2024 DETROIT TIGERS REGULAR SEASON THREAD

[Tiger337]

2 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

the other question is whether the Yankees even care how far over the threshold they are - the franchise has money to burn.

I'm not exactly sure how it works, but I think they could also defer a lot of the money like the Dodgers did with Ohtani.  

[4hzglory]

3 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I'm not exactly sure how it works, but I think they could also defer a lot of the money like the Dodgers did with Ohtani.  

They can defer cash, but the luxury tax is based on AAV

[Tiger337]

4 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

They can defer cash, but the luxury tax is based on AAV

But if they defer it long enough, doesn't that lower the AAV?

[4hzglory]

21 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

But if they defer it long enough, doesn't that lower the AAV?

It does a bit-based on a calculator MLB uses.  Ohtani’s AAV for luxury tax purposes is $46 mil instead of the $70 mil it would be with no deferral, and that’s with him deferring $680 of the $700 million, and having those deferred payments in years 11-20.

Without knowing the exact calculation, if Soto signs for $50 mil/yr for 12 years, and defers half of it, for another 10 years, he’s still going to have around $40 mil AAV.  I doubt anyone is willing to only get $2 mil/yr through the playing portion of the contract like Ohtani.  His outside earnings are so much greater.

Edited September 10 by 4hzglory

[SeattleMike]

21 hours ago, papalawrence said:

Tigers are 35-21 when Meadows starts. Some of that's a fluke, but it speaks to all that he brings to the games

Tigers tied with Houston for best record in AL over last 70 games (basically last 50% of season played to date). Also tied for best AL record since July 1. Also from August 1. They have done this with one of the youngest teams in MLB. To think that it’s premature to invest heavily in the team starting next year is, frankly, malpractice. The opportunity is there. I hope Illitch/Harris seize it. 

[Tiger337]

2 minutes ago, SeattleMike said:

Tigers tied with Houston for best record in AL over last 70 games (basically last 50% of season played to date). Also tied for best AL record since July 1. Also from August 1. They have done this with one of the youngest teams in MLB. To think that it’s premature to invest heavily in the team starting next year is, frankly, malpractice. The opportunity is there. I hope Illitch/Harris seize it. 

yeah, It is time to go for it.  

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, Tiger337 said:

I'm not exactly sure how it works, but I think they could also defer a lot of the money like the Dodgers did with Ohtani.  

Here is Ohtani's Spotrac page. Sportrac says the AAV for the playing years is found by taking the Net Present Value of the total contract and dividing it by the playing years (the first ten in this case). The NPV of the $700M over 20yrs is $461M so the AAV is $46M/yr. I'm not sure what the luxury tax numbers in the deferred part the chart are supposed to mean. They don't say what interest rate is used and I haven't bothered to try and back it out but $461M seems like a reasonable NPV for that deal. (EDIT: the int rate for the NPV calc is just a hair over 3.0% or more likely exactly 3% and there is some fee or adjustment not in my calc)

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/24661/shohei-ohtani

NPV Table for Ohtani contract:

	intRate	3.00%
Year	Yearly Payout	NPV
1	2,000,000	2,000,000
2	2,000,000	1,941,748
3	2,000,000	1,885,192
4	2,000,000	1,830,283
5	2,000,000	1,776,974
6	2,000,000	1,725,218
7	2,000,000	1,674,969
8	2,000,000	1,626,183
9	2,000,000	1,578,818
10	2,000,000	1,532,833
11	68,000,000	50,598,386
12	68,000,000	49,124,647
13	68,000,000	47,693,832
14	68,000,000	46,304,691
15	68,000,000	44,956,011
16	68,000,000	43,646,612
17	68,000,000	42,375,352
18	68,000,000	41,141,118
19	68,000,000	39,942,833
20	68,000,000	38,779,450
total	700,000,000	462,135,150

 

Edited September 10 by gehringer_2

[casimir]

8 hours ago, SeattleMike said:

Tigers tied with Houston for best record in AL over last 70 games (basically last 50% of season played to date). Also tied for best AL record since July 1. Also from August 1. They have done this with one of the youngest teams in MLB. To think that it’s premature to invest heavily in the team starting next year is, frankly, malpractice. The opportunity is there. I hope Illitch/Harris seize it. 

This.

The question I have about this streak is the pitching.  Is this sustainable?  I didn't think it would be for this long.  Personally I still think they need to add an upper rotation SP and a lower rotation SP to a mix of Skubal, Olson, and Mize.  Guys like Montero, Gipson-Long, Manning, Jobe, and Madden are either in the BP or on call in Toledo.  Jobe and hopefully Madden are on the rise.  The others are just depth, and that's fine.  And maybe both of those FA SPs are in the forms of what we've seen with Lorenzen and Flaherty, one year deals to a couple of guys that are trying to recapture their careers.

The offense is interesting.  Sure, they need RHH, and it probably fits better on the IF.  But where exactly?  Are they done with Torkelson?  Are Keith and Jung really entrenched at their current positions?  Can they upgrade everyday SS and how do they handle Baez?

[RatkoVarda]

Harris has added 2 SPs each winter, so IMO he does so again; 1 established guy, 1 fixer-upper. But, he must get a power reliever (or 2).

Top 13 batters w/no changes: Rogers/Dingler, Tork, Keith, Sweeney/Baez, Jung/Ibanez, Greene/Meadows/Carpenter, Vierling, Malloy.

Shopping list/areas to improve

1B - replace Tork, or have someone who can slide to 1B if he flops again

SS - need to find someone better than Kreidler if you want to replace Baez

3B - Jung's approach is solid, but 0 HRs and iffy D so far

DH - Malloy is crushing LHP but probably not enough to offset defensive limitations

C Walker, W Adames, A Bregman, M Chapman, T O'Neill, A Santander are FAs who would provide real impact.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand (1B/3B/DH) and Oswald Peraza (SS) are some trade targets IMO. 

[RandyMarsh]

Jake Burger is another trade target for me, 28yr with big power from the right side that can handle 1st and 3rd. Also still has a couple years of control left. 

[Edman85]

Sportrac is rarely accurate.

[gehringer_2]

2 hours ago, casimir said:

Sure, they need RHH, and it probably fits better on the IF.  But where exactly? 

this is the interesting question. Assume you have a RHH at 1b whether it's Torkelson or a replacement - then what? You are playing Keith, Greene, Meadows pretty much full time and you hope you are playing Jung full time, and Carpenter is playing against RHP. So that leaves C and SS and those are about the hardest spots to find a power bat and a good RH OF is not going to want to come here to take the short side of a platoon with Carpenter. The hardheaded thing to do is trade Carpenter and find an everyday RH power OF.

Edited September 10 by gehringer_2

[gehringer_2]

17 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Sportrac is rarely accurate.

but which part is questionable? I was only interested in AAV calc. In Ohtani's case the payment structure has been pretty widely publicized.

The other notable thing is that as huge as Ohtani's deal seems, if you took them both all back to 2008 dollars we probably paid Cabrera almost as much. IF Ohtani can return to the mound he's a bargain.

Edited September 10 by gehringer_2

[casimir]

41 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

Harris has added 2 SPs each winter, so IMO he does so again; 1 established guy, 1 fixer-upper. But, he must get a power reliever (or 2).

Top 13 batters w/no changes: Rogers/Dingler, Tork, Keith, Sweeney/Baez, Jung/Ibanez, Greene/Meadows/Carpenter, Vierling, Malloy.

Shopping list/areas to improve

1B - replace Tork, or have someone who can slide to 1B if he flops again

SS - need to find someone better than Kreidler if you want to replace Baez

3B - Jung's approach is solid, but 0 HRs and iffy D so far

DH - Malloy is crushing LHP but probably not enough to offset defensive limitations

C Walker, W Adames, A Bregman, M Chapman, T O'Neill, A Santander are FAs who would provide real impact.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand (1B/3B/DH) and Oswald Peraza (SS) are some trade targets IMO. 

That's a good point about the relievers.  The bullpen could use some more swing and miss.

[casimir]

32 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

this is the interesting question. Assume you have a RHH at 1b whether it's Torkelson or a replacement - then what? You are playing Keith, Greene, Meadows pretty much full time and you hope you are playing Jung full time, and Carpenter is playing against RHP. So that leaves C and SS and those are about the hardest spots to find a power bat and a good RH OF is not going to want to come here to take the short side of a platoon with Carpenter. The hardheaded thing to do is trade Carpenter and find an everyday RH power OF.

Well, trading Carpenter and landing a RHH don't necessarily need to be directly tied to each other in one transaction.

[gehringer_2]

15 minutes ago, casimir said:

Well, trading Carpenter and landing a RHH don't necessarily need to be directly tied to each other in one transaction.

Right.

They brought Canha in last season but as more of a hedge - there was no expectation he would be an everyday player. He didn't produce much power and probably wouldn't have played as much as he did if Carpenter had been healthy. 

You could carry Malloy just to DH against LHP, but that seems poor use of roster spot. I wouldn't. And Malloy's nice platoon split is based on way too small a sample to plan anything on anyway. Also with Malloy it's too much based on walks. Your RHH in a LH heavy lineup have to hit for power to be useful because it's harder for a LH heavy line up to string hits together against LHP.

No team is going to be perfect, but to me they are going overboard with the left-handedness. They think it's a winning strategy. I like LH bats but I also believe you can have too much of a good thing. Balance is better.

Edited September 10 by gehringer_2

[oblong]

Do you think it's a strategy or just how things worked out based on who was available, who was here, and who has been performing?

[Longgone]

2 minutes ago, oblong said:

Do you think it's a strategy or just how things worked out based on who was available, who was here, and who has been performing?

All of the above 

[chasfh]

14 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

I want Soto.  And, no, I’m not trying to be funny.  Can the Yankees really pay him what it will take, along with all of their other massive contracts?  This is the one time we should open up our wallet and pay him whatever it will take.  He’s still very young, athletic and a generational talent.

Figure it out, Scott.

Maybe Harris could move the team to New York or LA or Miami? That might help ...

[romad1]

46 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

Right.

They brought Canha in last season but as more of a hedge - there was no expectation he would be an everyday player. He didn't produce much power and probably wouldn't have played as much as he did if Carpenter had been healthy. 

You could carry Malloy just to DH against LHP, but that seems poor use of roster spot. I wouldn't. And Malloy's nice platoon split is based on way too small a sample to plan anything on anyway. Also with Malloy it's too much based on walks. Your RHH in a LH heavy lineup have to hit for power to be useful because it's harder for a LH heavy line up to string hits together against LHP.

No team is going to be perfect, but to me they are going overboard with the left-handedness. They think it's a winning strategy. I like LH bats but I also believe you can have too much of a good thing. Balance is better.

I've been playing MLB the Show as the current Tiger roster and man... the LHH disadvantage against a LHP is real.  Its weird but somehow real.   Jace Jung and Colt Keith do appear unfazed by it though (in the sim). 

 

[gehringer_2]

Just now, oblong said:

Do you think it's a strategy or just how things worked out based on who was available, who was here, and who has been performing?

They have talked about liking LHH because there is more RHP, but I will grant they probably didn't anticipate getting this LH heavy. Maybe Dingler will eventually hit. People have hope for Malloy but I'm a skeptic there.  There isn't a lot on the horizon in the way of RHH hitters in the system - Lee, and Liranzo is a SH who appears stronger as RHH, Campos?

[gehringer_2]

5 minutes ago, romad1 said:

I've been playing MLB the Show as the current Tiger roster and man... the LHH disadvantage against a LHP is real.  Its weird but somehow real.   Jace Jung and Colt Keith do appear unfazed by it though (in the sim). 

 

Guys from either side with small platoon splits have always been the holy grail.

[oblong]

10 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said:

They have talked about liking LHH because there is more RHP, but I will grant they probably didn't anticipate getting this LH heavy. Maybe Dingler will eventually hit. People have hope for Malloy but I'm a skeptic there.  There isn't a lot on the horizon in the way of RHH hitters in the system - Lee, and Liranzo is a SH who appears stronger as RHH, Campos?

I think they are just selling the current situation rather than saying "Well the guys we tried stink..."  Always talk up your current group as if that's what you wanted.  Until you move them.  Be "happy" for who you have for the "ball club".

[RatkoVarda]

vs LHP

Rogers was a real weapon last year; tanked this year

Baez had a 830 OPS his first year - he has cratered

Tork is actually the same 830 OPS

Malloy SSS is doing well

Veirling (like Canha and Kelly) has no strong splits

need to find some RH power for next year obvi

[Graterol]

Assuming 13 position players:

OF: Greene, Meadows, Carp, Vierling locks

IF: Jung, Keith locks (I say Jung because Vierling can take over/platoon if he doesn’t develop).

Catcher: Dingler and Rogers locks

Need a full time 1B and SS. 
 

Bench: Ibanez fits this team perfect, given ability to play 2B and 3B and platoon with Carp. Not perfect player but good fit.

Need someone who can play shortstop. McKinstry is underrated (1.3 WAR) and Sweeney also fits best on bench. Both probably redundant on a playoff team. Worst  case is one is starting SS if no FA/trade.

Need another OF that can play some defense. Perez not a perfect player but solid roster fit. Would be great for him to (re)develop at 2B.

Malloy and Tork both negative WAR, brutal defense, and in the case of Tork decline BB rate, avg EV, and increasing K rate. Both only fit as a PH and platoon 1B/DH against lefties. Would need to drop someone like Perez, go short on OF, to roster someone like that.

Long way of me saying that neither Tork nor Malloy should be on the roster, unless we roll with Tork at 1B (god help us) or think we can drop someone like a Perez and roll with a RH bat that can’t field.