PECOTA Hates the Tigers

[casimir]

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

75.6-86.4?  3rd place in the division?  Is Keith Law working for Baseball Prospectus? 

[oblong]

In all seriousness... when you are at the level the Tigers are, mediocre, it doesn't take much to swing one direction or the other.  I could see them getting breaks and winning 90.  I could also see them losing 90.  

 

[RandyMarsh]

Yeah I could see the Tigers winning 90 games if everything goes right and they get lucky with things like 1 run games or runners on base/scoring position. OTOH I wouldn't be shocked if they lost 90 games if luck went south or they have some key injuries. 

 

[Tiger337]

Teams that were supposed to be mediocre make the playoffs every year.  The Tigers have reached the level where they can make it a lot of things go right.  Every good organization should have their team at this level or higher almost every year.  No more "tanks".  

[gehringer_2]

I see a lot of upside surprise potential with the position players, way above average injury risk with the pitching staff, so yeah - they could end up anywhere.

[ben9753]

If Baez doesn't improve dramatically, it's going to be hard to win 90 games. I'm not very optimistic. 

[gehringer_2]

8 minutes ago, ben9753 said:

If Baez doesn't improve dramatically, it's going to be hard to win 90 games. I'm not very optimistic. 

It won't help, but if Javy has the same season he had last yr (0.6 WAR) it's not going to be fatal by itself. The last time the Tigers went to the WS it was with only 1.1 WAR at shortstop (Peralta).  And if he's any worse he'll likely be benched.

Edited February 7 by gehringer_2

[Tigermojo]

Minnesota and Cleveland have many more established players than Detroit. The Tigers still have a lot of question marks on the roster. I don't think Harris has done enough to compete in the Central but the free agent market was really thin.

[Tiger337]

36 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

I see a lot of upside surprise potential with the position players, way above average injury risk with the pitching staff, so yeah - they could end up anywhere.

Lots of pitching upside too, but yes a lot of things could go wrong there.   

[Tenacious D]

F Bill.  He was a crappy utility infielder and now he’s some sort of authority?

[gehringer_2]

So here is the argument to back off and just let Javy be Javy: He has put up an OPS greater than 800 three times in his career, he's averaged 170 Ks in those three seasons. IOW, the argument would be that Javy is his best self when he is swinging away with abandon and in *his* career there is zero evidence that he is better when he Ks less. But clearly, any fool can see he would be a better hitter if he were more selective and shorter to the ball. So what is the right answer?

[SoCalTiger]

2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

So here is the argument to back off and just let Javy be Javy: He has put up an OPS greater than 800 three times in his career, he's averaged 170 Ks in those three seasons. IOW, the argument would be that Javy is his best self when he is swinging away with abandon and in *his* career there is zero evidence that he is better when he Ks less. But clearly, any fool can see he would be a better hitter if he were more selective and shorter to the ball. So what is the right answer?

Let him hack !! The return of "El Mago" will lead us to the playoffs and we ARE winning the Division.  And yes I am serious. Baez was pressing for the opt out. Now he can just chill and hang in the "D" and Hack. 

[RatkoVarda]

29 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

So here is the argument to back off and just let Javy be Javy: He has put up an OPS greater than 800 three times in his career, he's averaged 170 Ks in those three seasons. IOW, the argument would be that Javy is his best self when he is swinging away with abandon and in *his* career there is zero evidence that he is better when he Ks less. But clearly, any fool can see he would be a better hitter if he were more selective and shorter to the ball. So what is the right answer?

trying to turn a successful major league hitter, into a different type of major league hitter has been a disaster

[Tiger337]

49 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

trying to turn a successful major league hitter, into a different type of major league hitter has been a disaster

What did they expect ten years in at age 30?  

Edited February 7 by Tiger337

[Tigermojo]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/six-takeaways-from-our-2024-playoff-odds-release/

The Twins Stand Alone

"It’s really hard to project as having a 50% chance of winning your division. Baseball is inherently volatile and teams are bunched up. Only four teams in the entire majors hit that mark, and three of them are the consensus best three teams in the sport: the Braves, the Dodgers, and the Astros. The fourth is the Twins, who we think would be the fifth-best team in the AL East if everyone played the same schedules.

Here’s the thing, though: the AL Central is awful this year. Dylan Cease and Luis Robert Jr. might still be on the roster, but the White Sox are fast approaching the point where they move past the “trade everything that’s not nailed down” part of their teardown and start trading the nails. The Royals lost 106 games last year, and while we think they’re going to be a lot better in 2024, they’re still a bad team. The Tigers and Guardians are going to struggle to score runs, though both will do a fairly good job of preventing them.

The Twins aren’t exactly the second coming of the 2001 Mariners or the 1927 Yankees. We project them in the bottom half of baseball offensively, though we do love their pitching staff. But when you win your division by nine games and none of your opponents do much to improve their rosters over the winter, it’s easy to come out on top again. At least, that’s what our odds think, and I tend to agree. For what it’s worth, betting markets do too: In perfect agreement with our odds, the Twins are one of only four teams who are more likely than not to win their division."

[casimir]

3 hours ago, Tigermojo said:

Minnesota and Cleveland have many more established players than Detroit. The Tigers still have a lot of question marks on the roster. I don't think Harris has done enough to compete in the Central but the free agent market was really thin.

One of the critiques that I'd heard about PECOTA is that it does tend to have a tighter forecast on players with MLB history as opposed to less complete MLB resumes.  Sure, OK, that seems to make sense in general terms.  The middle infield is projected to be Baez and Keith.  There's more confidence in predicting Baez' end of season stats as opposed to Keith.  Heck, we assume Keith will make the big club, but we don't know that for certain.

As far as Harris and the offseason, I agree, it was a thin free agent market to make gains with.  So, the Tigers might be more reliant on internal/incumbent improvement to make gains than is reasonable if the division crown is the goal.

[gehringer_2]

4 hours ago, Tigermojo said:

But when you win your division by nine games and none of your opponents do much to improve their rosters over the winter,

Casey Mize asking "What am I? Chopped liver?"

Quote

So, the Tigers might be more reliant on internal/incumbent improvement to make gains 

The Tigers are so young that other than Canha and Baez all the other likely  regular position player are still on the upward performance part of their career arc, as opposed to being on the downside. That's going to be a source of greater uncertainty in projection.

Edited February 7 by gehringer_2

[Tiger337]

5 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Casey Mize asking "What am I? Chopped liver?"

Until he starts striking batters out, yes.  

[Edman85]

Ah, the annual tradition of PECOTA spoiling the kool-aid fans have been drinking all offseason.

[Tiger337]

19 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Ah, the annual tradition of PECOTA spoiling the kool-aid fans have been drinking all offseason.

I haven't seen a lot of kool-aid drinking as far as this season goes.  There is optimism about the direction of the team in general.   

[KL2]

57 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Ah, the annual tradition of PECOTA spoiling the kool-aid fans have been drinking all offseason.

Meh. PECOTA got two of 10 playoff teams right last year and had the Diamondbacks at 74 wins. I think we can take anything it says with a MASSIVE grain of salt

[casimir]

58 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Ah, the annual tradition of PECOTA spoiling the kool-aid fans have been drinking all offseason.

The Kool Aid was Honolulu blue.

[Edman85]

FWIW, I remember PECOTA being very very low on Maton heading into last year's season.

Edit: I just looked it up. He actually exceeded his PECOTA last year. I stopped buying their annual, but their website archives their player comments. Last year's on Maton was spot on:

"When Maton hits the ball, he can really hit the ball—he sees four-seamers expertly and crushes them with abandon. The problem, unfortunately, is what happens the rest of the time. He chases breaking balls and off-speed pitches on both sides of the plate, and he strikes out a ton. Thus, he's a much better hitter when he gets ahead in the count, but he tends to fall behind far more often. His defensive versatility is an asset, but he isn't elite at any position. Maton provides flexibility off the bench, but his shortcomings on both sides of the ball prevent him from offering a whole lot more than that."

Edited February 8 by Edman85

[casimir]

19 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

FWIW, I remember PECOTA being very very low on Maton heading into last year's season.

Edit: I just looked it up. He actually exceeded his PECOTA last year. I stopped buying their annual, but their website archives their player comments. Last year's on Maton was spot on:

"When Maton hits the ball, he can really hit the ball—he sees four-seamers expertly and crushes them with abandon. The problem, unfortunately, is what happens the rest of the time. He chases breaking balls and off-speed pitches on both sides of the plate, and he strikes out a ton. Thus, he's a much better hitter when he gets ahead in the count, but he tends to fall behind far more often. His defensive versatility is an asset, but he isn't elite at any position. Maton provides flexibility off the bench, but his shortcomings on both sides of the ball prevent him from offering a whole lot more than that."

Why didn’t you bring this to someone’s attention last season?

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, KL2 said:

Meh. PECOTA got two of 10 playoff teams right last year and had the Diamondbacks at 74 wins. I think we can take anything it says with a MASSIVE grain of salt

We can take any projection with a grain of salt  At least PECOTA and the like are unbiased.  I use them as baselines.  Here is what you can expect to happen if everybody performs to historical norms.  It doesn't stop there though. 

Who do you think will do better or worse in cases where the projection is uncertain.  For example, the projections are usually conservative on young players.  How many wins can the Tigers add if Keith has a breakout season?  How many wins can they add if Flaherty bounces back? It needs to have an unbiased baseline though and I find the projections useful for that.