Grading the Detroit Lions Draft - In 2021

[Motown Bombers]

4 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

Here would be a sample deal to show what MB is saying.

Goff currently has a cap hit of $32.3 mil for 2024 with 22.3 in salary, 5 mil roster bonus and 5 mil prorated signing bonus.

A proposed 4 year $200 mil extension with $90 mil signing bonus and $125 mil guaranteed new money could look like something like this.  

If they add a void year, the signing bonus would get spread over 6 years - current 2024, 4 year extension, plus the 1 void year.  So the signing bonus allocation would be $15 mil per year.

2024:  convert $15 mil of his $27.3 mil salary/roster bonus to new signing bonus.  Cap hit would be $12.3 mil salary, $5 mil from previous signing bonus + $15 mil new signing bonus allocation for total cap hit of $32.3 mil - identical to current.

2025: Fully guaranteed salary of $15 mil + $15 mil signing bonus allocation for cap hit of $30 mil

2026:  Fully guaranteed salary of $20 mil + $15 mil signing bonus allocation for cap hit of $35 mil

2027:  Salary of $35 mil ($15 mil fully guaranteed - gets to the $125mil guaranteed new money) + $15 mil signing bonus allocation for cap hit of $50 mil

2028:  Salary of $40 mil + signing bonus allocation for cap hit of $55 mil

2029 void year:  signing bonus allocation of $15 mil for cap hit of $15 mil

Obviously they would have roster bonus'/other ways of adjusting the hits if they wanted more cap space in certain years, but this would also allow them to get out of the deal after 2026 if they had to for a dead money hit of $60 million which is $10 million more than what his 2027 cap number would be if they kept him, or they could spread it over 2 years and free up $20 million in 2027, $25 mil in 2028, and $15 mil in 2029.  If they cut him after 2027, they would have a dead money hit of $30 mil which if they didn't spread it over 2 years, would save them $25 mil on the cap  in 2028 and $15 mil in 2029.

 

This is just a lot to say/show that a 4 yr $200 mil extension can simply be structured to not cripple the cap.  The team would have many other roster bonuses/etc to further manipulate the cap numbers besides this.

This would be perfect. By the time his cap hit exceeds what it is now in 2027, the cap would have likely increased 3 times by then and other QBs are creeping into the $60 million per range. 

[Motown Bombers]

Things change so quickly in the NFL. In 2021 Goff's contract was considered so bad that the Rams had to attach a 1st round pick to make it go away. By the end of 2022, it was considered good value. 

[holygoat]

The assumption that many make about Goff is that he's only good because of his line and the weapons around him. Outside of a couple of guys, though, every QB is at the mercy of his line. As for his weapons, it's always just assumed that they make Goff better, and never the other way around. Gonna be interesting to see how well Josh Reynolds does in Denver this upcoming season.

[RedRamage]

On 4/28/2024 at 6:21 PM, Motor City Sonics said:

Because my theory is you can't get a feel for a player for at least 3 years (some say 4),  These are my grades for the 2021 Detroit Lions Draft.

1st Round -  Needs to be a major contributor by year 2

2nd Round -  Needs to be a starter or rotational guy (double-digit snaps per weeK)

3rd Round -  Needs to be a plus player.   

4th Round -  Need to be a depth player you can count on from time to time

5th Round - If they can at least contribute on Special Teams,  Fine

6th Round / 7th Round -  If they can stick with the team at all for a season, It's positive

 

ROUND 1 - OT PENEI SEWELL   A+     One of the best in the game 

ROUND 2 - DT  LEVI ONWUZURIKE   D    Injuries derailed him (but they knew about that when they took him)

ROUND 3 -  DT  ALIM McNEIL  A+   A bona fide runstopper with more athleticism than his physique.  

ROUND 3  CB  IFFY MELIFONWU  B   Was a ghost until middle of last year and then looked great.  Tough position to learn, it takes time.  Sample size is too small for an  A

ROUND 4  WR AMON-RA ST. BROWN  A+    One of the best receivers in football.  Mr. Reliable and a drive that fits this staff perfectly.  This guy is the heart of the team on the players side.  

ROUND 4  LB  DERRICK BARNES  B.   Like Iffy, it's a tough position to learn quickly but we finally saw flashes of what he could be and he should get better

ROUND 7 RB JAMAR JEFFERSON   B    He gets a B because of where he was drafted.  He made the team and made some plays.  Can't ask for much more from a 7th rounder, honestly.  

 

A-

 

This was the best Lions draft BY FAR in my memory (going back to about 1977, 78).   The only thing that prevents it from getting an A+ was they continued the tradition of bad 2nd round picks, but that seemed to get corrected the next year.   They covered their mistake by taking the same position in round 3.       I mean, 3 All-Pro level players.    If only they'd nailed the 2nd round in 2021.  

2024 left me a little puzzled, but so did last year. 

Trust In Brad

 

After looking at your 2022 draft grade I thought I'd revisit your 2021 grade. Honestly, I think all the grades given then are still accurate. Maybe you could bump up Barnes to a B+, but that's hard to say given the injury.