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2024 DETROIT TIGERS REGULAR SEASON THREAD


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17 hours ago, gehringer_2 said:

Posters have identified that there are potential weaknesses in both FG player based and BR team based approaches. I guess you would have to look at their historical success to judge if either has proven to be more accurate over time.

What point in time would you pick, though? Because the odds change every day from March through September based on how the season evolves. So by the end they are practically 100% right

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1 hour ago, chasfh said:

What point in time would you pick, though? Because the odds change every day from March through September based on how the season evolves. So by the end they are practically 100% right

i suppose they could remain 50/50 right to the last game couldn't they? Or maybe we aren't talking about the same thing? I don't know what is under the covers in FG's system in terms of how often it updates projections but I assume it must at least look at who the remaining games are against so the model has be updating for that if nothing else. The BR model, being a running average run differential method, updates with every game played.

But when I said "more accurate over time" i didn't mean to refer to the convergence toward an end-point but which system tended to give better predictions over multiple seasons. say at some arbitrary date of interest within a season like the ASB or Sept 1 - or even opening day, though that is probably pretty worthless in any system!

Edited by gehringer_2
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1 minute ago, gehringer_2 said:

i suppose they could remain 50/50 right to the last game couldn't they? Or maybe we aren't talking about the same thing? I don't know what is under the covers in FG's system in terms of how often it updates projections but I assume it must at least look at who the remaining games are against so the model has be updating for that if nothing else. The BR model, being a running average run differential method, updates with every game played.

But when I said "more accurate over time" i didn't mean to refer to the convergence toward an end-point but which system tended to give better predictions over multiple seasons. say at some arbitrary date of interest withing a season like the ASB or Sept 1 - or even opening day, though that is probably pretty worthless in any system!

The closer we get to the end of the season, the more accurate the projections would tend to be. That's what I mean. There's almost certainly a lot more divergence between say, FanGraphs and Reference, on April 1 than there is on September 27. That's why I'm asking, which same point in time across X number of seasons would you pick to compare them?

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14 minutes ago, chasfh said:

The closer we get to the end of the season, the more accurate the projections would tend to be. That's what I mean. There's almost certainly a lot more divergence between say, FanGraphs and Reference, on April 1 than there is on September 27. That's why I'm asking, which same point in time across X number of seasons would you pick to compare them?

Ah...

ok - I suppose if BR is using a 100 game running avg then i don't see much point in looking at their result before 100 games when all the data is from the current season. Game 100 was the 3rd week of July this season so i would think it would be fair to compare on Aug 1 and then maybe Sept 1. Seems to be less point to the exercise later than that. And of course neither system predicted anything for the Tigers this year on Sept 1 - which still has a good chance of being correct.🤷‍♀️

Edited by gehringer_2
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