2024 NFL Draft

[NYLion]

On 4/21/2024 at 12:55 PM, MichiganCardinal said:

I'd be pretty meh about any of the IOLmen. I trust Holmes completely, so I wouldn't be upset, but I just don't see any of the Day 1 guards or centers (JPJ, Fautanu, Fuaga) being head and shoulders above the Day 2 guards and centers (Zinter, Barton, Frazier, Beebe, Robinson, etc.).

Barton is almost universally being mocked in the 1st round but... you never know. I'd be all in on him if he dropped to 29. Same with Newton, don't see him dropping to 29 but if he did you go snatch him up needs be damned.

Edited April 23 by NYLion

[buddha]

3 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I think he would be the DJ Reader replacement long term. Reader is signed for two years. Given Newton's apparent ability to slide along the line and play on all three downs he could take the spot of John Cominsky up front for now and then replace Reader in a couple of years. If he was the pick I could see a defensive front that is Reader and McNeill on the interior, Hutch and Newton on the ends, Houston on the edge/stand up rusher on passing downs. I think the same could be true for Darius Robinson were he drafted.

reader is a massive run stuffer.  newton is a pass rusher.  different body types and roles.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

5 minutes ago, buddha said:

reader is a massive run stuffer.  newton is a pass rusher.  different body types and roles.

Newton excels both inside against the run and outside as a rusher from scouting reports I've read. So he's someone that can stay inside and play the run too. True, he's not a 330lbs space eater like Reader is, but his run stopping ability appears stout too.

[RatkoVarda]

for some reason, Brad is trending on twitter. not sure why.

I love a really crazy mock draft. A few nuggets out there:

yahoo sports has BH taking DT Michael Hall in R1

PFF has BH taking 2 late RBs

CBS has BH passing on R1 to pick up first picks in Day 2 and 3 from Carolina (not crazy at all)

[Mr.TaterSalad]

If Brad Holmes somehow got Carolina's 2nd round and 3rd round picks that would be a great trade. Carolina doesn't need a QB and the 5th year option that comes with a 1st round pick. Also, Carolina needs all the picks they can get to put talent around Bryce Young. So I don't see why they'd ever make that trade. But that would be awesome if they did.

[buddha]

3 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

for some reason, Brad is trending on twitter. not sure why.

I love a really crazy mock draft. A few nuggets out there:

yahoo sports has BH taking DT Michael Hall in R1

PFF has BH taking 2 late RBs

CBS has BH passing on R1 to pick up first picks in Day 2 and 3 from Carolina (not crazy at all)

michael hall has character concerns so i would doubt it.

and because i said that, the lions will definitely take him.

[buddha]

3 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Newton excels both inside against the run and outside as a rusher from scouting reports I've read. So he's someone that can stay inside and play the run too. True, he's not a 330lbs space eater like Reader is, but his run stopping ability appears stout too.

you said it in your last sentence, he's light.  he's a pass rusher.  t'vondrae sweat would be a reader replacement.

that said, the lions take bpa and he could fit the bill regardless of whether they re-sign mcneil or not.

[Hongbit]

 

Not surprising results but the percentages open eyes.   1st Rd WR is a really bad bet.   

[MichiganCardinal]

56 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

 

Not surprising results but the percentages open eyes.   1st Rd WR is a really bad bet.   

Pretty sure the one center miss was Billy Price, the center taken immediately after Ragnow in 2018. Good thing not even Bob Quinn could screw that up.

[Motown Bombers]

5 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

Pretty sure the one center miss was Billy Price, the center taken immediately after Ragnow in 2018. Good thing not even Bob Quinn could screw that up.

Quinn was actually pretty good at drafting offensive linemen. 4/5 of the offensive line last year were Quinn picks. 

[MichiganCardinal]

22 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Quinn was actually pretty good at drafting offensive linemen. 4/5 of the offensive line last year were Quinn picks. 

At least drafting. He also signed Hal Vaitai at 5 years / $45MM to be our starting RT when he had only ever been the backup in Philly. Obviously worked out once the new regime moved him inside to RG, but was still a bad signing in hindsight. He also let Glasgow walk in free agency before the new regime brought him back.

[Motown Bombers]

Just now, MichiganCardinal said:

At least drafting. He also signed Hal Vaitai at 5 years / $45MM to be our starting RT when he had only ever been the backup in Philly. Obviously worked out once the new regime moved him inside to RG, but was still a bad signing in hindsight. He also let Glasgow walk in free agency before the new regime brought him back.

Wagner and Lang weren't great signings either, but if I had a position in my front office for someone just to evaluate college offensive lineman, I would add Quinn to that room. 

[Mr.TaterSalad]

Jahmyr Gibbs was a player I actually wanted in last years draft. I was just really hoping we could get him later in the first round or second round. In hindsight, he was never last until the second round. I went back and reread my initial reaction of the Lions taking Gibbs from last year's draft thread. I would just like to apologize to Lions GM Brad Holmes. My initial reaction to taking a RB that high in the first was that it was an SOL move. It was indeed NOT an SOL move and it ended up working out very well for the Lions. Brad Holmes, I'm sorry. Job well done on scouting and picking Gibbs.

[Motown Bombers]

I don't get RB being low value. Gibbs touched the ball 234 times which was 3rd behind Montgomery who had 235 touches and Goff. Even if he doesn't sign a second contract, a lot of first round picks don't. 

I'll also argue TE is a good value position. Laporta had 86 catches and almost 900 yards. If he puts up that production as a WR, he gets paid double. Kelce puts up wide receiver numbers and gets paid half what a receiver would make. 

[holygoat]

RB's may not have the same long-term value as other positions, but their developmental curve is smaller than most other positions. RBs can make an impact immediately.

[gehringer_2]

12 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I don't get RB being low value

I guess it's based on the view in vogue that running backs are all pretty much interchangeable because all the running game has to do is make short yardage and the OLine can make a hole for anyone. I tend to think that view is already becoming passe - a number of teams  - and good teams (Lions/49ers) have elevated the running game to a bigger part of their overall offense and as more follow suit (the NFL has always been a follow the winner league) I think the perception of positional value will follow. There is always some cycling/recycling of what works on offense in the NFL. 

Edited April 24 by gehringer_2

[1984Echoes]

They are also "low value" not because what they do on the field isn't critical... it IS... but, because:

1. Long term value is not there as they get beaten up and used up faster than any other position on the team.

2. The heavy emphasis on the passing game has devalued them compared to prior eras...

 

I don't agree that they are of "low value". I would put that differently: I would call it "calculated value". A RB is still needed in the NFL, believe it or not... so an Org has to "calculate" when to use a draft pick based on a much shorter longevity for that position, talent and impact on the team, etc...

Holmes took a "calculated risk" selecting Gibbs at #12 and, so far, it's been worth it. A great career by Gibbs and it was absolutely worth it.

IMO.

[1984Echoes]

PS: If we add a couple more mid-round picks, or maybe even if not... I would hazard a guess that Holmes calculates another risk and is willing to add another RB to the RB room with Benson in the 3rd (only with additional picks) or Corum in the 5th or 6th...

Just a guess.

[MichiganCardinal]

3 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

PS: If we add a couple more mid-round picks, or maybe even if not... I would hazard a guess that Holmes calculates another risk and is willing to add another RB to the RB room with Benson in the 3rd (only with additional picks) or Corum in the 5th or 6th...

Just a guess.

When both Montgomery and Gibbs were hurt in the first game against Tampa Bay, Craig Reynolds was the leading back, but could only muster 10 carries for 15 yards.

Granted, part of that is that Tampa has a very good run defense. But also, that's not good enough. At such a fragile position, I'd prefer someone better than Craig Reynolds, even though I know they have said they love him in the locker room.

I don't think it'll happen in the first three rounds. I think they will take the best DB, EDGE, WR, or IOL available with each of those picks. But in the 5th and beyond, when you're just looking for depth, an RB3 would make sense.

[NYLion]

1 hour ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Jahmyr Gibbs was a player I actually wanted in last years draft. I was just really hoping we could get him later in the first round or second round. In hindsight, he was never last until the second round. I went back and reread my initial reaction of the Lions taking Gibbs from last year's draft thread. I would just like to apologize to Lions GM Brad Holmes. My initial reaction to taking a RB that high in the first was that it was an SOL move. It was indeed NOT an SOL move and it ended up working out very well for the Lions. Brad Holmes, I'm sorry. Job well done on scouting and picking Gibbs.

Anybody who is being honest will admit that they were miffed by the Gibbs pick for the most part. I'm sure there were a few that were onboard with the pick at the time but most of us were baffled at him being picked that high, same with Campbell. TBH, it seemed like most weren't happy with the LaPorta pick either although I liked him. Branch was the one pick that was universally liked at the time.

Long story short.... Trust In Brad Holmes and not us armchair scouts.

[NYLion]

1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

I don't get RB being low value. Gibbs touched the ball 234 times which was 3rd behind Montgomery who had 235 touches and Goff. Even if he doesn't sign a second contract, a lot of first round picks don't. 

I'll also argue TE is a good value position. Laporta had 86 catches and almost 900 yards. If he puts up that production as a WR, he gets paid double. Kelce puts up wide receiver numbers and gets paid half what a receiver would make. 

I get it. Most RBs don't get a 2nd contract with their initial team and most RBS aren't the focal points of the offense, same with TE. It takes a special RB and TE to be worth being taken that high, like Gibbs and LaPorta even though LaPorta wasn't a high pick but moreso that in future years when teams are contemplating taking Tight Ends with a high 1st, the sentiment will be "They better be the next LaPorta to be worth it".

[gehringer_2]

4 minutes ago, NYLion said:

Most RBs don't get a 2nd contract with their initial team

There are two thing are work here that are separable. RBs have short shelf lives, other than the rare outlier it's a young man's position, so you can argue correctly that picking one doesn't return the long term value of QB or OLineman who can play for 12+ yrs. But that's a very different argument from whether you can't still put a better offense on the field with a premium running back. Looked at from that angle, you may have to resign yourself to picking a good one more often if want to put the optimum offense on the field.

[Motown Bombers]

3 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

There are two thing are work here that are separable. RBs have short shelf lives, other than the rare outlier it's a young man's position, so you can argue correctly that picking one doesn't return the long term value of QB or OLineman who can play for 12+ yrs. But that's a very different argument from whether you can't still put a better offense on the field with a premium running back. Looked at from that angle, you may have to resign yourself to picking a good one more often if want to put the optimum offense on the field.

How many QBs and OL actually last on the team that drafted them for 12+ years? The chart that was posted earlier show interior lineman has lasting the longest and that's considered another low value position. My position has gone to taking elite talent regardless of position. I would rather have an elite talent at a low value position than an average talent at a high value position. 

[gehringer_2]

2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

How many QBs and OL actually last on the team that drafted them for 12+ years? The chart that was posted earlier show interior lineman has lasting the longest and that's considered another low value position. My position has gone to taking elite talent regardless of position. I would rather have an elite talent at a low value position than an average talent at a high value position. 

If I were a GM I think I'd come at low value/high value from the question of what positions require extra-ordinary players vs where can I elevate team play with scheme and discipline. Obviously it a continuum, but near one end I'd put QBs and near the other maybe LBs 

[Jimbo]

The Lions are now at the point where your not just picking for actual starters but depth and future starters.  If you can draft position you are strong at (like the OL) but can replace a high salary player 1-3 years from now and also have quality depth in case of an injury, its just as good as picking a starter.  That's why drafts are hard to grade even 1 year from the actual draft.   It's going to be very hard to find starter in the draft now.  CB, K, S, WR (X position) and maybe edge are really the only spots you can really draft a player better than what we already have at the spot we are picking.  Not saying it can't happen (especially with Holmes trading history) and we know Holmes can do it, it just will be very difficult.  I just don't think this draft is a failure if they don't find an immediate starter.  Even if you draft a CB, chances they are starting day 1 is not a guarantee.