2024 DETROIT TIGERS REGULAR SEASON THREAD

[SoCalTiger]

25 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

SSS, but Kreidler and Leonard are both struggling at Lakeland in rehab assignments. Kreidler has been really bad.

Kreidler can't hit and Leonard can't play shortstop and maybe can't hit either. They are not the answer.

[casimir]

1 hour ago, RatkoVarda said:

SSS, but Kreidler and Leonard are both struggling at Lakeland in rehab assignments. Kreidler has been really bad.

And this is probably why Kennedy found himself with the Tigers.  There wasn't any SS depth in Toledo early in the season due to Kreider and Leonard getting injured at about the same time.

[chasfh]

5 hours ago, SoCalTiger said:

Kreidler can't hit and Leonard can't play shortstop and maybe can't hit either. They are not the answer.

Exactly. Kreidler's role on the Tigers would be stopgap until we were to get someone permanent there, and there's a good chance he won't be as good as even Javy today is.

[SoCalTiger]

50 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Exactly. Kreidler's role on the Tigers would be stopgap until we were to get someone permanent there, and there's a good chance he won't be as good as even Javy today is.

 Javy is huge disappointment for sure but he does have value over and beyond the numbers. Defense, base running tags and he actually hits better with runners in scoring position. No reason to eat that contract.

[chasfh]

3 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

 Javy is huge disappointment for sure but he does have value over and beyond the numbers. Defense, base running tags and he actually hits better with runners in scoring position. No reason to eat that contract.

No reason to eat it, like, ever? Or just today on June 4, 2024? Because I agree with that latter, if for no other reason then we have no one in-house whom we know is better.

As for value on defense and baserunning, yes, he probably has positive value on both, but sometimes that's not enough to overcome truly execrable hitting, and all parts of the game are additive in terms of what it means to wins.

The problem is, Javy may not have as much of either going for him as we think. B-R has him at 0.2 dWAR so far this year, and Fangraphs actually has him as a -0.1, with minus-1 defensive runs saved and minus-2 outs above average, mostly because of his throwing woes, but also, the ball is clanking off his glove too much. I know FPCT is a discredited statistic, but he is no better than middle of the pack in it, for what that's worth. I understand it's hard to believe Javy even might be a minus defender, because he makes such visually spectacular plays, but remember how Derek Jeter compiled a historic highlight reel of appealing defensive plays, and he was still one of the worst everyday defenders at shortstop in the game.

As for baserunning, again, take this for what it's worth, but Fangraphs has Javy at 55th of 155 qualifiers in XBR, which is Statcast baserunning above average, putting him behind Riley Greene, Matt Vierling—and Mark Canha, believe it nor not. Javy is above the fold, yes, but not by as much as we might imagine he would be.

Add it all up, and if we had a better alternative ready to go, I would conclude that Javy Baez's defense and baserunning would not be enough to keep him employed here for much longer.

 

[casimir]

Baez will be gone before his contract ends.  I don’t think that’s much of a stretch.

[SoCalTiger]

1 hour ago, chasfh said:

No reason to eat it, like, ever? Or just today on June 4, 2024? Because I agree with that latter, if for no other reason then we have no one in-house whom we know is better.

As for value on defense and baserunning, yes, he probably has positive value on both, but sometimes that's not enough to overcome truly execrable hitting, and all parts of the game are additive in terms of what it means to wins.

The problem is, Javy may not have as much of either going for him as we think. B-R has him at 0.2 dWAR so far this year, and Fangraphs actually has him as a -0.1, with minus-1 defensive runs saved and minus-2 outs above average, mostly because of his throwing woes, but also, the ball is clanking off his glove too much. I know FPCT is a discredited statistic, but he is no better than middle of the pack in it, for what that's worth. I understand it's hard to believe Javy even might be a minus defender, because he makes such visually spectacular plays, but remember how Derek Jeter compiled a historic highlight reel of appealing defensive plays, and he was still one of the worst everyday defenders at shortstop in the game.

As for baserunning, again, take this for what it's worth, but Fangraphs has Javy at 55th of 155 qualifiers in XBR, which is Statcast baserunning above average, putting him behind Riley Greene, Matt Vierling—and Mark Canha, believe it nor not. Javy is above the fold, yes, but not by as much as we might imagine he would be.

Add it all up, and if we had a better alternative ready to go, I would conclude that Javy Baez's defense and baserunning would not be enough to keep him employed here for much longer.

 

I was told there wouldn't be any math or facts. Kidding aside the main point, as you say, we have zero options. 

[casimir]

Don't look now, but the Tigers are only 2 1/2 games out of the wild card.

Oh, you looked at it, didn't you?

[Motor City Sonics]

Tigers need to start thinking about possible futures at first base in case Tork really does go bust.    It seems as if they have nothing and I am under the impression that Mark Canha is not part of the plan for next year.    

With 2 catchers on the roster that they like, they have a third who is now hitting .306 with an OPS of .860 at Toledo, a guy they drafted in the 2nd round, right, right behind Tork?    If he is seemingly blocked at Catcher,  would it make sense to start to get the guy some PT at first base?     He's got the frame at 6' 2" and 210.    If the Tork Tank continues,  they need to start considering something else.      The Eric Munson comparisons only become more legit.  

[RatkoVarda]

a large amount of Dingler's perceived ML value is tied to his defense at C. It would be shocking if he can hit well enough to play 1b. But uber-athletic, so he could do it with the glove. 

[gehringer_2]

35 minutes ago, casimir said:

Don't look now, but the Tigers are only 2 1/2 games out of the wild card.

Oh, you looked at it, didn't you?

funny how things go. The West division is weak enough this season that you don't need to win the Central to get a playoff spot.

[Tenacious D]

I think the solution with our catchers is to flip one for a position of need, i.e., 1B or SS.  The Cubs are in desperate need of a catcher upgrade and would probably love Rogers, but I didn’t see a logical trade opportunity while perusing their MLB, AAA and AA rosters.

[casimir]

35 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Tigers need to start thinking about possible futures at first base in case Tork really does go bust.    It seems as if they have nothing and I am under the impression that Mark Canha is not part of the plan for next year.    

With 2 catchers on the roster that they like, they have a third who is now hitting .306 with an OPS of .860 at Toledo, a guy they drafted in the 2nd round, right, right behind Tork?    If he is seemingly blocked at Catcher,  would it make sense to start to get the guy some PT at first base?     He's got the frame at 6' 2" and 210.    If the Tork Tank continues,  they need to start considering something else.      The Eric Munson comparisons only become more legit.  

Kelly is a free agent this offseason.  Dingler isn't really blocked beyond this season.

[Motor City Sonics]

21 minutes ago, casimir said:

Kelly is a free agent this offseason.  Dingler isn't really blocked beyond this season.

I have a feeling they are going to extend Kelly - they love the guy.  

Since April 28th Dingler  .388 BA   .414 OBP  1.076 OPS  5 HR  18 RBI in 21 games

Even against Triple A pitching, that's pretty impressive

They have to give him a look, right?   Even at DH  (and since AJ puts one of the Catchers at DH, having 3 would not be the worst thing.        Since Malloy really can't field, maybe they take a look at Dingler soon.   

[Tigeraholic1]

43 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

funny how things go. The West division is weak enough this season that you don't need to win the Central to get a playoff spot.

Heading into mid June within shouting distance makes the season fun to follow.

[casimir]

7 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

I have a feeling they are going to extend Kelly - they love the guy.  

Since April 28th Dingler  .388 BA   .414 OBP  1.076 OPS  5 HR  18 RBI in 21 games

Even against Triple A pitching, that's pretty impressive

They have to give him a look, right?   Even at DH  (and since AJ puts one of the Catchers at DH, having 3 would not be the worst thing.        Since Malloy really can't field, maybe they take a look at Dingler soon.   

The Tigers never had a 3rd C called up due to injury last season, and have not had one yet this season.  It seems impossible to not have that extend throughout the duration of this season.  I don't wish for it, but its likely to happen this season.

They'll have one of Rogers/Kelly as the primary C next season and Dingler as the other C next season.

[Hongbit]

12 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

Heading into mid June within shouting distance makes the season fun to follow.

Thinking about being able to start Tarik Skubal in a potential a wild card game is exciting too.  

[theroundsquare]

I think the possible future at 1B is Colt Keith

[Motor City Sonics]

10 minutes ago, theroundsquare said:

I think the possible future at 1B is Colt Keith

We're already writing off Tork

 

I hope a situation happens where he proves us wrong and comes here tells us all to eat ****. 

[Tigermojo]

27 minutes ago, theroundsquare said:

I think the possible future at 1B is Colt Keith

Or Jung.

[theroundsquare]

I'm not totally writing him off.  I was rooting for him, but I have suffered a profound loss of confidence that he is going to be able to do it.  But if we're talking about an alternative, I think Colt is it.  I could see Jung, too, tho.

[casimir]

41 minutes ago, theroundsquare said:

I'm not totally writing him off.  I was rooting for him, but I have suffered a profound loss of confidence that he is going to be able to do it.  But if we're talking about an alternative, I think Colt is it.  I could see Jung, too, tho.

I think there are internal options for 1B long term.  I wouldn't exclude bringing someone else in, but I don't think that's a priority right now.

To the original point of moving one of the 3 Cs on the 40 to 1B and/or DH, I don't see the point in it.  Malloy is a DH.  Canha, Urshela, and Ibanez have 1B experience.  Keith and/or Jung could eventually be moved there.  And despite Dingler banging it around recently in AAA, its tough to assume that carries up to MLB pitching.

Late add:  And I don't think Torkelson should be written off just yet.

Edited June 5, 2024 by casimir

[1776]

I think it’s going to be really interesting if the Tigers are borderline wild card eligible at the trade deadline. Let’s say they win 5 of 7 games approaching the deadline, showing a little momentum.  Let’s assume that Flaherty is the same guy he’s been to date, health intact. 
Does Harris trade him?

[SoCalTiger]

How much is Flaherty worth on the open market ?  What would he command in free agency? Should we extend him and for how much ? 

[theroundsquare]

last year maeda was a 1.1 war pitcher and he got what, 2 years at $14M per?  last year flaherty was about 0.8 war and got 1 year at $14M.  if flaherty keeps it up, he might be a 4 war player.  so probably over $22M per year, and could depend on length of contract