gehringer_2 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said: In Germany it is up 7.4% year-to-date, 5.1% in Australia, and a staggering 12/3% in Brazil. So while the economic stimulus pushed up inflation here in the US a small percent, you're seeing globally, that inflation is a problem for many countries. the pandemic drove all the monetary policy manager's around the world to pretty much the same lock step conclusion - expansive money supply was needed to prevent the pandemic from also creating depression. They all looked at the same situation with the same kind of knowledge base and made the same decisions. They over shot, so sure you can fault them, but I'm not going to be super hard on them. They know how to put this Genie back in the bottle and the other scenario could have been a lot worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.TaterSalad Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 51 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: the pandemic drove all the monetary policy manager's around the world to pretty much the same lock step conclusion - expansive money supply was needed to prevent the pandemic from also creating depression. They all looked at the same situation with the same kind of knowledge base and made the same decisions. They over shot, so sure you can fault them, but I'm not going to be super hard on them. They know how to put this Genie back in the bottle and the other scenario could have been a lot worse. Inflation is the genie going back into its bottle. Along the lines of what E already asked earlier. Do you think if we had a progressive President like Bernie or Warren, alongside a truly progressive Congress, and they enacted federal price controls on individual goods, services, and industries, does that make things better or worse than they are now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewsieg Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 4 hours ago, chasfh said: So to be clear, are you hoping it is a one-off situation and that other major retailers are not going to drop their prices in response to a self-imposed inventory glut? You prefer prices to be kept higher and inventory be kept tight? Am I understanding you right here? I'm hoping it was more of an incorrect mgmt decision to buy too much leading to this issue rather than the first indication that everyone in the US has stopped spending on Target type items. I would prefer to roll through this inflationary period without drastic corrections which could just cause different issues. If everyone has stopped spending and Target is just the first to notice it, I fear it's going to be a rough few years. (Also note a rough few economic years means we get President Trump again). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, ewsieg said: I'm hoping it was more of an incorrect mgmt decision to buy too much leading to this issue rather than the first indication that everyone in the US has stopped spending on Target type items. I would prefer to roll through this inflationary period without drastic corrections which could just cause different issues. If everyone has stopped spending and Target is just the first to notice it, I fear it's going to be a rough few years. (Also note a rough few economic years means we get President Trump again). the funny thing with inflation is that one of the ways it can be self-accelerating is that people want to buy more because they figure out that their money is devaluing faster than what they buy with it. So there is some kind of transition between the initial resistance to purchase because prices are high, to a reluctance to hold cash. The psychology depends on whether people expect the inflation to last or not, ie. whether they expect prices to fall again. My guess is that most people understand at some level that this inflation is a transient dislocation created by governments trying to respond to the pandemic and not the kind of structural money supply imbalance we had in the 70's. So to some degree, in the present case, if people expect this end, they won't spend, and it will end sooner. The one area which is pretty detached from reality now though is home prices. They are not being driven by supply issues in China - they are just crazy. People trying to get in before mortgage rates go up is part of it, but it's still nuts. Edited June 8, 2022 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted July 5, 2022 Author Share Posted July 5, 2022 Could we be getting some good news on this front? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted July 5, 2022 Author Share Posted July 5, 2022 Here's another article I came across today suggesting we may have peaked on the inflation front. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/shortages-have-led-to-gluts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 2 hours ago, chasfh said: Here's another article I came across today suggesting we may have peaked on the inflation front. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/shortages-have-led-to-gluts Gas was under $5 in Alaska today! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted July 6, 2022 Author Share Posted July 6, 2022 3 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: Gas was under $5 in Alaska today! And we can’t even get it under $6 here in the city! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 Oil was down 9% today and is now under $100. Things may be happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 12 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Oil was down 9% today and is now under $100. Things may be happening. I have a hard time seeing this inflation having any legs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleterious Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 All signs point to a recession so it makes sense commodity prices are dropping. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted July 6, 2022 Author Share Posted July 6, 2022 Retail store stocks won’t be helped by it. But reduced inflation might back up the Fed and spur markets a bit. That’s one hope, anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted July 15, 2022 Author Share Posted July 15, 2022 I don't know about other countries experiencing high inflation, but here, consumer spending is still strong. In most eras of high inflation, reduced consumer spending due to higher prices helps moderate those prices as more businesses have to cut prices to attract sales. But this time around, consumer sentiment is still strong even as inflation races upward, and I wonder whether that is related to all the pent-up demand to spend and experience things in the newly "post-COVID" world. (I know COVID isn't gone, but consumers are spending like it is.) So until that pent-up demand recedes for whatever reason, I gotta believe we will continue to see monthly reports pointing to more or less 10% inflation. 1 big thing: The powerhouse consumer Illustration: Gabriella Turrisi/Axios For all the talk about a recession, the consumer — the bedrock of the economy — appears to be holding strong. Such is the great weirdness of the U.S. economy right now: Americans' spending behavior, as spelled out in today's solid retail sales report, screams, "No recession here!" Meanwhile, consumer sentiment has actually ticked up so far this month, according to a preliminary reading from the University of Michigan, though it remains low by historical standards. Why it matters: High gas prices might be making people miserable, but consumer demand is holding up even as the Federal Reserve acts to bring down inflation. Details: The retail sales data shows a broad advance in spending, rising 1% in June, more than the 0.8% analysts had expected. The figure reflects higher prices — but even excluding gas stations, sales were up 0.7%. Through the first six months of the year, electronics and appliances is the only category that's seen a decline in spending from 2021. But that's mostly a function of Americans pulling back on goods that they already stocked up on early in the pandemic. The new number is consistent with overall consumption spending continuing to rise in the second quarter, which would lower the odds of a second straight quarter of shrinking GDP. What they're saying: "Spending was broad based and not just boosted by more money spent on gasoline," said Jeffery Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, in a note. "Given this report, the U.S. may actually post positive growth figures for Q2 and avoid two consecutive quarters of negative growth." Between the lines: Normally, this would be stellar news in an economy where consumer spending makes up two-thirds of activity. But in this topsy-turvy environment, the Fed wants to see consumer demand slow enough to temper inflation. The report shows solid demand, yet it might not be strong enough to tip the committee in favor of an ultra-big full-percentage point interest rate hike, particularly given another reading out this morning that we discuss below. The bottom line: There are plenty of risks ahead, but American consumers are chugging along for now, which could keep overall growth in positive territory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted July 15, 2022 Share Posted July 15, 2022 Shush... Republicans don't want anyone to know that this is the true cause of the current strength of inflation, not "IT's ALL the DEMOCRATS FAULT!!!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smr-nj Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Btw… just stopped for gasoline. $4.09/gal. Steadily coming down here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 must be Biden's policies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 I walked by the TV with Fox News on, because my so insists on it being on all the time, and the chyron said "WH trying to take credit for falling gas prices" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pfife Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 It's crazy b/c it's both totally believable and totally unbelievable at the same time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted July 19, 2022 Author Share Posted July 19, 2022 20 hours ago, smr-nj said: Btw… just stopped for gasoline. $4.09/gal. Steadily coming down here. It’s finally under $7 for premium here in the city. Progress! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 23 hours ago, pfife said: must be Biden's policies It's not, but it wasn't his policies which caused inflation either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMRivdogs Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 Unemployment is at 3.5%. Way to go Brandon... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 27, 2022 Author Share Posted October 27, 2022 Great. Just in time to hand it all over to the Republicans so they can claim credit, then crash it again and blame Democrats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, chasfh said: Great. Just in time to hand it all over to the Republicans so they can claim credit, then crash it again and blame Democrats. That happened in 1992 by the way 🙂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted October 27, 2022 Author Share Posted October 27, 2022 4 hours ago, oblong said: That happened in 1992 by the way 🙂 Leading to the Contract on America ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted February 17, 2023 Author Share Posted February 17, 2023 I see one line item on the left that could be restructured to make up that deficit in a hurry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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