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2024 NFL Draft


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10 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I don't think any other massive free agent signings are coming. I expect us to sign a guard, likely Kevin Zeitler or Greg Van Roten, on a one-year deal; a WR, likely Josh Reynolds, DJ Chark, Mike Williams, or Michael Thomas on a one-year deal; and maybe some defensive depth, particularly in the secondary, guys like Kamren Curl or Tre'Davious White would fit the bill.

My preferences with the draft...

1. Trade for an instant playmaker. This could be either a trade up in the draft or a trade for someone like Tee Higgins, Josh Sweat, or Haasan Reddick. In any event, the team is closer than they've been in franchise history to being a perennial Super Bowl contender. There is no reason to beat around the bush or to draft guys as "projects" right now (unless you're damn sure that that project is going to work out). Go get the guy or guys who will put you over the top.

2. Edge Rusher. I think this is where I would most prefer us add a 1st round talent, though there are only a couple names that likely qualify (Dallas Turner, Jared Verse, and Laiatu Latu). I think the addition of Reader next to Alim is a great start to fixing the defensive line, but we now need a true long-term bookend to Hutchinson, to unleash (what I see as) his true potential as a 15+ sack a year edge rusher... No more revolving door of mediocrity between the Okwaras and Charles Harris... This overlaps with #1 above, but I would like to see us go get one of those top three edge rushers if they fall out of the top twenty. I don't think Davenport's one-year deal forecloses this either.

3. Offensive Guard. Even with a signing of Zeitler or Van Roten (which really should happen), I think IOL will be the most glaring "need" of the team going into the draft. Guard is not a position where you need a top ten pick to find a quality long-term starter, which is good. The two best OG prospects I see were OTs in college (Taliese Fuaga and Troy Fautanu). They could pick them up and spend 2024 transitioning them to LG or RG, depending on where they want Glasgow. They could also use them as a long-term plan for RT when Decker leaves. Given they are tweeners, they could possibly slide to #29 despite being top-20 talents.

Otherwise, there will be a plethora of options at #61 and #73. Layden Robinson, Graham Barton, Cooper Beebe, Zak Zinter, and Zach Frazier all make sense, are all potential high quality starting OGs, and I would expect more than one of them to be available at #61 and at least one to be there at #73.

4. Secondary depth. I expect Carlton Davis to receive an extension in the next month or so. He's only 28, in a contract year, and is coming off his worst year, making him something of a buy-low extension candidate. Obviously the Lions like him or they wouldn't have used a "starting" draft pick to trade for him. Add onto that that he currently stands at the 3rd highest cap hit on the team and I think it would make sense to give him an extra year or two and spread that cap hit out. That being said, I don't think the Lions are going to be seeking a CB1 in the draft. I think they view Sutton and Davis as CB1a and CB1b, and will align them game by game as they see fit, with Branch at NB, Kerby at FS, and Iffy at SS.

That being said, that still feels incredibly perilous. Behind that group, you have guys like Moseley and Amik Robertson at corner, but you really have nothing at safety depth. You don't want to risk an injury there (like how CJGJ suffered one) and having nothing behind them. Further, Kerby has had cold streaks, and you can't say with 100% certainty that Iffy's late dramatic improvement is here to stay. They need to add something to that group in terms of depth. If you're gift wrapped Cooper DeJean at #29 I think you have to seriously consider it, but otherwise guys like Javon Bullard and Kamren Kitchens make sense in the 2nd and 3rd, or just depth later on. Jaden Hicks out of Wazzu is a Dan Campbell guy to keep an eye on.

5. Depth. Can never have enough of it.

How would you feel if they drafted a kicker in the 6th or 7th?

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2 hours ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

How would you feel if they drafted a kicker in the 6th or 7th?

I'd be okay with it. It's more about who the kicker is than whether you draft them or sign them as a UDFA. Plenty of kickers drafted in the 6th or 7th round flame out and plenty UDFAs work out pretty well. If Holmes sees a kicker in the 6th worth taking, it would mean something, because he can find guys like James Houston and Malcolm Rodriguez in the 6th round. 

I'd rather not go into 2024 with the Patterson & Badgley Show again.

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42 minutes ago, buddha said:

i hope they draft a long snapper.  that will show that they mean business.

/throwbackfights

You can only get value on long snappers before the 3rd round. I think trading the pick for Davis probably means they’re happy with Daly. /s

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16 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

My preferences with the draft...

 

Homes preferences for the draft:

1. Best player available
2. Best player available
3. Best player available
4. Best player available
5. Best player available

I've always been of the opinion that a team would balance their needs with the available talent at any given position. And while I do think Holmes takes needs into consideration, I think it's a very low consideration. I really, really don't think Holmes is going to put hardly any weight into needs. 

His philosophy seems very much to be that you fill holes through FA, but you find and build the stars through the draft. So far it's worked... that doesn't mean it will always work, but until I see it fall apart I guess I'm gonna side with Holmes. I completely agree with you, MC, that those are our needs. But I don't think that Holmes care much that those are our needs.

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Just now, RedRamage said:

Homes preferences for the draft:

1. Best player available
2. Best player available
3. Best player available
4. Best player available
5. Best player available

I've always been of the opinion that a team would balance their needs with the available talent at any given position. And while I do think Holmes takes needs into consideration, I think it's a very low consideration. I really, really don't think Holmes is going to put hardly any weight into needs. 

His philosophy seems very much to be that you fill holes through FA, but you find and build the stars through the draft. So far it's worked... that doesn't mean it will always work, but until I see it fall apart I guess I'm gonna side with Holmes. I completely agree with you, MC, that those are our needs. But I don't think that Holmes care much that those are our needs.

I think this is more the case early in a rebuild and less the case as you go on. In 2021, name the position and we could use an upgrade. Now though, drafting a OT who can't play OG doesn't make much sense. Neither would drafting a QB, TE, or RB. At least not early.

I think past the 3rd round or so, yeah, just draft the best player on your board and call them depth. But before that, when your rebuild is where we now are and you have just a few holes to plug, you shouldn't get cute and draft a great backup LB when a starting CB or Edge rusher could be the difference between the NFCCG and the Super Bowl.

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2 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

I think this is more the case early in a rebuild and less the case as you go on. In 2021, name the position and we could use an upgrade. Now though, drafting a OT who can't play OG doesn't make much sense. Neither would drafting a QB, TE, or RB. At least not early.

I think past the 3rd round or so, yeah, just draft the best player on your board and call them depth. But before that, when your rebuild is where we now are and you have just a few holes to plug, you shouldn't get cute and draft a great backup LB when a starting CB or Edge rusher could be the difference between the NFCCG and the Super Bowl.

I tend to agree with this.

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2 hours ago, RedRamage said:

Homes preferences for the draft:

1. Best player available
2. Best player available
3. Best player available
4. Best player available
5. Best player available

I've always been of the opinion that a team would balance their needs with the available talent at any given position. And while I do think Holmes takes needs into consideration, I think it's a very low consideration. I really, really don't think Holmes is going to put hardly any weight into needs. 

His philosophy seems very much to be that you fill holes through FA, but you find and build the stars through the draft. So far it's worked... that doesn't mean it will always work, but until I see it fall apart I guess I'm gonna side with Holmes. I completely agree with you, MC, that those are our needs. But I don't think that Holmes care much that those are our needs.

But this...

Is just waaay too simplistic IMO.

IE: You cannot just go to Kiper's top 100 and say "BUT WAIT! That guy is not BPA!"

I'm not even saying that to be difficult... we just ALL know that BPA to anyone else is NOT BPA to Holmes/ Campbell. They have different criteria than anyone else. And also... to MC's point: Holmes specifically stated that they maneuvered to get their guys (Gibbs, Campbell, LaPorta, Branch, Hooker, Martin AND Sorsdal) NOT because of "BPA", but because he and Dan wanted THESE guys to help the team make a run to the Playoffs. Holmes straight up said: "We drafted these specific guys at these positions to help us get to the playoffs."

You can't say "BPA" with these guys. You have to say "Best Fit for the Lions".

IMO.

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On that note: If I'm looking at 1st round talent... the next thing I am considering is "but are these Holmes/Campbell players"?) If I look at 1st round players... I'm looking at it from the perspective of, are these guys even on the Lions draft board, and finding multiple reasons to exclude guys, using a Holmes/ Dan Campbell reason. IE: 1) "We are just not going to use a 1st round pick on a QB". So, ixne QB's. 2) "We see no need to move up to a top 10 pick, the cost is too great." So, not only QB's, but also top 10 WR's and OT's. 3) "If a CB won't tackle in run support, we don't like them." So, Wiggins and Kool-Aid are OFF the Lions draft board, entirely, because they are both ****ty tacklers. It doesn't matter if either or both are available at our pick, and they are the "consensus" BPA players... they are NOT on the Lions draft board because they are not LIONS type of players. So again, toss "BPA" out the door because it's meaningless, in a Lions context. 4) "We want players who love the game, play the game for their teammates, and have 'True Grit'. And who dominate their man/ position. And have the leadership qualities that "drive" their teams to wins."

That strips down "1st round talents" to only a few players that (because I'm just guessing here...) could fit on the Lions draft board... and I'm not working with all the info that they have available... I'm just taking a guess based on the scouting reports. Also, I don't agree that "BPA" basically rules all. If a QB or TE or RB is the "so-called" BPA pick, they aren't selecting those guys when making the Super Bowl is paramount. What that means (to me), is that if they like a player more than those 3 positions, but would need to trade up to get him, or they felt confidant they could trade down and STILL get their guy... that they would rather maneuver and get the guy that helps them win games rather than just stay at their draft spot and select JJ McCarthy just because "well, he was the BPA". They're just NOT going to do that. They will maneuver up or down to get a player they want, rather than simply draft a "BPA" player because there just simply is no other choice. Wrong. There's always a choice: Maneuver and get the guy you want. That being said:

Top 10-11 guys I think are on the LIONS Draft Board:

1) Edge - Jared Verse

2) CB - Quinyon Mitchell

3) OG/OT - Taliese Fuaga

4) OG/C - Jackson Powers-Johnson

5) WR - Adonai Mitchell

6) WR - Brian Thomas

7) EDGE - Chop Robinson

8  ) OG/OT - Troy Fautanu

9) CB - Terrion Arnold

10) OG/C - Zach Frazier

11) CB/S - Cooper DeJean

 

I think only a couple of those players will fall to the Lions' spot. I'm going to guess that Holmes might be "tempted" to move up for one of "his" (or DC's) "guys".

The next guys that DC/ Holmes would be interested in, IMO, would all seem to be "2nd-round grade" guys.

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I think Holmes is position, based on the signings this week to go in variety of directions.

Personally, I hope OL.  Either a guy who can play OG immediately or OG/C OG/T, guy who can backup Ragnow or Decker if need be.  

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The more I read about Darius Robinson the more I don't want him, yet the more I think he would be their guy if they did take a DE in round one. The guy screams Josh Paschal to me and I've seen nothing out of Paschal that makes me think he's anything more than an average at best lineman with little pass rush ability, no explosiveness and his best trait is his versatility to move along the line.

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1 hour ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

The more I read about Darius Robinson the more... I think he would be their guy if they did take a DE in round one. The guy ...makes me think he's anything more than an average at best lineman with little pass rush ability, no explosiveness and his best trait is his versatility to move along the line.

So why would he be on their 1st round radar?

You're making zero sense.

Is he a "dog mentality" or laden with "grit"? Because I would need to see that somewhere for this to make any kind of sense.

Is he explosive or dominant at his position? Like Sewell? Jahmyr Gibbs? Hutchinson? Jameson Williams?

Because if he's not. And he's only "flexible", as you've stated.. then you just described a mid-2nd round guy, which is where they drafted Paschal and where Darius Robinson would most likely be graded by the Lions.

You describe 2nd-rounder Josh Paschal and then state that as the reason to select Darius Robinson in the 1st round?

What is your reasoning, please?

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First off, I say all this to say IF THEY TAKE a DE in the first round versus another position, I feel like Robinson would be the type of player they would like. We obviously already know the Lions prioritize a guy who fits their culture. And from everything I have read Robinson is that. He is a try hard guy with a high motor and a love for the game of football. He seems like a guy who is willing to listen, learn, and can be coached up to do things the way this coaching staff wants them done. I see no attitude issues or cultural red flags with him.

The Lions also seem to value more complete players, versus either raw talent or guys who are really good at one thing but don't do other things all that well. In this case, a guy who can be a three down lineman versus just a pure edge setting,, pass rush specialist. Three other things Robinson seems to offer is versatility, the ability to play along multiple spots on the line, and run defense. A more complete, but less exciting player. I get the feeling, given what this coaching staff prioritizes on defense, that they'd rather have the versatility of a guy like Robinson who can move along the defensive front than a guy who sets the edge and doesn't slide inside. I also feel this coaching staff would value a guy who is better against the run and can stay in on all three downs versus the more pure pass rushing type edge defender. So if we're sitting there at 29 and there are better "pass rushers" available like a Jonah Ellis type player, they're going with the more complete player who matches what they see in a defensive lineman IMO.

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So...

In the 1st round they've selected:

Sewell - A dominant All-Pro level OT.

Gibbs - a game-breaking RB with elite speed (traded down to draft him).

Jameson Williams - a game-breaking, elite-speed WR (traded up to draft him)

Hutchinson - a dominant, relentless, pass-rushing and run stopping DE demon.

Jury has not yet decided on Campbell.

 

But you think the Lions are set on Darius Robinson in the 1st round, who, in your own words: "anything (nothing) more than an average at best lineman with little pass rush ability, no explosiveness and his best trait is his versatility to move along the line".

Again, that makes ZERO sense.

I will state it thusly: I think you are FLAT out WRONG.

Not even in the ballpark wrong.

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I’m starting to think that if they stay at 29, the pick will be the top C/G combo on their board.  Assume that’s JPJ but I wouldn’t put it past them to have either Barton or Little ranked the same or higher.    Having that 5th year option seems valuable with Ragnow’s uncertain future.  He could retire after next season or hang around for 4 more years.   The draft pick can play G and backup at C in the meantime.  

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1 hour ago, Hongbit said:

I’m starting to think that if they stay at 29, the pick will be the top C/G combo on their board.  Assume that’s JPJ but I wouldn’t put it past them to have either Barton or Little ranked the same or higher.    Having that 5th year option seems valuable with Ragnow’s uncertain future.  He could retire after next season or hang around for 4 more years.   The draft pick can play G and backup at C in the meantime.  

I think JPJ has been flying up mocks to the mid-1st.

That doesn't mean anything... but if it does, and he's a mid not late 1st, either the Lions have to work a trade-up or set their sights on a lesser talent. Frazier is the next OC who can play OG and... he's not much different than JPJ (per scouting reports): very high FB-IQ, nasty/mean streak, very athletic. JPJ is the better athlete, but Frazier's pretty close. Per scouting reports that is.

I'm thinking they wait for Frazier to fall to 29 (he's starting to get mocked to the Lions quite a bit); OR they trade up for someone they believe that impacts the game/ wins at a higher level. But there's lots of options with that so...  I wouldn't hazard a guess if they moved up... could even be a WR like Brian Thomas.

But I think they can let the draft fall to them and get a Chop Robinson or Cooper DeJean (he's fallen just slightly as teams look at him as more of a FS than a CB... but I think the Lions would be tickled to nab him as a hybrid FS/CB and play him wherever they needed him...), or Frazier.

The thing with Barton is he hasn't played Center in over 3 years so I'm not certain how viable that is. I think he's also a Guard, not a tackle, in the NFL. Maybe a right tackle if Sewell moves to take over from Decker. He's probably a higher draft board rank for the Lions... as long as he still has some position flexibility (I think the Lions will value that highly). He looks like a BEAST. So that'll be high on their radar.

Little?

Who dat?

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there's a lot of high end talent at very important positions in this draft (qb, wr, lt, cb) that could push a lot of interior lineman down the board.

i hope the lions get some ragnow insurance.  theyre going to need it soon.  getting a center who can play guard would be ideal.  not sure it needs to be in round one unless you want the oregon kid.

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One more thing about the BPA vs. need debate, I think we also have to factor in how far along we are now when factoring that in. When you are rebuilding and are multiple years away from SB aspirations you just keep collecting the most talent you can regardless of positions but the closer you get to the SB I feel that is when it makes more sense to draft for need and plug a hole if the talent are close otherwise.

Like a simplistic point of view if in a vacuum one guy you have an 85 grade on but another is 83 or 84 but that 83 or 84 is a clear need and can benefit the team right away I'd take him when you are in the position we are right now. 

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1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

... but the closer you get to the SB I feel that is when it makes more sense to draft for need and plug a hole if the talent are close otherwise.

Like a simplistic point of view if in a vacuum one guy you have an 85 grade on but another is 83 or 84 but that 83 or 84 is a clear need and can benefit the team right away I'd take him when you are in the position we are right now. 

I don't think Holmes thinks like that. Actually, let me rephrase that. If the 85 is a QB, he's definitely going to pick the other guy. But I'd flesh that out thusly:

I think this is how he thinks: "Hmmm, looks like an 85 (on the LIONS scale) is going to fall to our spot, but there's NO WAY we're going to draft another QB. Hmmm, I could select this 84 also dropping to us, OR I could trade up the 3 spots that Tampa is offering us for our 5th rounder (too cheap, GOTTA do it...!) for that 86 OG/C that we're in LOVE with" ("woohoo!").

OR... they really want that 84 so yes, select him. OR... A trade down is offered to the 2nd because someone really wants that falling QB and we can pick up an extra 3rd round pick and if I count the # of spots we drop down we can STILL get our guy (because he reads what the other teams seem to be doing pretty damn well it seems to me...).

Meaning...

I'm not certain we can put "simplistic" and Holmes in the same sentence...

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MC Mock Draft 1.1

  1. Chicago Bears (from CAR) - Caleb Williams, QB, USC
  2. Washington Commanders - Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
  3. New England Patriots - Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
  4. Arizona Cardinals - Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas  
  5. Minnesota Vikings (Trade w/ LAC) - Drake Maye, QB, UNC
  6. New York Giants - Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
  7. Tennessee Titans - Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
  8. Atlanta Falcons - Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
  9. Seattle Seahawks (Trade w/ CHI) - JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan
  10. New York Jets - Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
  11. Los Angeles Chargers (Trade w/ MIN) - Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
  12. Denver Broncos - Kris Jenkins, DT, Michigan
  13. Las Vegas Raiders - JC Latham, OT, Alabama
  14. New Orleans Saints - Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
  15. Indianapolis Colts - Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
  16. Chicago Bears (Trade w/ SEA) - Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
  17. Jacksonville Jaguars - Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon
  18. Cincinnati Bengals - Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
  19. Los Angeles Rams - Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
  20. Pittsburgh Steelers - Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
  21. Miami Dolphins - Troy Fautanu, IOL, Washington
  22. Philadelphia Eagles - Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
  23. Los Angeles Chargers (Trade w/ MIN thru CLE & HOU) - Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
  24. Detroit Lions (Trade w/ DAL) - Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
  25. Green Bay Packers - Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
  26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
  27. Cincinnati Bengals (from ARI* thru HOU) - Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia
  28. New England Patriots (Trade w/ BUF) - Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
  29. Dallas Cowboys (Trade w/ DET) - Johnny Newton, DT, Illinois
  30. Baltimore Ravens - Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
  31. San Francisco 49ers - Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
  32. Kansas City Chiefs - Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina

*ARI/CIN Trade includes Tee Higgins

61. Detroit Lions - Kingsley Suamataia, OT/OG, BYU

73. Detroit Lions - Johnny Wilson, WR, Florida State

164. Detroit Lions - Kalen King, CB, Penn State

[#201 and a 2025 4th sent to DAL]

205. Detroit Lions - Donovan Manuel, ILB, Florida International

249. Detroit Lions - Joshua Karty, K, Stanford

Edited by MichiganCardinal
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13 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

MC Mock Draft 1.1

  1. Chicago Bears (from CAR) - Caleb Williams, QB, USC
  2. Washington Commanders - Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
  3. New England Patriots - Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
  4. Arizona Cardinals - Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas  
  5. Minnesota Vikings (Trade w/ LAC) - Drake Maye, QB, UNC
  6. New York Giants - Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
  7. Tennessee Titans - Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
  8. Atlanta Falcons - Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
  9. Seattle Seahawks (Trade w/ CHI) - JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan
  10. New York Jets - Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
  11. Los Angeles Chargers (Trade w/ MIN) - Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
  12. Denver Broncos - Kris Jenkins, DT, Michigan
  13. Las Vegas Raiders - JC Latham, OT, Alabama
  14. New Orleans Saints - Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
  15. Indianapolis Colts - Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
  16. Chicago Bears (Trade w/ SEA) - Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
  17. Jacksonville Jaguars - Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon
  18. Cincinnati Bengals - Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
  19. Los Angeles Rams - Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
  20. Pittsburgh Steelers - Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
  21. Miami Dolphins - Troy Fautanu, IOL, Washington
  22. Philadelphia Eagles - Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
  23. Los Angeles Chargers (Trade w/ MIN thru CLE & HOU) - Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
  24. Detroit Lions (Trade w/ DAL) - Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
  25. Green Bay Packers - Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
  26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
  27. Cincinnati Bengals (from ARI* thru HOU) - Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia
  28. New England Patriots (Trade w/ BUF) - Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
  29. Dallas Cowboys (Trade w/ DET) - Johnny Newton, DT, Illinois
  30. Baltimore Ravens - Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
  31. San Francisco 49ers - Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
  32. Kansas City Chiefs - Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina

*ARI/CIN Trade includes Tee Higgins

61. Detroit Lions - Kingsley Suamataia, OT/OG, BYU

73. Detroit Lions - Johnny Wilson, WR, Florida State

164. Detroit Lions - Kalen King, CB, Penn State

[#201 and a 2025 4th sent to DAL]

205. Detroit Lions - Donovan Manuel, ILB, Florida International

249. Detroit Lions - Joshua Karty, K, Stanford

In that scenario I may have taken the OT that went to GB a pick later more than Verse.

Not a huge fan of King but overall it attacks needs.

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