2024 NFC Championship Game: Detroit Lions (14-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (13-5)

[Motown Bombers]

 

[RandyMarsh]

The key thing is "per play", the Lions whole game plan is predicated on limiting the amount of plays and possessions opponents get which is why Im not too concerned when I see stats like that.  

[gehringer_2]

23 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

The 49ers may be without Deebo and have a losing record when he doesn't play. 

RIght. Whether Deebo plays, whether he's effective if he does, ditto for Ragnow. All factors. How is LaPorta after stressing the knee last week etc., etc. A lot of guys will be playing who may not be near 100%.  It's not a fun part of the game to talk about so I think it tends to get more lost than it should in all the talk about match-ups and strategy, but 22 football games in one year is as much a battle of attrition across your whole line-up as anything else.

Edited January 25, 2024 by gehringer_2

[Motown Bombers]

3 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

The key thing is "per play", the Lions whole game plan is predicated on limiting the amount of plays and possessions opponents get which is why Im not too concerned when I see stats like that.  

And the thing is the Lions haven't given up more than 24 points in the past 6 games and are 5-1 and really should be 6-0. I remember how Dallas was averaging 40 PPG at home and only managed 20 and a Derrick Barnes tackle from probably scoring less. 

[oblong]

Isn't a home team favored by less than 7 basically a toss up?

 

[Motown Bombers]

I think 3 is basically a toss up like the Lions over the Rams. Usually the home team gets a +3 bump. +7 is clear favorites. 

[RandyMarsh]

I may have it more in the + 4 or 5 territory but I don't think 7 is too egregious. 

[NYLion]

1 hour ago, MichiganCardinal said:

Maybe to the lay community. Vegas isn't stupid, obviously they're getting money on both sides at -7, so that's why it's the line. But the 49ers were 12-5 and won one close game in the playoffs, the Lions were 12-5 and won two close games in the playoffs (though never trailed in either game). The 49ers have been there before, but I don't know how much that really matters in a one game win-and-you're-in scenario. I think these teams are extremely similar.

I don't think record matter that much because it depends on context. For instance, the Lions were 12-5 at home against a 10-7 Rams team and were only a 3 point favorite then hosted the 10-8 Bucs who came off of destroying the Eagles just a week later and were almost a 7 point favorite. The Rams and Bucs had similar records but reputation and proven commodity comes into play so the Rams got a lot more respect with the line.

I don't think the TD spread is justified but I can understand why the Niners would get the betting line respect.

Edited January 25, 2024 by NYLion

[buddha]

38 minutes ago, oblong said:

Isn't a home team favored by less than 7 basically a toss up?

 

homw team supposedly gets 3 points automatically.

if deebo were healthy the line is probably closer to 10 but certainly over 7.  the lions have two of the worst starting corners in the league.  their linebackers arent great in coverage either which will hurt against mccaffery.

the lions can certainly win this game, but the niners are favored for a reason: theyre very talented and they are playing at home.

[Motown Bombers]

LOL no way the Lions would be bigger under dogs than the Packers against a rested and healthy 49ers team. 

[NYLion]

43 minutes ago, oblong said:

Isn't a home team favored by less than 7 basically a toss up?

 

No, I'd say 2 or 3 is usually a toss up game. If the Lions played at the Rams, the Rams would have likely been favored by 3 as the Lions were favored by 3 playing at home. If they were playing the Niners at Ford Field, the Niners would probably be a slight favorite or it would be even.

[buddha]

17 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

LOL no way the Lions would be bigger under dogs than the Packers against a rested and healthy 49ers team. 

LOL

[Motown Bombers]

1 minute ago, buddha said:

LOL

Good, even you agree how ridiculous you sound. 

[buddha]

Just now, Motown Bombers said:

Good, even you agree how ridiculous you sound. 

LOL

[Motown Bombers]

I feel like they have been saying this for over a month. If he doesn't play in this game, there was no point adding him to the 53 man roster.

 

[buddha]

i had the pack +10 and made a nice chunk of change....which means i made $5 on my $5 bet.  🙂

i could see the lions as a similar underdog against a niners squad.  maybe 9?

regardless, deebo aint practicing and if he's playing he's playing hurt.

lions started as +6.5 and are now +7.5.  

[Hongbit]

5 minutes ago, buddha said:

i had the pack +10 and made a nice chunk of change....which means i made $5 on my $5 bet.  🙂

i could see the lions as a similar underdog against a niners squad.  maybe 9?

regardless, deebo aint practicing and if he's playing he's playing hurt.

lions started as +6.5 and are now +7.5.  

I heard one of the Vegas guys talking and they were getting a ton of money coming in on the Lions from their Michigan operations and sports gambling still not being legal in California played a role in less Niner money coming in.  

[Sports_Freak]

3 hours ago, buddha said:

i had the pack +10 and made a nice chunk of change....which means i made $5 on my $5 bet.  🙂

i could see the lions as a similar underdog against a niners squad.  maybe 9?

regardless, deebo aint practicing and if he's playing he's playing hurt.

lions started as +6.5 and are now +7.5.  

Hit Deebo...often and hard. Repeatedly. And then some more. Get him out of the game and the Lions win. Put an * on it, I don't care. Get. Us. To. A. Super Bowl!!

[Longgone]

3 hours ago, Hongbit said:

I heard one of the Vegas guys talking and they were getting a ton of money coming in on the Lions from their Michigan operations and sports gambling still not being legal in California played a role in less Niner money coming in.  

That would cause the spread to narrow, not widen.

[Hongbit]

8 minutes ago, Longgone said:

That would cause the spread to narrow, not widen.

Probably more money early on the Niners but more overall tickets on the Lions.    
 

This tweet sort of gets to what I was talking about with the legalized states . 

 

 

[Motown Bombers]

 

[lordstanley]

 

 

[Hongbit]

It’s his shoulder so he should have no problem running routes against nobody.   The challenge is how does he take a hit, or get off a jam at the line,  or block in the run game.   

[MichiganCardinal]

1 minute ago, Hongbit said:

It’s his shoulder so he should have no problem running routes against nobody.   The challenge is how does he take a hit, or get off a jam at the line,  or block in the run game.   

Yeah, it’s one thing to run a route and catch a ball in shorts with a bad shoulder. It’s another to run a route and get smacked by that dirty filthy no good meanie Kerby Joseph as the ball arrives.

[buddha]

15 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

Yeah, it’s one thing to run a route and catch a ball in shorts with a bad shoulder. It’s another to run a route and get smacked by that dirty filthy no good meanie Kerby Joseph as the ball arrives.

yeah, but kirby goes for the knees not the shoulders...