Week Sixteen: Detroit Lions (10-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (7-7)

[Motown Bombers]

2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

They are eventually going to have to create a roster spot for Badgley when he runs out of elevations. They will also need to create room when CJGJ and McNeil return and Houston's possible return. I would not be surprised if Charles Harris is waived. I also haven't heard from Will Harris in a long time. I suspect he could get waived. 

In the past 7 weeks Will Harris has 12 defensive snaps with 5 coming during the Chargers game. He's basically a special teamer. Charles Harris has been inactive the last two weeks and hasn't cracked 25% of the defensive snaps since week 6. Steven Gilmore has been inactive most of the year and only has two defensive snaps all year. 

[NYLion]

On 12/17/2023 at 8:56 PM, MichiganCardinal said:

Assuming we don't get the bye, who would we like to see in the wildcard round, if we had a choice?

Right now it's (6) Vikings (7-7), (7) Rams (7-7), (8) Saints (7-7), (9) Seahawks (6-7), (10) Falcons (6-8), (11) Packers (6-8)... the Giants and Bears are technically not eliminated, but for all intents and purposes aren't worth considering.

The Rams, Falcons, Saints, Packers are probably my four preferred in order. Stafford's return to Detroit being in Ford Field's first playoff game would be cinematic. And I don't think they're that great of a team. While I think they are going to capitalize on your mistakes if you make any (any playoff team would), I think they would be playing with house money as a 6 or 7-seed. They're a middle of the pack team across pretty much every metric, and I think Goff would have a field day against McVay. Neither the Saints or Falcons impress me. We've done it once and we can do it again. While a rubber match against the Packers doesn't seem appealing, they've plateaued since that matchup, and I think the Lions would be ready to roll over the Packers more akin to the first meeting.

The Vikings I don't love, but I also think we should win. I don't love the idea of playing three out of four consecutive weeks against one opponent. Hopefully we would only be playing starters for one of the first two games, and I'm sure either way we would have cards close to the chest in the second match if we saw the third one coming, but it just feels weird. In any event though, I think we would win.

The Seahawks scare me a bit. They just seem to have our number for some reason. Another game we should win, but we should have beat them in week two. And last year.

The Rams are the team I'd want to play the least out of that group. Any of the NFC North or South opponents the Lions SHOULD be able to handle if they play their game. The Rams or Seahawks would be the toughest matchups because of the starpower. The Lions should beat any of these opponents at home though, SHOULD, lack of playoff experience pretty much everywhere outside of QB is one of my biggest concerns.

Edited December 19, 2023 by NYLion

[NYLion]

On 12/18/2023 at 11:44 AM, MichiganCardinal said:

Seriously. Win on Christmas Eve and prioritize health over everything. Don’t sacrifice health for a chance at the 2-seed instead of the 3-seed, because if we have a patchwork offensive line, we aren’t winning any playoff game, home or away.

As long as the Lions have a chance to get the 2 seed, everybody should be playing.

Edited December 19, 2023 by NYLion

[lordstanley]

1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

Here's a scenario, we got 2 minutes left in OT and we just got the ball on our own 30, A win OR TIE secures the division, do you play it safe and just run out the clock insuring the tie or do you be aggressive and try to win which also brings up the possibility of a loss?

I'm taking a knee if Minnesota has no timeouts left. Barring some strange stuff happening to SF, the Lions are not going to get the #1 seed. For #2 and #3, the difference in opponents between #6 and #7 is not yet known and probably not meaningfully better or worse. So it's really about homefield for the 2nd weekend of playoff games. That's not a big enough carrot to risk losing the division and a 1st round home game and dropping to the #6 seed. I'd rather sew up the division and then hope Philly unexpectedly drops a game so that the Lions get #2 after all. 

Edited December 19, 2023 by lordstanley

[RatkoVarda]

38 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

didnt he get gameball after Changers game? brutal 

[Motown Bombers]

44 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

didnt he get gameball after Changers game? brutal 

Dumped for a Hooker. 

[TP_Fan]

Great decision to elevate Hendon to the active roster.  If Goff goes down you got options. Patterson wasn’t a legit NFL kicker.  The lions keeping him as long as they did was odd. They didn’t trust him outside 40 yards and he started to struggle with extra points.  They have struggled with kickers for 3 years. 

[MichiganCardinal]

It feels like when they let Prater walk their attitude was that they didn't want to spend money on a kicker in 2021 and that they'd try a bunch of kickers and eventually find one that got the job done for cheap. Except that now we are in 2023 and eventually has not come to fruition.

[Motown Bombers]

Lions are 9-1 when they give up 28 points or less. The Vikings have only scored 28 or more points once without Cousins (and only once with Cousins). 

[Motown Bombers]

Lions are 10-1 when they have fewer than 3 turnovers. 

[MichiganCardinal]

Lions are 10-0 when they score more points than their opponent.

[Motown Bombers]

4 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

Lions are 10-0 when they score more points than their opponent.

I think it's a big deal. It means the defense doesn't need to be great. 

[Motown Bombers]

I'm also struck by the fact the Vikings only have one game in which they won by double digit points. They generally don't put teams away. 

[Motown Bombers]

Kevin O'Connell's largest margin of victory as a Vikings coach is 16 points and that was the first game of the 2022 season. Vikings have a total of 3 games they have won by double digits since 2022. The Lions have 10 such games. 

Edited December 20, 2023 by Motown Bombers

[Jason_R]

All I want for Christmas is you, Penei Sewell, Graham Glasgow, Frank Ragnow, Jonah Jackson, and Taylor Decker. Stick together until the end of the season, and this season might last a long time. 

[Motown Bombers]

The Lions do not commit many penalties. They are 29th in defensive penalties, however, they are 5th in the number of defensive penalties resulting in 1st downs. When they commit a penalty, they usually commit the worst possible penalty. 

Minnesota is the exact opposite. They commit the 4th most penalties on defense but have the fewest penalties that result in 1st downs. 

Edited December 20, 2023 by Motown Bombers

[buddha]

lions at -3.5 trending to -4.

[Motown Bombers]

Only Swift and Elliott are having good seasons. 

 

[buddha]

jeff okudah is what he is: bad in coverage and good in run support.  same as he was here.  it wasnt matt patricia.  it wasnt aaron glenn.

it was jeff okudah.

the decision not to pay jamal williams looks better every day.

[MichiganCardinal]

24 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Only Swift and Elliott are having good seasons. 

 

Swift has had 11 games with 15+ touches this year. He averaged about half that many in his three years with the Lions. Dude couldn't stay on the field, plus Gibbs is just better.

I do feel a bit for Jamaal Williams though. He would having a similar season to Montgomery here if his agent hadn't screwed him during free agency.

[MichiganCardinal]

2 minutes ago, buddha said:

the decision not to pay jamal williams looks better every day.

My impression of that saga wasn't that the Lions didn't want to pay him, but that his agent wanted more money that the Lions initially offered, and the Lions weren't willing to enter into negotiations while the market passed them by and cornered them into having to sign Williams. So when their imposed deadline came and went for Williams' agent, they weren't going to stand around begging him to sign, they just went to the market and got someone better for about the same amount.

From a POD article about it:

Quote

This week at the owners meetings, Lions general manager Brad Holmes gave his side of the story.

“From a budgeting and planning standpoint pre-free agency, we had an allotment of resources set aside really for Jamaal,” Holmes said. “Didn’t really even consider another running back higher than that amount of resources that we set aside for Jamaal.”

Right off the bat, Holmes seems to be suggesting that they put aside a specific amount of money for Jamaal and did not exceed that with Montgomery’s signing. He reiterates this point a little later.

“Business happens. That’s part of this business, and it just didn’t work (with Williams),” Holmes continued. “We tried, but when the market crystalized and it got to a point where David was in play—kinda within the range or resources that we had set aside—then that’s when we went ahead and went forward with David.”

In any event, I am positive Jamaal would be having a far better season here than he is having in New Orleans.

 

 

[Tigeraholic1]

I like these breakdowns 

 

[RedRamage]

19 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Here's a scenario, we got 2 minutes left in OT and we just got the ball on our own 30, A win OR TIE secures the division, do you play it safe and just run out the clock insuring the tie or do you be aggressive and try to win which also brings up the possibility of a loss?

It this scenario this week? I'd probably play it a bit differently if it was this week or against the Cowboys or the final week.

[Motown Bombers]

4 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

My impression of that saga wasn't that the Lions didn't want to pay him, but that his agent wanted more money that the Lions initially offered, and the Lions weren't willing to enter into negotiations while the market passed them by and cornered them into having to sign Williams. So when their imposed deadline came and went for Williams' agent, they weren't going to stand around begging him to sign, they just went to the market and got someone better for about the same amount.

From a POD article about it:

In any event, I am positive Jamaal would be having a far better season here than he is having in New Orleans.

 

 

I think Williams would have had a better season in Detroit, but Montgomery is a lot better than I thought he was. Williams had the luxury of playing behind some good lines in Detroit and Green Bay. Montgomery was putting up the same production as Williams with a bad line. 

[Motown Bombers]

6 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

I like these breakdowns 

 

One thing that strikes me is the Lions defense compares very well to the Vikings except for red zone efficiency. That is the only reason the Vikings are giving up fewer points. 

I also wonder what Minnesota's offensive production looks like post Kirk Cousins?