2024 DETROIT TIGERS REGULAR SEASON THREAD

[Tiger337]

 

Here it is by median instead of average:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-first-round-pick-worth-baseball-rivka-boord/

The title is wrong, but the chart shows the median by draft position. 

1st pick is 12.5

2nd pick is 7.5

After that, the typical pick is replacement level or barely above that.  

 

[gehringer_2]

1 hour ago, Tiger337 said:

 

Here it is by median instead of average:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-first-round-pick-worth-baseball-rivka-boord/

The title is wrong, but the chart shows the median by draft position. 

1st pick is 12.5

2nd pick is 7.5

After that, the typical pick is replacement level or barely above that.  

 

And yet most players in the league were not drafted 1 or 2 overall. So I guess the other way to interpret this would be that most mlb level talent isn’t obvious at draft time, so the teams other than the lucky 1st two in a given year that can find it will have a big advantage. And of course the other factor is that a lot of the total WAR generated in the league does not come from the domestic draft at all. 

Edited June 13 by gehringer_2

[casimir]

So, remind me, why was it necessary to lock up Colt Keith long term when this season was about evaluation?

[SoCalTiger]

6 hours ago, casimir said:

So, remind me, why was it necessary to lock up Colt Keith long term when this season was about evaluation?

That's good question. To add pressure to the player ? Create animosity and jealousy in the clubhouse ? To play him in the majors before he's ready. To show how clever you are ? 

I'm sorry for the negativity and I do support Harris and Hinch but not as blindly optimistically as once before. I'm just so tired of losing and I do not agree with the constant position changes that is for sure.

[Tigermojo]

14 minutes ago, SoCalTiger said:

That's good question. To add pressure to the player ? Create animosity and jealousy in the clubhouse ? To play him in the majors before he's ready. To show how clever you are ? 

I'm sorry for the negativity and I do support Harris and Hinch but not as blindly optimistically as once before. I'm just so tired of losing and I do not agree with the constant position changes that is for sure.

I'm fine with Keith's contract. What I don't understand is handing him the job at second when Ibanez already proved to be capable last year.

[TigerNation]

5 hours ago, Tigermojo said:

I'm fine with Keith's contract. What I don't understand is handing him the job at second when Ibanez already proved to be capable last year.

Because Keiths development is important to the organization long term and Ibanez is not.

[TigerNation]

11 hours ago, casimir said:

So, remind me, why was it necessary to lock up Colt Keith long term when this season was about evaluation?

Well it's a $28 million contract over 6 years, so there is no downside risk. The contract will have zero impact on any decision making going forward if Keith is a total bust.

[Tiger337]

It was a great contract.  I just wonder if they may have rushed him to the majors because of it.  I know he doesn't look as bad at the plate as some others, but his performance has been awful.  

[SeattleMike]

40 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

It was a great contract.  I just wonder if they may have rushed him to the majors because of it.  I know he doesn't look as bad at the plate as some others, but his performance has been awful.  

Interestingly he has the same xwOBA as Canha, at .306. Yet Canha has a xOBA almost 80 points higher. Keith's actual production has been abysmal for sure. But under the hood doesn't it look quite so bad. Still feel good about his career prospects. 

[casimir]

50 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

It was a great contract.  I just wonder if they may have rushed him to the majors because of it.  I know he doesn't look as bad at the plate as some others, but his performance has been awful.  

Yes, it’s possible he was rushed.  He’s only 22, has only 300 PAs at AAA (which were good).

Its a great contract if he’s worthy of being a starter.  If he flames out, it’s a bit of a waste, although not to the magnitude as some other contracts (Martinez part 2, the back half of Cabrera’s contract, Baez, Zimmermann).

[Tenacious D]

I don’t see where Keith was rushed.  He was a dominant player at AAA.  How much more development would he have benefited from?  If there is anything to question, it’s should he be sent down to Toledo to work on anything?

[gehringer_2]

3 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

I don’t see where Keith was rushed.  He was a dominant player at AAA.  How much more development would he have benefited from?  If there is anything to question, it’s should he be sent down to Toledo to work on anything?

right - the big problem that no-one has a good answer for is that the gulf between AAA and MLB keeps growing larger, so  projecting hitting success in promoted players and preparing those players for what they will see in the ML are both suffering.

[casimir]

7 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

right - the big problem that no-one has a good answer for is that the gulf between AAA and MLB keeps growing larger, so  projecting hitting success in promoted players and preparing those players for what they will see in the ML are both suffering.

So what is going on with the jump between AAA and MLB being that much more difficult?  A residual result due to the COVID hiccup?  Does the reduction of minor leagues factor in?  Is it the undesired byproduct of the current state of baseball strategy?

[gehringer_2]

10 minutes ago, casimir said:

So what is going on with the jump between AAA and MLB being that much more difficult?  A residual result due to the COVID hiccup?  Does the reduction of minor leagues factor in?  Is it the undesired byproduct of the current state of baseball strategy?

IDK. Aside from any/all of the above, I would guess the combination of the increase in the injury wastage rate and the expansion of pitching staffs/bullpens has simply drained AAA of every even remotely competent arm. Consider that in January we thought the Mudhens would have a kickass staff whereas they're actually pretty bad. At some point you overrun the population's ability to keep the pipeline full. With US youth baseball in decline and Latin America fully exploited, where are more arms supposed to come from? Which goes back to the MiLB contraction issue, Even if the players are theoretically out there (which I don't take as a given), if you narrow the mouth of the filter, you can't catch as many.

Edited June 14 by gehringer_2

[Tigermojo]

Probably injuries as well and some of the most talented pitchers just bypass AAA.

[LongLiveMaroth]

 

[LongLiveMaroth]

25 minutes ago, Tigermojo said:

Probably injuries as well and some of the most talented pitchers just bypass AAA.

I think the shrinking of the minors has affected things more than expected. When they shrank the amount of players you could have and got rid of the short-season leagues it removed spots for some of the AAAA pitchers that used to fill the upper minors. When you have a limited set of players you can have as an org you will probably save more for spaces for players with untapped potential rather than a 28-29 year old journeyman.  

[Tenacious D]

1 hour ago, LongLiveMaroth said:

 

Thanks for sharing.  I suspect average game attendance increases significantly during the summer months with school out.  Marketing in baseball is atrocious—the Tigers are really bad.  They don’t grasp what they need to do to expand.  Running commercials on Bally of an old couple wearing face paint to games is the last thing they should be doing if you’re trying to make the game more relevant and appealing to a younger, more diverse audience.

(full disclosure—I tried valiantly to get an interview for their VP of Marketing opening they had open last year.  They were only considering candidates with relevant experience, which is the absolute worst approach they could have taken).

[Toddwert]

43 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

Thanks for sharing.  I suspect average game attendance increases significantly during the summer months with school out.  Marketing in baseball is atrocious—the Tigers are really bad.  They don’t grasp what they need to do to expand.  Running commercials on Bally of an old couple wearing face paint to games is the last thing they should be doing if you’re trying to make the game more relevant and appealing to a younger, more diverse audience.

(full disclosure—I tried valiantly to get an interview for their VP of Marketing opening they had open last year.  They were only considering candidates with relevant experience, which is the absolute worst approach they could have taken).

dont forget the 1984 4oth season weekend I'm surprised they havent beat us over the head with and the Jim Leyland Celebration

[1776]

“Running commercials on Bally of an old couple wearing face paint to games is the last thing they should be doing if you’re trying to make the game more relevant and appealing to a younger, more diverse audience.”

———

Winning is what will make a difference at the gate. Eight year rebuilds probably don’t get younger fans excited. Until this organization can put a couple of winning and competitive seasons on the field, I don’t think things will change much at the gate. 

[Tigeraholic1]

1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

Thanks for sharing.  I suspect average game attendance increases significantly during the summer months with school out.  Marketing in baseball is atrocious—the Tigers are really bad.  They don’t grasp what they need to do to expand.  Running commercials on Bally of an old couple wearing face paint to games is the last thing they should be doing if you’re trying to make the game more relevant and appealing to a younger, more diverse audience.

(full disclosure—I tried valiantly to get an interview for their VP of Marketing opening they had open last year.  They were only considering candidates with relevant experience, which is the absolute worst approach they could have taken).

The Uncle Terry ones are fantastic tho.

[Toddwert]

7 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

The Uncle Terry ones are fantastic tho.

you misspelled horrible

[kdog]

Hinch's interview on 971 earlier in the week...he indicated that there are not many young hitters who are succeeding in their first mlb year. I didn't have a chance to look at evidence. But it makes sense given the spin and velocity difference between MLB and AAA. 

[tiger2022]

3 hours ago, 1776 said:

“Running commercials on Bally of an old couple wearing face paint to games is the last thing they should be doing if you’re trying to make the game more relevant and appealing to a younger, more diverse audience.”

———

Winning is what will make a difference at the gate. Eight year rebuilds probably don’t get younger fans excited. Until this organization can put a couple of winning and competitive seasons on the field, I don’t think things will change much at the gate. 

Growing up in the 90s, I had absolutely zero interest in following the Tigers and I played baseball constantly.  The team was typically the worst or at the bottom of the league every year.  Why would I want to waste my time watching a garbage product?

[Tigeraholic1]

2 hours ago, Toddwert said:

you misspelled horrible

Funny thing is my family outside of Michigan say that he deff talks with a Michigan accent. Michigan folks have don't even realize they have an accent