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1 minute ago, Tenacious D said:

He’s not leaving New York.  The Mets will drive up his price, and he’ll choose between them and staying with the Yankees.

No way the Yankees let the Mets steal Soto, and besides, there's nothing in it for Soto to leave the Yankees. Extra money? He'll already be on his way to being a billionaire by staying, and in the wider baseball world, Yankees >>> Mets, Yankees >>> Dodgers, Yankees >>>> Red Sox, Yankees >>>>> Cubs, and Yankees >>>>>>>>>> any other team.

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6 hours ago, chasfh said:

I wouldn’t doubt we see Jobe coming out of camp. You just know he’s going to have a relatively focused and intense winter. No chilling out in the islands for weeks on end for this guy. This is the paying dues portion of his young career.

I don’t think Montero is ever going to be more than just Mr. Right Now. There’s a good chance Mize ends up as Mr. What Could Have Been. Mazda might be simply done. 

I’m with you on the rest of your March-April rotation.

The other part of the innings build up with young Detroit pitchers is that now playoff innings might actually be a reasonable guesstimated part of the calculation. So what does that look like for Jobe?  What is the maximum workload the Tigers will allow?  Do they assume a certain number of those could be playoff innings?  Is there a premium for those higher stress innings vs a random Tuesday night start against Pittsburgh?

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10 minutes ago, casimir said:

The other part of the innings build up with young Detroit pitchers is that now playoff innings might actually be a reasonable guesstimated part of the calculation. So what does that look like for Jobe?  What is the maximum workload the Tigers will allow?  Do they assume a certain number of those could be playoff innings?  Is there a premium for those higher stress innings vs a random Tuesday night start against Pittsburgh?

That matters only if he’s a top four starter, especially top three. Do we expect that?

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18 minutes ago, chasfh said:

You think Jobe will the #2 starter over Reese and two free agent pickups?

I said he could be the #2 starter right now.  Olson didn't seem to be making a great recovery from his shoulder injury and nobody else was asserting themselves as a #2.  I will evaluate the new acquisitions when they happen.  

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1 hour ago, chasfh said:

That matters only if he’s a top four starter, especially top three. Do we expect that?

No, probably not.  It depends on what the rotation looks like at the end of March.

At the same time, do we expect the top four to be healthy come playoff time?   Jobe might be a top four healthy and available starter then.

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8 minutes ago, casimir said:

No, probably not.  It depends on what the rotation looks like at the end of March.

At the same time, do we expect the top four to be healthy come playoff time?   Jobe might be a top four healthy and available starter then.

Yes, pitching staffs are very fluid, especially Tigers pitching staffs.  The top four starters on April 1 could be very different than the top 4 on October 1 and Jobe could be part of either group or both.  

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1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

I said he could be the #2 starter right now.  Olson didn't seem to be making a great recovery from his shoulder injury and nobody else was asserting themselves as a #2.  I will evaluate the new acquisitions when they happen.  

Ah I see. Well, we’re not playing right now. 😁

I think it’s probable Jobe could come in as the #4 guy, other things being equal and assuming row FA/trade pickups. 

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1 hour ago, casimir said:

No, probably not.  It depends on what the rotation looks like at the end of March.

At the same time, do we expect the top four to be healthy come playoff time?   Jobe might be a top four healthy and available starter then.

Health is always a wild card for a team. We were really lucky down the stretch that we didn’t lose anybody. Seriously, after Javy went down, almost nobody else went down. Wenceel—that was it. Once Riley came back, we had all our bullets. Not even a pitcher went out! No way can we expect that next year. 

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Just now, monkeytargets39 said:

If Jobe gets to #2 status at any point next year that’d be gravy—-but we definitely need to bring in someone to be a #2 and possibly a 4/5 guy.

Hopefully, that would be because Jobe takes a Paul Skenes-type step forward instead of all the other pitchers dropping like flies!
 

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1 minute ago, chasfh said:

Hopefully, that would be because Jobe takes a Paul Skenes-type step forward instead of all the other pitchers dropping like flies!
 

Well yeah that’s what I was going for.

Its pretty optimistic that he will ascend that quickly, so my current assumption is that he either starts as a #5 and we occasionally have him act as an opener in certain matchups, or he starts in Toledo and is the call up once someone is injured or isn’t performing.  


Expecting more out of him than that isn’t being realistic and hopefully Harris and Co operate this offseason as though they need to acquire 2 more SP options.

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5 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Hopefully, that would be because Jobe takes a Paul Skenes-type step forward instead of all the other pitchers dropping like flies!
 

Well yeah that’s what I was going for.

Its pretty optimistic that he will ascend that quickly, so my current assumption is that he either starts as a #5 and we occasionally have him act as an opener in certain matchups, or he starts in Toledo and is the call up once someone is injured or isn’t performing.  


Expectimore out of him than that isn’t being realistic and hopefully Harris and Co operate this offseason as though they need to acquire 2 more SP options.

Edited by monkeytargets39
So good you read it twice
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10 hours ago, chasfh said:

No way the Yankees let the Mets steal Soto, and besides, there's nothing in it for Soto to leave the Yankees. Extra money? He'll already be on his way to being a billionaire by staying, and in the wider baseball world, Yankees >>> Mets, Yankees >>> Dodgers, Yankees >>>> Red Sox, Yankees >>>>> Cubs, and Yankees >>>>>>>>>> any other team.

Not an expert on payrolls, but isn’t the Yankees already insane with Judge, Stanton, Cole, Rizzo, LeMahieu, Rodon, etc?  Will they take an unlimited salary cap approach?

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9 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

Not an expert on payrolls, but isn’t the Yankees already insane with Judge, Stanton, Cole, Rizzo, LeMahieu, Rodon, etc?  Will they take an unlimited salary cap approach?

I just don’t know how they would justify to their worldwide fan base not re-signing him. Nobody seems to be waving the payroll red flag when they talk about their reuniting this winter.

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14 hours ago, monkeytargets39 said:

If Jobe gets to #2 status at any point next year that’d be gravy—-but we definitely need to bring in someone to be a #2 and possibly a 4/5 guy.

 

I feel good about Olson as a #3, and then whichever of Mize/Maeda/Montero/Hurter looks the best in spring to be a #5

I think this is a reasonable expectation.

Skubal / FA #2 / Reese / Jobe / Mize, with Montero / Hurter as rotation depth-long men. 

And while reasonable, I still have some heartburn over that being our likely approach heading into next year. 

I'm not sold on Reese as of yet, so next year will be critical for his development. And I'm definitely not counting on Mize, but I see them giving him one more chance to remain healthy / consistent.

My other concern is the weak FA pitching options. Assuming Burnes / Cole / Snell are not options, that leaves a lot of guys with question marks. I think I'd maybe target a 3-year deal for someone like Fried or Severino.

Edited by ICroupier
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