The Gaza War

[gehringer_2]

29 minutes ago, 1776 said:

I would imagine there are a fair number of Iranians sleeping with their lights on right about now. 

Of course Iran also opened itself to a counter attack by Israel that could be devastating. They apparently are banking on the US persuading Israel that it's the actual result -  'no harm, no foul' and not the brazenness of the attack - which is straight up grounds for an Israeli declaration of War under old style rules, that should be controlling. For their sake I hope they aren't overestimating the level of influence we have left with the Netanyahu government. 

If Israel does counter attack, I expect it will be an attempt to decapitate the regime, which would get really interesting if it succeeded.(by which I mean total chaos)

Edited April 15, 2024 by gehringer_2

[1776]

This situation could go in so many directions at this point. Biden has communicated to BiBi that the US will not be a part of the response to Iran, whatever Israel decides. He did say our support otherwise is “ironclad.” That is all BiBi would have hoped for anyway. 
Iran notified its Arab neighbors of the planned attack. Accounting for the surrounding Arab countries, they remained neutral. That’s a big plus in hindsight. 
So if I’m BiBi, I’m wondering how far I can go with Iran before the neighbors get upset enough to act. Where is the ‘red line’ in this case. Tehran is the most outspoken regarding the elimination of the Jewish state, for years. Iran has played the proxy game for a long time. By attacking Israel directly, they have now subjected themselves to a no holds barred response. Israel has already made it clear that they will “exact a price” for the attack. 
So now I think, what could/would be Israel’s objective(s) in a retaliation. One of the first things that comes to mind is Iran’s nuclear production. I would guess Mossad probably has a very good idea of the state of their program at this point. They know enough about locations and status to make a very informed decision if that’s an option they’re considering. Would Israel make that a target/objective in retaliating? As far as the surrounding Arab neighbors, what objection would they voice? Without publicly broadcasting it, they realize Iran is the pariah in the region. 

I also have a hard time finding the logic in Iran’s attack on Israel. My impression after reading the accounts of the attack are, is Iran really that pathetic? Israel knew the attack was coming in advance, as did just about everybody else that follows any kind of news source. Tehran accomplished nothing, with the exception of green lighting Israel’s unrestrained response.  
So I’ve gone a step further and wondered, was the attack a sucker punch? Is there more to it that Iran is showing? They know they lit the fuse. How far will it go now? 
And, if Syria for instance, decides they want to be involved, where does it go from there? 
Very interesting times we live in.

[1776]

Israeli officials said the coordinated air-defense–the U.K., France and Arab neighbors Jordan and Saudi Arabia also joined the operation–demonstrated that the country could overcome diplomatic isolation over Israel’s conduct of the war in Gaza and focus attention on Israel’s archrival Iran and its role in backing proxies in the Middle East. The Group of 7 began discussing imposing more sanctions on Iran over its drone and missile programs.
 

-WSJ

[gehringer_2]

54 minutes ago, 1776 said:

also have a hard time finding the logic in Iran’s attack on Israel. My impression after reading the accounts of the attack are, is Iran really that pathetic? Israel knew the attack was coming in advance, as did just about everybody else that follows any kind of news source. Tehran accomplished nothing, with the exception of green lighting Israel’s unrestrained response.  
So I’ve gone a step further and wondered, was the attack a sucker punch? Is there more to it that Iran is showing? They know they lit the fuse. How far will it go now? 
And, if Syria for instance, decides they want to be involved, where does it go from there? 
Very interesting times we live in

I think the attack was formulated to be the most massive thing they could advertise for internal consumption that would still give them some hope of not engendering a coordinated retaliation. But they are playing a very dangerous game assuming that this isn't exactly what Bibi needs to justify what he has wanted to do all along, which is to try to bring down the Iranian regime. Nuclear facilities are an obvious target but also very hardened. As noted my guess is that unless the US talks Israel out of it, what is going to happen is that nothing will happen as Israel bides it time until the Iranian leadership drops its guard enough to be in one place and that is what Israel will go after. They'll go for Khamenie and IRG leadership and hope it initiates a chain reaction collapse of the IRR. I think that will fail, but I still think that is Bibi's likely game plan. 

Edited April 15, 2024 by gehringer_2

[romad1]

The planners in the PRC PLA will be burning the midnight oil thinking about how this went down.  We might have revealed some things in the blanketed, multi-layered defense that they will be trying to overcome.   Hopefully we retain capabilities and they (more importantly Xi) are second guessing theirs.

[Motown Bombers]

The DNC is going to be a disaster with these Hamasholes and leftist mayor. 

 

[pfife]

imagine losing a pr battle to people doing that

lol

[Motown Bombers]

Chicago even passed a ceasefire resolution. I thought was going to solve everything. Apparently the US murder capital has nothing more important than useless resolutions on international affairs. 

[1776]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

Chicago even passed a ceasefire resolution. I thought was going to solve everything. Apparently the US murder capital has nothing more important than useless resolutions on international affairs. 

Was the Chicago ceasefire resolution for Chicago or Gaza? Sorry, I couldn’t resist.

Edited April 15, 2024 by 1776

[Motown Bombers]

Thread

 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[oblong]

**** these people. 
 

 I go to Starbucks every Saturday morning here in Dearborn and it these Jack offs try it here I’m going to be in a viral video. 

[Motown Bombers]

I don’t even know what their cause is supposed to be anymore. 

[chasfh]

lol kids with cameras yelling is domestic terrorism

[chasfh]

9 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

I don’t even know what their cause is supposed to be anymore. 

They’re kids acting out trying on political activism for size. They’ll be parents living in the suburbs and working for F500 companies within ten years.

[pfife]

15 minutes ago, chasfh said:

lol kids with cameras yelling is domestic terrorism

maybe one day the Gaza War thread will be about the Gaza War again

[oblong]

that's not a "kid".  There's noise ordinances and standards indoors.  They are just being rude assholes.  I hope they get food poisoning.  It's the worst kind of protesting... the safe, "nobody will hurt me here, I'm just showing off how good and moral I am compared to you" kind.  They are no different than evangelicans who pretend they are better than the rest of us because they don't drink or smoke.

Their goal isnt activism but to show off their alleged virtue.  

[Motown Bombers]

I cannot imagine if a bunch of redhats tried to shut down O'Hare that Chas would just call them a bunch of kids who will be parents in 10 years.

[Motown Bombers]

4 minutes ago, oblong said:

that's not a "kid".  There's noise ordinances and standards indoors.  They are just being rude assholes.  I hope they get food poisoning.  It's the worst kind of protesting... the safe, "nobody will hurt me here, I'm just showing off how good and moral I am compared to you" kind.  They are no different than evangelicans who pretend they are better than the rest of us because they don't drink or smoke.

Their goal isnt activism but to show off their alleged virtue.  

They're literally targeting any business that has any sort of Jew connection. They protest Jewish hospitals. There isn't even a Starbucks in Israel. 

[pfife]

I usually just ignore all of them

I've spend many years in downtown Ann Arbor and there's always protesting going on there

[Motown Bombers]

How are these Hamasholes any different than those freedom trucker jagoffs? 

[oblong]

I don't get the logic... so if I am sitting there in Starbucks enjoying a quiet cup of coffee and being productive at my job and maybe helping some people with something, a few people dressed up on cosplay come in and start yelling about something thousands of miles away... that means what?  If I stand up and yell "Free Palestine" then sit back down is my conscience clear then?  Did I do my job as a good citizen? Is that like taking a communion wafer in church?  

 

[oblong]

3 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

How are these Hamasholes any different than those freedom trucker jagoffs? 

They are not.

[pfife]

One difference is that the Gaza protesters garner hundreds more posts here than the truckers. 

[Motown Bombers]

I was in college when the US invaded Iraq. I was anti war and anti Bush. I never played in traffic, targeted businesses based on the ethnicity of the owner, or threatened to kill elected officials. I got a bumper sticker, told the Army recruiters on campus to **** off, and voted for John Kerry.