Week Thirteen: Detroit Lions (8-3) @ New Orleans Saints (5-6)

[Jason_R]

28 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

Campbell Is right about turnovers.  That’s the difference.  

The offensive side is easily solved by the leagues most  up and down OL doing their jobs consistently.  Goff with time doesn’t make mistakes.  Goff under constant pressure is a train wreck.   That is all dependent on this line stepping up and playing to the level they are accustomed.   This team may not win another game if the OL can’t figure it out.  At the same time, they may win them all if the guys up front can get the dominance back.  

On defense,  they can’t sit around and wait for the other team to make a mistake.   They have to put them under pressure and force the issue.   They need to do a much better job of making the opposing offense uncomfortable and forcing them to work faster.  

 

Agree. But Sorsdal and Awosika are not accustomed to playing to any level. One of them will need to improve markedly or Jonah Jackson will have to return. 

[TP_Fan]

Unpacking the lions defense it’s obvious what needs to change: get more turnovers, tackle better and tighten up in the red zone.

Lions have forced only 12 turnovers, only the panthers, titans, rams and patriots have forced fewer.

The lions allow 68.6% of trips to the red zone to end in a touchdown, only the bears and panthers are worse.

Opposing teams have gotten 27 first downs by penalty against the lions, most in the league.

Lions have the 5th most missed tackles.

So here is where it gets surprising. The lions hurry percentage is 11%, which is actually tops in the NFL, but have only 23 sacks, which ranks near the bottom (26th).  They blitz at a middle of the pack rate.  The lions just can’t get home. Even getting the pressure they do it’s it causing turnovers or sacks. When they get an opportunity to make play they aren’t making it.  And then they take penalties to keep drives going for opposing teams.

I just don’t know that I expect anything to change. 

Edited November 28, 2023 by TP_Fan

[1984Echoes]

1 hour ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

... we could have used an upgrade in our secondary or defensive front but passed on doing so because we like what we have here apparently...

You're discounting whether other teams made players available (Danielle Hunter, Maxx Crosby and Patrick Surtain III were NOT available) or whether we wanted to spend the cost (a 1st rounder for Sweat in order to beat the Bears 2nd rounder) for a pending FA or whether a problem case (Chase Young) was even wanted here.

They made their decisions. 

I can live with those decisions and see what they have up their sleeve in the offseason to make further improvements. As stated by others, the Lions window is JUST OPENING, not at the end of their window in which you make last gasp efforts to continue the run...

The Ken Holland reference is not appropriate IMO.

 

 

Edited November 28, 2023 by 1984Echoes

[TP_Fan]

https://lionswire.usatoday.com/2023/11/28/detroit-lions-defense-coaching-blunders-poor-fundamentals-aaron-glenn/?taid=65662727f690820001690255&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=twitter

[sagnam]

31 minutes ago, TP_Fan said:

https://lionswire.usatoday.com/2023/11/28/detroit-lions-defense-coaching-blunders-poor-fundamentals-aaron-glenn/?taid=65662727f690820001690255&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=twitter

“Fortunately, the Lions were able to draft defensive players that fit Aaron Glenn and his system. Those players included Aidan Hutchinson, Alex Anzalone, Malcolm Rodriguez, Kerby Joseph and now Brian Branch.”

 

Anzalone? Not a great start to the article.

[sagnam]

The Lions have Jacobs at corner and Walker at safety, below average LBs, and Hutch and McNeil and on the line. This defense needs players drafted higher. Maybe Campbell will develop into something, who knows. But this defense needs actual talent.  Glenn may be a bad coordinator too. Not like there is a magic bullet for getting chicken salad out of chicken ****.

[djhutch]

3 hours ago, Hongbit said:

Campbell Is right about turnovers.  That’s the difference.  

The offensive side is easily solved by the leagues most  up and down OL doing their jobs consistently.  Goff with time doesn’t make mistakes.  Goff under constant pressure is a train wreck.   That is all dependent on this line stepping up and playing to the level they are accustomed.   This team may not win another game if the OL can’t figure it out.  At the same time, they may win them all if the guys up front can get the dominance back.  

On defense,  they can’t sit around and wait for the other team to make a mistake.   They have to put them under pressure and force the issue.   They need to do a much better job of making the opposing offense uncomfortable and forcing them to work faster.  

 

Agree - but it will be hard to do that unless they are healthy.  Vaitai is out for the season - Glasgow can spot him, but if Jonah Jackson goes down, there's not much there to fill in. 

[Jason_R]

I feel confident that Campbell will be better. They ask a lot out of him and seemingly all of their defensive players, and he is just not yet at a point where he can play instinctively. This is why he is a step slow.

Holmes whiffed on Levi and Martin. At this point they can’t assume they will get anything out of Levi. And this team is still not good enough that you can draft not just one but two guys in the third and develop them. It is not a good sign for Martin that he’s behind a cast-off sixth rounder Bohanna on the depth chart. 

This team needs CJGJ back in the worst way. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

I'm really trying to just chalk their recent play up to a small slump during the season. I don't want to panic. I don't want to say SOL. I want to give Dan Campbell and this coaching staff the benefit of the doubt to turn it around quickly on the fly here. I lean towards the negative and looking for the worst to happen, but don't want to do this here.

The 49'ers had a mid-season slump a few weeks back and lost 3 games in a row during their mini slump. They righted the ship and are back on track to being the #2 team in the NFC. If it were only one side of the ball where we appeared to be struggling at or a particular position group, I'd feel better about turning things around quickly. When you look at the last four games from the Ravens through the Packers game on Thanksgiving, you see struggles on every side of the ball.

Jared Goff has played great for the last almost two seasons/years now. He's playing in front of a great offensive line and has really solid weapons at his disposal in St. Brown, Montgomery, Gibbs, and LaPorta. He also has a solid OC and Coach backing him up with mostly, but not always, effective play calling. I have every confidence that if we do slow this regression and bounce right back, it will be because of Goff and this offense.

I have none of the same confidence for this defense because of all three of injuries, personnel, and coaching. Their secondary is really hurting on the injury front and it is clear we don't have the depth to replace the loss of CJGJ and Mosley. But they are really lacking elsewhere in the starting personnel department, especially among their front line. This defensive line is terrible against the pass and gets no pressure against the QB.

The talent along this defensive front is a real problem and the scheme they are asked to carry out from Aaron Glenn does them no favors. They brought back and paid both Charles Harris and the Okwara brothers and have got nothing out of them. They brought back John Comisky and not little out of him. They drafted Levi, Paschal, and Martin and have had next to no productivity from them. Their talent level up front is seriously lacking. They have no one who is a disrupter in their front 4 or 7 beside Hutch and maybe, against the run, McNeil. We are bottom 10 in total sacks with only 22 and bottom 10 in pressures and blitz rate. We average 2.1 sacks per game which is bottom 5 of the league. We haver 5.3 yard per play which is bottom 10 in the league.

This defense is backed up by a coordinator in Arron Glenn, who unlike all the hyperbole and overly dramatic criticisms thrown at his offensive coaching counter part in Ben Johnson, deserves a lot of the criticisms he's getting. No, it wasn't Aaron Glenn's fault that Jared Goff turned the ball over 3 times in a game. Glenn's defense kept us in the Chicago game late and allowed that comeback to happen. Good on him and them for it. But let us not kid ourselves, this defense has had a number of really bad performances this year. Against the Seahawks, Ravens, Chargers, Bears for the first 3 quarters, and now Packers they looked subpar to downright terrible. They are getting dominated up front and putting no pressure on the opposing QBs. They are giving QBs 5/6/7 seconds with a clean pocket at times. And no secondary, not the best in the world, can be expected to hold coverage for that long.

Regarding the secondary though, they aren't without blame either. Obviously, as aforementioned, injuries and lack of depth have played a major role in their struggles. But so has coaching. The secondary isn't making impactful plays. They aren't generating turnovers. Glenn continuously leaves Jerry Jacobs out on an island with no coverage help. He needs safety help out there otherwise he's going to be picked on and shredded all day. But when you can't rush the passer and generate pressure, no corner can be asked to hold coverage for an extended period like this.

I'm really, truly not panicked, yet. I don't believe this is an SOL situation and that we will fall off a cliff. I am a bit concerned about Aaron Glenn and this defense's ability to correct what needs to be corrected.

Edited November 28, 2023 by Mr.TaterSalad

[Motor City Sonics]

7 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

 

I'm really, truly not panicked, yet. I don't believe this is an SOL situation and that we will fall off a cliff. I am a bit concerned about Aaron Glenn and this defense's ability to correct what needs to be corrected.

They just had 3 games in how many days, 12?  13?     Maybe 10 days off will do wonders for them.   

[number20]

1 hour ago, Motor City Sonics said:

They just had 3 games in how many days, 12?  13?     Maybe 10 days off will do wonders for them.   

Or maybe it won't. Not sure I believe anything about this team anymore

[Motor City Sonics]

5 hours ago, number20 said:

Or maybe it won't. Not sure I believe anything about this team anymore

Maybe they just hit a lull.    The Niners lost 3 games in a row.   It happens. 

[1984Echoes]

9 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

They just had 3 games in how many days, 12?  13?     Maybe 10 days off will do wonders for them.   

I think the O-Line healing in these 10 days will do wonders for them...

[Motown Bombers]

Here's why the Lions didn't go all in and trade picks for veterans. There's still good young players who didn't make the list that should have like Gibbs. 

 

[NYLion]

On 11/27/2023 at 6:42 PM, number20 said:

Lions favored. Again.

I liked this team better when they played with a chip on their shoulder, felt disrespected, and were picked to lose. Seems like the greater the media attention and higher the ranking, the worse they play

Outside of the Baltimore game, I don't remember the last game they weren't favored. With the respect the Lions get with the spread and their weak schedule, the Lions have been favored almost every game. I think KC and Baltimore are the only two where they were an underdog, maybe at Green Bay early in the season?

[NYLion]

20 hours ago, sagnam said:

The Lions have Jacobs at corner and Walker at safety, below average LBs, and Hutch and McNeil and on the line. This defense needs players drafted higher. Maybe Campbell will develop into something, who knows. But this defense needs actual talent.  Glenn may be a bad coordinator too. Not like there is a magic bullet for getting chicken salad out of chicken ****.

The Lions staff loves "try hard" guys even if the talent is lacking, the defense is full of these guys. Even Hutch on some level is mostly a try hard, high motor guy. The Lions needs more talent, playmakers, more Gardner-Johnson, Branch types. More speed because they get killed in space on the regular. It's why they're so good against the run, in the trenches, and so bad against the pass and against running QBs that can stretch the defense wide.

Edited November 29, 2023 by NYLion

[Motown Bombers]

 

[RandyMarsh]

If there is a fault with Holmes and Campbell its maybe swaying too heavy to character and "football guys" instead talent.

Now I don't want a team full of bad characters but it feels like they fall in love with a guys character and put that above everything else. Josh Paschal and Levi come to mind there, its like after they drafted them all they talked about was their character and not how they would make us a better football team on the field. 

[Motown Bombers]

5 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

If there is a fault with Holmes and Campbell its maybe swaying too heavy to character and "football guys" instead talent.

Now I don't want a team full of bad characters but it feels like they fall in love with a guys character and put that above everything else. Josh Paschal and Levi come to mind there, its like after they drafted them all they talked about was their character and not how they would make us a better football team on the field. 

I don't think either of those were a big reach though. It's not like they drafted Tavai in the 2nd round. I think they do default to character like Hutchinson over Thibodeaux but I don't think they reach a lot of character. They traded up to draft Jameson Williams and took Gibbs high who are both speed guys. They also took Laporta over Mayer who had more physical tools. Jack Campbell is the high character guy they like but he also had one of the highest RAS scores ever for a LB. 

[number20]

2 hours ago, NYLion said:

Outside of the Baltimore game, I don't remember the last game they weren't favored. With the respect the Lions get with the spread and their weak schedule, the Lions have been favored almost every game. I think KC and Baltimore are the only two where they were an underdog, maybe at Green Bay early in the season?

Not talking about just this year

[KnoxP]

Read/heard two things recently.

1) Suggests Lions are no longer able to surprise their opponent.  This is both in what they term as grit and in talent. Over the past year they've lost only 5 games.  The honeymoon is over. No sneaking up on anyone anymore.

2) Campbell's bold in-game gambles are also now not a surprise. Game 1 @ KC, 4th and 4 fake punt in own end was 😲.  Against GB similar situation, I was even half expecting it. 

Bottom line, opposition is adapting to what's now a larger data set for Campbell, Johnson and Glenn. Lastly, outside the top and bottom extremes there isn't much separation between NFL teams, "parity" is a real thing.

Still have faith and that home playoff game still looks like a legit outcome. Love it!

ASIDE...wonder if N.O. takes the ball first if they win the coin flip. Balt. and GB both did it and put us on our heels. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by KnoxP

[RandyMarsh]

In regards to the fake punt, I don't necessarily think GB was expecting it but more so that they happened to be lined up perfectly to stop it. 

They were lined up wide just like they always do but since we chose to run it to the short side of the field there just was no space there. Against KC we were on the other hash mark so when we went right we were going up the middle of the field where there was more space.

Bottom line is either Campbell or the LS should've noticed all that and called TO or in the LS case just snap it as usual since Greg Olsen said that's what they are taught to do in those situations.

Also I don't buy into the not being able to sneak up on teams anymore. We were one of the most hyped teams all offseason who won 8 of 9 to end the year. Then went and beat the defending champs in their place, that is more than enough for teams to start talking you seriously. 

 

Edited November 29, 2023 by RandyMarsh

[Jason_R]

2 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

I don't think either of those were a big reach though. It's not like they drafted Tavai in the 2nd round. I think they do default to character like Hutchinson over Thibodeaux but I don't think they reach a lot of character. They traded up to draft Jameson Williams and took Gibbs high who are both speed guys. They also took Laporta over Mayer who had more physical tools. Jack Campbell is the high character guy they like but he also had one of the highest RAS scores ever for a LB. 

Yes, if anything they reach too much on health risks. Jaymo, Levi, Paschal, Moseley. How’s that working out?  Then with the reach on Martin you have to scrape the bottom of the barrel for DL depth. 

[Jason_R]

25 minutes ago, KnoxP said:

Read/heard two things recently.

1) Suggests Lions are no longer able to surprise their opponent.  This is both in what they term as grit and in talent. Over the past year they've lost only 5 games.  The honeymoon is over. No sneaking up on anyone anymore.

2) Campbell's bold in-game gambles are also now not a surprise. Game 1 @ KC, 4th and 4 fake punt in own end was 😲.  Against GB similar situation, I was even half expecting it. 

Bottom line, opposition is adapting to what's now a larger data set for Campbell, Johnson and Glenn. Lastly, outside the top and bottom extremes there isn't much separation between NFL teams, "parity" is a real thing.

Still have faith and that home playoff game still looks like a legit outcome. Love it!

ASIDE...wonder if N.O. takes the ball first if they win the coin flip. Balt. and GB both did it and put us on our heels. 

Agree. Lafleur came right out and said they had the Lions game circled on their calendar. Detroit is going to get the best effort from their opponents from here on out. 

[Motown Bombers]