gehringer_2 Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 4 hours ago, Shelton said: Maybe they do suck and we’ve just gotten very lucky and FG is right. LOL - that's pretty much what every Tiger fan is probably holding their breath about! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 3 hours ago, Tigermojo said: Isn't it really tough for the projections to predict what young players will do? absolutely. You can't blame any prediction system for inaccuracy about something which is fundamentally unpredictable. Statistics are only meaningful if the thing you are measuring has some kind of consistency. A team full of so many rookies/2nd year guys/redesigned pitchers etc., plus a manager who has decided to play by a whole different set of roster rules, is full of unknown deviations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 10 hours ago, oblong said: You guys are talking over my head about things I don't concern myself with.... but how does the Tigers use of the opener situation cloud the ability to do these projections? They don't know who's going to be pitching those games as opposed to having an idea that the starter in a normal rotation probably goes 5+. Does that fit in? I think they try to guess how many innings each pitcher will throw the rest of the way regardless of how they are used. I would guess that in systems which project player performance, pitching one inning as an opener is the same as pitching one inning in middle relief. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 9 hours ago, Shelton said: FG system doesn’t actually use a projected starter for these projections. But they do use an overall projected playing time for each pitcher on the staff based on how many games are left. I don’t think this calculation, especially for the tigers, is very accurate. Objectively speaking, these guys should suck, and their system reflects that. Maybe they do suck and we’ve just gotten very lucky and FG is right. I think some of their pitchers are not as good as they have shown the past several weeks, but I also think Hinch/Fetter have utilized the staff in a way that maximizes their abilities. This is something that would not show up in the FG system. I don't know if it should or not. I think their pitcher utilization has been a real asset, but I am also not sure how long the success from it can be sustained. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 12 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: I think some of their pitchers are not as good as they have shown the past several weeks, but I also think Hinch/Fetter have utilized the staff in a way that maximizes their abilities. This is something that would not show up in the FG system. I don't know if it should or not. I think their pitcher utilization has been a real asset, but I am also not sure how long the success from it can be sustained. Posters have identified that there are potential weaknesses in both FG player based and BR team based approaches. I guess you would have to look at their historical success to judge if either has proven to be more accurate over time. I think the player based projection approach potentially brings more input data the analysis so on that logical grounds you could argue it could be superior - and even more so for a veteran team, but arguments like that may or may not hold in the real world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger2022 Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 Too bad the Tigers don't have a starter like Jack Flaherty down the stretch. That would be beneficial. But hey, cutting salary so Ilitch can save money and getting a minor leaguer who will probably never see Detroit, probably worth it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 4 minutes ago, tiger2022 said: Too bad the Tigers don't have a starter like Jack Flaherty down the stretch. That would be beneficial. But hey, cutting salary so Ilitch can save money and getting a minor leaguer who will probably never see Detroit, probably worth it. LOL - If the Tigers come within a game or two here but miss, and then end up falling back for a couple of years and don't get this close, Harris will never live it down. I hope that isn't likely, but you never know..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenacious D Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 16 minutes ago, tiger2022 said: Too bad the Tigers don't have a starter like Jack Flaherty down the stretch. That would be beneficial. But hey, cutting salary so Ilitch can save money and getting a minor leaguer who will probably never see Detroit, probably worth it. You mean our starting SS and top 100 MLB prospect? At least do some research. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger2022 Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 Sorry, but the starting SS isn't lighting the world on fire and how many top 100 prospects end up sucking? Probably about 85 of them. But who needs a top of the rotation mlb pitcher? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 35 minutes ago, gehringer_2 said: LOL - If the Tigers come within a game or two here but miss, and then end up falling back for a couple of years and don't get this close, Harris will never live it down. I hope that isn't likely, but you never know..... Flaherty has not pitched as well since the trade. It could be becaue he needs Fetter or it could be that he is tired or not totally healthy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger337 Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 12 hours ago, Shelton said: Yeah, to me it’s the sanity check. It’s easy to see two teams tied and think it’s close to 50/50. Obviously a team ahead in the standings has a better chance. But I think it is valuable and fun to know that a team might have a 1 in 5 chance of getting it done vs a 1 in 10 chance. a Seattle fan can look at say “crap we gotta go 8-1 and hope x y and z happen to have a chance.” I think it’s good to know that such a scenario might happen once every 20 seasons. I can see that. FG trying to predict what teams will do over the last week based on projections doesn't do much for me, but the BR system (which I didn't know much about) seems more useful for curiousity sake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 27 minutes ago, Tiger337 said: Flaherty has not pitched as well since the trade. It could be becaue he needs Fetter or it could be that he is tired or not totally healthy. Yeah - he's down off his Det performance, looks like he is walking more and K'ing less. Still, less than a hit and inning and more than a K per inning and the Dodgers have won 6 of his 9 starts so it's not like he's been some kind of liability either! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports_Freak Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 Taking scoreboard watching to a whole new level. Watching Boston- Minnesota on TV and KC-SF on my phone. Yeah, don't bug me...😅 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IdahoBert Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 Boston and Minnesota tied bottom of the ninth with the Red Sox coming up and it looks like it’s drizzling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IdahoBert Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 The Red Sox are smiling like they’ve already won. Maybe they’re just happy guys in general Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IdahoBert Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 Red Sox with a runner on third two outs bottom of the ninth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IdahoBert Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 going into extra innings Red Sox strand the runner at third and strike out for the 16th time in the game, the most strikeouts for them this year, and they did it against a Minnesota pitcher with an 8.18 ERA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 1 minute ago, Tiger337 said: BR system (which I didn't know much about) seems more useful for curiousity sake From reading the their description it has the advantage that it's simple and totally agnostic, it only looks at what a team has actually done as a team based on run differentials and SOS and in direct answer to my question about how far back in time you go to get the best estimate - they regressed on that question to come up with 100 games as the best fit to their dataset. I think the most obvious weakness on a casual view is that since it's purely team based, within the 100 game moving window it assumes a team is a constant. So it has no awareness of roster changes, particularly deadline dealing, which can be pretty huge (think about the impact JV had when he went to Houston!). I guess you can look at it as the concept that is trying to get as much as it can from the least required data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports_Freak Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 7 minutes ago, IdahoBert said: going into extra innings Red Sox strand the runner at third and strike out for the 16th time in the game, the most strikeouts for them this year, and they did it against a Minnesota pitcher with an 8.18 ERA. Sox can win with a run in 10th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IdahoBert Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 6 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said: Sox can win with a run in 10th. And they choke. One guy thrown out at home then with runners on second and third and two outs and they strike out. It’s nice to see other teams choke and suck. I never watch other teams. It happens a lot more often. It doesn’t only happen to us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports_Freak Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 SF sucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports_Freak Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 Bottom of the 9th, SF up 2-0 and they bring in some clown who can't throw strikes. Over an 11 ERA in his last 7 games. 1.65 WHIP. Walks the 1st guy and falls behind 2-0 on the next one. Are they trying to lose? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports_Freak Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 Again, Boston can win it with a run. Don't bunt this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gehringer_2 Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 (edited) Twins fail to move the running in the 11th. Door is open, BoSox just have to walk through. EDIT: FAIL Edited September 21 by gehringer_2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IdahoBert Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 Red Sox get a third strike rung up and it probably was a ball, so now they go to the bottom of the 11th and the Red Sox have a chance to strike out three more times I guess. They’ve already struck out 17 times tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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