gehringer_2 Posted July 30 Author Share Posted July 30 (edited) 4 minutes ago, 1776 said: Israel is not in a good place right now. Hezbollah is becoming more active in the northern region around the Golan Heights. Harris will likely pull back the support the US has provided/voiced on the international stage. The UN has no love for Israel, none. I’m confident Harris will not be the ally Biden has been. She’s most likely to follow Obama’s playbook regarding Israel. Not good. One has to assume Netanyahu has gamed out his options and if Harris looks like the likely winner, he will probably make a deal on Gaza and the show up back in DC as a peacemaker the new Admin can love again. Edited July 30 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted July 31 Author Share Posted July 31 (edited) Reuters reporting that Ismail Heniyah has been killed in Tehran - presumably by some Israeli action.... https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-chief-ismail-haniyeh-killed-iran-hamas-says-statement-2024-07-31/ Iran is now probably going to try something noisy to restore its honor after failing to protect an esteemed guest. Edited July 31 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hongbit Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 3 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: Reuters reporting that Ismail Heniyah has been killed in Tehran - presumably by some Israeli action.... https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-chief-ismail-haniyeh-killed-iran-hamas-says-statement-2024-07-31/ I’m all for Israel defending themselves against terrorists but you can’t be running assassination operations in the middle of Tehran. That’s insanity. Are they trying to start WW3? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted July 31 Author Share Posted July 31 3 minutes ago, Hongbit said: I’m all for Israel defending themselves against terrorists but you can’t be running assassination operations in the middle of Tehran. That’s insanity. Are they trying to start WW3? Iran already started a shooting war with them via Hamas, whose ability to project force is 100% an Iranian project, so if you are Israel, when it comes to Iran, you'd ask "what escalation" with some justification. And as it relates to Iran, the beauty of being Israel is that Iran can't project much effective military power directly at Israel, if they want to make a statement, they have to do with some action like hitting Saudi oil tankers, which is then far more likely to draw a heavy US response. That's a win/win for Israel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtutiger Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 (edited) 13 hours ago, gehringer_2 said: One has to assume Netanyahu has gamed out his options and if Harris looks like the likely winner, he will probably make a deal on Gaza and the show up back in DC as a peacemaker the new Admin can love again. I don't know that it is clear what exactly Harris' Israel policy would be... Although one thing I do think is clear is that Israel's PM probably would be standing on firmer ground with the American public if he didn't spend the last 9 months poking it's greatest ally in the eye over and over again, while doing backdoor diplomacy with a former POTUS running for office once again. Israel isn't in a good spot here, but to a degree, its a spot they are in because of their own actions. They shouldn't be let off the hook for that when assessing the situation Edited July 31 by mtutiger 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigeraholic1 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 (edited) Another puke off the planet. #teamisrael Israel coming.... Edited July 31 by Tigeraholic1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted July 31 Author Share Posted July 31 2 hours ago, mtutiger said: Although one thing I do think is clear is that Israel's PM probably would be standing on firmer ground with the American public if he didn't spend the last 9 months poking it's greatest ally in the eye over and over again, while doing backdoor diplomacy with a former POTUS running for office once again. QFT. Still, I wouldn't underestimate Netanyahu's talent for playing US politics. And I think if you approach him the way Obama did, treating Israel a US client state or junior partner, you won't get anywhere, much like Obama didn't. Israeli leaders will turn off any US Prez who tries to tell them what we think they should think is best for them - it just feeds their belief that the US has the luxury of being dilettante in foreign policy while Israeli concerns are existential. I would agree with the premise that Netanyahu has been wrong - a lot. That he is captive to a religious right in Israel that is at least a screwed up as our own, but I think our approach with him during the Obama years was also counter productive. I think Biden has done better, but there was already a lot of bad blood to overcome between the Democratic FP establishment and the Israelis 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted July 31 Author Share Posted July 31 2 hours ago, Tigeraholic1 said: Another puke off the planet. #teamisrael Israel coming.... Interesting decision to execute what had to be a fairly high risk operation go after one someone who at least reportedly, was more a political than military guy. Or maybe the opportunity to really embarrass Iran was too much icing on that cake to pass up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigeraholic1 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 39 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: Interesting decision to execute what had to be a fairly high risk operation go after one someone who at least reportedly, was more a political than military guy. Or maybe the opportunity to really embarrass Iran was too much icing on that cake to pass up. You gotta take out all of Hamas to kill the plague. Iran is also showing how easy it is to penetrate whatever security they have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted July 31 Author Share Posted July 31 19 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said: You gotta take out all of Hamas to kill the plague. Iran is also showing how easy it is to penetrate whatever security they have. It's probably not hard to develop sources in a country where everyone hates the regime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben9753 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 1 hour ago, gehringer_2 said: Interesting decision to execute what had to be a fairly high risk operation go after one someone who at least reportedly, was more a political than military guy. Or maybe the opportunity to really embarrass Iran was too much icing on that cake to pass up. Was Bin Laden more political or military? 10/7 is Israel’s 9/11. Anyone involved will be hunted until they are taken out. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigeraholic1 Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 32 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: It's probably not hard to develop sources in a country where everyone hates the regime. Very true and a positive sign. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oblong Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted August 1 Author Share Posted August 1 Israel today also claiming confirmation that they got Deif earlier this month. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/01/israel-hamas-war-iran-haniyeh-hezbollah-news/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigeraholic1 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 42 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: Israel today also claiming confirmation that they got Deif earlier this month. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/01/israel-hamas-war-iran-haniyeh-hezbollah-news/ Taking them out one at a time. Gave himselfy J1 2025 deadline I bet, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasfh Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Essential viewing not about the war itself, although war adjacent. Spoiler alert: the West Bank is an apartheid state, supported by the usual suspects. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigeraholic1 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigeraholic1 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted August 3 Author Share Posted August 3 news out of Iran today that the Heniyah attack was a short range missile. Earlier reporting had been the room was rigged long in advance. No real reason to believe either account. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/03/iran-hamas-haniyeh-killing-israel/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigeraholic1 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motown Bombers Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigeraholic1 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Axis of evil ready to roll. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted August 5 Author Share Posted August 5 Shoigu's the cat with nine lives. No matter what he f's up, Vladdy still loves him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted August 6 Author Share Posted August 6 (edited) Just in case anyone thought Netanyahu was the only one who can double-down on stupid, Hamas just elevated Sinwar to run the show. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/08/06/world/israel-iran-hezbollah-gaza It's like you have two fanatical sides locked in a mutual death embrace. Netanyahu probably knew full well that if they killed Haniyah and Sinwar was still alive, Sinwar would emerge the leader and that would would make the militancy of his approach that much easier to sustain politically in Israel. Edited August 6 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1984Echoes Posted August 6 Share Posted August 6 If Israeli Intelligence forecasted Sinwar taking over for an eliminated Haniyah, major sharp prediction. Israel will literally be able to do what they want in Gaza. Sinwar is unacceptable to most of the rest of the world. I'm not saying Netanyahu is... just that Israel made a major move that worked perfectly in their favor. WTF is Hamas thinking? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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