2024 DETROIT TIGERS REGULAR SEASON THREAD

[casimir]

3 minutes ago, oblong said:

I would be mildly disappointed but not really surprised as most hitters drafted will not be as good as Rob Deer. 

I didn't realize how many walks he drew.  Career 12.7% BB% vs 8.7% league average.

[casimir]

I know quality start is a somewhat debatable stat.  But, the Tigers are currently 5th in MLB at 47%.  League average is 37%.

[Tiger337]

The average career WAR for picks 1-5 is 13.3.  The average WAR for the #1 pick is probably higher (can't find a recent #) but it's also likely inflated by a small number of elite players and so far there doesn't appear one of those from the 2020 draft.  So, I would agree with Oblong that I'd be mildly disappointed if Tork ended up like Rob Deer, but it wouldn't be outside the expected performance for a high pick.  Tony Clark was another one like that.  

https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-sports-analytics/jsa200586

Edited May 11 by Tiger337

[casimir]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

The average career WAR for picks 1-5 is 13.3.  The average WAR for the #1 pick is probably higher (can't find a recent #) but it's also likely inflated by a small number of elite players and so far there doesn't appear one of those from the 2020 draft.  So, I would agree with Oblong that I'd be mildly disappointed if Tork ended up like Rob Deer, but it wouldn't be outside the expected performance for a high pick.  Tony Clark was another one like that.  

https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-sports-analytics/jsa200586

Per bbref:

1-1: 58 matching player(s). 54 played in the majors (93%). Total of 1149.1 WAR, or 21.3 per major leaguer.  (Danny Goodwin drafted 1-1 twice).

1-2: 59 matching player(s). 52 played in the majors (88%). Total of 762.6 WAR, or 14.7 per major leaguer.

1-3: 59 matching player(s). 48 played in the majors (81%). Total of 652.7 WAR, or 13.6 per major leaguer.

1-4: 59 matching player(s). 48 played in the majors (81%). Total of 603.9 WAR, or 12.6 per major leaguer.

1-5: 59 matching player(s). 40 played in the majors (67%). Total of 444.1 WAR, or 11.1 per major leaguer.

1-6: 59 matching player(s). 45 played in the majors (76%). Total of 618.2 WAR, or 13.7 per major leaguer.

1-7: 59 matching player(s). 43 played in the majors (72%). Total of 460.9 WAR, or 10.7 per major leaguer.

1-8: 58 matching player(s). 38 played in the majors (65%). Total of 319.2 WAR, or 8.4 per major leaguer.  (Wade Townsend drafted 1-8 twice).

1-9: 59 matching player(s). 38 played in the majors (64%). Total of 316.6 WAR, or 8.3 per major leaguer.

1-10: 59 matching player(s). 48 played in the majors (81%). Total of 500.8 WAR, or 10.4 per major leaguer.

[chasfh]

18 hours ago, Toddwert said:

does anyone remember Deano?

I definitely remember Deano. Met him during Tigers Fantasy Camp in 2007. Great guy, salt of the earth. You can talk to him about anything, and we basically did.

[chasfh]

5 hours ago, oblong said:

I would be mildly disappointed but not really surprised as most hitters drafted will not be as good as Rob Deer. 

I would be more than mildly disappointed because Tork was a consensus 1/1, and we all expected better, much better, than a coin flip career from him.

I’m coming around to the idea that Tork may not amount to anything after all, and by now I won’t be surprised if that’s the outcome. But I would still be sorely disappointed because, after all, we tanked like a mother****ing anchor to get the guy in the first place.

[Tiger337]

3 hours ago, casimir said:

Per bbref:

1-1: 58 matching player(s). 54 played in the majors (93%). Total of 1149.1 WAR, or 21.3 per major leaguer.  (Danny Goodwin drafted 1-1 twice).

1-2: 59 matching player(s). 52 played in the majors (88%). Total of 762.6 WAR, or 14.7 per major leaguer.

1-3: 59 matching player(s). 48 played in the majors (81%). Total of 652.7 WAR, or 13.6 per major leaguer.

1-4: 59 matching player(s). 48 played in the majors (81%). Total of 603.9 WAR, or 12.6 per major leaguer.

1-5: 59 matching player(s). 40 played in the majors (67%). Total of 444.1 WAR, or 11.1 per major leaguer.

1-6: 59 matching player(s). 45 played in the majors (76%). Total of 618.2 WAR, or 13.7 per major leaguer.

1-7: 59 matching player(s). 43 played in the majors (72%). Total of 460.9 WAR, or 10.7 per major leaguer.

1-8: 58 matching player(s). 38 played in the majors (65%). Total of 319.2 WAR, or 8.4 per major leaguer.  (Wade Townsend drafted 1-8 twice).

1-9: 59 matching player(s). 38 played in the majors (64%). Total of 316.6 WAR, or 8.3 per major leaguer.

1-10: 59 matching player(s). 48 played in the majors (81%). Total of 500.8 WAR, or 10.4 per major leaguer.

Thanks, you are turning into my go to guy in this thread.    

[Tiger337]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

I would be more than mildly disappointed because Tork was a consensus 1/1, and we all expected better, much better, than a coin flip career from him.

I’m coming around to the idea that Tork may not amount to anything after all, and by now I won’t be surprised if that’s the outcome. But I would still be sorely disappointed because, after all, we tanked like a mother****ing anchor to get the guy in the first place.

He isdisappointing individuslly so far, but when you rely primarily on a bunch of high draft picks to re-build, you can expect to be disappointed by one or more of them.  Mize has a long way to go too.   Green is certainly looking like someone who will give them a high WAR return and Skubal is already a steal for a 9th round pick.  

[TigerNation]

2 hours ago, chasfh said:

I would be more than mildly disappointed because Tork was a consensus 1/1, and we all expected better, much better, than a coin flip career from him.

I’m coming around to the idea that Tork may not amount to anything after all, and by now I won’t be surprised if that’s the outcome. But I would still be sorely disappointed because, after all, we tanked like a mother****ing anchor to get the guy in the first place.

Definitely more than a little annoying that the consensus #1 picks in our drafts were Mize and Torkelson while the O's consensus #1 picks were Rutschman and Holliday.

[gehringer_2]

9 minutes ago, TigerNation said:

Definitely more than a little annoying that the consensus #1 picks in our drafts were Mize and Torkelson while the O's consensus #1 picks were Rutschman and Holliday.

2019 was a quite the 1st round. 5 of the top 20 have already made an all-star team plus Riley, who has a good shot to.

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

He isdisappointing individuslly so far, but when you rely primarily on a bunch of high draft picks to re-build, you can expect to be disappointed by one or more of them.  Mize has a long way to go too.   Green is certainly looking like someone who will give them a high WAR return and Skubal is already a steal for a 9th round pick.  

We need to keep running down Tork. He's on his 1st 5 game hitting streak of the season.

[theroundsquare]

30 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

We need to keep running down Tork. He's on his 1st 5 game hitting streak of the season.

**** that guy, he sucks!

[oblong]

5 hours ago, chasfh said:

I would be more than mildly disappointed because Tork was a consensus 1/1, and we all expected better, much better, than a coin flip career from him.

I’m coming around to the idea that Tork may not amount to anything after all, and by now I won’t be surprised if that’s the outcome. But I would still be sorely disappointed because, after all, we tanked like a mother****ing anchor to get the guy in the first place.

But I view that as simply fate.  It wasn’t a Matt Bush vs Justin Verlander situation and my team guessed wrong on who to pick.   I save my disappointment for times when someone didn’t execute or do their work.  In this case the Tigers couldn’t have done anything different.  Draft picks are lottery tickets and our scratch off paid out $2. 

[chasfh]

19 minutes ago, oblong said:

But I view that as simply fate.  It wasn’t a Matt Bush vs Justin Verlander situation and my team guessed wrong on who to pick.   I save my disappointment for times when someone didn’t execute or do their work.  In this case the Tigers couldn’t have done anything different.  Draft picks are lottery tickets and our scratch off paid out $2. 

I disagree that a 1/1 draft pick is no better than a lottery ticket. There have been disappointing and even spectacular failures at 1/1 for a lot of teams, not just the Tigers (Matt Anderson, anyone?), as at any other pick. But the hit rate on 1/1 picks is good enough that I think it’s reasonable to be disappointed if Tork craps out with a 0.0 WAR career—meaning, for the part of his career he spends with the Tigers.

Now, the 9th pick in the 2018 draft? Definitely a lottery ticket that came through.

Edited May 11 by chasfh

[Tiger337]

53 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I disagree that a 1/1 draft pick is no better than a lottery ticket. There have been disappointing and even spectacular failures at 1/1 for a lot of teams, not just the Tigers (Matt Anderson, anyone?), as at any other pick. But the hit rate on 1/1 picks is good enough that I think it’s reasonable to be disappointed if Tork craps out with a 0.0 WAR career—meaning, for the part of his career he spends with the Tigers.

Now, the 9th pick in the 2018 draft? Definitely a lottery ticket that came through.

Thr question was not 0 WAR, but 13 WAR like Deer.  Tony Clark was in the same class.  

Edited May 11 by Tiger337

[oblong]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

I disagree that a 1/1 draft pick is no better than a lottery ticket. There have been disappointing and even spectacular failures at 1/1 for a lot of teams, not just the Tigers (Matt Anderson, anyone?), as at any other pick. But the hit rate on 1/1 picks is good enough that I think it’s reasonable to be disappointed if Tork craps out with a 0.0 WAR career—meaning, for the part of his career he spends with the Tigers.

Now, the 9th pick in the 2018 draft? Definitely a lottery ticket that came through.

 But who else should they have taken? Maybe we are arguing semantics.  Someone earlier used the word “annoying” by comparing it to Baltimore’s 1:1 fortunes  and I agree with that.  You are at the mercy of the players in that draft.  For me to use the word disappointment would mean someone made a poor decision.  I don’t see that here with Tork.  

[CMRivdogs]

43 minutes ago, oblong said:

 But who else should they have taken? Maybe we are arguing semantics.  Someone earlier used the word “annoying” by comparing it to Baltimore’s 1:1 fortunes  and I agree with that.  You are at the mercy of the players in that draft.  For me to use the word disappointment would mean someone made a poor decision.  I don’t see that here with Tork.  

Pitcher Spencer Strider went to Atlanta in the 4th round. None of the top 10 picks in the 2020 draft have really panned out. Top batters Kjerstad, Austin Martin, Nick Gonzalez, Robert Hassell III, Zac Veen,

Patrick Bailey looks like he's having a decent start this season with a 1.1 WAR..675 OPS

[casimir]

7 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

Thanks, you are turning into my go to guy in this thread.    

Is “go to guy” code for “research donkey”?

[chasfh]

13 hours ago, oblong said:

 But who else should they have taken? Maybe we are arguing semantics.  Someone earlier used the word “annoying” by comparing it to Baltimore’s 1:1 fortunes  and I agree with that.  You are at the mercy of the players in that draft.  For me to use the word disappointment would mean someone made a poor decision.  I don’t see that here with Tork.  

There was no one else. Spork was the consensus #1 pick, and no one would have not picked him, including me. And the Orioles did have better luck picking during the drafts they did instead of during ours. I will still be disappointed if he ends up around replacement level for his career with the Tigers, because it’s disappointing versus the expectation we had.

To Tiger337’s point, if the benchmark is that Spork ends up with a 13 win career, I would want those 13 wins to come with us, and not after he leaves, which would be a double disappointment. I think you know me well enough to know I had no expectations of a Hall of Fame career from the guy, given his already-well-known defensive liabilities, as well as the positional WAR ceiling first baseman already have. But he was considered practically a fully-formed hitter when we got him, and I did have a reasonable expectation that he would anchor our lineup at some point, and I would have expected him to at least start doing so by the early months of his third season. So maybe the disappointment at his inability to do even that is driving my fear that he will have thrown up a goose egg by the time Scott Boras takes him on the road.

[Tiger337]

16 minutes ago, chasfh said:

There was no one else. Spork was the consensus #1 pick, and no one would have not picked him, including me. And the Orioles did have better luck picking during the drafts they did instead of during ours. I will still be disappointed if he ends up around replacement level for his career with the Tigers, because it’s disappointing versus the expectation we had.

To Tiger337’s point, if the benchmark is that Spork ends up with a 13 win career, I would want those 13 wins to come with us, and not after he leaves, which would be a double disappointment. I think you know me well enough to know I had no expectations of a Hall of Fame career from the guy, given his already-well-known defensive liabilities, as well as the positional WAR ceiling first baseman already have. But he was considered practically a fully-formed hitter when we got him, and I did have a reasonable expectation that he would anchor our lineup at some point, and I would have expected him to at least start doing so by the early months of his third season. So maybe the disappointment at his inability to do even that is driving my fear that he will have thrown up a goose egg by the time Scott Boras takes him on the road.

He has been a disappointment so far, but would you be disappointed if he turned out like Tony Clark who accumulated almost all of his WAR with the Tigers?  

[chasfh]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

He has been a disappointment so far, but would you be disappointed if he turned out like Tony Clark who accumulated almost all of his WAR with the Tigers?  

If you would have asked me that in 2019, I might have said yes, I’d be disappointed. I would have wanted more out of a 1/1, after all the losing done specifically to pick him, and despite whatever the averages say for 1/1s, I would have wanted something more than 13 wins out of Spork.

Ask me that now, though, and I’m probably less disappointed, because if he ends up with 12.2 WAR when he leaves after the 2028 season, that would mean gets almost 14 WAR between now and then, in just short of five full seasons, which is pushing 3 per season, which would probably include a 4 or a 5 in there somewhere, which might entail an All-Star selection, and at that point, I’d have to say I’d be happy with that, just in time for him to leave us and go kill it in a DH-only role for somebody else.

Which does bring up a question: if he were taken off the field completely, would his mind be freed up enough f-r-o-m the stress of worrying about his defense that he would become the hitter everyone assumed he would be? That would surely be the best outcome for him personally, and as things stand now that’s the kind of player we have no room for on this team.

Edited May 12 by chasfh

[HeyAbbott]

On 5/10/2024 at 4:09 PM, Toddwert said:

would you rather Dave Kingman, Joey Gallo or Mark Reynolds?

I think Rob Deer is too generous for Tork. I think where his career WAR is right now, Ray Oyler would be a better comparison.

[Toddwert]

https://twitter.com/DetroitTigersPR/status/1790124725831639406

The Tigers have made the following roster moves:

• Optioned INF/OF Ryan Vilade to Triple A Toledo

• Placed RHP Shelby Miller on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to May 12, with ulnar nerve inflammation

• Recalled RHP's Beau Brieske and Matt Manning from Triple A Toledo

[gehringer_2]

Maeda, now Miller. Seems Foley is likely to be next. Were we talking about trading pitching for bats in another thread? Silly us.

[Sports_Freak]

It really wouldn't surprise me if Manning gets dealt soon. Several (more?) teams need pitching. I hope we can find a team with a ML ready shortstop being blocked. Trade Javy and pick up most of his contract, if they must?