Red Wings Playoff Tracker 2024

[lordstanley]

Before the Wings play again on Friday, the Capitals will have used up their 2 games in hand:

- Tuesday at Buffalo

- Thursday vs Pittsburgh

The Caps will be favored in both, but if they lose at least one of those then the Wings could tie Washington with a regulation win over them when they play.

Like the Wings, the Flyers are off until Friday.

The Islanders, currently 3 pts behind but with 1 game in hand on the Wings and 3 games in hand on the Flyers, could be ahead of both by Friday because NYI plays two weak opponents:

- Tuesday vs Chicago

- Thursday at Columbus

The Islanders are the one team with whom the Wings are in good shape with respect to the tiebreaker, as the Wings currently lead NYI in regulation wins 26-23.

Edited April 2, 2024 by lordstanley

[lordstanley]

Here are the maximum points each bubble team can achieve if they were to win out:

Washington - 82 pts + 9 games = 100 pts

Detroit - 82 pts + 7 games = 96 pts

Philly - 83 pts + 6 games = 95 pts

NYI - 79 pts + 8 games = 95 pts

Pitt - 77 pts + 8 games = 93 pts

NJ - 76 pts + 8 games = 92 pts

Buff - 75 pts + 7 games = 89 pts

[buddha]

watch out for pittsburgh.

[lordstanley]

Decent news so far ...

Washington trails Buffalo 3-2 starting the 3rd

Chicago leads NYI 1-0 after 2

NJ leads Pitt 3-1 in the 2nd (mostly indifferent who wins that, just prefer it not to go into OT - both teams are on last gasp though)

[lordstanley]

8 hours ago, buddha said:

watch out for pittsburgh.

Yeah, they now lead NJ 5-3 and if  the beat Washington on Thursday they’d be within 1 pt of the Wings. NJ winning tonight would have been better, because they’re a point behind Pittsburgh and play the tough Rangers next. 

Edited April 3, 2024 by lordstanley

[lordstanley]

Getting a bit bunched up. Washington loses, NYI wins, Pittsburgh wins, NJ loses.

5 teams for 2 spots - Washington, Philly, Detroit, NYI, Pittsburgh.

[lordstanley]

Breather tonight. No super meaningful games on tap. I guess we should still hope for NJ to lose to the Rangers, but with the Devils 6 pts back of the Wings and having only 7 games left to play, they're not much of a factor. The Devils would have to win out just to hit 90 points, and I don't think that will cut it.

[lordstanley]

7 hours ago, lordstanley said:

Breather tonight. No super meaningful games on tap. I guess we should still hope for NJ to lose to the Rangers, but with the Devils 6 pts back of the Wings and having only 7 games left to play, they're not much of a factor. The Devils would have to win out just to hit 90 points, and I don't think that will cut it.

Devils lose. 76 points with 6 games to go, maximum of 88 possible. They're done. They don't even need to be tracked anymore.

[lordstanley]

Midway through the 3rd period in both of tonight's key games, the Isles are up on CBJ 3-2 and Pittsburgh is up on Washington 3-1. IF those results we'd have:

- NYI and Philly with 83 points, both with 6 games to play

- Washington and Detroit with 82 points, both with 7 games to play

- Pittsburgh with 81 points, 6 games to play.

[lordstanley]

Essentially a 5-team play-in tournament for 2 spots, with each team getting 6 or 7 games. The Wings and:

- Philadelphia, defeated by Detroit in ‘97 Cup final
- Washington, defeated by Detroit in ‘98 Cup final
- NYI, coached by Patrick Roy who was yanked from Game 7 blowout as Wings advanced to ‘02 Cup final
- Pittsburgh, defeated by Detroit in ‘08 Cup final (before robbing Wings in ‘09)

[Shinzaki]

Watched the Pens game on ESPN+.  They looked pretty good...pretty pretty good

[lordstanley]

1 hour ago, Shinzaki said:

Watched the Pens game on ESPN+.  They looked pretty good...pretty pretty good

Buddha knows. Points in their past 10 games:

- Pittsburgh 14

- Washington 11

- Detroit 10 

- NYI 10

- Buffalo 10 

- New Jersey 8

- Philadelphia 7

 

[buddha]

4 hours ago, lordstanley said:

Buddha knows. Points in their past 10 games:

- Pittsburgh 14

- Washington 11

- Detroit 10 

- NYI 10

- Buffalo 10 

- New Jersey 8

- Philadelphia 7

 

i hate them so much, but i think tjey're the favorites.

[lordstanley]

The Wings have been handed a gift, in the form of mediocre play by the rest of the bubble teams, but are blowing it. 13 losses in 17 games. At 82 points, they'd be 9 points out of the last playoff spot in the West, held by LA with 91. That's why they better make it this year. If they don't re-sign Kane (I think they will) and if the playoff cut line goes back to a more normal 95 points or so next year, it won't be any easier.

[1984Echoes]

On 4/2/2024 at 12:46 PM, buddha said:

watch out for pittsburgh.

The problem for the Pens is their remaining schedule:

Tampa Bay at home.

At Toronto.

Detroit,

then Boston,

then Nashville at home.

At New York Rangers.

 

Aside from Detroit, that's a bit of a murderer's row so I think their actual chances for the playoffs are pretty dismal. The Islanders play a similar type of schedule their last games.

If either or both of those two make the playoffs... 

They've earned it.

[1984Echoes]

3 hours ago, lordstanley said:

The Wings have been handed a gift, in the form of mediocre play by the rest of the bubble teams, but are blowing it. 13 losses in 17 games. At 82 points, they'd be 9 points out of the last playoff spot in the West, held by LA with 91. That's why they better make it this year. If they don't re-sign Kane (I think they will) and if the playoff cut line goes back to a more normal 95 points or so next year, it won't be any easier.

They need fresh, youthful, blood and speed and size and vigor, IMO.

But I'm OK with them trying to re-sign Kane for another 2 years...

[lordstanley]

Crosby with his 40th today to give the Penguins a 1-0 lead over Tampa. That’s the 3rd most he has ever scored in his career. 

 

[buddha]

2 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

The problem for the Pens is their remaining schedule:

Tampa Bay at home.

At Toronto.

Detroit,

then Boston,

then Nashville at home.

At New York Rangers.

 

Aside from Detroit, that's a bit of a murderer's row so I think their actual chances for the playoffs are pretty dismal. The Islanders play a similar type of schedule their last games.

If either or both of those two make the playoffs... 

They've earned it.

theyre playing better than any of the other teams and they have the best players.

[1984Echoes]

19 minutes ago, buddha said:

theyre playing better than any of the other teams and they have the best players.

"Proof is in the pudding", but the Pens are trouncing Tampa today at 4-1 after 2 periods...

[lordstanley]

35 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

"Proof is in the pudding", but the Pens are trouncing Tampa today at 4-1 after 2 periods...

Have blown that lead. 4-4 with 9 minutes left in the 3rd.

[lordstanley]

Pittsburgh breaks the tie with around 5 minutes to go, then survives a 6 on 4 for the final minute and a half to win. They now move up to 83 points along with NYI and Philadelphia. Wings and Caps at 82 points.

[lordstanley]

By my calculation, 4 wins out of 5 will be mathematically enough for the Wings IF two of those wins are in regulation over Washington and Pittsburgh. No matter what the rest of the teams do in their other games.

EDIT: Oops, that's only true if the Caps drop at least point today to Ottawa.

Edited April 7, 2024 by lordstanley

[buddha]

34 minutes ago, lordstanley said:

By my calculation, 4 wins out of 5 will be mathematically enough for the Wings IF two of those wins are in regulation over Washington and Pittsburgh. No matter what the rest of the teams do in their other games.

EDIT: Oops, that's only true if the Caps drop at least point today to Ottawa.

they have left themselves no wiggle room.  they have to beat pittsburgh and washington.  must win games.

[lordstanley]

19 minutes ago, buddha said:

they have left themselves no wiggle room.  they have to beat pittsburgh and washington.  must win games.

Right. That would get them to 88. And it is unlikely they will pick up a point in Toronto. So would still leave them probably having to get 3 out of 4 points from Montreal to end the season. Interestingly, NYI plays Penguins the final night of the East's season, the Wednesday, a day after the Wings' Tuesday finale. The Caps-Flyers wrap up their season on the Tuesday too, playing each other.  Could be a scenario the Wednesday night where both the Isles and Pens are in with a point each - pass it around for 60 minutes a la Germany-Austria '82? 

[lordstanley]

Caps tied with Ottawa 2-2 with 2 minutes to go.