over some period of time - say wins/month, between different periods - IOW how up and down the team of interest is over the course of a season. You could then look at the difference between their average winning percentage and the variance in those numbers to get a finer predictor than a simple binomial on their overall record for the odds one team will defeat the other. But the problem is that over the course of the season players get hurt, other players join and leave the team, so 'team' is always a moving concept - and probably more so in baseball than other sports because of the length of the season and the mobility of minor league players. So it might be interesting to look at whether a team's winning percentage in it's last 50 games of the season is a better predictor of success in the playoff than their overall record. But then you remember the year the Rockies came into the playoff off something like a 20 game winning streak and promptly got bounced! Given all that then what’s the point of trying to figure it out? The playoffs in baseball is a tournament of most likely the best teams that season and those with better records are given some advantages. I don’t really know what else they are supposed to be if I am being honest. I enjoy watching them because it’s a higher quality of play with larger crowds and higher stakes. Just seems like the last year or so there’s been more belly aching about top seeded teams losing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Y’all saw that playoff stat that was flashed about Bochy? His teams have won 13 series in which they’ve won game one. They ain’t been eliminated in any series after winning game one. We can debate and opine and question and theorize all we want about which teams are better than the other and by how much and what that should mean. But can’t no one deny the heater that Texas is on. A six game winning streak is pretty impressive in the regular season. But in the playoffs? Gadzooks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 14 minutes ago, oblong said: Given all that then what’s the point of trying to figure it out? The playoffs in baseball is a tournament of most likely the best teams that season and those with better records are given some advantages. I don’t really know what else they are supposed to be if I am being honest. I enjoy watching them because it’s a higher quality of play with larger crowds and higher stakes. Just seems like the last year or so there’s been more belly aching about top seeded teams losing LOL - I guess I'm like Lee, I don't really care about the playoffs if my team isn't in them, the interest is strictly academic in terms of how you organize them. It goes back to what the league's objectives are in the end. You can play an unbiased tournament and just decide you are OK with that being what it is, that it will have next to nothing to do with determined the season's best team despite what the Media guys try to hype it into. Or you can try to devise that tourney what seeds teams to reward regular season performance. When all is said and done the latter may be a fool's errand, baseball just has too many randomizing inputs in a game for any reasonable length playoff format to actually determine a 'better' team with any regularity. So to me, that all adds up that the fair thing would be for there to be some greater rewards for your regular season performance separate from a ticket to a tournament that has no real value for determining anything about its entries. Maybe institute weighted scheduling like the NFL but the other way to reward good teams? Or just a pot of money for the players? Whatever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 The goal is to make as much money as possible while giving the bare minimum lip service to the competition aspect of it. in the modern era of the playoffs whats the home teams record compared to the regular season? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 13 minutes ago, casimir said: Y’all saw that playoff stat that was flashed about Bochy? His teams have won 13 series in which they’ve won game one. They ain’t been eliminated in any series after winning game one. We can debate and opine and question and theorize all we want about which teams are better than the other and by how much and what that should mean. But can’t no one deny the heater that Texas is on. A six game winning streak is pretty impressive in the regular season. But in the playoffs? Gadzooks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, oblong said: Oh, geez, it is a 7 game binge, not 6. I forgot the first round was a series, not just a game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, oblong said: The goal is to make as much money as possible while giving the bare minimum lip service to the competition aspect of it. Well, I think those priorities are backwards, but that’s just my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 (edited) 19 minutes ago, oblong said: The goal is to make as much money as possible while giving the bare minimum lip service to the competition aspect of it. Bingo. But we shouldn't take that particularly hard. Professional sports has always been an entertainment business, and as an entertainment business the idea is to make money. The world tried to have an amateur sports institution with the Olympic movement, but the model ended up unsustainable, much like NCAA football and basketball as amateur endeavors are proving unsustainable. I think if you want sport purely for the sake of sport head down to your local tavern for a game of darts. Edited October 17, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 The funny thing is that players get recognized for what they do in the regular season while teams get recognized for what they do in post-season. It is a strange disconnect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lordstanley Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: LOL - I guess I'm like Lee, I don't really care about the playoffs if my team isn't in them, the interest is strictly academic in terms of how you organize them. It goes back to what the league's objectives are in the end. You can play an unbiased tournament and just decide you are OK with that being what it is, that it will have next to nothing to do with determined the season's best team despite what the Media guys try to hype it into. Or you can try to devise that tourney what seeds teams to reward regular season performance. When all is said and done the latter may be a fool's errand, baseball just has too many randomizing inputs in a game for any reasonable length playoff format to actually determine a 'better' team with any regularity. So to me, that all adds up that the fair thing would be for there to be some greater rewards for your regular season performance separate from a ticket to a tournament that has no real value for determining anything about its entries. Maybe institute weighted scheduling like the NFL but the other way to reward good teams? Or just a pot of money for the players? Whatever. AL team with best 154-game regular season record is awarded the American League pennant as “AL champion” NL team with best 154-game regular season record is awarded National League pennant as “NL champion” Playoffs mini-season to set up World Series matchup, as follows: - Top 8 teams in AL make playoffs, so do top 8 in NL. Divisions abolished. - Playoff standings start with top 2 teams in each league tied for their league’s playoff standings lead, next 2 placed 1 game behind, next 2 another game behind, bottom 2 another game behind - Each playoff team plays seven 3-game series in the first 3 weeks of October, one against every other playoff team in their league. Higher ranked teams get the extra home series. Games almost every day. Mix of national or local TV coverag - Team atop the AL playoff standings at end of 21-game playoff season is the AL representative (not the AL “pennant winner” or “AL champion”) for World Series. Same in NL. Best of 7 World Series. Edited October 17, 2023 by lordstanley 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, lordstanley said: AL team with best 154-game regular season record is awarded the American League pennant as “AL champion” NL team with best 154-game regular season record is awarded National League pennant as “NL champion” Playoffs mini-season to set up World Series matchup, as follows: - Top 8 teams in AL make playoffs, so do top 8 in NL. Divisions abolished. - Playoff standings start with top 2 teams in each league tied for their league’s playoff standings lead, next 2 placed 1 game behind, next 2 another game behind, bottom 2 another game behind - Each playoff team plays seven 3-game series in the first 3 weeks of October, one against every other playoff team in their league. Higher ranked teams get the extra home series. Games almost every day. Mix of national or local TV coverag - Team atop the AL playoff standings at end of 21-game playoff season is the AL representative (not the AL “pennant winner” or “AL champion”) for World Series. Same in NL. Best of 7 World Series. not too bad. Or how about you play the 154, then the top AL and NL team immediately play the traditional 7 game World Series. Then the top 12-16 teams (which includes your WS participants) feed into an international tournament with Korean, Japanese and Latin American league leaders. Each year you have WS winner and World Tournament Winner. That gives you the US world series for just the two best US teams and you get a huge tournament with an international audience and more importantly, world wide broadcast $$. Sounds like a win/win to me. The WS can claim to determine the best US team. The international tourney makes even more money for its participants. You can give Latin players from non-playoff teams the option of playing for their home teams if you want to make it more competitive but even without that you'll still get a lot of upsets in short series. Edited October 17, 2023 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biff Mayhem Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 15 hours ago, oblong said: and haven’t we seen enough of ARod and Jeter and Papi? I was thinking the same thing last night. They are there as decorations. Perhaps A-Rod should be there because he does present well and seems pretty knowledgeable. They should ask him to not visit the tanning booth quite as much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 21 minutes ago, Biff Mayhem said: I was thinking the same thing last night. They are there as decorations. Perhaps A-Rod should be there because he does present well and seems pretty knowledgeable. They should ask him to not visit the tanning booth quite as much. I just avoid the pre and post game shows. But along the lines of the broadcasts, is it just me or does the return from commercial to live action seem to be much tighter now than before? There used to be, I don't know, 20 or 30 seconds of live shot and conversation filler from the broadcast team before the first pitch of the half inning. It seems to me like a lot of returns right into the first pitch this postseason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 10 hours ago, Tiger337 said: The funny thing is that players get recognized for what they do in the regular season while teams get recognized for what they do in post-season. It is a strange disconnect. Good observation ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 35 minutes ago, casimir said: I just avoid the pre and post game shows. But along the lines of the broadcasts, is it just me or does the return from commercial to live action seem to be much tighter now than before? There used to be, I don't know, 20 or 30 seconds of live shot and conversation filler from the broadcast team before the first pitch of the half inning. It seems to me like a lot of returns right into the first pitch this postseason. Probably due to the games being tighter now with enforcement of the pitch clock. TV still needs their commercial times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 2 hours ago, Biff Mayhem said: I was thinking the same thing last night. They are there as decorations. Perhaps A-Rod should be there because he does present well and seems pretty knowledgeable. They should ask him to not visit the tanning booth quite as much. I agree that Rodriguez is surprisingly knowledgable for someone who is a douche. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 9 hours ago, lordstanley said: AL team with best 154-game regular season record is awarded the American League pennant as “AL champion” NL team with best 154-game regular season record is awarded National League pennant as “NL champion” Playoffs mini-season to set up World Series matchup, as follows: - Top 8 teams in AL make playoffs, so do top 8 in NL. Divisions abolished. - Playoff standings start with top 2 teams in each league tied for their league’s playoff standings lead, next 2 placed 1 game behind, next 2 another game behind, bottom 2 another game behind - Each playoff team plays seven 3-game series in the first 3 weeks of October, one against every other playoff team in their league. Higher ranked teams get the extra home series. Games almost every day. Mix of national or local TV coverag - Team atop the AL playoff standings at end of 21-game playoff season is the AL representative (not the AL “pennant winner” or “AL champion”) for World Series. Same in NL. Best of 7 World Series. Yeah, I'd like it better if they rewarded the regular season winners in a meaningful way. Winning the 6-month marathon should be a big deal. Then they can do whatever they want with the playoffs. I do like the idea of a mini-season rather than a bunch of short series. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Would the NL and AL Champ designations be as meaningful as all of those NHL Western Conference Regular season chamionship banners we see at Little Ceasar's arena? Fans look at those with almost disgust as the lack of a corresponding SCF banner indicates a disappointing end to the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 1 hour ago, oblong said: Would the NL and AL Champ designations be as meaningful as all of those NHL Western Conference Regular season chamionship banners we see at Little Ceasar's arena? Fans look at those with almost disgust as the lack of a corresponding SCF banner indicates a disappointing end to the season. That is because fans have been conditioned to believe that winning the playoffs is all that matters. If more emphasis was put on the regular season championship, it would gain more respect. Of course, the problem with that is that TV would make less money off the playoffs if they were not viewed as the end all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 37 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: That is because fans have been conditioned to believe that winning the playoffs is all that matters. If more emphasis was put on the regular season championship, it would gain more respect. Of course, the problem with that is that TV would make less money off the playoffs if they were not viewed as the end all. But you can't change what fans think. That's putting the toothpaste back in the tube. Teams come to spring training with a stated goal to win the world series, not win the most games in the regular season. Every professional sport is like that. Nobody involved in the sport, from players, owners, TV execs, or most fans, would prefer it that way. That would be boring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 23 minutes ago, oblong said: But you can't change what fans think. That's putting the toothpaste back in the tube. Teams come to spring training with a stated goal to win the world series, not win the most games in the regular season. Every professional sport is like that. Nobody involved in the sport, from players, owners, TV execs, or most fans, would prefer it that way. That would be boring. I guess that's where I differ from most fans. I don't think the regular season is boring at all. In fact, I think the regular season is more interesting than the playoffs. They are really two distinct things. The regular season shows which team is able to endure the ebb and flow of the 6 month marathon. The playoffs is the best teams of the regular season during brief snap shots of time. I don't really see the connection between the two. The playoffs are fun if you have a rooting interest, but I think it would be underwhelming if the Tigers finally won the World Series after 40 years as the lowest seeded team with 84 wins. It would be fun in the moment, but it would be hard to look back at the season later with any pride. I want them to dominate the season and then win the playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casimir Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Vuvuzela vendors outside the Philly ballpark just might have the retirement plan in front of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 On 10/17/2023 at 12:35 PM, Tiger337 said: That is because fans have been conditioned to believe that winning the playoffs is all that matters. If more emphasis was put on the regular season championship, it would gain more respect. Of course, the problem with that is that TV would make less money off the playoffs if they were not viewed as the end all. It's a symbiotic thing: the fans treat the World Series as the main thing that matters, and the media promote the World Series as the main thing that matters. It's not that one is to blame for the other. They each spring organically from perception and incentives, and they feed each other equally. But in any event, it is the reason the best record in the regular season is considered practically meaningless without corresponding postseason success. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 Postseason counting stats are dumb. It’s always someone within the last 14 years now. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.