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The Gaza War


gehringer_2

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12 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

You're even trying to bring in "an argument to be made that Israel should drop hydrogen bombs to limit civilian and military casualties?"... atomic bombs... seriously?

The "most closely resembles" matches are a sneak attack with a certain number of casualties in the low 1,000's. A major war effort follows, with nothing but "unconditional surrender of the enemy" as the goal. These two match Dec. 7th and Oct. 7th. A disproportional response. Match. A large number of civilian casualties disproportional to the original sneak attack casualties (and despite Tater's efforts to list 20,000+ casualties as a top end acceptable number... the CURRENT 18,000 includes around 8,000 Hamas terrorists, not just civilians only (since Hamas refuses to delineate between the two as it is a propaganda victory using the higher number... even though the higher number DOES include a significant number of militants deaths...)). Match. Efforts to reduce civilian casualties. Match. (Even with G2's point that the atomic bombs were to reduce US military casualties estimated to be around 5 mill to conquer the Japanese main islands... I'm stealing this one). But I'll go to my earlier point which is, civilian casualties are NOT the main concern. Match for both. Elimination of the enemy threat IS the Primary Goal. Match.

And even though different methods were used - Israel is NOT going to use an atomic bomb... they would basically be bombing THEMSELVES... and they are not that stupid - this alone does not say that these too are so dissimilar that the comparison is "not apt".

IMO: quit searching for an "exact match". That just does not exist.

 

Yes, I did raise the question of Israel dropping the bomb.  It would obviously be an aspect of an apt comparison.  I'm not in agreement that the comparison is apt so I'm inquiring about that undeniable aspect of the PH response to those that think the PH response is apt comparison. 

If it's the case that the central rationale behind the PH response (dropping the atomic bomb) isn't applicable to the Oct 7 situation then  it seems like the comparison isn't a good one and is not informative to the current situation.

Edited by pfife
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1 minute ago, pfife said:

Others stated the comparison was apt (it was literally stated that it was apt - that was the word used). I'm arguing the comparison not apt and presented multiple reasons why it is not apt. 

I still think you're searching for an exact match by using "not apt".

IMO...

It is "apt" meaning they most closely resemble each other.

But "not apt" means they do not closely resemble each other (they do) and the way that you are using it is "demanding" an exact match. Not that you are "demanding" anything... I'm just sayin'...

I'm looking at this from a "similarity" versus "difference" perspective.

Similar: Dec 7th and Oct 7th were sneak attacks.

Difference: Dec 7th was militarily strategic, even if the strategy ultimately failed... and Oct 7th was pure butchery against a civilian population, with almost no attacks against the military of the same population.

Similar: Number of casualties: Dec 7th ~2.4K; Oct. 7th ~ ~1.2K

Similar: Disproportionate response

Similar: Civilian casualties from the response vastly outnumber the original casualties from the sneak attacks. Dec 7th: 500K to 1M versus 2.4K. Oct 7th 10K+ and counting versus 1.2K.

Difference: Dec 7th led finally to using atomic bombs to end the war. Oct 7th - no possible way. But as to how it actually ends... ???

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5 minutes ago, pfife said:

Yes, I did raise the question of Israel dropping the bomb.  It would obviously be an aspect of an apt comparison.  I'm not in agreement that the comparison is apt so I'm inquiring about that undeniable aspect of the PH response to those that think the PH response is apt comparison. 

If it's the case that the central rationale behind the PH response (dropping the atomic bomb) isn't applicable to the Oct 7 situation then  it seems like the comparison isn't a good one and is not informative to the current situation.

Why does Israel have to drop an atomic bomb in order for the comparison to be apt?

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2 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

I still think you're searching for an exact match by using "not apt".

IMO...

It is "apt" meaning they most closely resemble each other.

But "not apt" means they do not closely resemble each other (they do) and the way that you are using it is "demanding" an exact match. Not that you are "demanding" anything... I'm just sayin'...

I'm looking at this from a "similarity" versus "difference" perspective.

Similar: Dec 7th and Oct 7th were sneak attacks.

Difference: Dec 7th was militarily strategic, even if the strategy ultimately failed... and Oct 7th was pure butchery against a civilian population, with almost no attacks against the military of the same population.

Similar: Number of casualties: Dec 7th ~2.4K; Oct. 7th ~ ~1.2K

Similar: Disproportionate response

Similar: Civilian casualties from the response vastly outnumber the original casualties from the sneak attacks. Dec 7th: 500K to 1M versus 2.4K. Oct 7th 10K+ and counting versus 1.2K.

Difference: Dec 7th led finally to using atomic bombs to end the war. Oct 7th - no possible way. But as to how it actually ends... ???

With all due respect, I have done no searching whatsoever for an exact match.   I've only responded to two comparisons (9/11 and Pear Harbor) that other posters searched for, raised in the conversation, and began to flesh out.    I do not see either as an apt parallel and have presented reasons why - in other words, continued fleshing out the comparisons just as you and others were and continue doing, including in the very post quoted above where you do so repeatedly.

I get that you disagree with my reasons for declaring them not apt.   That doesn't mean I'm searching for an exact match, I'm doing the exact same thing you are, fleshing out the comparison.

If one is attempting to draw conclusions about the current war based on an apt comparison to Pearl Harbor, which is what we are trying to do, then it's incumbent upon the comparer to defend the aptness of the comparison to challenges to the comparison.   Which you are doing.  

So what's the problem?

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12 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Why does Israel have to drop an atomic bomb in order for the comparison to be apt?

Because that was a central event that happened in the response to Pearl Harbor that you said was an apt comparison.

Edited by pfife
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4 hours ago, pfife said:

Sorry I'll just agree with you next time, obviously my mistake. 

a-bombs aren't really important part of WW2 anyways so I apologize there too 

I would say only this with respect to the Bomb and this discussion: It didn't exist when the US decided to pursue total war against Japan, thus it was not part of the calculation in answer the question on Dec 8th 1941, "What is our response to Japan going to be today." I think you can go back to the age old dichotomy between strategy and tactics. To me the parallel between the US in '41 and Israel now is the strategic decision to pursue Hamas to it destruction, and that parallels the US decision to pursue the elimination of the Imperial regime in Japan, and I would argue the reasons in both cases follow from fairly similar logic. The tactical issues of weapons and acceptable conduct of in pursuit of the overall strategy will not necessarily be particularly similar as the two cases are in vastly different place and time and in particular Israel is operating under more international (and US) constraint than the US did in WWII. That's just a reality that I certainly don't question.

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13 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I would say only this with respect to the Bomb and this discussion: It didn't exist when the US decided to pursue total war against Japan, thus it was not part of the calculation in answer the question on Dec 8th 1941, "What is our response to Japan going to be today." I think you can go back to the age old dichotomy between strategy and tactics. To me the parallel between the US in '41 and Israel now is the strategic decision to pursue Hamas to it destruction, and that parallels the US decision to pursue the elimination of the Imperial regime in Japan, and I would argue the reasons in both cases follow from fairly similar logic. The tactical issues of weapons and acceptable conduct of in pursuit of the overall strategy will not necessarily be particularly similar as the two cases are in vastly different place and time and in particular Israel is operating under more international (and US) constraint than the US did in WWII. That's just a reality that I certainly don't question.

Sold. 

I think the issue for me is/was that the context of all of the comparisons was to take the event (9/11, Pearl Harbor are the ones I addressed), examine the responses in terms of civilian casualties, and then see how those numbers/rates/whatever compare to Israel's response to Oct 7, in order to make some sort of empirical determination in a historical context whether they were proportionate.   In picking events in order to do this, the one where we dropped the A-Bomb, the only time it's ever happened, is obviously a skewed approach to take.

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On 12/13/2023 at 10:03 AM, Motown Bombers said:

I just can't imagine if a bunch of Canadians parachuted into Lollapalooza and raped and beheaded thousands of people, pillaged the southside of Chicago burning people out of their homes, parading their corpses in the streets, and took a couple hundred hostages back to Canada that people wouldn't be demanding the US go into Canada and smoke all these terrorists out of whatever hole they are hiding in. 

And, bonus, a bunch of civilians with them.

 

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23 hours ago, pfife said:

Side question, G2 you mentioned Oppenheimer movie - what were your thoughts on it?   
 

I wouldn't consider myself someone who was looking at it from a perspective of historical accuracy, I was looking more to be entertained by the historical story, and I loved the movie.   It's one of the best I've seen I think.  

I enjoyed it. Like all Nolan movies, keeping track of the time lines is a bit of wild goose chase, but that is Nolan's thing. But it is always a little odd watching 'historical' films of events or people or events you have direct memories of however. I'm not old enough to remember WWII(!) but some of those people were still around in my own memory. For instance I'd seen a lot of Edward Teller and some about Isador Rabi when they were still around so that forces you out of 'suspension of disbelief' a little more often than for other kinds of films. I'm also curious about whether the conversation with Einstein was based in fact or was dramatic interpolation. I suppose I could look it up - guess I'm not *that* curious!

Edited by gehringer_2
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  • 2 weeks later...

So I have been thinking on this and it’s time the US and other nation begin to call on Israel to change tactics.   What they are doing now is not working will never work. Hamas doesn’t give a **** if Palestinians dies. In fact they like it because it emboldens them.  Israel had the right to retaliate and defend itself but if they haven’t been able to achieve their objective by now then do something else. Hamas is not a normal ruling government. 

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Israeli POV: The most significant amount of Hamas leadership is in Khan Younis. Several Israeli (IDF) deaths attempting to root out Hamas' terrorist networks/ Command & Control (including planning leadership & center for Oct 7th)/ Hamas fighters in Khan Younis. Toughest fight yet for Israel in this war.

They are not going to stop until they rout the Hamas' forces in Khan Younis. Doesn't say anything on what they gain by that... Sinwar supposedly is in Khan Younis, but he could still slip out uncaught even with IDF forces surrounding the city, I'm guessing, through their tunnel systems.

Reportedly... the general Gazan population is enraged at Hamas for putting them in this crisis, caused by Hamas' Oct. 7th actions.

Hamas has become more popular with West Bank Palestinians...

But not Gazans.

Also, Israel is not going to change tactics. Especially now... after the UN has decided that they are going to do whatever they need to do to get more humanitarian aid into Gaza. And NOT make any concerted effort to stop Israeli actions (language pushed by the US and accepted in order to get a UN agreement). And Israel is going full speed ahead in trying to dismantle Sinwar and Hamas and whoever they can kill or capture in Khan Younis.

Just my 2 cents...

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Netanyahu outlines 3 Prerequisites to end the war:

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4376720-netanyahu-outlines-three-prerequisites-for-peace-in-op-ed/

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wrote an op-ed Monday outlining three prerequisites for peace in the region: the destruction of Hamas, the demilitarization of Gaza and the beginning of a deradicalization process of Palestinian society.

The last two are "Musts", the 1st one - destruction of Hamas - is probably unattainable. However, Israel is going to do its best to degrade Hamas to the point of being irrelevant. To whatever degree they can do that.

Wall Street Journal if you want the original and not a summary by the Hill and have a WSJ subscription:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/benjamin-netanyahu-our-three-prerequisites-for-peace-gaza-israel-bff895bd

Edited by 1984Echoes
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  • 2 weeks later...

From the WSJ this morning:

At least 103 people were killed in explosions in Iran near a public ceremony commemorating the death of a senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officer killed by an American airstrike in 2020, the country’s state media reported. Iranian officials said the blasts were the work of terrorists.

At least 170 others were wounded by the blasts, which took place as crowds gathered near the tomb of Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, according to Iran’s government-run Islamic Republic News Agency. Iran said it was investigating the cause of the explosions.

 


 

 

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30 minutes ago, 1776 said:

From the WSJ this morning:

At least 103 people were killed in explosions in Iran near a public ceremony commemorating the death of a senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officer killed by an American airstrike in 2020, the country’s state media reported. Iranian officials said the blasts were the work of terrorists.

At least 170 others were wounded by the blasts, which took place as crowds gathered near the tomb of Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, according to Iran’s government-run Islamic Republic News Agency. Iran said it was investigating the cause of the explosions.

Bag bombs. Sort of indiscriminant to be Mossad, but maybe internal opposition with Mossad's help.

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On 1/3/2024 at 2:56 PM, 1984Echoes said:

Or Sunni terrorists.

Would not be beyond them in this current wartime condition to take advantage and attack the Shia.

ISIS just claimed responsibility. Sunni terrorists...

It's happened several times before in Iran so... not a bad guess...

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