4/28/24 1:40PM Royals @ Tigers

[1984Echoes]

10 hours ago, Jim Cowan said:

No, it wasn't you

Yes...

It WAS me: June-2022:

On 6/1/2022 at 11:09 PM, Tenacious D said:

Folks, I’m gonna need a ruling on Wenceel.  Only 22, so he’s not old for High A, and on pace for a 20-20 season. Legit?

On 6/2/2022 at 12:52 PM, 1984Echoes said:

His talent has always been legit.

He was the Tigers' first "big" International signing when they spent $550K in 2016 on him. He's always had speed (between last year and this year he's stolen 34 bases and been caught 3 times...) and a hit tool. He's had flashes before this year too...

But, as usual, you never know how a prospect is actually going to develop, legit or not. He seems to be filling out and starting to produce nice results with some added power. As opposed to some high profile 2nd rounders (Meadows, Rivera) flopping because their ability to hit a baseball at the higher levels is non-existent.

Can he sustain it as he rises up the ranks...?

I think we'll see on that shortly...

[1984Echoes]

Cruzer is the other guy who's been high on Wenceel as a prospect since he was signed.

[Tiger337]

But you and Cruzer love prospects!  You are high on almost all of them at some point.  

[LongLiveMaroth]

5 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

But you and Cruzer love prospects!  You are high on almost all of them at some point.  

The Cheech and Chong of prospect evaluation 😅

[casimir]

23 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Yes...

It WAS me: June-2022:

Actually, it was Jim's post I was thinking of.

But to add to it, sure, I am not surprised you were optimistic about ENTER PROSPCT NAME HERE.

Edited April 30 by casimir

[1984Echoes]

I have my fair share of low expectations on certain prospects.

You're mischaracterizing me.

But have at it if it gets your jollies off.

[chasfh]

1 minute ago, 1984Echoes said:

I have my fair share of low expectations on certain prospects.

Examples?

[1984Echoes]

6 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Examples?

Lee asked me this last year or the year before:

I rattled off a dozen ranked prospects (in the Tigers system) that I wasn't high on. I don't remember the names. Parker Meadows (who was struggling badly at the Mendoza line his whole minor league career, at that time), Daniel Cabrera (same). Garrett Hill, who I didn't think much of. In fact, Lee took Garrett Hill and I took Wentz, IIRC. I don't remember all the other guys but it was a decent list and, obviously, not memorable (prospects).

I can do the same with the current top 30. List all the guys I think won't make it or will crap out, one way or the other.

Would that make everyone happy?

Edited April 30 by 1984Echoes

[casimir]

Just now, 1984Echoes said:

Would that make everyone happy?

The Tigers are 16-12.  Who is unhappy right now?

[1984Echoes]

1 minute ago, casimir said:

The Tigers are 16-12.  Who is unhappy right now?

Someone who is being MISCHARACTERIZED.

No one likes being mischaracterized.

Now I'm Cheech, or Chong?

Awesome.

[chasfh]

6 minutes ago, 1984Echoes said:

Lee asked me this last year or the year before:

I rattled off a dozen ranked prospects (in the Tigers system) that I wasn't high on. I don't remember the names. Parker Meadows (who was struggling badly at the Mendoza line his whole minor league career, at that time), Daniel Cabrera (same). Garrett Hill, who I didn't think much of. In fact, Lee took Garrett Hill and I took Wentz, IIRC. I don't remember all the other guys but it was a decent list and, obviously, not memorable (prospects).

I can do the same with the current top 30. List all the guys I think won't make it or will crap out, one way or the other.

Would that make everyone happy?

I would be interested in your take on the current top 30.

[1984Echoes]

1 minute ago, chasfh said:

I would be interested in your take on the current top 30.

Gimme a little time on this one as I have a couple meetings this afternoon.

Once I'm off work after 5-5:30-ish I'll go through the list...

[Tiger337]

I predict that most of the top 30 will crap out or get injured before achieving significant success in MLB.  All we need is a few good ones though.  

[casimir]

7 minutes ago, Tiger337 said:

I predict that most of the top 30 will crap out or get injured before achieving significant success in MLB.  All we need is a few good ones though.  

Seems the most likely scenario.

[casimir]

2 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

Someone who is being MISCHARACTERIZED.

No one likes being mischaracterized.

Now I'm Cheech, or Chong?

Awesome.

Whatever you do, never, ever admit to your own foibles.  Always be defensive.  Play it just like your avatar would.  Right down to the CAPITALIZED letters.

Edited April 30 by casimir

[Longgone]

4 hours ago, 1984Echoes said:

Someone who is being MISCHARACTERIZED.

No one likes being mischaracterized.

Now I'm Cheech, or Chong?

Awesome.

Chong, definitely Chong

[1984Echoes]

I’m going to start with my summary first:

Bottom 15: I believe we have 4 real prospects: a reliever (Mattison), Wenceel, and two guys who are a long ways away and have to get through learning curve struggles (Campos, but I still believe in him) and/ or a possible lack of defensive position (Briceno, but I love his bat too much and it’s still possible he could stick at a position).

Top 15: I see two non-prospects and 13 guys I like, more than 2/3 (on a WAG) of which will crap out…

Which consists of:

6 middle relievers (maybe one or two of these guys could develop something extra (3^rd pitch/ better control/ whatever) to make it as a 4^th or 5^th starter… Or 6^th starter parked at Toledo… I don’t see anything better than that): Madden, Flores, Montero, Melton, Hurter, SGL.

One Jake Rogers 2.0 (Dingler).

One DH-only who I don’t really care for position-wise… but he may be a good guy and a useful bat so I won’t write him off entirely (Malloy)

One potential ace (who is struggling a bit, currently: Jobe)

4 position players who I like a lot, with various degrees of “in Detroit” or “Close to Detroit” or “a long ways to go”: (Keith, Jung, Clark & McGonigle). I hope none of these guys crap out.

That’s my summary.

[1984Echoes]

Tigers Top 30 prospects (according to MLB):

30. Trei Cruz – Nice bloodlines but he hasn’t done anything in the minors. Mendoza line all the way up to AA Erie tells me not a prospect. Maybe a utility guy at best?

29. Izaac Pacheco – has power… but if the hit tool is Mendoza-line, power means nothing. Not enough here for me to be interested. Non-prospect unless he figures something out in the batters’ box.

28. Blake Dickerson – Paid the Padres $500K for him? 6’6” LH’er from 2023-12^th round (Padres) but no stats yet. If he does anything maybe he’ll pop up on everyone’s radar? But right now… nothing to see.

27. Tyler Mattison – I like his K-rate and K-BB-ratio. BB-rate is too high, but 13K’s to 4.3 BB’s = a 3-1 ratio. Never a starter, bullpen only candidate. But I like the high heat so I like Tyler Mattison.

26. Christian Santana – I actually like him. But… performance counts so with his below-the-Mendoza-line (so far) stat-line = not enough to be interesting, IMO. Still only 20, maybe he has time on his side?

25. Peyton Graham – Not enough here to be interesting, IMO.

24. Roberto Campos. I actually like him… but similar to Santana, performance counts. Sitting at a .720-ish OPS from the get-go, worse this year at .640 in a repeat-level W Mich. At this point not an interesting prospect. But he IS supposed to have more power and, at a still-young 21 at High-A? I don’t know, maybe I’ll just give him a vote of confidence and see if he can live up to it? Sure, I’ll put him on BOLD.

23. Dylan Smith – Just has never done anything for me to consider him a prospect. I liked the “idea” of him when he was drafted… but… nothing to see here IMO. 24 y.o. and struggling in high-A equals “will crap ou”, IMO.

22. Carson Rucker – only 19 years old so… I have no opinion until I can see something.

21. Eddys Leonard – Seems like he could be a bit useful as a utility guy but I don’t see anything more than that…

20. Wenceel Perez – Loved this guy since 2017.

19. Enrique Jimenez – Nothing here to grab the imagination.

18. Josue Briceno – I remember the signing but he sort of wasn’t on my radar; but he’s been hitting up a storm so maybe I need to pay more attention? Great BB-K-Rate ratio: ~12% BB rate (stateside) and 14% K-rate? Looks like a decently high hit tool as well (only in Low-A so far but only 19 in Low-A?!)? I’ll declare him a prospect even if the Org is uncertain if he can stay at Catcher. They’ve been trying him at 1^st too. But “have bat” means the Org will find him a spot somewhere, if he makes it all the way up. Long way to go… but I’ll give him a BOLD.

17. Max Anderson – He has a bat (hit tool), which is why Harris drafted him. But I don’t know what else there is… He’s not an ace fielder and looks more likely to be a DH-only? Not enough here to call out my interest… unless the bat starts to really smoke.

16. Paul Wilson – Trevor Wilson’s kid? Well that’s interesting. But the Org right now is working on him (so no stats) and he throws low-90’s but may have some projectable velocity as a 6’3” Lefty… But until we can see something, I won’t declare anything. Incomplete.

15. Brant Hurter - He’s a huge lefty 6’5” 250#’s but throws low 90’s so, not a power guy. Low walk rate is a plus. Really good slider as far as I know and a decent changeup… but he seems fringy to me so either a 5^th starter or a middle reliever. I think he ends up in the bullpen. Which is good enough to call him a prospect, right? I’ll BOLD him regardless, as a fringy bullpen/possible 5^th starter-type prospect.

14. Hao-Yu-Lee – Another decent bat acquired by Harris. But I don’t see a major leaguer here. Maybe a bench guy? But I also have a theory: Harris wants the high hit tool guys in the system, even if they never make it to MLB, because he wants these guys to influence OTHERS in the system… Have a prevalence of high hit tool guys who know how to take a walk… so to speak. But Lee is not a prospect… IMO.

13. Dillon Dingler – I thought he was supposed to have a higher hit tool… but, apparently, he does not. Still, he has the looks of another Jake Rogers (2.0) here: Big arm, good defensive catcher (not certain how Dingler ranks here, I know he was a work-in-process defensively), low batting average (if he’s a .240 hitter in MLB it’s probably good enough), with power but limited ability to get to the power (from the low contact rate…). A prospect here but not a high-end guy.

12. Justice Bigbie – I don’t know if he’s a prospect, or not. Had a nice year last year from High-A all the way up to AAA. But I just don’t feel he’ll be Carpenter 2.0. Another 19^th rounder… but I think that’s about it for the nice feel good story side. Maybe he gets some bench time in Detroit… But I just don’t feel there’s enough here to call him out as a prospect. So I won’t. If he gets some quality MLB time… good for him.

11. Troy Melton – He’s interesting as the Org has worked hard to develop him. Opposite of Hurter: a righty, mid-90’s and can reach for upper-90’s… but he has such a long way to go development-wise that I think I have to bucket him the same as Hurter: Maybe a 5^th starter, or even a 4^th is in his future, but more likely bullpen. It’s enough to call him a prospect though. BOLD him.

10. Sawyer Gipson-Long –Has some interesting characteristics and he pitched well last year at Erie (5-1 K-BB ratio 1.01 WHIP), and I know he pitched well for Detroit last year as a starter: 3.25 ERA 1.1 WHIP… I don’t know if he has the staying power to remain in the rotation though. Technically, he’s a prospect. And at least on a par with Hurter and Melton (only he’s “proved it” at a higher level, which is why he is ahead of them and “Top 10”): I don’t see him as hugely different though. So BOLD him. He’s good enough for Detroit so he’s good enough for me.

9. Wilmer Flores – Looks like another bullpen candidate to me. So technically, a prospect. BOLD him up.

8. Keider Montero – Another bullpen candidate, IMO. But he has a wicked curveball which may give him a rotation edge… except there are Detroit guys in front of him so I don’t see him getting there in the near future. A prospect: fringy 5^th starter/ bullpen?

7. Justyn-Henry Malloy – I’ll call him a prospect because of his bat; but I’m never enamored with DH-types. So, technically a prospect but certainly not a favorite of mine.

6. Kevin McGonigle – I love his hit tool. And he’s a decent fielder. Most likely won’t be able to stick at SS but that’s OK. First prospect since Briceno that I actually have high hopes for. I’m on his bandwagon.

5. Ty Madden – Another bullpen candidate with maybe a 5^th starter chance… I do have him ahead of the Montero/ Flores/ SGL/ Hurter crowd though. Melton may be just as good, or better, but with a much longer development curve, I think. Feel free to disagree… But I will make no judgement except: proof is in the pudding. He’ll show himself what level he can, or cannot attain. I will state that I am on his bandwagon… but he has an uncertain future (IMO).

4. Jace Jung – First guy I can look at as a high-end prospect that ALSO is nearly in Detroit. I’ll put him on a par with Keith: will probably struggle as he adjusts to MLB pitching, ultimately will prove to have an MLB bat, won’t be a spectacular fielder but will be good enough. If he’s good enough to take over any one position (2B, 3B, or even 1B if it comes to that…), I will be satisfied. I’m on his bandwagon.

3. Jackson Jobe – I still think he has ace material… but he’s struggling somewhat along the way. I’ll give him a vote of confidence: BOLD him.

2. Colt Keith – Has yet to prove he can hit in MLB well enough to own 2B as a starter. But I think his bat will heat up and he’ll prove out… We’ll see. BOLD him; I’m on his bandwagon.

1. Max Clark – A long ways away still… But I like what I see so far and will be patient as he goes through his learning curve… Bandwagon fan.

[1984Echoes]

3 hours ago, casimir said:

Whatever you do, never, ever admit to your own foibles.  Always be defensive.  Play it just like your avatar would.  Right down to the CAPITALIZED letters.

I am INFAMOUSLY defensive.

I resemble that remark.

But NOT the avatar... sorry... but... no. Just, no.